TimeformUS Weekend Plays: Sunday Stakes Previews at Saratoga and Del Mar

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: Sunday Stakes Previews at Saratoga and Del Mar

Forbidden Apple — Sat, 24 Aug 2013 03:40:39 GMT

Transparent is my Travers pick at 10-1 with NO Lasix. He was not nearly as sharp for the Curlin as he will be tomorrow. He overcame a layoff and a slow pace in the Curlin, he's ready now. With his athletic build I think he can stalk the pace and make a sweeping move to the wire. Another positive sign is that the McLaughlin barn has been on fire this week. My only concern is the jockey, I hope he learned something in the Curlin. Palice Malice and Moreno should give the needed pace that I'm looking for. Verrazano does not scare me at all. He always has an easy time of it up front and then looks great at the finish, not tomorrow.

Top 3 picks:

1)Transparent 2)Palice Malice 3)Orb

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: Sunday Stakes Previews at Saratoga and Del Mar

Forbidden Apple — Sat, 24 Aug 2013 03:24:36 GMT

Second and third again, I had doubles (Book Review & Villanesca w/ Parnelli). That must be at least the 40th horse of the meet that ran second for me.

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: Sunday Stakes Previews at Saratoga and Del Mar

Forbidden Apple — Sat, 24 Aug 2013 03:20:45 GMT

Rusty,

Iron Power broke like a turtle again at 8/5. I only used him is a few small doubles. My Happy Face looks primed for a win. I also like Let Em Shine, he has a big chance at winning. I bet Mentor Cane last time, but he has problems making turns. It's very odd that Shirref's also had Peace and Justice blow a turn in a race.

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: Sunday Stakes Previews at Saratoga and Del Mar

Plod Boy Phil — Fri, 23 Aug 2013 21:48:46 GMT

Friday Del Mar

R4) 2 Quinette exits back to back 'wrong side' runs following a fifteen week freshening. Drops into a field with plenty of Zip in the gate which may set things up nicely for her.

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: Sunday Stakes Previews at Saratoga and Del Mar

Little Bill — Fri, 23 Aug 2013 00:36:21 GMT

Ballerina- I had to laugh, check out the race/work pattern on Street Girl. Talk about wind her up and take a shot.

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: Sunday Stakes Previews at Saratoga and Del Mar

Rusty Weisner — Thu, 22 Aug 2013 21:55:48 GMT

Monarchos Matt,

I was very close to considering another Palace Malice/Orb exacta/trifecta, but for me the second time was the charm. Nevertheless I think PM is strong, and at least he splits the money with Verrazano. I think he could hold his Jim Dandy form or even improve off it: the Belmont had a deceptively low Beyer so he think he replicated it in the Jim Dandy, as this is his race of the year. With Verrazano I'm crossing my fingers that he does what Quality Road did in the Travers off the highest fig in his life. I'm not taking War Dancer: he's never won on dirt and his one dirt try was weaker than the turf efforts it was sandwiched between.

I'm going to stick with Let Em Shine. Sure, there's lots of speed, but for me that's hard to predict. Let's hope he runs the rest of them into the ground. In any case, I won't take any speed but him; on my alternate ticket I'll only take closers (Forty Tales' last winning effort was good, as I don't think it really set up for him the way the Woody Stephens did). In the Test I'll take that Lulu horse along with My Happy Face.

I'll play multiple P3 and P4 tickets, with my two singles PM and Let Em Shine; I'll need one of them to win. I'll only have two in R9.

I'm off for a short beach vacation. Good luck!

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: Sunday Stakes Previews at Saratoga and Del Mar

Monarchos Matt — Thu, 22 Aug 2013 20:43:47 GMT

Rusty,

I'm also going to try to beat Verrazano for the win. I still think Palace Malice's Jim Dandy was every bit as impressive as the Haskell was, Beyers be damned, and PM is proven over a distance of ground and has a far superior 10f pedigree. Perhaps Verrazano is just talented enough to get it done here, but at 2-1 (and likely less at post time if you ask me) I have to lean towards PM as the most likely winner(who might also be lower than his morning line, however...)

This leaves me right back where I was on the first Saturday in May. Orb still has the best figure of all at this distance and should get more pace to run at here than he did in either the Preakness or Belmont, with Moreno and Verrazano going at it early, and I think Romanash may be forced into that from the rail, with PM sitting just off of them in a good spot. The layoff doesn't bother me, and Shug seems confident. If he's 4-1 or higher I don't think you can leave him out when he's proven at the distance and fresh.

Underneath, the scariest horse to me is Transparent. He was one that I was very high on in the winter, and despite the DQ in his last, he was much the best in the stretch of the 9f Curlin. His pedigree suits for the distance and if he's back at full strength he could make things interesting. Obviously Will Take Charge is a must use underneath as well although I don't see him as a win candidate. Another horse that interests me at long odds is War Dancer, who has won at 10f on turf, and while his pedigree looks speed oriented, it also (importantly) suggests that he won't mind the switch to dirt.

I'll try to keep off the board entirely Golden Soul (off form since the Derby, which cost me the exacta and the tri and looks more and more like a fluke every time he runs), Moreno (like the pedigree but don't like the way he folded last time at a shorter distance) and Romanash (class jump, and worried about rail post).

Looking at something like this:

TRIFECTA:

Orb, Palace Malice/

Orb, Palace Malice, Verrazano/

Orb, Palace Malice, Verrazano, Transparent, Will Take Charge, War Dancer

And across the board $ on Orb if he's 4-1 or higher, which should hedge my investment if Verrazano wins the race and kills my Trifecta. And if Orb wins and the Tri hits, even better.

Not going to be a multi-race wager day for me, I think the King's Bishop is much more wide open than you do...Let Em Shine had Zee Bros to deal with last time but I still think he'll see more speed here than you think. It would be tough to talk me into singling him in a 14 horse race that is bound to have some speed, especially when Forty Tales seems to always find just enough ground late.

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: Sunday Stakes Previews at Saratoga and Del Mar

Rusty Weisner — Thu, 22 Aug 2013 19:47:32 GMT

I'm taking stand against Verrazano but not real enthusiastic about any of the others besides PM. Maybe Orb, WTC, Transparent and/or Romansh. I missed the boat on WTC at 17-1 in the Jim Dandy but 10-1 on the ML doesn't seem too bad considering he's run a faster Beyer than Orb has ever run. No verticals for me in this race.

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: Sunday Stakes Previews at Saratoga and Del Mar

Rusty Weisner — Thu, 22 Aug 2013 17:22:48 GMT

I'm not sure what to do with the Ballston Spa -- just take the three that have won at G2 or G1 or whether any of the three G3 winners have a chance here; seems a pretty good bet to try to beat Laughing.

I like Palace Malice, but not enough to wager a lot on. I think I should go for the R9-11 P3, where I like two horses as singles: My Happy Face, but especially Let 'Em Shine. In the King's Bishop I think that one outclasses all the other speed and besides him I give a chance to the closers: besides the impressive Forty Tales longer shots Declan's Warrior, Capo Bastone, Central Banker.

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: Sunday Stakes Previews at Saratoga and Del Mar

Rusty Weisner — Thu, 22 Aug 2013 15:52:57 GMT

I like My Happy Face and Let 'Em Shine best in the first two legs of the big P4.

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: Sunday Stakes Previews at Saratoga and Del Mar

Rusty Weisner — Thu, 22 Aug 2013 14:17:26 GMT

Ranagulzion,

How so?

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: Sunday Stakes Previews at Saratoga and Del Mar

Ranagulzion — Wed, 21 Aug 2013 20:28:31 GMT

How we miss Jason Shandler

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: Sunday Stakes Previews at Saratoga and Del Mar

Plod Boy Phil — Wed, 21 Aug 2013 16:47:11 GMT

Wednesday Saratoga

R6) 1 Nodebtdanny (4-1) chased the wire to wire winner of a notably Speed favoring event last out at 7f on the dirt. While lacking the Flow figure strength as runaway winner 'GG' posted here on Sunday, the profile is similarly enticing.

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: Sunday Stakes Previews at Saratoga and Del Mar

Plod Boy Phil — Mon, 19 Aug 2013 15:03:35 GMT

Another interesting Monday card at Saratoga for Flow Players.

R6) 8 An Imaginery Road (6-1) impressed in MSW score with a 'vs Plod Win'. Best yet to come.

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: Sunday Stakes Previews at Saratoga and Del Mar

Little Bill — Sun, 18 Aug 2013 22:02:56 GMT

Congrats to all that cashed. It's freezing out here.

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: Sunday Stakes Previews at Saratoga and Del Mar

Monarchos Matt — Sun, 18 Aug 2013 21:36:23 GMT

Was live to Real Solution and The Apache in the all stakes Pick 4 and had them boxed in an exacta with Indy Point and Grandeur, which made for a very solid day for me, easily my best of the year so far. I stuck with Rydilluc in the Secretariat as my win play but it was worth it to learn that he is no 10f horse...but was spread deep enough there to have the winner and then hit with Dank outright as well. My main mistake was sticking with Indy Point, who all week I liked about equally as Real Solution, despite the beating his odds took. I guess I bought into the hype and believed that Real Soliution was vulnerable from the rail, but really wish I had stuck with the value play there. Lesson learned, but still a very good day and it was a fantastic event to attend as always.

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: Sunday Stakes Previews at Saratoga and Del Mar

Plod Boy Phil — Sun, 18 Aug 2013 20:52:51 GMT

Nicely done guys.

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: Sunday Stakes Preview at Del Mar

Plod Boy Phil — Sun, 18 Aug 2013 18:31:19 GMT

"...and Goldstryke Glory is running out of her skin today......in 1:08 and a fifth"

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: Sunday Stakes Preview at Del Mar

Plod Boy Phil — Sun, 18 Aug 2013 16:54:12 GMT

Sunday Woodbine

R4) 2 Goldstryke Glory (6-1) found herself chasing the wire to wire winner of a very Speed favoring Flow last out - not an easy task if a length or more back at the first call. Makes her turf debut today with a cutback to 6f.

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: Arlington Million Card and the Alabama

Kevin — Sun, 18 Aug 2013 14:40:51 GMT

Yeah, I'm still here. Good on Rusty for realizing I liked Real Solution. Didn't cash though, just had him in the late Pick4. Missed the next race as I had singled #9 Frivolous.

But I can no longer say I've always been on the wrong side of a DQ.

I was lucky enough to hit two early Pick 3s at Arlington and a good tri at Saratoga.

I cashed out most of my winnings, so just dabbling at Saratoga today.

Top picks:

Race 7) #9 Neck of the Moon

Race 10) #4 Bank Float (value pick)

Race 11) #7 Kitten Kaboodle

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: Arlington Million Card and the Alabama

Plod Boy Phil — Sun, 18 Aug 2013 14:34:34 GMT

Sunday Ellis Park

R1) 4 Arrived Home (9/2) recorded a 'Neutral or Better Win' in his turf debut last out following a impossible wide run behind the near w-w winner of a very Speed favoring race. Repeats on the step up.

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: Arlington Million Card and the Alabama

Plod Boy Phil — Sun, 18 Aug 2013 12:58:22 GMT

Since I don't drink, it's early to rise for another day with the Flow.

Weather pending, the note above regarding the over bet downgrade Kitten's Dumpling in yesterday's Del Mar Oaks, provides handicappers with an upgrade and a downgrade in today's Lake Placid. The 'Quick to Zip' goes to favored Tapicat while the 'with Zip' downgrade goes to Watsdachances.

Good times.

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: Arlington Million Card and the Alabama

Pedigree Ann — Sun, 18 Aug 2013 11:41:35 GMT

Anybody notice, in all the hoopla about the DQ involving the first two under the wire, what a brutal trip Hunter's Light had in the stretch? I picked him in the Race of the Day contest so I was watching him. Full of run, couldn't get out. Sawed off, bumped, clipped heels, stumbled, nearly went down. The chart doesn't begin to tell the whole story.

Hope Indy Point is all right. Race too bad to be true.

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: Arlington Million Card and the Alabama

Plod Boy Phil — Sun, 18 Aug 2013 01:02:10 GMT

The Del Mar Oaks:

That's not quite perfect, but still worth a BOOM.

Bold downgrade of the 6 made it a bit sweeter.

Drinks on Forbidden Apple !

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: Arlington Million Card and the Alabama

Plod Boy Phil — Sat, 17 Aug 2013 23:51:28 GMT

Arlington Race 12

6 Carson's Crown - chased the wire to wire winner of an Extreme Race for Speed last out. That run followed a modestly upgraded effort in a race with a speed favoring Flow in his return to sprinting after two turf routes. Trusting Stidham's choice for this spot over the opener.