TimeformUS Weekend Plays: The Jockey Club Gold Cup and The Awesome Again

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: The Jockey Club Gold Cup and The Awesome Again

Plod Boy Phil — Fri, 04 Oct 2013 15:15:43 GMT

New Post up -

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: The Jockey Club Gold Cup and The Awesome Again

Monarchos Matt — Fri, 04 Oct 2013 14:58:35 GMT

I'm looking at the Keeneland card and really like SAY at a price in the First Lady. She finished less than two lengths behind Dank, and we saw how much better that one was than the Americans in the Beverly D...Say was beaten third by less than a length in her last, a Group 1 race in Europe. She may romp here.

Thinking about a DD Say/4 in the Futurity...think I know which 4 I like but that race is a puzzler.

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: The Jockey Club Gold Cup and The Awesome Again

Rusty Weisner — Fri, 04 Oct 2013 14:34:57 GMT

I think I'm going to try a longshot in the Champagne, Ride On Curlin. I'll be surprised if odds aren't longer than the ML 12-1; I think bettors will gravitate towards favorites. I'll do WPS on this one, not sure what else. The Iroquois was interesting, as the two co-favorites were run down by longshots from far off the pace, while the third favorite faded worse than the other two. The splits got progressively slower, so maybe it was just a lousy race and I should stay away from anyone in it (CD's 2-yo features were weak last year), but the co-favorite, Tapiture, chased Strong Mandate for second in his debut.

I'd like to play an exacta, too, but not sure who with, or even ALL. Ordinarily I'd bet against a horse like Strong Mandate that romped in the slop last out, but that romp was no departure from form. Honor Code's race was fun to watch.

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: The Jockey Club Gold Cup and The Awesome Again

Secreteriat — Thu, 03 Oct 2013 16:05:14 GMT

Guys,

You all make very good points!

Horse Racing can be exhilirating or a humbling game!

Two weeks ago I had the best day ever in 46 years of betting horses.

Ther was a deluge at Belmont and I thought I was not going to cash a ticket. I ended up betting rolling doubles and 4 horse exacta boxes and hit 7 races in a row. I also hit the late P4 at Belmont and the late P4 at Delmar. It was like the movie Let It Ride!

Last Saturday I was live in the Pick 4 to Palice Malice, Cross Ticket,Flat Out and ORB.I had a large exacta Royal Delta over Princess of Sylmar and a large P 3 using Those 2 and not using Graydar due to his layoff and loss at Belmont. Even though I had six winners in the P3 and P 4 I did not cash one ticket.

The point is sometimes you Win! Sometimes we Loose!and we are at the mercy of the Racing Gods.

I aproach this game as entertainment and enjoy it no matter the outcome.

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: The Jockey Club Gold Cup and The Awesome Again

Plod Boy Phil — Thu, 03 Oct 2013 02:19:41 GMT

Let's not digress guys - we know how quickly these communications can blow up. It's just horses running around an oval.

Welcome Brontexx.

Lot's of good races this weekend every one. Gets those Forms out.

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: The Jockey Club Gold Cup and The Awesome Again

Monarchos Matt — Thu, 03 Oct 2013 01:04:53 GMT

Brontexx,

I'm not so much coming to anyone's defense as much as I am genuinely trying to understand what point you are trying to make.

If you're saying that it's important to structure outright and exotic bets in order to assure yourself a worthwhile return in the event that your pick is correct, than I completely agree with that. Myself, I like to structure a W,P or S bet in at least equal proportion to my exotic wager and so that if that bet hits, I at least DOUBLE my return on the total investment. If I lose my exacta or tri bet, than I've still made 100% return if my top choice comes in, and if I hit the exotic wager, then that's just gravy.

However, the point that I and other posters are making to you is that it is not our job to do the math for you.

Plod Boy Phil gave out Ron The Greek to win before the race. The horse went off 21-1 after a 12-1 morning line. It isn't exactly rocket science, you could have played the horse any number of ways and done the math to assure a profitable outcome if he hit the board. Bet him to win, bet him to place, bet him to show, box him in an exacta with the two favorites, key him in an exacta over ALL, it doesn't matter. Any of these bets would have provided a very profitable return at those odds for any conceivable unit wager...well above and beyond the criteria that I described above.

To think I simply mentioned I wish I'd seen the post or alternatively just used my head considering I've been betting Ron The Greek all year at a quarter of those odds.. and this has come out of it? Haha, carry on.

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: The Jockey Club Gold Cup and The Awesome Again

Brontexx — Wed, 02 Oct 2013 23:07:05 GMT

Oh great now he appears, dont worry about it Phil I am not judging you.I just made ONE comment about betting and it has ballooned into this.

I dont need any more details just give your fellow bloggers what you have been.

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: The Jockey Club Gold Cup and The Awesome Again

Plod Boy Phil — Wed, 02 Oct 2013 22:43:27 GMT

Brontexx -

There are a group of Unlocking Winner Bloggers here that have been exchanging correspondence here for many months, some for years. Do you think you are in position to judge the value, or lack there of, of anything any one of us offers?

Just how detailed a betting strategy is needed to profit from a $44 winner ?

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: The Jockey Club Gold Cup and The Awesome Again

Brontexx — Wed, 02 Oct 2013 21:55:45 GMT

Wow two bloggers defending a blogger on a racehorse site.I wont get into any argument other than to repeat what I said Im glad you make use of his win picks but my goal is to make money from my bets.

I have to use the live odds and devise my bets so that whichever one of my bets wins I make more money than I bet for the entire race.There are however some races where I am sure of my key horse and my amount bet on the race will increase.

Without knowing how much Im betting in the win pool I wont be able to cover if for instance that horse gets nosed out at the wire and runs 2nd.It happens you know.

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: The Jockey Club Gold Cup and The Awesome Again

Rusty Weisner — Wed, 02 Oct 2013 21:07:36 GMT

Brontexx,

Take people's picks or leave them.

Asking for exact bets and exact amounts isn't always a reasonable expectation. Things change as circumstances change, conditions at the track, in the paddock, in the thick of action. I'm the exception to the rule lately because I've had to make a lot of early bets and not been even online sometimes, much less at the track.

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: The Jockey Club Gold Cup and The Awesome Again

Monarchos Matt — Wed, 02 Oct 2013 20:35:40 GMT

Brontexx,

I feel like I'm missing your point. First you say that you require an amount for an outright WPS bet, and now you are saying that you need it for exotics?

How does the amount of the bet matter to you for exotics? When playing an exacta or a trifecta the important thing is how you structure it. Do you want to box 2 in an exacta? Box 3? Key 2 over 3? Key 1 over 5? Key 1 over ALL? Box 5 or 6?(often a profitable strategy in a race like the Kentucky Derby). Once you have the bet structured you can bet as many units as your bankroll can withstand...but your profitability per unit is the same regardless of whether you bet $100 on an exacta box or $1. It's about deciding who can and who cannot finish on the board. Once you have that information you can bet to your heart's extent, can't you?

Please clarify your point...

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: The Jockey Club Gold Cup and The Awesome Again

Monarchos Matt — Wed, 02 Oct 2013 20:20:19 GMT

Rusty,

Thanks. Like I said, it wouldn't have mattered anyway, as I was only playing the race as part of the Pick 4 and wasn't live to Ron the Greek. But I still can't believe that Big Blue Kitten didn't get past him, or that Real Solution hung like that when it looked like he was going to devour Little Mike over the final furlong. Nice use of ALL there by you after all. Now we return to the cycle where Little Mike won't be 7-1 for another several races, which of course means I have to keep betting against him. NEMESIS STATUS.

Looks like a great card at Keeneland this weekend, although I may watch and learn in anticipation for BC Saturday. We'll see.

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: The Jockey Club Gold Cup and The Awesome Again

Brontexx — Wed, 02 Oct 2013 20:19:26 GMT

Rusty Weisner Im glad you are confident in his picks but unfortunately as an exotic player without the amount of the bet I cant use it.

This is a blog for handicappers and we play with REAL money.Now if it were for contest play where each wager is the same amount then that is different.

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: The Jockey Club Gold Cup and The Awesome Again

Rusty Weisner — Wed, 02 Oct 2013 19:06:48 GMT

Monarchos Matt,

That was the first time that Little Mike hasn't beaten me (nice analysis of the pace of that race, by the way). Too bad it didn't amount to anything.

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: The Jockey Club Gold Cup and The Awesome Again

Rusty Weisner — Wed, 02 Oct 2013 17:53:20 GMT

Brontexx,

Take it from me, PBP is a profitable pro. I had a very sharp exchange with him some months back because I thought he held picks close to the vest and then offered opinions and claimed winners afterwards. Since then I think he's opened up a little and his picks have consistently been the best on the site, and nearly always double figures; RTG was the not the first $44 horse I've seen from him. So I feel I owe him that much to vouch for him.

I don't think the amount matters when you see that someone is a serious near-daily player. Me, I'm real explicit in every aspect of what I bet. It's probably a sign as much as anything that I'm an amateur. I do it because I like having credibility with this community when I make the rare big score, and I also find it makes me really think through my bets more before I post them. It's also therapeutic.

As I said, I'm up an even $1000 this year and that's the wad I'm taking to my season finale, BC (second) day.

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: The Jockey Club Gold Cup and The Awesome Again

Monarchos Matt — Wed, 02 Oct 2013 16:20:13 GMT

Brontexx,

I suppose that's one way to look at it, although doesn't that tend to get a bit personal in terms of the relative finances of individual posters? Kind of like asking someone how much money they made last year...some posters feel comfortable posting dollar amounts of wagers, and that's fine, but I don't see what difference it makes if the objective of participating on this board is to hear the opinions of others in order to work through, broaden and solidify your own wagering strategy. A winner is a winner is a winner...

Another way to look at it is in terms of multi-race wagers. To have singled Ron the Greek on a Pick 4 ticket and singled the Laughing entry would have allowed for considerable spreading across the other two races. That's how I play. And, considering that the $1 Pick 4 paid $3700 on a $1300 theoretical parlay based on win odds in the sequence, I'm not overly concerned with the unit size.

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: The Jockey Club Gold Cup and The Awesome Again

Brontexx — Wed, 02 Oct 2013 15:42:58 GMT

Monarchos Matt I know that poster PBP said win but if thats what he always says when posting a suggestion on here it still dosent specify an amount.

Some win bets will be for more units than others if someone implies the same win bet on all their picks then that someone probably dosent know how to bet very well.I am not making a negative comment about anyone on the blog but for anyone that knows anything about betting assuming that Ron as a more than 10-1 long shot would be bet the same as for instance an 8/5 favorite dosent make sense.

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: The Jockey Club Gold Cup and The Awesome Again

Monarchos Matt — Wed, 02 Oct 2013 13:39:33 GMT

** Prior four races, I meant to type...

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: The Jockey Club Gold Cup and The Awesome Again

Monarchos Matt — Wed, 02 Oct 2013 13:27:31 GMT

Brontexx-

Perhaps you have a point, but I think it has been pretty clear that Little Mike has not been successful going straight to the lead and trying to hang on at shorter distances in his prior six races this year. Given that Joe's Blazing Aaron could not have been more of an obvious rabbit for his deep closing stablemates if he were wearing bunny ears, I don't think it at all beyond the realm of possibility that the connections suggested a change in racing tactics to the jockey. I do not mean to take anything away from the horse, but there is indeed a great deal of money involved for the human element...suffice to say, there is at least some amount of strategy involved, which of course, makes it all the more fascinating.

I do not mean to suggest that I imitate the picks of Plod Boy Phil; I do not. However, that contributor has a methodology that has proven successful at times on this board as was the case Saturday, and at severely inflated odds to boot. And, I do believe that he specified above that his wager would be of the "win" variety.

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: The Jockey Club Gold Cup and The Awesome Again

Brontexx — Wed, 02 Oct 2013 12:16:37 GMT

Monarchos Matt I think you are giving too much credit to the human connections and the jockeys of the older horses.I believe after they know how to race and run these horses run differently in some races just simply because they are having days where they feel stronger and more confident and physically at a hundred percent.I dont think either Ron or Mike ran differently because of any tinkering by the trainers or jockeys they did it on their own.These are animals not machines and what you see on paper(PPs) is not the way they will always run.

A comment about a poster named Plod Boy Phil which you seem to follow and play what he suggests.I would like to see this Plod Boy Phil make a COMPLETE suggestion.In otherwords if he picks Ron then what will his actual bet be.I believe betting,and managing ones money is more than 50% of the task when you play ponies for money.

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: The Jockey Club Gold Cup and The Awesome Again

Monarchos Matt — Tue, 01 Oct 2013 13:45:29 GMT

Rusty,

Ya, I actually feel pretty good about the way I predicted the pace in each of the last 3 races, but Little Mike apparently made the same prediction in the Hirsch, altered his running style completely, and threw me for a total loop. Although, given that I'm now an amazing 1-4 when trying to beat him, I suppose I shouldn't be so surprised. Credit his connections for seeing the obvious rabbit and calling the bluff. In retrospect, that race wasn't all that different for Little Mike than when he won the BC Turf rating off the pace at the same distance.

Real Solution was impacted by a wide trip but still looked like the winner coming for home before completely flattening out in the stretch. I expected a more explosive performance but he did post a career high Beyer stretching out and remains very playable on Nov 2, as does his stablemate.

Oh, and it wouldn't have mattered anyway for my Pick 4...after betting Ron The Greek to win last year's BC Classic and this year's Stephen Foster, I'd had enough of his inconsistency and didn't bat an eye when he went off at double his ML. Wish I'd seen Plod Boy Phil's post before then, although I was too shocked by the low odds of the 3 year olds at that point to even think straight...

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: The Jockey Club Gold Cup and The Awesome Again

Brontexx — Sun, 29 Sep 2013 14:27:25 GMT

In retrospect Ron had a great trip stalking the pacesetters.The Equibase chart dosent even have PM in front but those that saw the race know differently.I look forward to what the speed figure boys assign the race.Ron would have won easily anyway but the over 6 length margin looks a lot better than it was because of the SIMPLE FACT that he ran the shortest route around the track.

A lot of punters think you have to pick the winner to be successful as a bettor, but if you can pick the exacta placers then it is an easy bet to play partial or entire wheels to win the exacta even if you use the $1 variety to cover other bets.

Show me someone that can pick horses that come in 1st and 2nd and Ill show you a consistently winning bettor.

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: The Jockey Club Gold Cup and The Awesome Again

Plod Boy Phil — Sun, 29 Sep 2013 12:45:33 GMT

Rusty -

Thanks.

To be honest, I was confident he'd run his best race since the Sunshine Millions, but I certainly did not expect he'd destroy them.

The fact that he had won his two previous starts as a Racing Flow upgrade (2012 SA HDCP and the 2012 Stephen Foster) was cause for optimism yesterday.

Good times.

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: The Jockey Club Gold Cup and The Awesome Again

Rusty Weisner — Sun, 29 Sep 2013 12:18:14 GMT

Monarchos Matt,

I hope this comment isn't taken the wrong way, but that P4 was very haveable -- I say that not gnashing my teeth and pulling my hair out, but with a sense of incurable optimism. I ended up sticking with one horse in the JCGC for a $21 1$ P4, singled the same Laughing entry in a 1/ALL/7 P3 for $7, then made one $7 P3 where I took ALL/2/7. So I can live for another day losing $35.

I liked RTG as a third pick here, just because he was salty and running in a 3yo/4yo mix, and figured him a likely garbage collector (WRONG). The Laughimg entry, meanwhile, was an excellent way to anchor all tickets, in retrospect. Same tickets $105 with RTG and the $1 P4 is like $3700.

That's the way would play it Breeder's Cup Day, betting profligately -- I have a $1000 profit left on the year to throw at it. This was a BC-type result I just wasn't expecting yesterday. Let's see if I have any luck Nov. 2.

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: The Jockey Club Gold Cup and The Awesome Again

Rusty Weisner — Sun, 29 Sep 2013 11:59:49 GMT

Monarchos Matt,

Congratulations. We handicapped that beautifully -- the race for second, that is.