TimeformUS Weekend Plays from Delta Downs, Churchill, and Betfair Hollywood Park

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays from Delta Downs, Churchill, and Betfair Hollywood Park

Brontexx — Thu, 28 Nov 2013 00:32:47 GMT

The KD fut was a h scratcher now the itch begins in Nov vs Feb.Need at least 50-1 for xtra time value and probably no intrinsick value too far away from the gate.

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays from Delta Downs, Churchill, and Betfair Hollywood Park

Plod Boy Phil — Wed, 27 Nov 2013 23:08:27 GMT

Thanksgiving Eve

Woodbine R7

6 Best Behavior (4-1) - last out she pressed and briefly led an Extreme for Closers. Her prior was modestly 'vs' as well. Nine betting interests remain, but the ML seems optimistic in my eyes.

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays from Delta Downs, Churchill, and Betfair Hollywood Park

Coldfacts — Wed, 27 Nov 2013 02:59:36 GMT

The Giants Causeway sired Pablo Del Monte has made the cut for Pool #1 with 2 victories by a combined 12 1/2L on the synthetic track at Keeneland.

Historically Giant’s Causeway 3YOs never featured in the Derby. However, I like this colt and I am hoping he will make a successful transition to dirt.

His dam line as it relates to his dam sire has rarely featured in the Derby and that is a negative. However, it might take a non-traditional dam line to get Giants Causeway into the Derby mix.

This colt will earn some of my cash as well.

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays from Delta Downs, Churchill, and Betfair Hollywood Park

Coldfacts — Wed, 27 Nov 2013 02:10:00 GMT

The list contains some impressive horses. Interestingly, the Mr. Prospector sire line accounts for 10 of the 24. The A P Indy sire line accounts for 7 and with Honor Code this line probably has the Derby favorite.

Two geldings have won the Derby since 1929 i.e., Funny Cide and Mine That Bird. Interestingly, both have been from The Mr. Prospector sire line. Shared Belief a son of Candy Ride and another gelding rom the Mr. P sire line has been very impressive in two starts. He was produced from a Storm Cat mare and appears to have the requisites speed and stamina to cover 10F in the average Derby time of 2:02.

The speedy 2010 SA Derby winner Sidney’s Candy was sire by Candy Ride and was also out of a Storm Cat mare. He finished unplaced in the Derby. Sidney’s Candy was a need to lead colt but Shared Belief is not.

In 2011 and 2012 Storm Cat mares produced two serious Derby contenders i.e., Dialed In and Bodermiester. I believe Shared Belief will be another serious Derby contender from a Storm Cat mare and he will be my wager in Derby Pool #1.

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays from Delta Downs, Churchill, and Betfair Hollywood Park

Brontexx — Tue, 26 Nov 2013 21:49:27 GMT

I should have added when I write lack of experience and how that relates to a 2yo,is that everything is NEW to him including boarding on a plane and flying across the country to race for only the second time.

He was going to run on a different surface than his only race and running a longer distance.

An analogy he was the visiting team against the rest of the field basically, because they probably at the most had to take a van ride to get to the track,and they have probably already experienced this.

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays from Delta Downs, Churchill, and Betfair Hollywood Park

Brontexx — Tue, 26 Nov 2013 21:29:17 GMT

In regards to GM and one way that I look at this ship from west to east coast by Trainer Ward for the Saudi Arabian owner is:They were very pleased with his first and only race on the AW of Keeneland where its not as easy to win as a speed type horse as it is on a track like lets say Gulfstream or SA.

They got together and decided to roll the dice so to speak and put him in stakes competition in his 2nd race,although this was not a graded stakes race and if his goal was the Kentucky Derby there were no points up for grabs, at least as far as I know.

Ward has accomadations out west because he does this a lot ship from east to west.

The owner dosent run many horses as far as his records that I found.They were just TOO Optimistic in their opinion of their colt after only one race and they took a chance and rolled the dice shipping him across the country.

As I stated before I think the ship affected him more than the equipment,being that he is 2years old and he dosent know the game yet and he might not be talented enough to overcome his lack of experience with pure talent.

This is not my opinion of him going forward as he is only two years old and has only run two races so it is very possible to show improvement in future races.

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays from Delta Downs, Churchill, and Betfair Hollywood Park

Plod Boy Phil — Tue, 26 Nov 2013 17:15:19 GMT

re: Green Mask

His wining debut at Keeneland, while not truly worthy of a downgrade, was 'with' a modestly favorable Flow for Speed. In my world, horses, especially young, lightly raced ones, winning with the aid of race dynamics are always worthy of skepticism, and immediate discard. From my perspective, before even attempting to evaluate whether the blinkers should be on or off the colt, one must ask themselves: Is this horse anything more than just another horse at this point in his career ?

As for the Real Quiet, without referencing figures, it's important to note that in analyzing GM's race on Saturday, the pace setter, Karma King, set an open length lead and still finished ahead GM. If any horse was disadvantaged by being overly aggressive, it was KK.

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays from Delta Downs, Churchill, and Betfair Hollywood Park

Little Bill — Tue, 26 Nov 2013 17:01:51 GMT

I like Noble Moon. Could go this weekend.

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays from Delta Downs, Churchill, and Betfair Hollywood Park

Little Bill — Tue, 26 Nov 2013 16:59:48 GMT

On the lighter side. How can own a horse called the Green Mask, stable colors are green and white, and not use green blinkers. That's what needs to happen.

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays from Delta Downs, Churchill, and Betfair Hollywood Park

Little Bill — Tue, 26 Nov 2013 16:55:43 GMT

Relax bud. Dennis Miller made a living with his rants. Just an observation. It's not THAT derogatory.

My opinion on the subject from a handicapping stand point is, I let the trainer worry about that.

I don't remember. Did you mention the blinkers before the horse lost.

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays from Delta Downs, Churchill, and Betfair Hollywood Park

-Keelerman — Tue, 26 Nov 2013 16:45:04 GMT

With the first Kentucky Derby future wager pool opening tomorrow, I thought it might be fun if we each select two horses from the list and see who has the best luck in picking out future Derby horses. Perhaps one of us will even pick the winner!

I know it will be months before we see the results, but in the meantime, it will offer a bit of interest during the Triple Crown prep season as our horses attempt to advance toward the Derby.

For convenience, here is the list of the twenty-three individuals horses that comprise the pool, along with morning line odds:

1 Almost Famous 20-1

2 Bobby's Kitten 50-1

3 Bond Holder 50-1

4 Cairo Prince 30-1

5 Cleburne 50-1

6 Commissioner 50-1

7 Coup de Grace 50-1

8 Financial Mogul 50-1

9 Havana 30-1

10 Honor Code 15-1

11 In Trouble 50-1

12 Kobe's Back 50-1

13 Mexikoma 50-1

14 Misconnect 50-1

15 New Year's Day 20-1

16 Noble Moon 50-1

17 Pablo Del Monte 50-1

18 Ride On Curlin 50-1

19 Rise Up 50-1

20 Shared Belief 30-1

21 Strong Mandate 30-1

22 Tamarando 50-1

23 Tap It Rich 30-1

Of the horses on this list, I am most intrigued by Strong Mandate and Ride On Curlin. I believe that Strong Mandate was the best horse in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. After breaking from post thirteen, he got into a speed duel with Titan Conquest and Rum Point, who would eventually finish last and next-to-last after forcing Strong Mandate through a half-mile in :45.38 and three-quarters in 1:09.70. Then, nearing the homestretch, favored Havana passed Strong Mandate with a sweeping bid and was two lengths clear of the latter at the eighth pole. At this stage, Strong Mandate appeared to be out of the mix for a top-three finish, but in a remarkable performance, Strong Mandate actually came back at Havana in deep stretch, finishing just three-quarters of a length behind him at the wire. I really like the fact that Lukas is giving him a rest before the Triple Crown prep season, rather than running him in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes or CashCall Futurity. I expect Strong Mandate to be quite a force during the Oaklawn meet.

As for Ride On Curlin, I know he has been a bit . . . well, inconsistent, but he has a couple of very impressive performances on his record, including his third-place finish to Havana and Honor Code in the Champagne Stakes. As a son of Curlin, he should only get better next year, and I like the fact that he has demonstrated versatility in running style.

So the two colts that I'll stick with through thick and thin on the road to the Derby are Strong Mandate and Ride On Curlin. Would anyone else like to join me?

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays from Delta Downs, Churchill, and Betfair Hollywood Park

Coldfacts — Tue, 26 Nov 2013 15:53:45 GMT

Fugue for Tinhorns,

I posted an observation about an aggressive colt with blinkers. A contributor in response cited his/her disagreement.

What you have regarded as rant, is merely my strong views about the mostly unnecessary use of the equipment on young horses.

If you find my repeated opposition to the equipment offensive, you are at liberty to ignore what you perceive to be ranting.

It would have been more meaningful if you had provided an opinion on the merits of affixing blinkers to an aggressive 2YO. Instead, you like so many other contributors seem to take pleasure in ridiculing others for their views.

I remain amazed at the inability of so many to engage in meaningful exchanges that fosters the sharing of ideas and opinions.

This mostly faceless forum seems to appeal to the worst in most of us.

Plod Boy Phil,

I initially assessed you to be a very bright individual. In the past we engaged in meaningful exchanges. You have chosen to avoid such exchanges in recent times and that's your prerogative.

Your continued endorsement of negative comments directed towards me, strongly suggests my initial assessment of you might have been seriously flawed.

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays from Delta Downs, Churchill, and Betfair Hollywood Park

Plod Boy Phil — Tue, 26 Nov 2013 04:34:02 GMT

ya think ?

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays from Delta Downs, Churchill, and Betfair Hollywood Park

Little Bill — Tue, 26 Nov 2013 00:59:54 GMT

This blinkers rant sounds familiar.

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays from Delta Downs, Churchill, and Betfair Hollywood Park

Coldfacts — Mon, 25 Nov 2013 13:35:37 GMT

Blinkers affixed to horses that are aggressive in the earlier portion of races are not well served by the equipment.

In many instances, blinkers are used to induce focus and to get horses into the pace earlier.

GM has a lot of tactical speed that he has aggressively displayed in his two starts. He does not need blinker to get into the pace. With his obvious aggressive nature, the addition of the blinkers will only make him more aggressive.

It appears American trainers are the only group in the world who are of the opinion that blinkers is required attire for 2YOs.

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays from Delta Downs, Churchill, and Betfair Hollywood Park

Brontexx — Sun, 24 Nov 2013 22:16:15 GMT

Its not fair to jump to a conclusion off of one loss OR ONE WIN.I dont know if I agree about the blinkers but I do agree about the cross country ship.IMO if he would have stayed in KY and ran in the race Ffort mentioned I believe he would have run a lot better.

But if GM would have run lights out shipping across the country dont you think he would have been a single entry and not part of the ALL OTHERS ENTRY,I do.

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays from Delta Downs, Churchill, and Betfair Hollywood Park

Little Bill — Sun, 24 Nov 2013 14:49:36 GMT

Shame on me. Did not read the article and was unaware GM was running. I thought the JC at CD 11/30 would have been the natural next race. Must have shipped for surface or competition reasons.

It's not unusual for young ones to regress after running out of their skin on FTL.

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays from Delta Downs, Churchill, and Betfair Hollywood Park

Coldfacts — Sun, 24 Nov 2013 14:09:53 GMT

Brontexx,

Speedy Bob had the impressive MSW winner Beach Hut in the race and he finished off the board. I believe he was 5-2.

It's not fair to jump to conclusion about a horse off one lost. It was in fact the colt's first time against winners and although he lost, he was not disgraced.

I just wished he had relaxed for his rider. It is difficult to properly compare performance to ability when a horse is fighting its rider.

Hopefully the blinkers will be off the next time.

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays from Delta Downs, Churchill, and Betfair Hollywood Park

Coldfacts — Sun, 24 Nov 2013 14:02:38 GMT

Green Mask failed to settle in the RQ just as he did in his debut effort.

I remained puzzled as to why an obviously aggressive colt is affixed with any form blinkers especially when the animal has high cruising speed.

He was beaten by some with more foundation but he ran below expectation.

This one loss will not change my opinion of the colt and I hope the unnecessary head gear will be remove for his next effort.

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays from Delta Downs, Churchill, and Betfair Hollywood Park

Brontexx — Sun, 24 Nov 2013 00:12:15 GMT

Greenie just assured himself a spot on the all others entry and not an individual entry if he would have run to his odds.

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays from Delta Downs, Churchill, and Betfair Hollywood Park

Brontexx — Sat, 23 Nov 2013 22:34:08 GMT

Isnt it funny how two of the biggest sellers of PPs use differing fractional increments.

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays from Delta Downs, Churchill, and Betfair Hollywood Park

Brontexx — Sat, 23 Nov 2013 22:31:51 GMT

Very Good Ffort

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays from Delta Downs, Churchill, and Betfair Hollywood Park

Little Bill — Sat, 23 Nov 2013 22:00:55 GMT

Got the work info off DRF. 6 tenths=3 fifths.

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays from Delta Downs, Churchill, and Betfair Hollywood Park

Brontexx — Sat, 23 Nov 2013 21:49:56 GMT

BTW Saudi Arabia is well represented in the RQ as GM is owned by Abdullah Saeed Almaddah and BH is owned by

Prince Khalid bin Abdullah.

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays from Delta Downs, Churchill, and Betfair Hollywood Park

Brontexx — Sat, 23 Nov 2013 21:41:44 GMT

Ffort we have a discrepancy in regards to the young masked crusader.Here is his last work as per Brisnet 06Nov Kee 5f ft :58ª H 1/2.

Thats 58.3 November 6 at K for anyone that dosent have their reading enhancement with them.If he also worked in 58.6 on the same date, its a non-published.