El Camino Real Continues SHOWdown Drive to $1 Million

re: El Camino Real Continues SHOWdown Drive to $1 Million

Plod Boy Phil — Tue, 18 Feb 2014 13:00:07 GMT

Rusty -

On the surface, I see no reason on the surface to discard Strong Mandate as a Rebel contender. He clearly needed the race, and ran well after a slow start and wide trip behind the forwardly placed winner.

re: El Camino Real Continues SHOWdown Drive to $1 Million

Rusty Weisner — Tue, 18 Feb 2014 12:47:10 GMT

A little help, people. No one reminded me to factor in outside post positions at Oaklawn at 8.5f.

I still like Strong Mandate. Oxbow got hung wide in a couple of his Derby preps, too.

re: El Camino Real Continues SHOWdown Drive to $1 Million

Coldfacts — Mon, 17 Feb 2014 16:19:17 GMT

The 2014 renewal of the Southwest appears to be the best field assembled in the last 10 years. The race has proven to be a heaven for favorites. This race has also proven to be very unkind to closers. It will be contested at 1 1/16m for the 2nd time. It is difficult to assess whether the extra 1/2F has been beneficial to closers as the 2013 renewal was contested of a sloppy/muddy track and the loose on the lead horse made all convincingly.

The Wayne Lukas trainer Strong Mandate is the worthy ML favorite. I like Strong Mandate as the history of this race suggest his tactical speed and proven class should be a potent combination for his opponents. However, I am concerned about his mixed record beyond 7F.

He finished dissapointing 7th in the Champagne and he surrendered the lead in the BCJ quite quickly to Havana. Although resolute to the line, the like of Bond Holder, Tap It Rich and Maxekoma were closing on him rapidly from the back of the field on a speed bias track.

I absolutely hate chalks and I am tempted to throw Strong Mandate out of the exacta despite his credentials. However, that would be dangerous. I will therefore key the Tiznow colt with Bourbonize, Ride On Curlin, Louies Flower, Paganol and Fire Starter. I will also reverse the bet. Just in case Strong Mandate repeats his Champagne performance, I am also going to box the five horses beneath him.

I am hoping Coastline and Tapiture become victims of the expected hot pace and the closers can benefit. The colts I am really interested to see perform are Bourbonize, Paganol and Fire Starter.

re: El Camino Real Continues SHOWdown Drive to $1 Million

Pedigree Ann — Mon, 17 Feb 2014 15:17:45 GMT

So where is the Southwest analysis? Monday A. M. at 10 EST.

re: El Camino Real Continues SHOWdown Drive to $1 Million

Plod Boy Phil — Mon, 17 Feb 2014 15:16:23 GMT

Santa Anita R5 5 Abide in Me (6-1) comes into this 6.4f turf sprint off back to back upgrades as the front-runner of two Closer favoring races, including an Extreme at 8f on the turf in which he stayed on well into mid stretch.

re: El Camino Real Continues SHOWdown Drive to $1 Million

Plod Boy Phil — Mon, 17 Feb 2014 03:13:45 GMT

Late P4 at Oaklawn:

R7) 10 Belle Natalie

re: El Camino Real Continues SHOWdown Drive to $1 Million

ROBBIEJOE25 — Mon, 17 Feb 2014 00:58:27 GMT

That was a nice second VET, at great odds.... Congrats

re: El Camino Real Continues SHOWdown Drive to $1 Million

Plod Boy Phil — Sun, 16 Feb 2014 23:29:32 GMT

correction: BC Friday Speed Bias fell between important and severe

re: El Camino Real Continues SHOWdown Drive to $1 Million

Plod Boy Phil — Sun, 16 Feb 2014 23:26:33 GMT

We recorded a moderate to important Speed Bias on BC Friday. There was No Bias on Saturday despite what some talking heads could not grasp as late as the BCC.

As for the BCJ, it ranks in the top 5% of Most Closer favoring Flows going 8.5f since SA went back to dirt (~250 races.

re: El Camino Real Continues SHOWdown Drive to $1 Million

Rusty Weisner — Sun, 16 Feb 2014 22:22:20 GMT

Kevin,

SA was not a conveyor belt BC Day. While it's a day I prefer to forget, I remember that much. Very kind to closing efforts: Ria Antonia, New Year's Day, the "Z" horse that beat Flashback. Others got up for second off big runs.

I feel like 2-1 is generous for Strong Mandate off the effort, out of the 13-hole no less.

re: El Camino Real Continues SHOWdown Drive to $1 Million

Kevin — Sun, 16 Feb 2014 21:21:20 GMT

Phil, I feel Strong Mandate earned his reputation based on the mud aided Hopeful romp. I was not impressed with the BCJ. Track was a conveyer belt all day. Relative to other races, the splits weren't that tough. Not sure how that race was a flow for closers. I saw two horses on the lead who don't want 1 1/16th. He might prove me wrong, but for now, is a bet against. Southwest is a closers race (in my opinion).

re: El Camino Real Continues SHOWdown Drive to $1 Million

Rusty Weisner — Sun, 16 Feb 2014 20:05:09 GMT

I might try the troubled Fire Starter and Bourbonize under those two in tris.

re: El Camino Real Continues SHOWdown Drive to $1 Million

Rusty Weisner — Sun, 16 Feb 2014 19:46:14 GMT

I think Strong Mandate is a monster who's only had one bad race. I will bet against Tapiture on the rail. Ride On Curlin' is fast, and sharp off a sprint, but seems able to run a good race from off the pace. Chalky, but I'll take Strong Mandate and Ride On Curlin' exacta.

re: El Camino Real Continues SHOWdown Drive to $1 Million

Plod Boy Phil — Sun, 16 Feb 2014 15:36:53 GMT

Curious the dislike of Strong Mandate as a horse - he set the pace of the Extreme Race for Closers that was the BCJ. Speed horses exiting said event have fared well.

re: Roger Rocket

His MSW was win was in the top 5% of Most Closers Favoring races run at the distance since the return to dirt at SA. There is little to no chance those dynamics replay themselves in a far more talented field. Additionally, the stretch from a 5.5f debut to 7f has always been a negative for me.

re: El Camino Real Continues SHOWdown Drive to $1 Million

Kevin — Sun, 16 Feb 2014 14:17:58 GMT

Obviously I mean the 1A in the Southwest. All the better he's grouped. Never liked Strong Mandate.

re: El Camino Real Continues SHOWdown Drive to $1 Million

Pedigree Ann — Sun, 16 Feb 2014 03:32:21 GMT

Well, that's two down, and two winners, which I didn't expect. I mean Tamarando was the class horse of the field, but after the half in - what was it? nearly 50 I think - chart isn't up yet - anyway, I didn't expect him to win with that slow early pace. Oh, well, here's hoping I can get one on the board on Monday.

re: El Camino Real Continues SHOWdown Drive to $1 Million

Plod Boy Phil — Sat, 15 Feb 2014 16:48:17 GMT

GP R2 I'll take the

4 Saratoga Karaoke off back to back 'none chance' trips in speed favoring events facing MSWs

re: El Camino Real Continues SHOWdown Drive to $1 Million

Kevin — Sat, 15 Feb 2014 15:58:53 GMT

For the Southwest, I'm going with a closer. Seems to be way too much speed. I like the #6 and #12 for the pace set up. Arroyo had choice of either and went with the maiden. Winning at 20% is good enough for me.

re: El Camino Real Continues SHOWdown Drive to $1 Million

Kevin — Sat, 15 Feb 2014 15:49:03 GMT

One race for Saturday. #5 in the 2d at GP.

re: El Camino Real Continues SHOWdown Drive to $1 Million

Plod Boy Phil — Sat, 15 Feb 2014 13:36:59 GMT

Handicapping contest 'downstairs' on Keelerman's Unlocking Winners Blog - check it out

re: El Camino Real Continues SHOWdown Drive to $1 Million

Mary Zinke — Sat, 15 Feb 2014 06:39:19 GMT

Only one I know is the 3. GL, KY.

re: El Camino Real Continues SHOWdown Drive to $1 Million

KY VET — Sat, 15 Feb 2014 05:51:59 GMT

my filly runs.......1st time........

re: El Camino Real Continues SHOWdown Drive to $1 Million

Mary Zinke — Sat, 15 Feb 2014 04:16:27 GMT

I went 8,5,4 top picks, then 3 and 7 as alternates in a contest. I rarely play GGF, except occasionally turf stakes there.

re: El Camino Real Continues SHOWdown Drive to $1 Million

Mary Zinke — Sat, 15 Feb 2014 03:52:11 GMT

KY, If you mean TBG's 4 at GGF, then he's what's known as the class, but none of my business the boy hasn't had a rest and he is starting to be way late, but then what do I know. Can't leave him out, but I also like 8,5,and 7.

re: El Camino Real Continues SHOWdown Drive To $1-million

KY VET — Sat, 15 Feb 2014 01:33:49 GMT

mary z......big horse runs tomorrow......what ya think?