TimeformUS: Top Last-Out Speed Figures in the Breeders' Cup

re: TimeformUS: Top Last-Out Speed Figures in the Breeders' Cup

Forbidden Apple — Fri, 01 Nov 2013 13:26:18 GMT

3 Plays on B.C. Friday:

Race 8- win bet on #4 Brujo de Olleros

Race 9- across the board bet on #9 Dancing House

Race 10- straight exacta, #4 Royal Delta over #3 Close Hatches

re: TimeformUS: Top Last-Out Speed Figures in the Breeders' Cup

Coldfacts — Fri, 01 Nov 2013 13:23:27 GMT

DIRT MILE: I am intrigued my Holy Lute and believe he is a very solid longshot.

His sire is the two times Breeder Cup Sprint winner and his dam was sired by the great Holy Bull.

The way he covers ground is beauty to see. He has tactical speed and is very resolute in the last two furlongs of his races.

He was produced by a lightly raced well bred mare and that’s all I need to know.

His connections are probably the only ones that know how good this colt is. It is therefore not surprising that they have chosen this tough spot for colt who broke his maiden in August 2013.

Based on his almost perfect conformation and the effortless manner in which his energy efficient strides cover ground, I have no option but to include him in my exotic wagers.

NB: If his price is worth the risk I will be making a W/P wager.

re: TimeformUS: Top Last-Out Speed Figures in the Breeders' Cup

Monarchos Matt — Fri, 01 Nov 2013 03:36:45 GMT

Rusty,

True, I can't let those pieces of information completely talk me out of my gameplan at this late hour, although I find them interesting nonetheless.

I'll justify sticking with my plays as follows:

I can see why Tap It Rich is a downgrade. I actually agree with that. Funny thing is that I think he is going to see the same stalker friendly scenario here, perhaps even tenfold. This one of the weakest Juvenile fields I can ever remember, and if ever there was a year to take a shot on a lightly raced maiden winner, this is it. He benefited from a pace meltdown in his debut and he is going to benefit from an even bigger one Saturday. I hope.

Private Zone I have a tougher time grasping why he is a downgrade to begin with. It looks to me like he set pretty impressive fractions and fought back and held gamely after being briefly challenged/ passed in the stretch. He got eyeballed and he won. And this is his 3rd off the layoff. And he's been working like a monster. And he has the second highest Beyer in the field on the upswing of a form cycle. I don't know, this is probably the race I'm least confused by. The only horse I can see beating him is Fast Bullet. I'll play those two in exactas with Justin Phillip but I feel like there is a large gap between those three and the rest of the field.

re: TimeformUS: Top Last-Out Speed Figures in the Breeders' Cup

Coldfacts — Fri, 01 Nov 2013 02:40:29 GMT

SECRET COMPASS DOWNGRADE!!!

When Secret Compass met She's A Tiger in the (G1) Debutant, She’s A Tiger previously finished 2nd in the (G2) Sorrento. In addition, she had two victories from her first two starts.

Secret Compass entered the Debutant off a MSW victory. She’s A Tiger was therefore the more accomplished of the two. It is therefore not surprising that she was 10L behind and was beaten 4L.

When the fillies met again in the G1) Chandelier, She’s A Tiger had 3 victories including a G1 and runner up finish in a G2. Secret Compass had a MSW victory and a 4th place finished in the Debutant.

Her victory over the more accomplished G1 winner results in a down grade.

That does not compute!

re: TimeformUS: Top Last-Out Speed Figures in the Breeders' Cup

Rusty Weisner — Thu, 31 Oct 2013 20:32:14 GMT

I need to get two more nights of sleep on all this. The way will become apparent to me on waking Saturday morning.

re: TimeformUS: Top Last-Out Speed Figures in the Breeders' Cup

Rusty Weisner — Thu, 31 Oct 2013 20:28:39 GMT

Plod Boy Phil,

Fiendish.

Nevertheless...I just looked at the chart for Market Quote. Seems different to me; didn't make up any ground during the early contentious pace; TIR did.

We'll see if I'm willing to bet you're wrong.

re: TimeformUS: Top Last-Out Speed Figures in the Breeders' Cup

Plod Boy Phil — Thu, 31 Oct 2013 20:28:29 GMT

Rusty -

'PBP can be wrong'....I second that emotion !

Regards.

re: TimeformUS: Top Last-Out Speed Figures in the Breeders' Cup

Rusty Weisner — Thu, 31 Oct 2013 20:22:15 GMT

Monarchos Matt,

PBP can be wrong. I'm inclined to be warned off Private Zone simply because he's chalk, but this is the fastest of these horses. He will have the lead and on a track like last year's he can win.

re: TimeformUS: Top Last-Out Speed Figures in the Breeders' Cup

Plod Boy Phil — Thu, 31 Oct 2013 20:18:27 GMT

Rusty -

I always like it when 'with Zip' winners like TIR have trouble at the start. I recall a horse last spring by the name of Market Quote . This filly won her debut with the aid of an Extreme for Closers - she too broke far behind her field. She returned as the odds on favorite to win an Alw1x race and was defeated. To my knowledge, she has yet to win again.

re: TimeformUS: Top Last-Out Speed Figures in the Breeders' Cup

Plod Boy Phil — Thu, 31 Oct 2013 20:12:35 GMT

Matt -

Have had my BC work done for a couple days now but hesitated in presenting Flow opinions for fear of muddying the already murky waters.

Best.

re: TimeformUS: Top Last-Out Speed Figures in the Breeders' Cup

Rusty Weisner — Thu, 31 Oct 2013 20:12:33 GMT

Plod Boy Phil,

I looked at Tap It Rich's race and he made up most of the ground he had lost at the start by the half mile. The second place finisher looked more obviously to benefit from the pace. But this is a race I'd like to be talked off of...

re: TimeformUS: Top Last-Out Speed Figures in the Breeders' Cup

Monarchos Matt — Thu, 31 Oct 2013 20:09:20 GMT

Plod Boy Phil,

Oh no! Just when I thought I had it all figured out. Was planning to make a strong play on Tap It Rich and Private Zone. Will re-evaluate based on this information.

re: TimeformUS: Top Last-Out Speed Figures in the Breeders' Cup

Plod Boy Phil — Thu, 31 Oct 2013 20:08:40 GMT

Rusty-

Not in a position to give out too much information, but plenty to be garnished from the three DGs presented.

After last Saturday's late Pick 4 at Belmont, I'm not expecting to catch lightning in a bottle this weekend. Our 'upgrades only P4' cost $4 (1x2x1x2, and returned $3,826.

Good times.

re: TimeformUS: Top Last-Out Speed Figures in the Breeders' Cup

Rusty Weisner — Thu, 31 Oct 2013 19:54:59 GMT

Plod Boy Phil,

There you are. Thanks. I will be taking these last two seriously under advisement.

re: TimeformUS: Top Last-Out Speed Figures in the Breeders' Cup

Plod Boy Phil — Thu, 31 Oct 2013 19:49:16 GMT

Three downgrades of note in the BC:

Secret Compass - a 'with Flow' winner.

Tap It Rich - a 'with Flow' winner in a MSW no less. I'd be eagerly betting against this one in an Alw1x race, never mind a BC race.

Private Zone - his win in the Vosburgh was aided by an Extreme for Speed', and he still barely held. Expecting far less than his best Saturday.

Good luck to all.

re: TimeformUS: Top Last-Out Speed Figures in the Breeders' Cup

Rusty Weisner — Thu, 31 Oct 2013 19:01:38 GMT

Keelerman,

I'm not playing Friday, but will look forward to your picks.

Note about Juv fillies turf and horse not going beyond 6f. In the BC a couple years back I had a rolling P3 sequence where I debated whether to single Wrote or Caspar Netscher (who hadn't gone in a route)...and I chose wrong, costing me $2000. This year I'll be taking both.

re: TimeformUS: Top Last-Out Speed Figures in the Breeders' Cup

Rusty Weisner — Thu, 31 Oct 2013 18:52:47 GMT

Picks:

JuvF: Sweet Reason, Untapable

FMTurf: Romantica, Dank

FMSprint: Dance to Bristol, Dance Card, Book Review

Turf Sprint: Mizdirection, Unbridled's Note, Reneesgotzip

Juvenile: Tap It Rich, New Year's Day

Turf: The Fugue

Sprint: Private Zone

Mile: Wise Dan

Classic: Mucho Macho Man, Declaration of War, Palace Malice, Game on Dude, Fort Larned

Kind of a lame list of favorites, but through the miracle of 50-cent betting I'm playing against these horses as much as I am for them, with the exception of The Fugue and Romantica/Dank, with whom I'm playing P4 tickets. Drawn up about $1200 of tickets, a lot of which are contingent on the outcome of previous races. So that's how much I could lose. But I'm confident I'm coming out ahead. I don't care if it's ugly.

re: TimeformUS: Top Last-Out Speed Figures in the Breeders' Cup

-Keelerman — Thu, 31 Oct 2013 18:27:03 GMT

Rusty Weisner;

I'm not quite done handicapping the Saturday races yet -- many of them have me stumped, to say the least! -- but I'm more-or-less finished with Friday's races, so here are a few quick thoughts on each of those races . . .

Marathon: I really want to like Ever Rider in this race, but his front-running style might not be best for a race of this distance, and he was not nearly as accomplished in his native country as Calidoscopio was, and he'll be only a fraction of Calidoscopio's odds. Worldly is well-bred for this distance and should be able to grind on longer than most of his rivals. Pool Play intrigues me as the only horse in the race to have won at this distance, and maybe his recently-developed habit of losing contact with the field early on will prove beneficial in this very lengthy race.

Juvenile Turf: I feel like Bobby's Kitten is by far the best of the American hopefuls, and I believe he has an excellent chance at upstaging the European invaders, of which I like Giovanni Boldini best. Being proven around left-handed turns is a major plus for me, and he third-place finish to the highly-regarded Toormore in the Vincent O'Brien National Stakes (Ire-I) was respectable enough. For the same reason, I like Outstrip, who ran Toormore to a neck in the Vintage Stakes at Goodwood, proving in that race that he can negotiate a tight turn, albeit a right-handed one. Fans of Poker Player might want to take a look at All Cash, the maiden that finished a close fourth in the Bourbon Stakes. Granted, he didn't quicken as well as I would have liked in the stretch, but he didn't get the best of trips, and is definitely bred for the turf.

Dirt Mile: The fact that Verrazano, Pants On Fire, and Goldencents drew the three outside post positions could make this race ripe for an upset, and with that in mind, I'm leaning toward Golden Ticket. Shortening up in distance, and with a fast pace in front of him, I expect to see Golden Ticket save ground early and come running late under Joel Rosario. Hymn Book also intrigues me off of that promising third-place finish in the Kelso Handicap, and Taptowne could be a factor if he breaks cleanly and makes the lead from the rail.

Juvenile Fillies Turf: The outside draw for Testa Rossi doesn't bother me nearly as much as the outside draw for My Conquestadory, as I expect Testa Rossi to drop back early on and save ground before rallying in the homestretch. On sheer talent, she looks like the best of the Americans to me, and she proved in France that she can win with Lasix, which is a plus. However, the European pair of Al Thakhira and Chriselliam both drew good gate positions, and if they can get the jump on Testa Rossi turning for home, they should prove tough to catch. Vorda merits respect as a group I winner, but having never raced beyond six furlongs -- and never around a turn, for that matter -- I'm having trouble warming up to her chances. That said, this is one of those races where I can't toss anyone with confidence. Street Sailing could be a nice longshot, as her turn-of-foot at Keeneland was exceptional, slow pace or not.

Distaff: Royal Delta should be able to make the lead while breaking from the inside of Beholder, and I don't believe she'll be relinquishing it. Princess of Sylmar can certainly win this, and it's great to have her in the race, but I feel like she'll need a destructive pace duel from Beholder and Royal Delta in order to win, as the latter two have been training so well for this race that I find it hard to envision them both losing.

re: TimeformUS: Top Last-Out Speed Figures in the Breeders' Cup

Monarchos Matt — Thu, 31 Oct 2013 17:40:53 GMT

Rusty,

Thanks. Were you in the chat? Seemed like a lot of people throwing out horse names without angles. Then again I'm trying to do about 10 things at once over here.

Lots to respond to, give me a couple of hours or so.

I agree, cold tip by Coldfacts on Dance Card. Still deciding between her and DTB for my outright play, but both will be used in exactas and Pick 3s.

Growing more concerned about Romantica by the hour. Trying to figure best way to single Dank but hedge profitably.

re: TimeformUS: Top Last-Out Speed Figures in the Breeders' Cup

Coldfacts — Thu, 31 Oct 2013 16:51:25 GMT

Rusty Weisner,

Laugh Track was taken out of his game going that long.

I looked at his strides on dirt and they appeared quite proficient.

This colt is ideally drawn out side the speed and can gradually drop in.

He is a live outsider.

Sum Of The Parts probably had problems in 2013. He will be on the lead with Secret Circle and he is quite capable of making the frame.

re: TimeformUS: Top Last-Out Speed Figures in the Breeders' Cup

Coldfacts — Thu, 31 Oct 2013 16:51:18 GMT

Rusty Weisner,

Laugh Track was taken out of his game going that long.

I looked at his strides on dirt and they appeared quite proficient.

This colt is ideally drawn out side the speed and can gradually drop in.

He is a live outsider.

Sum Of The Parts probably had problems in 2013. He will be on the lead with Secret Circle and he is quite capable of making the frame.

re: TimeformUS: Top Last-Out Speed Figures in the Breeders' Cup

Rusty Weisner — Thu, 31 Oct 2013 16:49:40 GMT

I'll take Baffert's two in the Juvenile. Action.

re: TimeformUS: Top Last-Out Speed Figures in the Breeders' Cup

Rusty Weisner — Thu, 31 Oct 2013 16:42:17 GMT

Monarchos Matt,

Going to take Reneesgotzip, too. That's some "single". I figure one of last year's top three, all aiming for this, will win it.

re: TimeformUS: Top Last-Out Speed Figures in the Breeders' Cup

Rusty Weisner — Thu, 31 Oct 2013 16:40:49 GMT

Monarchos Matt,

Nice work on the chat. You seemed to have caught that gentleman at a loss for words on Sweet Lulu. I'm glad you like Dance Card (tip to Coldfacts for making me look hard at this one).

re: TimeformUS: Top Last-Out Speed Figures in the Breeders' Cup

Rusty Weisner — Thu, 31 Oct 2013 16:38:28 GMT

Keelerman,

Me, too, though I was looking forward to betting against him.

I'm waiting for your picks and insights. I'll need the help.