Brisnet.com's Ultimate Case for Orb To Win the Travers Stakes

re: Brisnet.com's Ultimate Case for Orb To Win the Travers Stakes

Secreteriat — Fri, 30 Aug 2013 15:01:00 GMT

Rusty,

You're right about Lukas's % but he finishes 2nd a lot @ juicy odds.

Made some good money this year with WTC/Oxbow exacta at Oaklawn/Peakness, Jim Dandy and Optimizer under Point of Entry twice.

re: Brisnet.com's Ultimate Case for Orb To Win the Travers Stakes

Secreteriat — Fri, 30 Aug 2013 14:51:23 GMT

Further more he thinks Sage Valley has the most upside in the exotics.

re: Brisnet.com's Ultimate Case for Orb To Win the Travers Stakes

Secreteriat — Fri, 30 Aug 2013 14:47:01 GMT

Matt,

You may want to use Jackson Bend as an alternate in a Pick 4.

The trainer for Justin Philip who trains our horses is very high on him and I do not think this entry will be beat.

re: Brisnet.com's Ultimate Case for Orb To Win the Travers Stakes

Monarchos Matt — Fri, 30 Aug 2013 13:32:44 GMT

Secretariat,

I like the idea of playing the double here, but don't you think it's worth including a longer shot along with the entry? Does anyone care to weigh in on Jackson Bend's chances as a longshot? I will single MMM as well underneath.

Rusty,

I hope it works out for you. Unfortunately I have nothing to offer on 11 and 12 and will be sitting those out to turn my concentration to college football (Bama -20, Georgia -1.5, LSU -4 and Northwestern -5.5 are the plays for those inclined).

re: Brisnet.com's Ultimate Case for Orb To Win the Travers Stakes

Rusty Weisner — Fri, 30 Aug 2013 13:22:35 GMT

Secretariat,

Lukas is on fire when it counts. His winning percentage at Saratoga is actually terrible, though.

re: Brisnet.com's Ultimate Case for Orb To Win the Travers Stakes

Rusty Weisner — Fri, 30 Aug 2013 13:21:02 GMT

Monarchos Matt,

Speak of the devil -- new thread.

re: Brisnet.com's Ultimate Case for Orb To Win the Travers Stakes

Rusty Weisner — Fri, 30 Aug 2013 13:06:45 GMT

Monarchos Matt,

Sold.

re: Brisnet.com's Ultimate Case for Orb To Win the Travers Stakes

Rusty Weisner — Fri, 30 Aug 2013 13:05:45 GMT

Monarchos Matt,

I don't think the Woodward really lost its luster -- Fort Larned wasn't looking right and I was looking forward to him taking money and betting against him; glad they're doing what's best for the horse, though. I'll second Plod Boy Phil about Paynter, too: those numbers just don't look right to me. And he is the ML favorite (Successful Dan could be, looks good, and lost a little momentum in the stretch); I just won't take a favorite shipping east after he's endured a physical crisis. I considered MMM and will take it under advisement because I want some speed.

I like Tenango, and it's just an allowance race.

I think I won't go against Fast Bullet (I think Justin Phillip is more of a bet-against possibility).

I'll need some help with races 11 and 12.

I like this horse I mentioned in R6; seems to have a class edge (chased G1 winner Discreet Marq in her debut) and I will try her over the more recently raced horses coming out of the same race.

re: Brisnet.com's Ultimate Case for Orb To Win the Travers Stakes

Secreteriat — Fri, 30 Aug 2013 13:04:50 GMT

Lukas is on fire and he gets Fast Bullet. My only bet tomorrow will be Entry/Mucho Macho Double.

All or None

Good Luck All!

re: Brisnet.com's Ultimate Case for Orb To Win the Travers Stakes

Monarchos Matt — Fri, 30 Aug 2013 12:53:26 GMT

Ann,

I think what Phil posted above clarifies the angle I am taking with MMM...it's more about current trajectory. Certainly Paynter is eligible to move up third off the layoff as well, but he has already looked quite sharp whereas MMM has not.

I actually love Paynter (huge fan of both sides of his pedigree, which I am sure you can appreciate)and would love to see him win because of the story that would be. The race certainly sets up well for him in terms of pace. Still, I think he'll be close to even money, so taking a shot with the forgotten horse who appears to be sitting on a big one seems logical at around 4-1.

re: Brisnet.com's Ultimate Case for Orb To Win the Travers Stakes

Plod Boy Phil — Fri, 30 Aug 2013 11:42:38 GMT

re: 3rd off the lay-off

The idea behind the angle is that a trainer/horse has used the two previous races to prepare for a peak effort. That peak could be a lifetime best or a peak in the current form cycle.

In the case of Paynter, the horse returned from a year lay-off with arguably his lifetime best race. Despite the expected regression last out, the likelihood of him matching or improving upon his return effort seems remote at best. Therefore, I'd concur that he does not fit the classic '3rd off the lay-off angle'.

Mucho Macho Man on the other hand does fit the profile in that his second race since the time off was a bit better than the previous, yet neither has approached his lifetime best.

That said, all runners in the race draw 'neutral' ratings from us.

re: Brisnet.com's Ultimate Case for Orb To Win the Travers Stakes

Plod Boy Phil — Fri, 30 Aug 2013 11:16:37 GMT

Friday Saratoga

R8) 7 Bella Castani impressed with a strong closing kick into a notably Speed favoring Flow last out. Her two prior wins were each achieved from off the pace despite modestly speed friendly Flows. Catches enough pace today and rolls home as much the best.

re: Brisnet.com's Ultimate Case for Orb To Win the Travers Stakes

Pedigree Ann — Fri, 30 Aug 2013 06:14:30 GMT

Matt - You think MMM will be better third off the layoff, but don't think Paynter will be, in the same situation? Just sayin'....,

re: Brisnet.com's Ultimate Case for Orb To Win the Travers Stakes

Monarchos Matt — Fri, 30 Aug 2013 02:29:09 GMT

Hey Rusty. Good to see ya. I agree, this board has become like a ghost town. Bloodhorse really needs to get an actual host back to facilitate these conversations, the big races are upon us!

The Woodward sure lost a lot of luster didn't it? It's a shame because I was going to go against all the speed, and now Paynter looks to get a pretty great setup...I still think he'll be bet heavy (probably the favorite) and as much as I'd love to see him win for the story of it all, I think he's beatable here. Successful Dan is scary but I'm going to play against him too, it's tough to put two high quality races together at his age and he seems to like to come from further back....the same goes for Flat Out, and you know he's saving all his energy for Belmont (because the horse knows that the Jockey Club Gold Cup is coming up, of course).

I think what you want here is a just-off-the pace, rateable type that is coming around to the peak of his form cycle. All signs point to Mucho Macho Man for me. This will be his third race off the layoff and he was much improved in his last. After a 2nd place showing here last year, you know he likes the track. I know, he tends to hang in the stretch, but if Paynter isn't able to hold on through the final furlong he should be closest to him and should be the logical candidate for the win at decent odds, as he might be overlooked off his early 2013 form. It would be a shame to leave him off your Pick 4 tickets.

I love Za Approval in the Baruch, and would also lean towards Tenango in the 7th, although his close finish to Declan's Warrior is less flattering after that one's last two races. The Forego looks very difficult to get around the entry, but if you're looking for a bomber, don't forget about Jackson Bend. It's anyone's guess what kind of form he is sitting on for this race, but he did close well in his last, this is his ideal distance, and there looks to be a decent amount of speed. The obvious closer here is Justin Phillip, but Jackson Bend was closing harder to get the better of him two back at a shorter distance. Jackson Bend won this race two years ago and was clearly off form last fall. At 10-1 he's live in my opinion, although in all honesty I think Fast Bullet probably has to fall down in order to lose.

re: Brisnet.com's Ultimate Case for Orb To Win the Travers Stakes

Rusty Weisner — Thu, 29 Aug 2013 20:11:52 GMT

Try to beat the Pletcher 2yo in R5, single Live Life Fast in R6.

re: Brisnet.com's Ultimate Case for Orb To Win the Travers Stakes

Rusty Weisner — Thu, 29 Aug 2013 19:54:15 GMT

There's a rather amazing 0-for-20 horse in R6, Stock Fund: she's been second eight times in the last ten races, the last two times finding trouble in the stretch. A twofold wish: please don't let me bet her, and please don't let her win.

re: Brisnet.com's Ultimate Case for Orb To Win the Travers Stakes

Rusty Weisner — Thu, 29 Aug 2013 19:26:23 GMT

Hey, where is everybody?

I'm playing Saratoga Saturday. If I don't win I'll be nearing the four-figure mark in losses since the Belmont. But that won't happen!

I like Successful Dan and Flat Out in the Woodward and am staying away from Paynter.

Tenango might be a single for me in R7 after chasing futilely in his last; I like a turnback from 7f to 6f more than the reverse, and the favorite has not run on dirt yet.

I'll probably stick to the two favorites, Silver Max and Za Approval in R8, the Bernard Baruch.

Don't know what to do with the paired entry of monster favorites in the Forego, R9.

I have no idea about R11.

In R12, besides favored Much Stronger and Whiskey Romeo I would give King Henny a chance but don't like pp14.

re: Brisnet.com's Ultimate Case for Orb To Win the Travers Stakes

-Keelerman — Wed, 28 Aug 2013 00:57:19 GMT

Thanks, Rusty! I was cheering hard for Laughing in the homestretch. It was nice to have it play out as I had hoped!

I read that the Mentor Cane is being pointed toward the Vosburgh Stakes at Belmont, where he will challenge his elders for the first time. I'm really looking forward to seeing how he fares! Six furlongs should be much more ideal for him than seven, and I really believe he can give the older sprinters a run for the money. The ease with which he kicked clear in the stretch of the King's Bishop was, to me, breathtaking.

re: Brisnet.com's Ultimate Case for Orb To Win the Travers Stakes

Rusty Weisner — Tue, 27 Aug 2013 19:29:08 GMT

Plod Boy Phil,

The bridge to Assateague Island is also called the Verrazano. Was hanging around with ponies of a different kind.

re: Brisnet.com's Ultimate Case for Orb To Win the Travers Stakes

Rusty Weisner — Tue, 27 Aug 2013 18:25:22 GMT

Keelerman,

That was a great post, and a good pick, on Laughing up above.

I'll be looking for Mentor Cane's next race.

re: Brisnet.com's Ultimate Case for Orb To Win the Travers Stakes

Rusty Weisner — Tue, 27 Aug 2013 16:47:11 GMT

Kevin,

I was ambivalent about betting Palace Malice one last time, but went and did it and don't really regret it that much, though my parting comment about WTC was that I missed the boat on him at 17-1 but he made a good bet at 10-1. Should have taken my own advice and just taken the odds on a horse I thought was a legitimate threat -- it reminds me a little of missing Oxbow at 15-1 in the Preakness. Alas, my blood is still not as cold as it needs to be to play this game.

Palace Malice had bad luck at the start but ran a good race -- his preferred style is clearly to "latch on" early (Moreno would have again served well for that purpose if PM had had a good break). He looked strongest there in the last jumps.

And at least he beat Verrazano! I'm kicking myself a little for not going for the odds on the winner, but at least I didn't commit the ignominy of putting money of Verrazano. 116 was the same number Quality Road had before his Travers, by the way.

re: Brisnet.com's Ultimate Case for Orb To Win the Travers Stakes

Rusty Weisner — Tue, 27 Aug 2013 16:37:21 GMT

Plod Boy Phil,

Huh? Do I Amuse You, that one from last Saturday? No straight bet. I singled him on the tail end of a P3.

re: Brisnet.com's Ultimate Case for Orb To Win the Travers Stakes

Plod Boy Phil — Tue, 27 Aug 2013 00:00:26 GMT

Kevin-

Joe's Blazing Aaron, while a 'vs Zip' upgrade out of his last, was attempting a very difficult task in turning back to 5.5f off a long series of routes. It is far different than a confirmed sprinter running a route race, then retuning to a sprint. I've felt, and often play, those similar to him the second time sprinting if the first was a 'failure'. It is an entirely different type of energy expenditure that route prepped muscles are not accustomed to. Beware JBA when next seen, perhaps at 7f on the turf at Belmont.

The Travers Flow was only slightly Speed favoring. It was not enough to warrant upgrading or downgrading any runner that entered the race 'neutral'. However, since PM was a bold upgrade for us in the Belmont and the Jim Dandy and a regular upgrade in the Travers, I'm inclined to carry his grade next out. His early position was a function of a poor start in which he was a bit unprepared and stumbled slightly. As for beating older horses in the BCC, that's an entirely different matter.

re: Brisnet.com's Ultimate Case for Orb To Win the Travers Stakes

Kevin — Mon, 26 Aug 2013 23:42:38 GMT

Phil, good advice on the parlay; unfortunately read it after Joes Blazing Aaron finished a close 4th and ended my parlay a lot earlier than expected.

Understand what you are saying about the track on Saturday. But in my "blind eye" I think Palace Malice is going to be a huge underlay in the Breeders Cup (after Game on Dude's Pacific Classic performance) and a must play. Not sure why he was so far off the pace.

re: Brisnet.com's Ultimate Case for Orb To Win the Travers Stakes

Plod Boy Phil — Mon, 26 Aug 2013 21:21:48 GMT

Kevin -

Racing Flow figures are in.

The main track at Saratoga on Saturday was as fair a track as there can be. Once again, in our opinion, attempting to ascertain Bias without understanding the impact that each individual race Flow had on the results is nothing more than a guess.

The turf courses played modestly favorable to speed, but no more so than we saw on August 11th.

That said, there were two turf races on the Travers Day card that were significantly favorable to speed. Each was driven more by their respective Flow than the course. Aside from those two events, I recommend caution if one is inclined to blindly 'upgrade' failed turf closers from Saturday.