TimeformUS Weekend Plays: The Pennsylvania Derby and The Gallant Bloom

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: The Pennsylvania Derby and The Gallant Bloom

Coldfacts — Mon, 23 Sep 2013 14:48:02 GMT

Transparent was in receipt of an absolutely horrible ride.

His rider did a very poor job down the back stretch. On two occasions he checked the colt behind the tiring Speak Logistics. He was right along side WTC and while the rider on WTC chose to take the shortest rout by swinging inside, he ride on Transparent piloted him 5 wide.

He was blocked again in the straight but finished resolutely for 4th.

Could he have beaten WTC? I think yes. He was only beaten 4L and the issues had must have cost him more than 4L.

Romansh yet again faded in the stretch and it appears there was not improvement off his Travers effort.

I would love to see the blinkers removed. He scored his only victory impressively without them. Has his trainer not learnt anything from the removal of the blinkers from Will Take Charge?

How can a professional trainer be so inept?

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: The Pennsylvania Derby and The Gallant Bloom

Mary Zinke — Sun, 22 Sep 2013 04:49:57 GMT

Still waiting for the reveal.

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: The Pennsylvania Derby and The Gallant Bloom

Coldfacts — Sat, 21 Sep 2013 15:04:21 GMT

Holiday Soiree ended her 3YO season in October 2012. She returned to the races on April 20, 2013 in the Sugar Maple at Charles Town. She demolished by Dance To Bristol. Fourteen days later she contested the Humanna Distaff a Churchill and finished 3rd. Twenty three days later she contested the Red Cross at Monmouth Park.

She contested 3 races in in a brutal 41 days. She was given 40 days off and returned in the G1 Princess Rooney where she finished 4th. Subsequent to the Princess Rooney she was sold and transfer to Todd Pletcher. In her first under her new trainer she clocked 1:08.80. That time was 2 to 3 seconds faster than she has ever run fir the distance.

With Dance Card and Cluster of Start returning from lengthy layoffs, Holiday Soiree has to be the horse to beat.

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: The Pennsylvania Derby and The Gallant Bloom

Coldfacts — Sat, 21 Sep 2013 04:19:21 GMT

With Transparent and Romansh coupled the betting public gets an appealing two for the price of one. Under normal circumstance I would have preferred Transparent over Romansh based on his PPs and favorable handicap. He will leave the gates in the PA Derby with 117lbs as compared to the 126lbs he carried in the Travers. His effort in the Curlin suggests he is competitive at 9F. However, Transparent is simply too inconsistent and does not inspire confidence.

As a 2YO Transparent finished 4 1/4L behind eventually Derby winner Orb. In the same race he was 2 1/4L behind Peter Pan winner Freedom Child and a HD separated him and Revolutionary for 4th. All three horses that finished ahead of him in that race subsequently record graded victories with two recording multiple graded victories. Transparent is yet to score a graded victory and continues to flatter to deceive. His best finish in a graded race was in the Gotham where he finished 6th beaten 5L.

Transparent has recorded 2 wins from 10 starts. His most impressive came in an 8F Allowance where he won by 10L in the smart time of 1:35 3/5. The fractions of the race were 23, 45, and 1:09. He was subsequently off the scene for 15 weeks. He returned in the 9F Curlin and won handily in a good time of 1:49 2/5.

One would have thought that with consecutive wins this was the new Transparent who had finally decided to deliver on the promise he showed as a 2YO. His entry into the Travers would be the litmus test. He finished a floundering last beaten 15L. The old Transparent has returned.

He will run with Lasix for the 1st time in the PA Derby. The popular diuretic commonly call ‘The Juice’ is known to significantly improve the performance of horses. However, some perform at their best the 2nd time on the drug.

As previously stated, Transparent has recorded times of 1:35 2/5 for 8F and 1:49 2/5 for 9F without Lasix. It is therefore within the realm of possibility that he could record a time of 1:47 plus for 9F with drug administered. This time would be competitive enough to win the PA Derby. Could Lasix be the solution to his inconsistencies? Yet another litmus test is pending.

My choice in the PA Derby is Romansh. The fact that he and Transparent are coupled will allow my wager to include at no additional cost, a second runner with a favorable handicap and whose true potential is likely to be revealed with the addition of Lasix.

What a deal!

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: The Pennsylvania Derby and The Gallant Bloom

Coldfacts — Fri, 20 Sep 2013 22:25:46 GMT

Correction to previous post:

Stick with the Smarty Jones home boy in the Gallant Bob. He knows every inch of the course.

Take the Street Hero filly Street Girl to make the Tri & Super sweet in the Cotillion. Her dam sire Kris S was also the Dam sire of Breeder Cup winners Zenyatta and War Chant.

Her 9 wide move and closing rush to get within 1 1/2L of Dance To Bristol in the Ballerina make her a worthy candidate to crack the top four.

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: The Pennsylvania Derby and The Gallant Bloom

Coldfacts — Fri, 20 Sep 2013 22:16:41 GMT

Stick with the Smarty Jones home boy in the Gallant Bloom. He knows every inch of the course.

Take the Street Hero filly Street Girl to make the Tri & Super sweet in the Cotillion. Her dam sire Kris S was also the Dam sire of Breeder Cup winners Zenyatta and War Chant.

Her 9 wide move and closing rush to get within 1 1/2L of Dance To Bristol in the Ballerina make her a worthy candidate to crack the top four.

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: The Pennsylvania Derby and The Gallant Bloom

Coldfacts — Fri, 20 Sep 2013 22:02:51 GMT

Correction:

With the distance now cut back to 9F and his handicap reduce by (7lbs) he must have a great chance to turn the tables WTC and Moreno. -

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: The Pennsylvania Derby and The Gallant Bloom

Coldfacts — Fri, 20 Sep 2013 21:06:57 GMT

Romansh should be more than a live outsider in the PA Derby. Why? He is the most likely to improve several lengths off his Travers effort. When Romansh contested the Travers it was the 5th start of his career. At the furlong pole he was no more than a one to two lengths off the Derby winner Orb, Belmont/Jim Dandy winner Palace Malice and Jim Dandy runner up WTC. How many starts did the horses below take into the Travers?

Will Take Charge – 11

Moreno – 12

Orb – 10

Palace Malice – 9

War Dancer - 6

Verrazano – 7

Golden Soul – 8

Transparent - 9

As Previously cited Romansh entered the 10F Travers with only 4 starts and badly lacking in foundation. There was another colt that faced a similar situation heading into the Kentucky Derby. Verrazano entered the starting gates of the Derby with only 4 starts. He finished a floundering 14th as compared to Romansh's 5th place is his attempt.

In the Travers Verrazano and Ramansh with synchronized strides chased Moreno down the back stretch to the top of the straight. Verrazano backed out and Romansh battle on to finish 4L 5th.

With such little foundation for 10F, Romansh finished 5L behind three horses that combined for 7 graded victories.

With the distance now cut back to 9F and his handicap reduce by 9lbs he must have a great chance to turn the tables WTC and Moreno.

At a ML of 8-1, he should leave the gates at more like 12-1. Does anyone recall that Bernardini won the Preakness at 12-1.

I remain puzzled as to why Romansh’s trainer has fitted him with blinkers. His only victory was achieved without them. He has not been very resolute in the last furlong on his races since they have been fitted. A horse wins impressively without blinkers and they are affixed for his next two starts and he weakens. Wouldn’t be wise to remove them?

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: The Pennsylvania Derby and The Gallant Bloom

Rusty Weisner — Fri, 20 Sep 2013 18:05:14 GMT

There may rain tomorrow in Philadelphia. There's supposed to be a ton south of there -- there's a very good Laurel card tomorrow I wanted to play but all the turf races could be washed off.

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: The Pennsylvania Derby and The Gallant Bloom

Rusty Weisner — Fri, 20 Sep 2013 18:01:26 GMT

I wouldn't say Palace Malice "inexplicably tried to revert to closing-wide tactics." Maybe his jockey did, though I thought the ride was pretty explicable after the stumble.

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: The Pennsylvania Derby and The Gallant Bloom

loosemood11 — Fri, 20 Sep 2013 17:21:55 GMT

Why no suggestions as to wagering?

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: The Pennsylvania Derby and The Gallant Bloom

Pedigree Ann — Fri, 20 Sep 2013 17:16:47 GMT

I thought last winter that Fury Kapcori could become one of the better distance 3yos. Unfortunately it was not to be. Now is third off the layoff and is clearly rounding into shape for a longer race; his full sister Tizfiz won stakes races at longer than a mile. And he was won on real dirt.