Brisnet.com's Ultimate Case for Mucho Macho Man & Lea

re: Brisnet.com's Ultimate Case for Mucho Macho Man & Lea

Mary Zinke — Thu, 05 Sep 2013 17:40:32 GMT

Yes, Alpha is a good colt. Ever since he stopped spazzing out in the gate I've liked him. He's a good colt that has had some very crappy losses, but like with Jeranimo for instance, gotta look at Alpha's ability to also run well. Don't discount the inconsistent ones as contenders, because one of my sayings, which maybe only I get, is that when they are inconsistent, they are inconsistently good, too.

re: Brisnet.com's Ultimate Case for Mucho Macho Man & Lea

Coldfacts — Thu, 05 Sep 2013 12:01:16 GMT

Pedigree Ann

"Alpha's form at 3 was not that of a top horse."

I do not recall referring to Alpha as a top 3YO. Below is an extract from one of my posts on the other Blog.

"Alpha has 6 victories to his credit and only two were achieved on a sloppy track. He has only contested 5 races as a 4YO. He showed enough promise as a 3YO to suggest that further improvement was possible as a 4YO."

Alpha made 9 starts as a 3YO. Amongst his victories were the G1 Travers, G2 Jim Dandy and the G3 Withers. He also won the Gotham Stakes.

He was a NS second to Gemologist in the G1 Wood. The Wood is has long been regarded as A premier Derby Preps. Gemologist was undefeated at the time and was high on most Derby list. In fact, he left the gates a 6-1.

Alpha finished 12th in the Derby and the following horses were behind him:

Gemologist - 1st Wood Memorial

El Padrino - 1st Risen Star

Done Talking - 1st IL Derby

Take Charge Indy - 1st FL Derby

Serbercat - 3rd AK Derby

Prospective - 1st Tampa Bay Derby

Daddy Longs Legs -1st UAE Derby

For colt that was not a top 3YO he certainly defeated a lot of graded winners who were far more highly regarded.

re: Brisnet.com's Ultimate Case for Mucho Macho Man & Lea

Signal — Tue, 03 Sep 2013 18:06:34 GMT

Pedigree Ann,

Pleasr tell us, who is your pick for the top dirt horse now.

re: Brisnet.com's Ultimate Case for Mucho Macho Man & Lea

Pedigree Ann — Tue, 03 Sep 2013 02:33:36 GMT

Coldfacts - No matter how well, he might have been at 2, Alpha's form at 3 was not that of a top horse. He got lucky at Saratoga because none of the horses who had beaten him all spring were out of action for one reason or another. This has happened more than once before - Annihilate 'Em won the Travers in Secretariat's year, etc. His races in the Pa Derby and BC Classic were not those of a top colt.

re: Brisnet.com's Ultimate Case for Mucho Macho Man & Lea

Coldfacts — Mon, 02 Sep 2013 05:38:22 GMT

"Lesser horse wins on the front end on a sloppy track"

In fairness to Alpha he might not be a household name but is certainty not chopped liver.

He exited a MSW and finished second in the G1 Champagne to eventual Belmont winner Union Rags.

He was thought good enough to be entered in the Kentucky Derby and Breeders Cup Classic.

It is fair to regard him as an under achiever but unfair to regard him as lesser horse. He has won on both fast and sloppy tracks.

re: Brisnet.com's Ultimate Case for Mucho Macho Man & Lea

Monarchos Matt — Mon, 02 Sep 2013 02:58:22 GMT

Rusty,

It was an odd, speed favoring day that I was happy to sit out for the most part. The Za Approval and MMM scratches ruined any desire I had to play a Pick 3, and as far as the Forego is concerned, I congratulate anyone who thought that Strapping Groom had any chance whatsoever to wire that field. The only bet I ended up making all day was on Sage Valley to win, had Jackson Bend been closer to his ML i might have bet him instead, but glad to see him at least run the race I thought he was sitting on, even if he came just short.

As far as eating our words about the slop, it was the decision of the connections to scratch MMM, and while admittedly they know what the horse wants better than I do as far as track condition, he still didn't get a chance to prove them wrong. But, I don't blame them, that track was a mess.

In any case, the Jockey Club Gold Cup should be a good one...

re: Brisnet.com's Ultimate Case for Mucho Macho Man & Lea

Pedigree Ann — Sun, 01 Sep 2013 21:27:39 GMT

Well, back from Vilnius and Warsaw - my husband does go some unusual places for his work. Thirty-two- hour days from crossing 6 time zones going westward leave me woozy. Stayed not far from the track in Warsaw, but they were running Arabs not TBs last week.

I see that it rained a lot at Saratoga and that Alpha took them wire-to-wire in the pseudo-Woodward. Lesser horse wins on the front end on a sloppy track. <Yawn.> Not like we haven't seen that before. Guess it was a bridge too far for Paynter at this stage of his comeback. Hope it doesn't set him back - BC this season may an unrealistic goal.

re: Brisnet.com's Ultimate Case for Mucho Macho Man & Lea

Kevin — Sun, 01 Sep 2013 16:04:59 GMT

I'm not buying into the cheating theory on Alpha, saw the video and dont think it shows much of anything.

However, I did want to ask other's opinion on the 95 Derby and Thunder Gulch. Looks pretty obvious Stevens hands Pat Day something in the gallop out. This may be old news to everyone else but I just saw the video for the first time last night. Is "buzzer" cheating common?

re: Brisnet.com's Ultimate Case for Mucho Macho Man & Lea

Plod Boy Phil — Sun, 01 Sep 2013 16:00:03 GMT

Dancing House enjoyed the wide trip on a severely Closer Biased main track. Slow and 'aided' not an ideal profile for a forward move in first try with winners.

re: Brisnet.com's Ultimate Case for Mucho Macho Man & Lea

Rusty Weisner — Sun, 01 Sep 2013 15:44:04 GMT

Monarchos Matt,

Ended up taking Jackson Bend (along with Sage Valley) on the hopes the conditions might encourage him to run back to prior form. Another in a 3-weekend series of second place finishes and near misses.

re: Brisnet.com's Ultimate Case for Mucho Macho Man & Lea

Rusty Weisner — Sun, 01 Sep 2013 15:36:55 GMT

Monarchos Matt,

Alpha paid $17.40.

I have to eat my words about MMM and sloppy tracks. I also have to find a better weather report -- I had no idea there had been downpours until I checked in around the 3rd race.

re: Brisnet.com's Ultimate Case for Mucho Macho Man & Lea

Coldfacts — Sun, 01 Sep 2013 15:31:21 GMT

The last time a mare from a nondescript son of Seattle Slew produce a quality horse that horse went on to win the Kentucky Derby. The horse was Funny Cide. Belle’s Good Cide the dam of Funny Cide was sires by Slewacide a son of TC winner Seattle Slew who made only one start and earned $2,160. He must have gotten injured as he was produced from a Buckpasser mare. He was certainly bred for marathons.

Another promising horse has emerged from a mare sired by one of Slew’s relatively unknown sons. The horse is the Darley bred Dancing House. She was sired by Tapit and out of millionaire and G1 winner Tout Charmant who was sired by Slewvescent. This son of Seattle Slew made 7 starts and earned $15,600.

This filly won on debut after experiencing problems while leaving the gates and traffic problems on the back stretch. She appears very small but displayed a very big heart in repelling the challenge of runner up Quilt in the stretch.

She enters the G1 Spinaway off the above mentioned MSW victory and faces a big challenge. However, she has many positives to win the race.

Her sire Tapit is an excellent sire of fillies. Joyful Victory, Stardom Bound, Careless Jewel, Tapitsfly, Zazu and Laragh are few of Tapit’s top female runners.

Although she won at 6F she is a router and longer is better. The 7F of the Spinaway will be ideal.

She hails from stable that is on fire.

There are some brilliant fillies in the Spinaway and the pace will be honest. I expect Dancing House

to be doing her best running late.

I think she can get there despite her inexperience.

re: Brisnet.com's Ultimate Case for Mucho Macho Man & Lea

Plod Boy Phil — Sun, 01 Sep 2013 13:58:46 GMT

There are a couple of significant similarities in Del Mar Debutante winner She's a Tiger and Brazen Persuasion today in the Spinaway.

- each enter(ed) their respective races with 'vs Zip Wins' in an Extreme Race for Closers on their resumes.

- each was given a bold upgrade

- each has stake experience in inexperienced fields

The biggest difference is the draw, as She's a Tiger enjoyed the comforts of being the fastest and outside, while BP must negotiate the rail going 7f. Her superior quickness will make the task much easier.

re: Brisnet.com's Ultimate Case for Mucho Macho Man & Lea

Rusty Weisner — Sat, 31 Aug 2013 23:53:09 GMT

Coldfacts,

Well done. I put Alpha on my tickets (with Successful Dan & Flat Out) at the last minute after MMM scratched: he looked to try to pull the same thing he did in last year's Jim Dandy.

You helped give me a chance to make a lot of money, but I didn't have the prior leg (took 1,3,4 after toying with taking all but the 2 & the 8). So how much money? I played rolling P3s races 5 thru 12 for a total of $75, singling Tenango and Silver Max and getting my horses in all the legs but R10 and R9. The P3 tickets for R7-9 wsa $200-1, R8-10 $320-1, R9-11...$827-1. It just goes to show you that a single and an ALL will go a long way -- Today was chintzy betting so I'm not going to regret not throwing a hail mary and getting lucky on that race, but it does confirm me in my intent to throw money at the wall on BC rolling P3's.

And hey, I did net $20 today!

re: Brisnet.com's Ultimate Case for Mucho Macho Man & Lea

Monarchos Matt — Sat, 31 Aug 2013 22:52:27 GMT

Coldfacts,

Hope you stuck to your guns with Alpha. I would have demanded better than 5-1 but in a field that short you had a pretty great angle there. Congrats.

re: Brisnet.com's Ultimate Case for Mucho Macho Man & Lea

Mary Zinke — Sat, 31 Aug 2013 22:03:52 GMT

Way to go Alpha. Was hoping Flat Out would add another grade 1 win before his three-peat try, but I'm happy for Alpha and connections.

re: Brisnet.com's Ultimate Case for Mucho Macho Man & Lea

Plod Boy Phil — Sat, 31 Aug 2013 21:54:47 GMT

Congrats Alpha backers.

re: Brisnet.com's Ultimate Case for Mucho Macho Man & Lea

Plod Boy Phil — Sat, 31 Aug 2013 20:23:36 GMT

of course, that's #13 Island Sunset

re: Brisnet.com's Ultimate Case for Mucho Macho Man & Lea

Plod Boy Phil — Sat, 31 Aug 2013 19:30:55 GMT

Saratoga R12

3 Island Sunset enters off an upgraded win last out. I've seen enough with this profile repeat next out in the slop to have more than a passing interest.

re: Brisnet.com's Ultimate Case for Mucho Macho Man & Lea

Linda in Texas — Sat, 31 Aug 2013 17:19:26 GMT

Plod Boy Phil - after Race 9 at Saratoga last Saturday - i looked up when Sarava's Dancer last worked out. She did on 7/8 and 7/15 on TURF, then on DIRT 7/22, 8/8 and 8/17 and raced on TURF 8/25/13 and snapped a foreleg. She was a beautiful mare. She last raced in a claiming on 7/27/13 (surface??) at Saratoga, before her fatal race last Saturday.

And Kris Royal trained on DIRT at Saratoga on 7/20 and 8/13 then raced on TURF 8/25/2013 and broke down right after Sarava's Dancer.

Linda

re: Brisnet.com's Ultimate Case for Mucho Macho Man & Lea

Linda in Texas — Sat, 31 Aug 2013 17:00:54 GMT

Exactly re: turf - now watching Saratoga pre race 1 and the track is very sloppy, rain just quit. Now what does that portend for Paynter, etc.

Lots of scratches for Race 1 and 2.

re: Brisnet.com's Ultimate Case for Mucho Macho Man & Lea

Plod Boy Phil — Sat, 31 Aug 2013 16:44:07 GMT

Linda-

What made last week's event even more unusual is that was a turf race no less.

re: Brisnet.com's Ultimate Case for Mucho Macho Man & Lea

Linda in Texas — Sat, 31 Aug 2013 16:38:59 GMT

Plod Boy Phil - wondered the same thing myself. He was a fan favorite including me. Several breakdowns at this meet. 2 just last week end in the same race. Sarava's Dancer who was in the lead and Kris Royal after her. Just never will handle the sad ends for them. Never. Perfectly fine one minute, bad step the next and gone.

Hope everyone comes home safely today. All of them. Not just the more famous ones.

re: Brisnet.com's Ultimate Case for Mucho Macho Man & Lea

Linda in Texas — Sat, 31 Aug 2013 16:38:59 GMT

Hope everyone comes home safely today. All of them. Not just the more famous ones.

re: Brisnet.com's Ultimate Case for Mucho Macho Man & Lea

-Keelerman — Sat, 31 Aug 2013 16:06:33 GMT

It sounds as though Mucho Macho Man will scratch from the Woodward if the track isn't fast . . . I'll be keeping an eye on the weather!