TimeformUS Weekend Plays: Thanksgiving Weekend Edition

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: Thanksgiving Weekend Edition

Coldfacts — Wed, 04 Dec 2013 15:57:28 GMT

I have been monitoring the number of mares bred by stallions to the success of the resulting offsprings in the Triple Crown in general and the Kentucky Derby in particular.

Based on my records over several years, stallions that are overbred have little success in the TC and particularly the KD.

The recently concluded Kentucky Derby Future Pool #1 contains a number of betting interests and based on the number of mares bred by their stallions, they are highly unlikely to win the Derby. I specify highly unlikely as Thoroughbred Racing is sport of glorious uncertainties.

That said the following betting interests have a big Derby winning hurdle to cross based on the number of mares bred by their respective sires in 2010:

Bobby’s Kitten – Kittens Joy - bred 173 mares

Coup de Grace – Tapit bred 169 mares

Havana – Dunkirk bred 186 mares

New Year’s Day – Street Cry bred 159 mares

Noble Moon – Malibu Moon bred 172 mares

Pablo Del Monte – Giants Causeway bred 217 mares

Ride On Curlin – Curlin bred 150 mares

Shared Belief - Candy Ride bred 172 mares

Tap It Rich - Tapit bred 169 mares

Stallions that have bred 140 mares and lower seem to dominate the TC and Derby.

Of the 21 stallion connected to the 24 betting interest, only 2 sired less than 100 mares:

Honor Code/Commissioner – A P Indy bred 80 mares

Tamarando - Bertrando bred 50 mares

A P Indy and Bertrando are pretty old and that might have accounted for their low numbers. The odds are in favor of one of the three colts connected to A P Indy and Bertrando providing a return on a KTDF Pool wager.

It is highly unlikely that Honor Code's trainer will win back to back Derbies, its just too rare.

Tamarando trainer is well overdue for A Derby winner. However the Relaunch sire line from which Bertrando hails has not feature prominently in the Derby. That negative is eliminated by the dam line that has dominated the TC. Grand dam sire Deputy Minister needs not introduction.

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: Thanksgiving Weekend Edition

Mary Zinke — Tue, 03 Dec 2013 18:35:32 GMT

1. This new format is freak-tatious.

2. Yes, he should be retired. Hates the farm, my a.

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: Thanksgiving Weekend Edition

Mary Zinke — Tue, 03 Dec 2013 18:30:20 GMT

Yes, I like New Year's Day, but as I said, I like Tamarando and Shared Belief better. Tamarando was put in the 1m. Cal-bred stakes instead of the Juvenile. Otherwise, he would have been my BCJ win pick. You may research the reason for that race decision yourself, since I don't get into that subject where my friends are concerned, and therefore we remain friends, see? Anyway. why I picked New Year's Day: He had beaten that good colt Bond Holder in a mdn race at Del Mar, then he didn't race again until the BC Juvenile. I liked Bond holder for one of my exacta box picks, along with the NY speed, Havana, and just before race time, New Year's Day, and I went with "the other Baffert" wps due to them having "faith" in him to run him off of the layoff. Now, I won't pick on anyone's future wager and I didn't make one this early, even with the juicy odds. The Famous Jessie is attending some January get-together in Vegas, so if I play, I'll send funds with her. Gotta let all of the dosage pickies do the research for me. They enjoy that.

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: Thanksgiving Weekend Edition

Coldfacts — Tue, 03 Dec 2013 13:56:34 GMT

"Late Development Syndrome"

The above has been associated with off springs of A P Indy. I have repeatedly reminded the contributor that advances this theory yearly that it is without merit.

Pulpit from A P Indy’s first crop won the Fountain Of Youth and Toyota Blue Grass and finished 4th in the Kentucky Derby.

Aptitude sired by A P Indy finished 2nd in the KD and Belmont.

Bernardini who did not have enough graded earnings to make the Derby won the Preakness. Many have attributed his victory to Barbaro’s misfortune. However, I firmly believe he would have defeated him even in a misfortune free race. Barbaro struggled to defeat Sharp Humor in the FL Derby. No 3YO got close to Bernardini after his 4th place finish in his debut race.

Rags To Riches won the Oaks & Belmont.

The above horses were clearly not impacted by LDS as they won and placed in major 3YO races.

The fact that A P Indy with his Royal Blue blood has not sired a Derby winner to date, this does not reflect LSD in his offsprings.

Mega sire of sires Mr. Prospector sired his 1st Derby at the age of 26. Honor Code from A P Indy's last crop could be the one that elevates him to elite company i.e., the sire of a winner of each leg of the TC.

Danzig, Storm Cat, Deputy Minister, Secretariat, Affirmed, Spectacular Bid to new a few did not sire a Derby winner by the end of their careers.

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: Thanksgiving Weekend Edition

KY VET — Tue, 03 Dec 2013 05:57:55 GMT

please.....new years day? the race was really embarrassingly weak......on any scale..........any 2yr olds run fast? the kentucky races were embarrassing........not hard to figure out people.....the fav.skipped the juv.......he would have been chalk......then the race ran really weak.......not rocket science..........i actually make a little more,if my 2nd horse wins the derby.......im in great shape....the pool closed before the remsen...........

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: Thanksgiving Weekend Edition

KY VET — Tue, 03 Dec 2013 05:50:48 GMT

mary....my old horse came right back, and lost a bob at wire.....what.....having a diff owner is sad? the horse should be retired? horses love to run.......he hates the farm.......next......

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: Thanksgiving Weekend Edition

KY VET — Tue, 03 Dec 2013 05:47:58 GMT

someone please point out......to coldcuts.......that mdn race winners of graded races.....makes my point stronger......somehow, he thinks it makes his case.........this is your brain on drugs......any questions?

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: Thanksgiving Weekend Edition

Coldfacts — Tue, 03 Dec 2013 03:43:46 GMT

To further highlight that the 2YO class of 2013 is not weak the following examples below provide evidence:

2012 -The G1, Hopeful, Champagne and Breeders Cup Juvenile were won by Shanghai Bobby.

2013 - The G1, Hopeful (Strong Mandate), Champagne (Havana) and Breeders Cup Juvenile (New Year’s Day) These colts were considered talented enough skip NW2s to contest G1 Stakes.

2012 – The 2013 early Derby favorite Violence won the Nashua as a next out MSW winner.

2013 - Cairo Prince did the same.

2012 – Uncaptured won the Iroquois and Kentucky Jockey Club.

2013 - Iroquois (Cleburne) and Kentucky Jockey Club (Tapiture). Both horses were eligible for NW2

In 2012 there were 5 graded stakes for 2YOs that were won by two horses. In 2013 those races were won by 5 different horses all of them were MSW winners that qualified for NW2s.

There can be no denying that the talent in the 2YO class of 2013 is deep.

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: Thanksgiving Weekend Edition

Plod Boy Phil — Tue, 03 Dec 2013 00:07:20 GMT

Bel Air Babe, an 0-50 maiden at Mountaineer, won the 1st race tonight.

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: Thanksgiving Weekend Edition

Mary Zinke — Mon, 02 Dec 2013 22:40:11 GMT

Thank you for the advice, Phil. I liked New Year's Day because I was right about the BCJ, but I like The Big Guy's 2 yos better. I missed Conquest's Titan's win, so I will check that out.

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: Thanksgiving Weekend Edition

Plod Boy Phil — Mon, 02 Dec 2013 22:19:58 GMT

Mary -

The BCJ was an Extreme Race for Closers, which in my eyes makes New Years Day's win look so much better than it was. Of course, there's lot's of growing up to be done, but he's in my downgrade bucket for now.

Thus far, two 'speed' horses from that race have run back. One was Rum Point - a miserable failure. The other was Conquest Titan who had them ooooing and aaaaahing after his Alw1x win from far off the pace in the 10th at CD Sunday He's a nice example of how speed in young developing horses should rarely be discounted. In his case, it was 'upgraded speed'.

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: Thanksgiving Weekend Edition

Brontexx — Mon, 02 Dec 2013 22:18:58 GMT

Behind those tiny humans armed with whips and those 1000lb animals that grow and get heavier from 2 to 3years of age especially if allowed to rest on a farm are a lot of red faced humans cursing at the top of their lungs and most of all a lot of greed.

KVet which tax form do you use to file your gains and losses from being a professional gambler?

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: Thanksgiving Weekend Edition

Mary Zinke — Mon, 02 Dec 2013 21:56:03 GMT

Take a breath, KY. Congrats on your horse's win. I just forget to post here sometimes. You know I don't like what happened to your old horse. ("That's part of the game." is coming, right?)

Big Guy's been having good results. I like the Cali babies best so far. Tamarando, Shared Belief, New Year's Day. Also that Delta Jackpot winner, Rise Up. Remsen fractions were kinda weird. Winner came home fast.

Like that Hollywood Derby winner Seek Again very much. He could kick my cali favs' rear ends. Hope you all watched the Citation at BHP with Summer Front just getting beaten by the gorgeous Silentio.

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: Thanksgiving Weekend Edition

KY VET — Mon, 02 Dec 2013 21:31:57 GMT

the cold facts are.......the horses the contrarian posts about, were all really good.......coldcuts posted over 20 horses....none did anything.....he is famous for his stupidity......just gets stupider.....

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: Thanksgiving Weekend Edition

KY VET — Mon, 02 Dec 2013 21:31:57 GMT

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: Thanksgiving Weekend Edition

KY VET — Mon, 02 Dec 2013 21:29:04 GMT

brontexx......im a professional horseplayer......i dont need to work......i've made so much that i started buying horses........in last 2 years, my horses have won 9 out of 17 races.....is that good? jockey cost me a couple i think.....

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: Thanksgiving Weekend Edition

KY VET — Mon, 02 Dec 2013 21:24:57 GMT

Coldcuts......what were the top beyers or brisnet ratings the last 10 years.......look at this crop so far...........end of story.......you keep posting times without variants....this makes you stupider, and stupider...................and coldcuts doesnt need a white jacket.......he wears a white apron ........dishwashers wear those..........

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: Thanksgiving Weekend Edition

Rusty Weisner — Mon, 02 Dec 2013 21:12:10 GMT

Brontexx,

I don't think Uncle Mo was overhyped. He really did run fast in winning what are still the two most prestigious 2-yo races, the Champagne and the BCJuv. It's not his fault if he suffered the effects of what Coldfacts likes to call Pletcher's "high octane program." But you're right, it's wise to be wary of precocity in light of recent years.

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: Thanksgiving Weekend Edition

Coldfacts — Mon, 02 Dec 2013 20:05:21 GMT

Brontexx,

I have already attained several white jackets so I can be excluded from those being monitored.

My crazy status is already known.

We can consider ourselves to be all crazy. We wager hard earned cash on 1000Lbs animal not designed to carry tiny humans armed with whips on their backs requiring them to continue running even when their three energy systems have been depleted.

Exchanging views on a sport and an industry we all love is not a bad thing. There will always be opposing views. How said opposing views are evaluated by others provides a window into the character and maturity level of each contributor.

What is bad is the quest to score points and project others as idiots for their differing views.

Being mean and nasty is seen by some not as a liability but as an asset.

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: Thanksgiving Weekend Edition

Brontexx — Mon, 02 Dec 2013 19:36:01 GMT

To continue on your post Coldfacts

It appears that every year a particular colt is selected to be the next Secretariat and is hyped beyond belief. Union Rags and Uncle Mo preceded Verrazano. My question regarding those horses is usually the same. What have they done to attain super horse status?

The people who rave about their bets in the Derby future pool yearly and repeat the same thing every season hoping to get different results could probably meet the criteria for White Jacket Eligibility dont you think PS this season we are starting 6 months in advance in November instead of February.Thats right Honor Code KD futures bets could qualify for free room and board indefinitely.

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: Thanksgiving Weekend Edition

Brontexx — Mon, 02 Dec 2013 19:24:00 GMT

Dont be surprised if this blog is being monitored for possible white jacket inmates, all of us are possible candidates, maybe some more than others,but we know dont we.

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: Thanksgiving Weekend Edition

Rusty Weisner — Mon, 02 Dec 2013 16:38:03 GMT

Coldfacts,

I agree, there's no reason to think there's something wrong with this crop (good research on the Remsen, thanks). The last three Derby winners (and I'm sure we could go further back) didn't figure prominently as two year olds, and the Breeder's Cup Juvenile has almost become a negative predictor of Derby success. Which is why I don't pay much attention till February. Honor Code winning the Remsen means nothing. Remember the 1-2 finishers last year? Havana seems to fit the Hansen/Shanghai Bobby mold. I'd take "all others" if I were a betting man.

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: Thanksgiving Weekend Edition

Coldfacts — Mon, 02 Dec 2013 16:17:30 GMT

"Verrazano was the favored individual horse in the final of three Kentucky Derby Future Wager pools for 2013”

“Verrazano is the new Number 1 in the National Thoroughbred Racing Association’s weekly poll, topping last week’s chart topper Itsmyluckyday”

Prior to the Derby I viewed many posts showering Verrazano with accolades I considered undeserved. The most egregious was the status of ‘Super Horse.’

Their records do not reflect world records, track records, stake records, largest margin of victory etc. Yet these colts are propelled into super stardom by people blinded by emotions.

With the pending 3YO season, it is hoped that many will remember the lessons learnt from placing horses that have not achieve anything exceptional, on the same level as mega stars of the past.

Separate the emotion from the cold facts!

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: Thanksgiving Weekend Edition

Coldfacts — Mon, 02 Dec 2013 15:39:43 GMT

Brontexx,

"maybe they should send the wagon to your residence to place you in the white jacket and take you away."

You are LOL funny!

re: TimeformUS Weekend Plays: Thanksgiving Weekend Edition

Brontexx — Mon, 02 Dec 2013 14:13:27 GMT

Last season the Louisisana Derby was changed back to 9 furlongs and the race had a large field as well as the preps leading up to it.