New Blogger Keeler Johnson on the Turf Debut of Alpha

re: New Blogger Keeler Johnson on the Turf Debut of Alpha

Carlos in Cali — Mon, 17 Feb 2014 15:43:49 GMT

Keelerman?... What the @#$%!... congrats!

Ranagulzion,

Commissioner will once again defeat the much-hyped Top Billing and take the FOY. He's just getting started.

re: New Blogger Keeler Johnson on the Turf Debut of Alpha

Plod Boy Phil — Mon, 17 Feb 2014 15:21:10 GMT

OP Southwest

I'm on board with Strong Mandate off the 'Quick to Zip' move in the BCJ - an Extreme Race for Closers. He's one of the 3 singles for me in the Late P4 sequence.

re: New Blogger Keeler Johnson on the Turf Debut of Alpha

-Keelerman — Mon, 17 Feb 2014 02:03:22 GMT

Ranagulzion;

I agree, the distance of the Belmont could be a stretch . . . I can't help but remember that Shared Belief is bred on the same Candy Ride/Storm Cat cross as Sidney's Candy, and that does have me worried.

re: New Blogger Keeler Johnson on the Turf Debut of Alpha

Ranagulzion — Sun, 16 Feb 2014 19:23:52 GMT

Keelerman: Shared Belief is obviously a top class performer that might be effective at the distances of the Derby and Preakness but is a very long shot to be a Belmont Stakes contender based upon his pedigree, therefore I wouldn't count him as a good candidate to sweep all three legs of the Triple Crown.

re: New Blogger Keeler Johnson on the Turf Debut of Alpha

-Keelerman — Sun, 16 Feb 2014 18:18:19 GMT

Ranagulzion;

Thanks for your thoughts! I have similar thoughts regarding Strong Mandate. I'm hoping -- even kind of expecting -- that he'll romp to an easy victory tomorrow, and I will be disappointed if he doesn't. But that said, if someone else steps up and gives him a fight, and they both wind up 8+ lengths clear of everyone else, I would be happy with that.

As for Top Billing, I hope he shows a bit more tactical speed in the Fountain of Youth Stakes, because I share your hope that he has what it takes to end the Triple Crown drought, and I think he'll need more versatility in order to complete the sweep. I've become convinced that winning the Belmont Stakes nowadays requires being reasonably close to the early pace, a strategy used so successfully in recent years by Palace Malice, Union Rags, and Ruler On Ice, and nearly as successfully by Oxbow, Paynter, and Stay Thirsty. With that in mind, I've got my fingers crossed that Shared Belief comes back in time to make the Derby, because I feel he has the right blend of tactical speed and tractability to sweep the Triple Crown -- assuming that the other questions marks you mentioned (dirt, distance) are within his capabilities.

The next few months should be exciting!

re: New Blogger Keeler Johnson on the Turf Debut of Alpha

Ranagulzion — Sun, 16 Feb 2014 17:08:37 GMT

Keelerman: If Strong Mandate, with a clean break, doesn't romp the Southwest by the proverbial city block or win with a ton-in-hand then consider him just a moderate sort.

re: New Blogger Keeler Johnson on the Turf Debut of Alpha

Ranagulzion — Sun, 16 Feb 2014 16:41:36 GMT

Keelerman: My early fancy for the Kentucky Derby has been Honor Code since right after his impressive unner-up effort in the Champagne last season. I haven't seen any reason to change my mind about his superiority over this crop for going ten furlongs. Shared Belief would have the edge at a shorter distance but he has too many questions to answer at this point (surface, distance and soundness).

The other colt that has my very serious attention is Top Billing. I like this colt as one of the very few that has the pedigree and potential to win all three legs of the Triple Crown. In fact, if he can win the Fountain of Youth which is coming up as a very knotty affair with some other serious emerging talent (Wildcat red, General a Rod and Almost Famous) I'd stick my neck out and tout him as the best prospect of breaking the Triple Crown drought since Eskendereya ...BUT ...I'm not saying that just yet ...only observing and assessing.

Regarding your interest in Ride on Curlin, I think that he's either a sprinter/miler or a late developer that has shown ability but hasn't come to hand yet. Based on his pedigree (broodmare by Storm Cat and inbred to Bold Ruler with not enough stamina influences in the first generations)he's more than likely a stretch out sprinter.

re: New Blogger Keeler Johnson on the Turf Debut of Alpha

-Keelerman — Sun, 16 Feb 2014 01:50:53 GMT

Congratulations, Producer! You have won our handicapping contest!

Here are the final standings . . .

Producer - $20.60

RobbieJoe25 - $9.80

Mary Zinke - $8.20

Plod Boy Phil - $4.60

Fugue for Tinhorns - $0.00

Keelerman - $0.00

Thanks to all for playing! And thanks to Plod Boy Phil for helping spread the word! :)

re: New Blogger Keeler Johnson on the Turf Debut of Alpha

Little Bill — Sun, 16 Feb 2014 00:33:38 GMT

Am I going to sneak into this contest with Craftsman?

re: New Blogger Keeler Johnson on the Turf Debut of Alpha

-Keelerman — Sat, 15 Feb 2014 23:30:53 GMT

No change in the standings after the King Cotton Stakes. Two races to go!

re: New Blogger Keeler Johnson on the Turf Debut of Alpha

-Keelerman — Sat, 15 Feb 2014 22:44:09 GMT

Thanks for joining in, everyone! Here are the standings after the first two races of the contest:

RobbieJoe25 - $5.20

Plod Boy Phil - $0

Keelerman - $0

Producer - $0

Mary Zinke - $0

Good luck!

re: New Blogger Keeler Johnson on the Turf Debut of Alpha

Mary Zinke — Sat, 15 Feb 2014 21:35:53 GMT

Mac Diarmida: Cozy Kitten

King Cotton: Picko's Pride

Santa Maria: Let Faith Arise

El Camino Real: Dance With Fate

re: New Blogger Keeler Johnson on the Turf Debut of Alpha

Mary Zinke — Sat, 15 Feb 2014 21:21:53 GMT

Hi, Keelerman.Nice to see your blog. I've been busy and didn't know about this blog until Phil posted something at the other Brisnet one. I missed The Very One, and I think the Barbara Fritchie was re-scheduled for next week, but I'll try to post picks for the others. Not much time to look. GL all.

re: New Blogger Keeler Johnson on the Turf Debut of Alpha

ROBBIEJOE25 — Sat, 15 Feb 2014 18:30:51 GMT

GP RACE-9:PREFERENTIAL

GP RACE-10:AMEN KITTEN

OP RACE-9:PICKOS PRIDE

SA RACE-8:ONDINE

GG RACE-8:DANCE WITH FATE

re: New Blogger Keeler Johnson on the Turf Debut of Alpha

Producer — Sat, 15 Feb 2014 18:21:35 GMT

The Very One Stakes - Left a Message

Hi Keelerman, great post, great to see you here.

I'll throw in my selections for the contest:

The Very One Stakes - Left a Message

Mac Diarmida Stakes - Alpha

King Cotton Stakes - Picko's Pride

Santa Maria Stakes - Iotapa

El Camino Real Derby - Tamarando

re: New Blogger Keeler Johnson on the Turf Debut of Alpha

-Keelerman — Sat, 15 Feb 2014 17:46:50 GMT

Here are my contest selections!

The Very One Stakes (gr. III): Anjaz

Mac Diarmida Stakes (gr. II): Alpha

King Cotton Stakes: Picko's Pride

Santa Maria Stakes (gr. II): Ondine

El Camino Real Derby (gr. III): Enterprising

For anyone who still wishes to join, please note that Laurel Park has canceled racing today, and thus the Barbara Fritchie Handicap will not be run.

re: New Blogger Keeler Johnson on the Turf Debut of Alpha

Plod Boy Phil — Sat, 15 Feb 2014 16:40:35 GMT

Saturday Contest

GP 9th 5 Preferential

GP 10th 1 Suntracer

OP 9th 2 Mico Margarita

SA 8th 3 Ondine

GG 8th 8 Dance With Fate

Good luck all

re: New Blogger Keeler Johnson on the Turf Debut of Alpha

Little Bill — Sat, 15 Feb 2014 14:22:41 GMT

Shame about Laurel canceling. Loved a deep closer (Bomb) in a field with 10 lead types.

re: New Blogger Keeler Johnson on the Turf Debut of Alpha

Plod Boy Phil — Sat, 15 Feb 2014 13:38:55 GMT

Thanks KJ -

I notified a few regulars of the contest 'upstairs' on the latest of what is now a 3 way Blog duel here at Unlocking Winners.

re: New Blogger Keeler Johnson on the Turf Debut of Alpha

-Keelerman — Fri, 14 Feb 2014 21:37:04 GMT

Great point, Byerly! All the more reason to like Alpha's chances tomorrow!

Plod Boy Phil;

I just watched the opener at Santa Anita. Great pick with "A Toast to You!" :)

re: New Blogger Keeler Johnson on the Turf Debut of Alpha

-Keelerman — Fri, 14 Feb 2014 21:30:39 GMT

It looks like the Southwest Stakes has come up very deep! I'm hoping for strong performances from Strong Mandate and Ride On Curlin, who sit third and tenth on my most recent Kentucky Derby rankings. In particular, I'm hoping that Ride On Curlin returns to the form he showed last year in finishing third to Havana and Honor Code in the Champagne Stakes.

Speaking of Ride On Curlin, does anyone have an opinion on his recent allowance victory? I thought it was a strong effort overall, given that he survived chasing a :21.80 opening quarter, but his final quarter of :27.79 seconds does worry me a bit. And given the huge variety of running styles he has demonstrated during his relatively short career, I don't have a clue where he will be early on in the Southwest.

If anyone has any thoughts, I'd love to hear them!

re: New Blogger Keeler Johnson on the Turf Debut of Alpha

Byerly — Fri, 14 Feb 2014 20:40:18 GMT

A little late to the game. For Bernardini, don't forget European winners Biondetti (G1), Gamilati (G2W), Theyskens' Theory (G3W, G1 placed), etc.,

re: New Blogger Keeler Johnson on the Turf Debut of Alpha

-Keelerman — Fri, 14 Feb 2014 17:00:36 GMT

Thank you, JayJay! It's always great to hear from you!

Is anyone up for an informal handicapping contest tomorrow? Same style as we've done in the past, with mythical $2 win/place wagers on each selection and the highest total payoffs determining the winner.

Here's what the contest race schedule would look like, along with post times:

4:03: The Very One Stakes (gr. III) at Gulfstream

4:24: Barbara Fritchie Handicap (gr. II) at Laurel

5:03: Mac Diarmida Stakes (gr. II) at Gulfstream

6:09: King Cotton Stakes at Oaklawn

7:00: Santa Maria Stakes (gr. II) at Santa Anita

7:15: El Camino Real Derby (gr. III) at Golden Gate

(all times Eastern)

Anyone interested?

re: New Blogger Keeler Johnson on the Turf Debut of Alpha

JayJay — Fri, 14 Feb 2014 05:03:59 GMT

Keelerman : Well deserved and excited to see you with your very own blog here at Bloodhorse. Have always had much respect for you and your posts, you've always been fair and honest. Looking forward to reading your blogs! Congrats!

re: New Blogger Keeler Johnson on the Turf Debut of Alpha

-Keelerman — Fri, 14 Feb 2014 03:26:35 GMT

Thank you for those kind words, Ranagulzion! I really appreciate them!

Who is your early pick for the Kentucky Derby? I'm on board the Top Billing bandwagon, but Bayern certainly caught my eye with his allowance victory this afternoon. The performance reminded me quite a bit of Bodemeister's maiden victory two years ago. Any thoughts?