The most-talented Classic field ever

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re: The most-talented Classic field ever

Coldfacts — Sat, 26 Oct 2013 13:48:50 GMT

Monarchos Matt,

“He's also got Baffert in his corner and should have a lot of upside in a pretty weak edition of this race.”I

Below are some derails for the BCJ probables:-

Strong Mandate - 1st G1, Hopeful

Havana – 1st G1, Champagne

Ride On Curlin – 3rd G1, Champagne

Bond Holder – 1st G1, FrontRunner

Cleburne - 1st G3, Iroquois

We Miss Artie 1st G1, Breeder’s Futurity

New Year Day’s - last Out winner

Tap It Rich – Last Out winner

Mexikoma – Last Out winner

Smarty’s Echo – 2nd G1, Breeder’s Futurity

Diamond Bachlor – 2nd , Zuma Beach Stakes

Dance With Fete – 2nd, G1, Del Mar Futurity

Rum Point - 4rh G1 , Breeder’s Futurity

There are four G1 winners in the field. In addition to a G3 winner, there are several other horses that have been in the top four in graded races. This is probably one of the best Juvenile fields on paper.

BTW: No Breeders Cup Juvenile winner has been a second out MSW winner. Tap It Rich will be starting against 4 G1 winners and multiple grades placed horses.

Tap It Rich has a very high mountain to climb.

An interesting longshot is Rum Point. He has been struggling on the synthetic. He will make his dirt debut in the BCJ.

He is well bred being by Derby winning sire Malibu Moon out of a mare sired by Quiet American of Bernardini and Saint Liam broodmare sire fame.

re: The most-talented Classic field ever

Rusty Weisner — Fri, 25 Oct 2013 15:41:44 GMT

Monarchos Matt,

I like your thinking on the Juvenile. You're encouraging me to follow my brain and go against Havana.

By the way, that Teaks North continues to make me queasy. This is a long longshot but he's won at G1, he was competitive with BBK at the distance, his last was probably better than it looked and sometimes these horses, particularly Euros, are late getting their act together reeling in a loose leader. All I'm saying is that I might move this 30 or 40-1 longshots from the ALL ticket only category into the "possible" bin.

I'm at the newer BC thread now.

re: The most-talented Classic field ever

Monarchos Matt — Thu, 24 Oct 2013 18:28:05 GMT

Rusty,

That's a good point you make about the running style of the recent Juvenile winners...keeping in mind of course how ridiculously speed biased last year's races were.

Speaking of Hansen, the horse I think I'm picking to win this is another Tapit colt, Tap It Rich. He's only raced once but broke his maiden over this course going 8f around two turns and posted an 89 Beyer, which is second in the field to Havana's 93. He's also got Baffert in his corner and should have a lot of upside in a pretty weak edition of this race. I won't be playing multi-race wagers that include this one I don't think since I want to avoid the Turf Sprint altogether, but will probably play outright money on him and try to keep Havana off the top line of the exacta. Bond Holder is a bit interesting as well but I'm a bit concerned he'll be the wise guy horse off his SA win and is not fast enough to get to Havana.

Interestingly, the filly I like to upset the Juvenile is also by Tapit, and that is Untapable. She is also lightly raced but improved greatly when moving from 5.5f to 8.5f, and looks to have a lot of upside. Secret Compass has also won over two turns and did it on this track, albeit a bit more slowly, and I could see a horse for the course angle with her, but I don't feel like she is improving as rapidly.

Re: Little Mike- at this point I have to abandon all handicapping logic and try to beat him again for old time's sake. If he wins and ruins my only Pick 4 play of the day, I've still got the late Pick 3 right? Leaning towards Grandeur still as an upset pick there for outright bets and using The Fugue, BBK and Indy Point as well to start the Pick 4. Still early, of course.

re: The most-talented Classic field ever

Rusty Weisner — Thu, 24 Oct 2013 16:24:44 GMT

Monarchos Matt,

This turf sprint could be chalky. I've succumbed many times to the costly fallacy that a race I don't know how to handicap is necessarily "wide open". Mizdirection is a deserving favorite and comes back off the same lengthy layoff as last year after a no-chance effort at Belmont on yielding turf. The two and three finishers from last year also come back. Newcomer Chips All In is a specialist for the course and a contender. The presence of Jeranimo demonstrates this is not a classic "sprint". There are some I'd consider throwouts (Havelock, Tightend Touchdown, Tour Guide, Spring to the Sky). In any case, I don't want to make it an ALL, and can't anyway, with a field of 14.

re: The most-talented Classic field ever

Rusty Weisner — Thu, 24 Oct 2013 16:13:58 GMT

Monarchos Matt,

I'm not sure how much I like Little Mike but I think this race could set up well for him -- it could be like last year, where he follows two outclassed horses with early speed.

re: The most-talented Classic field ever

Rusty Weisner — Thu, 24 Oct 2013 16:05:43 GMT

Coldfacts,

I respect taking a big gamble and hope I can find one worth taking. Maybe you can suggest one for me in either of Saturday's Juvenile races?

Any idea what O'Brien's record is in the BC?

re: The most-talented Classic field ever

Rusty Weisner — Thu, 24 Oct 2013 16:02:34 GMT

Monarchos Matt,

I want to be against Havana because beyond him it seems wide open, but after Hansen and Shanghai Bobby (particularly the former) I won't understimate a very fast horse that can run straight over supposedly more "classic" competitors in this race.

re: The most-talented Classic field ever

Coldfacts — Wed, 23 Oct 2013 22:03:22 GMT

Rusty Weisner,

The transition from turf to dirt is always a concern. You will note I specified that if he takes to the dirt he will be tough. I happen to think he will.

It is reported that he likes firm fast ground. The surface at SA will be fast.

4YOs have dominated the BCC with 13 victories. He is a 4YO.

His sire raced on dirt. His dam sire hails from the Blushing Groom line. What is significant about the Blushing Groom line? Three horses from that broodmare sire line have done well in the BCC:

Giant’s Causeway: Storm Cat by Miraih’ Storm by Rahy by Blushing Groom (2nd BCC)

Awesome Again: Deputy Minister by Primal Force by Blushing Groom (1st BCC)

Macho Uno: Holy Bull by Primal Force by Blushing Groom (4th & 5th BCC)

Declaration of War: War Front by Tempo West by Rahy by Blushing Groom??

It will be a big gamble but it's one I am willing to take.

re: The most-talented Classic field ever

Rusty Weisner — Wed, 23 Oct 2013 20:54:58 GMT

Monarchos Matt,

Mizdirection might be a legitimate favorite in the Turf Sprint but, like you, this is not a race I'm real confident about and will hope for a longshot; in any case, I'll wait on PPs.

re: The most-talented Classic field ever

Rusty Weisner — Wed, 23 Oct 2013 20:42:49 GMT

Monarchos Matt,

Pace is a thing I have a hard time predicting. Skrying and Teaks North both make me a little queasy in that regard, but I think I'd be nuts to bet them.

I like Dance to Bristol best, too, though she'll be a co-favorite.

I use the P3s as hedges and crazy longshot catchers and take more of a stand on the P4s. Dank will be a single in the early P4 (R4-7) and I don't think I'll play any other tickets in that sequence; all the other races look pretty wide open. I'll play multiple tickets in the late P4, with The Fugue and one or possibly more of Private Zone, Wise Dan and Game On Dude. My preferences among these are The Fugue and Private Zone, so I hope to win some money on them in P3s before the last two races. I think Wise Dan and Game On Dude are legitimate favorites and should be the poorest odds of the day, so don't relish the thought of either betting for or against them.

re: The most-talented Classic field ever

Monarchos Matt — Wed, 23 Oct 2013 20:35:53 GMT

The turnback angle is a good one but I just fear that Sweet Lulu is a cut below her older peers here. But I agree, Groupie Doll appears extremely vulnerable as the favorite...not sure I want to play against her altogether though. I think the synthetic versus dirt angle is important here and Dance to Bristol is the only one that fits that bill and has run consistent 95+ figures. Her 106 tops the field in fact, although that was back in April.

re: The most-talented Classic field ever

Rusty Weisner — Wed, 23 Oct 2013 20:22:09 GMT

I think the F&M Sprint is wide open with a vulnerable returning champion. Besides the obvious favorites, 3-yo Sweet Lulu, on the turnback, intrigues me because she seems to have a chance of being unchallenged speed. Judy the Beauty seemed to run right by Groupie Doll.

re: The most-talented Classic field ever

Monarchos Matt — Wed, 23 Oct 2013 19:58:50 GMT

Rusty,

That's a good point about having to use all three of BBK, Little Mike and Real Solution if you use one. Still makes me a bit uneasy to play against any of them, especially Real Solution, who I think had a wide trip and was probably best despite flattening out late. Then again maybe he is more of a 10f horse, although it didn't look that way in the Million the way he was coming on late.

Are you saying that you plan to single The Fugue on one ticket and then go deeper in others that are live to other singles? Makes sense to me. I just am not sure I can support her as my top pick if she goes off as the favorite. Grandeur is definitely a horse that needs the extra ground. He had a terribly wide trip in the Million and still made up 6 lengths over the last furlong to finish only 4.5 lengths off the winner. Then he came back to win his next race overseas. As you mentioned, he's won at Santa Anita. Lots of shipping around this year I guess, but at likely 5 times the odds of the favorite, I like what I see.

I would LOVE to use Dank as a single to anchor that early pick 3...but I have a lot of work to do on the races on the other side of that. The Juvenile Fillies is as wide open a race as I see on the entire card, and anything could happen in the FM Sprint. I'm leaning towards Dance to Bristol as my top pick. She seems to have had an excuse in her last and is the most tested and successful at 7f on dirt.

Skyring should have something to say about the pace in the Turf if anything...And, I actually liked Turallure that year as my top pick in the Mile. Not Court Vision, though.

re: The most-talented Classic field ever

Rusty Weisner — Wed, 23 Oct 2013 19:27:33 GMT

Monarchos Matt,

Watch, it'll be a Skyring/Teaks North exacata, a la Court Vision/Turallure.

re: The most-talented Classic field ever

Rusty Weisner — Wed, 23 Oct 2013 19:19:34 GMT

Monarchos Matt,

Grandeur likes SA but is considered a cut below The Fugue. She should be the favorite, but I'm still hoping that the crowd likes the rest of this strong bunch to make her an overlay.

re: The most-talented Classic field ever

Rusty Weisner — Wed, 23 Oct 2013 19:10:09 GMT

Monarchos Matt,

I like it when I'm faced with Which One Doesn't Belong scenario. Three of the strongest contenders -- BBK, Little Mike and Real Solution come out of the same race. I feel like if I take one I have to take them all. I'll opt for the single alternative I like better. I don't see where distance is an issue for The Fugue. In fact, it just gives her more ground to make up for any mistakes.

I'm against Point of Entry, too.

Regarding Dank, I wouldn't worry about value on BC day; better to nail one down. A P3 with Uncle Mo and Goldikova paid $60-1, if I recall correctly, and the chalky Uncle Mo P4 was $1100-1, so there's a good chance of recouping bets even if it's all chalk in one sequence. Plus, crude as it is, on BC day I choose singles in most races and play for/against: if my favorite loses I have a good enough chance of getting a longshot on an alternate ticket. I likely come out ahead if I get just two singles on the day, while if I were to get three or more...

I will also likely try two or three longshots as win, exacta, DD or P3 singles, but I don't have any in mind yet. That's why I'm here!

re: The most-talented Classic field ever

Rusty Weisner — Wed, 23 Oct 2013 18:48:51 GMT

Coldfacts,

Not biting. I think Declaration of War is one of those usual suspects we see every year. I won't make him a toss-out, but I don't like a horse that has never won on dirt. And is this the distance for him, anyway?

re: The most-talented Classic field ever

Monarchos Matt — Wed, 23 Oct 2013 18:00:10 GMT

Rusty,

I need to watch some tape of The Fugue. Are you of the opinion that she is better at 12f than 10f? That's a key point if so...

Otherwise I feel like I'm having to re-handicap the Arlington Million at a longer distance, while throwing in two proven 12f horses in Big Blue Kitten and of course Point of Entry, who is a total question mark after the layoff; I lean towards avoiding him.

Of course I will also avoid Little Mike and will not be persuaded otherwise.

I should point out that in the Arlington Million, my two top selections were Indy Point and Real Solution, but that if the race had been contested at 12f, my choice would undoubtably have been Grandeur.

As for Dank, she'll probably be my most certain win pick all day, but isn't likely to offer much value.

re: The most-talented Classic field ever

Monarchos Matt — Wed, 23 Oct 2013 17:48:21 GMT

Coldfacts,

I don't disagree with you that Silver Max is a talented horse who may be stronger now after having been overused as a 3 Yo. However, up until the Shadwell, which I am sure you agree was contested under unusual circumstances, he had won impressively but with noticeably lower Beyer figures than Wise Dan:

Winning turf races:

Wise Dan- Maker's Mile (100), Woodford Turf (104), Firecracker (101), Fourstardave (106), Woodbine Mile (108)

Silver Max- Oceanport (102), Bernard Baruch (97)

Of course Beyers are not the defining handicapping tool, but they can be useful in determining separations in form cycles and in overall body of work. They can also help to uncover throw-out races. For as much as has been made regarding Wise Dan having won over poly before, the horse has focused strictly on turf races for the last year and a half.

Two additional considerations:

1) Who is likely to be tired from a career best effort on a relatively unfamiliar surface- Dan or Max?

2) Who is more likely to be compromised by the presence of Obviously in the Mile- Dan or Max?

I will pose the same question to you- do you really believe it is wise to leave Wise Dan completely off your multi-race tickets?

To answer you- no, I will not single Wise Dan, as it appears Olympic Glory will make the jump across the pond. He must be feared...

I do however like Declaration of War as a value play in the Classic. It is a big IF as to how he handles dirt, but 15-1 might be worth finding out...

re: The most-talented Classic field ever

Rusty Weisner — Wed, 23 Oct 2013 17:32:27 GMT

I am impressed with Sweet Reason but am inclined to treat her as a vulnerable favorite exporting her style to SA.

re: The most-talented Classic field ever

Rusty Weisner — Wed, 23 Oct 2013 17:09:59 GMT

Monarchos Matt,

You forgot to mention Dank.

re: The most-talented Classic field ever

Rusty Weisner — Wed, 23 Oct 2013 17:00:33 GMT

Monarchos Matt,

Don't be deceived by the Turf sprint. At a track other than SA it's been chalky in recent years, enough for me to make a single of a winning favorite two years back, Regally Ready.

At SA, however, it's a totally different race on the downhill at a long distance of 6.5f. It's not really a turf sprint. Routers have chance, and locals. Check out the top three last year. A longish-odds horse I'd take, for example, would be Caracortado. Maybe I'll be wrong, but I'm going to cross off the 5f and 5.5f sprinters from back East.

I really like The Fugue. I had an epiphany watching the replay of her bottled up last year and then watching her last victory in Ireland: there's no riding the rail over there. Her jockey got taught a lesson at SA last year that I expect him to remember. This horse fits a profile I mentioned: the owner and trainer have a credible case for wanting the firm ground at SA. If you read coverage of the Irish Champion Stakes they were worried about rain and soft ground. They've also skipped the Arc to focus on this.

re: The most-talented Classic field ever

Rusty Weisner — Wed, 23 Oct 2013 16:47:58 GMT

Coldfacts,

Thanks. I am always looking to beat a favorite so I will give Declaration of War a long look.

As far as the surface goes, they can be souped up race day so what's happened at the meet so far may be meaningless. I'll stick to watching Friday.

re: The most-talented Classic field ever

Coldfacts — Wed, 23 Oct 2013 16:12:03 GMT

Monarchos Matt,

“Wise Dan is a single. Obviously is off form and Silver Max isn't beating him twice in a row (or once on turf, for that matter)”

I is my intention to single Silver Max if certain Euros do not show up. However, you have specified that he will not defeat Wise Dan twice. I would appreciate the reasons for your declaration.

Wise Dan won his 1st G1 race as a 4YO in the Clarke Handicap. It was his 8th victory from 14 starts.

Silver Max won his 1st G1 race as 4YO in the Shadwell Mile. It was his 11th victory from 22 starts and he was runner up 5 times.

When Silver Max met Wise Dan in the Shadwell Mile it was his 22nd start. Wise Dan was making his 26th. This means between ages 2 and 3 Silver Max contested 15 races just one short of Wise Dan’s total of 14 as 4YO.

It is clear Silver Max was over raced as 3YO with 10 starts covering 80F. He was rested for 5 month and brought back as a bigger and stronger 4YO. The horse that defeated Wise Dan is not one that is ordinary. He has won 11 races and he is just a 4YO.

Wise Dan is an aging 6YO who will be making his 27th start in the BCM (Turf). A bigger, stronger and talented 4YO will defeat an aging 6YO every time. He just got away from the 4YO Animal Kingdom who had one race for the year entering the 2012 BCM.

Do you seriously believe it is wise to single Wise Dan?