TimeformUS Weekend Plays: The Juddmonte Spinster, The Champagne and the Shadwell Turf Mile

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: The Juddmonte Spinster, The Champagne and the Shadwell Turf Mile

Rusty Weisner — Mon, 07 Oct 2013 15:20:06 GMT

Coldfacts,

I am disappointed Wise Dan lost as I was looking forward to momentum and enthusiasm bordering on hysteria creating a huge betting opportunity against him in the BC. That's not to say I'm a critic or see any flaws with the horse. That's just the game.

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: The Juddmonte Spinster, The Champagne and the Shadwell Turf Mile

Coldfacts — Mon, 07 Oct 2013 10:38:55 GMT

Brontexx,

I am some what confused. I disagree with running style comparison.

I have no desire to have the last word as opinion will always differ.

Peace.

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: The Juddmonte Spinster, The Champagne and the Shadwell Turf Mile

derbygal — Sun, 06 Oct 2013 23:32:53 GMT

Santa Anita:

R8 W/P/S #7

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: The Juddmonte Spinster, The Champagne and the Shadwell Turf Mile

Brontexx — Sun, 06 Oct 2013 15:54:09 GMT

Coldfacts I will repeat what I wrote last time if you wish to act childish and have the last word be my guest.

Coldfacts here is what Age of Reason wrote at 11:29 October 5

Rusty, each set of human eyes will see something different when looking at a horse, Union Rags reminds me of Honor Code are you going to argue this?

That is my opinion are you going to argue my opinion?Do you think your opinion is better than mine?

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: The Champagne and the Shadwell Turf Mile

Coldfacts — Sun, 06 Oct 2013 14:51:32 GMT

Brontexx,

In both of Honor Code's starts he occupied the rare of the field. Union Rags want never a colt that occupied the back of the field and then come flying.

Dialed In and Zenyatta and other are horses with that running style.

Honor Code might compare with Union Rags from a physical angle but not in running style.

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: The Champagne and the Shadwell Turf Mile

Coldfacts — Sun, 06 Oct 2013 14:46:39 GMT

Rusty Weisner,

I had the Silver Max to win and the exacta. However, Winning Prize ran a spotty race due to the surface and did not get up for the tri.

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: The Champagne and the Shadwell Turf Mile

Brontexx — Sun, 06 Oct 2013 14:37:11 GMT

Coldfacts here is what Age of Reason wrote at 11:29 October 5

Rusty, each set of human eyes will see something different when looking at a horse, Union Rags reminds me of Honor Code are you going to argue this?

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: The Champagne and the Shadwell Turf Mile

Coldfacts — Sun, 06 Oct 2013 13:54:26 GMT

Wise Dan had his win streak snapped when least expected and by an opponent who previously won at the G2 level.

What can we learn from his defeat? I would conclude humility and balance.

I have been repeatedly accused of knocking down top horses. I have always regarded such conclusion as misplaced. All I have tried to do repeatedly is to bring balance to over the top and emotionally driven statements/positions.

Euros wise to stay home.

Wise Dan is such a powerful force in the horse racing industry.

Wise Dan will not be beaten for the rest of the year.

The boy wasn't hardly breathing heavy after yesterday's race at Woodbine.

Conservative connections aside, you can't find fault with this horse.

Let the Euros come, they are up against a monster.

I don't believe we will hear "The British are coming, the British are coming.

Wise Dan is, without question, one of the most impressive equine athletes in many decades.

What a shame Fink's homebred couldn't have faced Frankel at Santa Anita.

I believe it is unlikely that the Euros will race Wise Dan.

The above are few of the statements posted in support of Wise Dan. I reviewed most I felt obliged to remind those in awe of Wise Dan and who were of the opinion that he is unbeatable in his current form, of the following:

Such conclusions fail to take into account historic losses recorded by exceptional thoroughbreds.

To suggest that Europe’s top milers should stay home ignores history and the glorious uncertainty of thoroughbred racing.

Next out races are not won on past performances.

Wise Dan has beaten a group of average G2 & G3 horses in 2013.

Thoroughbred racing is at a stage where serious racing enthusiast are not impressed with résumé building races but instead competitive racing involving horse with varying strengths.

Wise Dan's achievements can be celebrated without berating others by suggesting they will be mere race fillers in the BC Turf Mile.

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: The Champagne and the Shadwell Turf Mile

Coldfacts — Sun, 06 Oct 2013 12:38:38 GMT

Brontexx,

Union Rags had more tactical speed than Honor Code. Dialed In is a better comparison as both would occupy the rare of the field and produce explosive late burst of speed to overhaul their opponents.

I doubt HC will be touted in similar fashion as Union Rags as he is a much better bred colt for the Derby distance

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: The Champagne and the Shadwell Turf Mile

Brontexx — Sun, 06 Oct 2013 08:28:22 GMT

To me Honor Code's running style reminds me of Union Rags.UR won this race and another graded sprint by this time.He went on to the Breeders Cup and lost a close finish,I doubt HC goes west for the BC.

The KD this year had a race shape and track that favored closers and with the same trainer of the winner ORB training HC if he continues on the road to the 2014 KD he will be talked about and touted by bloggers much like UR was.

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: The Champagne and the Shadwell Turf Mile

Brontexx — Sun, 06 Oct 2013 08:28:22 GMT

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: The Champagne and the Shadwell Turf Mile

Coldfacts — Sun, 06 Oct 2013 03:37:29 GMT

I can think of a few horse that have a similar profile:

Dialed In

Zenyatta

Victory Gallop

Concern

Monarchos

Giacomo

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: The Champagne and the Shadwell Turf Mile

Coldfacts — Sun, 06 Oct 2013 03:32:07 GMT

Havana: He won or to be accurate, was given the race by the rider of Honor Code. It is inconceivable that a rider with his experience could have exercised such poor judgment.

Havana has to be damaged goods after his effort in the Champagne. He was under immense stress in the last 100 meters and this was reflected in the excessive swishing of his tail.

I sincerely hope he is not pointed to the Breeders Cup Juvenile as he should be put away to recover from his ordeal.

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: The Champagne and the Shadwell Turf Mile

Age of Reason — Sun, 06 Oct 2013 03:29:38 GMT

Rusty, each set of human eyes will see something different when looking at a horse, but here's what mine are seeing: basically, Honor Code is most definitely his father's son. It's almost scary really how much (to me) Honor Code seems to run like A.P. Indy. Of course, he also must have picked up a little bit of grand-dam Serena's Song's turn of foot--though he certainly uses it a bit differently! The Derby Gods (grin) finally put the mythical Late Development Syndrome to bed with A.P. Indy's grandson Orb; could we see the final nail put in LD -syndrome's coffin by a son of A.P. Indy himself winning under the Twin Spires in 2014? I would not be surprised in the least.

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: The Champagne and the Shadwell Turf Mile

Rusty Weisner — Sun, 06 Oct 2013 02:35:13 GMT

I'm curious who people would compare this Honor Code to.

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: The Champagne and the Shadwell Turf Mile

Rusty Weisner — Sun, 06 Oct 2013 02:34:10 GMT

Coldfacts,

I hope you actually bet Silver Max. Romans really seems to have his pair of aces ready this time of year. I'm glad -- just barely -- that I laid off that horse we liked.

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: The Champagne and the Shadwell Turf Mile

Rusty Weisner — Sun, 06 Oct 2013 02:32:06 GMT

"The pace dynamics look horrible for Havana..."

I think it's hard to predict a hotly contested pace. To me it's like picking black or red -- sometimes I'll try to pick the likely closers or the horses with speed, but how do you really predict what's going to happen on the track. If the horses are blazing fast enough they will go through any other speed without resistance, like a hot knife through butter.

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: The Champagne and the Shadwell Turf Mile

Brontexx — Sat, 05 Oct 2013 21:42:22 GMT

Blogger Coldfacts you picked the upsetter of Wise Dan, Silver Max what do you think of Mr Palmer in the Indiana Derby?

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: The Champagne, Shadwell Turf Mile, and Sprint Championship

Rusty Weisner — Sat, 05 Oct 2013 18:25:32 GMT

Plod Boy Phil,

Thanks. You took my comment the way it was meant - not as a snide rhetorical question.

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: The Champagne, Shadwell Turf Mile, and Sprint Championship

Rusty Weisner — Sat, 05 Oct 2013 18:21:37 GMT

Coldfacts,

I don't like him now. I think this race has the earmarks of a real negative predictor, like last year's KJCS at CD last fall.

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: The Champagne, Shadwell Turf Mile, and Sprint Championship

Plod Boy Phil — Sat, 05 Oct 2013 17:26:48 GMT

Flow players very high on Summer Front today. Flashed his talent in the Hill Prince at 3 - set for new best following back to back 'vs Flow Wins'. The Win bet, ExB w/ Wise Dan.

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: The Champagne, Shadwell Turf Mile, and Sprint Championship

Coldfacts — Sat, 05 Oct 2013 15:31:57 GMT

Rusty Weisner

I also like Ride On Curlin. I think he has the speed to compete with the top dogs. I also like Intense Holiday. He appears too slow to win a mile at Belmont but he is a beautiful colt. I have to include him in my wagers as he covers ground efficiently and that's a big plus for me..

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: The Champagne, Shadwell Turf Mile, and Sprint Championship

Coldfacts — Sat, 05 Oct 2013 15:25:09 GMT

There are two 4YOs that I think have a great chance of defeating Wise Dan. Ironically the dams of both horses were sired by sons of the great Kris S.

Winning Prize made a very impressive US debut covering 8F in an Allowance Optional Claim in 1:32.96. The true ability of this 4YO is unknown and he can only get better second time Lasix.

A lot of horses that have invaded from South America have whipped our top horses.

How can we forget likes of the Argentine bred Invasor and Candy Ride? Both were undefeated in 9 races after entering the US. The Brazilian bred Leroidesanimaux became a monster champion miler.

Dismiss this latest Argentine invader at your own peril.

Silver Max has won an amazing 10 races. When he met Wise Dan in the 2012 renewal of the Shadwell Mile he had won 6 of his last 7 races. In those 7 races he covered 62F with his last two prior to the Shadwell Mile being the 10F Virginia Derby and Secretariat. It is therefore no wonder he got killed.

At the end of his 3YO season he was given 7 months off. He must now be a bigger and stronger horse. He enters the 2013 renewal of the SM covering 20F less. This colt will be tough as well.

Wise Dan better be on his best game or he will join Royal Delta as another 1-5 flop.

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: The Champagne, Shadwell Turf Mile, and Sprint Championship

Plod Boy Phil — Sat, 05 Oct 2013 13:29:59 GMT

Rusty -

I would chime in that in general, early maturing 2s tower over their prepubescent rivals. Thus, the greater likelihood of the last out 2 yo MSW winner moving right to a graded stakes win is higher now than in any other time of it's career.

That said, the 'rules' of handicapping should still apply.

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: The Champagne, Shadwell Turf Mile, and Sprint Championship

Rusty Weisner — Fri, 04 Oct 2013 18:07:50 GMT

Douglas Salvatore,

You've picked an exacta of the top two favorites in a 2yo stakes.

Are 2yo's that predictable, even without the surface change?