TimeformUS Weekend Plays: Breeders' Cup Edition

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: Breeders' Cup Edition

Rusty Weisner — Sun, 03 Nov 2013 13:38:23 GMT

My exhaustive recapitulation of another lousy day on the other thread.

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: Breeders' Cup Edition

Rusty Weisner — Sun, 03 Nov 2013 13:36:40 GMT

Ranagulzion,

I think you hit the trifecta in the Classic. Now that merits congratulations.

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: Breeders' Cup Edition

Pedigree Ann — Sat, 02 Nov 2013 22:41:19 GMT

I can simmer down now - looks like they broke out the harrow and gave the track a few passes. But yesterday was ridiculous.

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: Breeders' Cup Edition

Ranagulzion — Sat, 02 Nov 2013 22:14:21 GMT

Rusty Weisner 01 Nov 2013 4:01 PM

Congratulations on calling that F & M Turf exactor Dank/Romantica. Good job.

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: Breeders' Cup Edition

Ranagulzion — Sat, 02 Nov 2013 19:12:33 GMT

Gotta join my buddys Footlick and Pedigree Ann in this game. Where are those ol' rascals KY Vet and Carlos in Cali when we need them? (LOL).

Juvenile fillies - Artemis Agotera

F & M Turf - Dank

F & M sprint - Groupie Doll

Turf Sprint - Mizdirection

BC Juvenile- We Miss Artie

Turf - The Fugue

BC Sprint - Triniberg

BC Mile - Wise Dan

Classic - Mucho Macho Man

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: Breeders' Cup Edition

Footlick — Sat, 02 Nov 2013 16:35:27 GMT

I have no idea if the contest is going on or not but I have st submit picks now so here they are:

Rosalind

Romantica

Teddy's Promise

Reneesgotzip

Mexikoma

Magician

Secret Circle

Silentio

Declaration of War

Good luck all

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: Breeders' Cup Edition

Pedigree Ann — Sat, 02 Nov 2013 16:33:43 GMT

Here are my Equibase contest (which does win-place) picks:

Juvenile fillies - Scandalous Act

Ladies Turf - Tiz Flirtatious

Female sprint - Teddy's Promise

Downhill Sprint - Mizdirection

Juvie boys - Dance with Fate

Turf - Indy Point

Open Sprint - Fatal Bullet

Mile - He Be Fire N Ice (because Acclamation never got the chance to give Unusual Heat a BC winner)

Classic - Game on Dude

Assuming the track plays the same way it did yesterday. I'm really fond of Book Review, but the track is against her. Florida Sire Series has provided 2 BC Juvie Fillies winners, Brave Raj and Awesome Feather, and none of the 'G1' types have impressed me greatly, so...., Indy Point was a first class grass AND dirt stayer in South America; horse who beat him in the Pellegrini placed second in a G1 in France last month - class race.

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: Breeders' Cup Edition

-Keelerman — Sat, 02 Nov 2013 14:09:54 GMT

Good luck, Rusty! I hope you hit it big today!

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: Breeders' Cup Edition

Rusty Weisner — Sat, 02 Nov 2013 13:40:23 GMT

I'm going in. I'll let you know how I do tonight or tomorrow. Good luck to you.

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: Breeders' Cup Edition

Rusty Weisner — Sat, 02 Nov 2013 13:11:20 GMT

Coldfacts,

Admirably long shots, but some of them, like Rosalind, Laugh Track and Great Hot, are at the mercy of a track bias if one exists.

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: Breeders' Cup Edition

Coldfacts — Sat, 02 Nov 2013 12:45:24 GMT

LONGSHOTs/BOMBS

JUVENILE FILLES:

Rosaline I an interesting longshot. Three starts at a mile and longer on three different surfaces. She has only been beaten by combined 4L by Untapable and My Conquescadory. What this big chestnut filly lacks in tactical speed she has in heart. Her enormous strides can play a major padt is she can get close enough early.

Designer Legs won at Saratoga in a good time. She then flopped on a sloppy track and ran an even race in her 8.5F effort on synthetic. She returns to dirt and could surprise

FILLY & MARE SPRINT

The bomb of the day could be Great Hot and Chantal. She finished 8th beaten 41/2L in the Pat Obrien. She was 31/2L behind Dirt Mile winner Goldencents who was second to Fed Biz. She then finished 2nd to Teddy‘s Promise in the A Woman at 61/2F. She has 1 victory at 7F and is in good form. Using Goldencents performance in the Dirt Mile as a measure she must have a big shot.

TURF SPRINT

The last time Capo Bostone returned from 2 month between races he won at 28-1. Without adoubt he has the best turn of foot in the field and is the only 3YO entered. If he is close when they hit the bottom of the hill, step to the cashier.

JUVENILE

Tough race that is primed for an upset. I am attracted to 3 longshots, Smarty’s Echo, Rum Point and Medal Count. Of the 3 only Medal Count has made a start on dirt. Medal cpunt is my #1 amongst them as he is well bred May foal that has been in trouble in both starts. On the first occasion he won by 61/4L and the next he was not persevered with close home.

SPRINT

Sum of The Parts, Majestic Stride and Laugh Track have a lot of appear. Sum of The Parts led the 2012 Sprint as a 3YO. AS a 4YO he must be a stronger horse and will have to be caught.

Majestic Stride has made two winning starts for 2013 and has 5 starts in total. He is relatively unknown quantity. His dam was sired Great Above of Holy Bull fame. Even more important is the fact that Great Above was the dam sire of champion sprinter Housebuster. He like ML favorite Secret Circle are the only ones unbeaten in 2013.

Laugh Track is ideally drawn and is the one most likely to benefit from a pace melt down. Mike Smith can hurt as well. A horse produced by a Touch Gold mare is actually a sprinter. Not possible!

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: Breeders' Cup Edition

Rusty Weisner — Sat, 02 Nov 2013 12:38:59 GMT

Monarchos Matt,

I'm probably down to $700. I'll have a late P4 ticket with the Fugue, but I hope not to be stuck playing the final P3; as I said, I'm pressing my luck showing disrespect to both Game On Dude and Fort Larned, particularly on this track (I feel bad in advance for Flat Out). I'll concentrate more on the R9-11 P3.

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: Breeders' Cup Edition

Rusty Weisner — Sat, 02 Nov 2013 12:32:17 GMT

Keelerman,

I don't often play WPS, but I like WP on Laughing and PS on Lady of Shamrock with a little to win (she's already on my multi-race ticket).

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: Breeders' Cup Edition

Rusty Weisner — Sat, 02 Nov 2013 12:21:34 GMT

Plod Boy Phil,

It's your anniversary here. Last year you meet with universal hoots of derision for being skeptical about the track bias. You've shown me anyway that skepticism about this factor is warranted, but what's your opinion of yesterday?

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: Breeders' Cup Edition

Rusty Weisner — Sat, 02 Nov 2013 12:19:15 GMT

Havana has returned to being an option (and he's now in the 12 instead of the 13).

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: Breeders' Cup Edition

Rusty Weisner — Sat, 02 Nov 2013 12:14:04 GMT

Pedigree Ann,

I saw you over there, too.

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: Breeders' Cup Edition

Rusty Weisner — Sat, 02 Nov 2013 12:13:30 GMT

...Actually, that's a bad omen.

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: Breeders' Cup Edition

Rusty Weisner — Sat, 02 Nov 2013 12:13:05 GMT

Monarchos Matt,

I was just reading Mike Watchmaker's wrap-up and one of the commenters has almost my exact P5 choice, though I go wide in one race, the 4th. So thanks for the reminder.

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: Breeders' Cup Edition

Rusty Weisner — Sat, 02 Nov 2013 12:07:26 GMT

To clarify point about Laughing: a very good bet to hold on for the exacta, if not to win. One of these Euros has a chance of mistiming her run. I like my top three's chances of beating her, but think I'll have her on every ticket.

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: Breeders' Cup Edition

Rusty Weisner — Sat, 02 Nov 2013 12:03:07 GMT

Monarchos Matt,

Thanks for those. I'll use those. I wasn't liking Olympic Glory as a top choice, but that gives me added courage. I didn't want to bet Fast Bullet to begin with, because the horse is so infrequently raced and has moved out of Baffert's barn, but this seals it (Gentlemen's Bet is my third choice).

Any notes on Sweet Reason? I want to play against, because of running style, inflated Beyer, trainer who just won her first graded stake with this horse.

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: Breeders' Cup Edition

Rusty Weisner — Sat, 02 Nov 2013 11:59:56 GMT

Re: track bias.

To quote Tessio in the Godfather, "That messes up all my plans."

Some, anyway. I really liked Dance to B., Dance Card and Book Review and wanted to play these in horizontal and vertical exotics, but I'm promoting Artemis A now. There are some I like less now in the Juv Fillies now, and I now can't make the Florida speedster a toss. I like Private Zone better in the Sprint now, and Ismene is not a toss for me. I like Flat Out less now in the Classic.

The race I'm interested in playing verticals is the F&M Turf, where I like Dank/Romantica,Tiz Flirtatious, Laughing and Lady of Shamrock. I'm inspired by Keelerman's confidence in this horse and a sub-23 final quarter (even if the first was 25-plus). I guess that translates into a 21.0 at SA?

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: Breeders' Cup Edition

Pedigree Ann — Sat, 02 Nov 2013 03:02:02 GMT

If the board tries to make this front-runners' heaven the permanent home of the BC, they will cause the demise of the BC as we know it. If your horse doesn't want to run in the first flight, you have no shot. Buckpasser probably couldn't win a race on this track. And Zenyatta? Forget it - on this surface, she becomes a chronic runner-up. No point in running if your champion closer is guaranteed a humiliation.

On the old Santa Anita dirt track, a horse like My Own True Love Cougar II could close and win; so could Spectacular Bid, John Henry, etc. Can't Stronach hire competent people who can install and maintain a reasonable racing surface? I mean, they blew the first AW installation, and the second one, too, so badly that the state board took pity on them and allowed them to return to dirt. (How did they finesse the law requiring AW?) The track wasn't like this a year ago in the spring, when I'll Have Another was winning his classic preps from behind; what have they messed up since then?

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: Breeders' Cup Edition

Plod Boy Phil — Sat, 02 Nov 2013 00:27:19 GMT

Mary -

Nicely done in the Marathon with the cold exacta box.

Hope that made your day at the windows.

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: Breeders' Cup Edition

Footlick — Sat, 02 Nov 2013 00:24:18 GMT

Congrats to all

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: Breeders' Cup Edition

-Keelerman — Fri, 01 Nov 2013 23:59:07 GMT

Congratulations to TnT, who picked two winners and two runner-ups from five races! You are the winner of our Friday Breeders' Cup Handicapping challenge!

Here are the final standings . . .

1. TnT $64.00

2. Kevin $30.00

3. Fugue for Tinhorns $13.00

4. Monarchos Matt $11.80

4. Footlick $11.80

6. Keelerman $6.40

Good luck tomorrow, everyone! Nine more championship races await!