Can 'Vicar' Avoid Trouble in the Risen Star?

re: Can 'Vicar' Avoid Trouble in the Risen Star?

-Keelerman — Wed, 26 Feb 2014 03:57:40 GMT

Thanks for your thoughts, Plod Boy Phil! I really appreciate that you took the time to write all that up. Your analysis of track and pace biases are very insightful, and I'll be sure to keep your thoughts in mind for the future!

re: Can 'Vicar' Avoid Trouble in the Risen Star?

Plod Boy Phil — Tue, 25 Feb 2014 00:40:41 GMT

Keelerman -

- On the subject of a Speed bias on the Gulfstream dirt track on Saturday:

We detected a speed favoring surface. In other words, the 'modest bias' is unable to support the upgrading or downgrading of performances on it's own strength, but it does play an important role in supporting those races on the card that also had Speed favoring Flows.

On that note, if I may. It's important to differentiate between Bias, a figure calculated on as few as 5 races a day, and Flow, or race shape, which is calculated using track and distance specific models derived from hundreds of races. Imagine trusting the accuracy of 10 rolls of the dice or 500 rolls of the dice in determining the true odds of rolling a 7. As a result, the degree to which Flow ranks over Bias is ~ two fold.

- GP, R6, Alw1x, Winner: Constitution - A speed favoring race Flow combined with the speed friendly surface to create a speed favoring race scenario. That said, the race falls slightly outside the guidelines for upgrading or downgrading. Since guidelines are made to be tested, my current stance is to give modest upgrades to Tonalist and Mexicana, and give a thumbs down to Constitution.

- GP, R11, FOY, Winner: Wildcat Red - a perfectly 'neutral' race Flow more than offsets the speed friendly surface. As a result, there are no upgrades or downgrades exiting the FOY. As for Top Billing, his performance was that of an improving colt lacking speed that steps up into legit Graded stakes. He's no Orb at this stage, nor does not he have the wave of Lasix driven improvement to ride like last year's winner enjoyed for three months.

Bottom-line: As I blogged on the 'top floor of this Unlocking Winners stack' Sunday morning, I regard the top two in the FOY as having performed leaps and bounds better than Constitution did in his win.

- I am of the belief that one of the two engaged in the race long duel in the FOY, Wildcat Red and General A Rod, will not recover in time to move forward.

- I'm also of the belief that the energy distribution by Constitution was that of a turf winner, not that of a 9f dirt horse. If pressed to maintain contact with legitimate pace over a distance of ground, he'll come up empty. While his debut was pleasing to the eye, it was not special when analyzed using our methods. He may of course develop into an exceptional race horse, but currently, there's nothing to suggest he's capable of maintaining the same high cruising speed and finish.

As for the Risen Star, there's nothing from Flowville to make any of them anything other than 'just horses' for now.

Thanks.

re: Can 'Vicar' Avoid Trouble in the Risen Star?

-Keelerman — Mon, 24 Feb 2014 21:53:28 GMT

I'm glad you asked, Plod Boy Phil! Having taken a day to let the dust settle, here are a few of my thoughts on the results of the weekend races . . .

* I, like many, thought there was enough evidence of a speed bias at Gulfstream on Saturday to consider Top Billing's performance in the Fountain of Youth to be superior to that of the top two finishers. I really think he has the most potential moving forward out of this race. But that said . . .

* Joel Rosario gave Top Billing a virtually perfect ride in the Fountain of Youth, avoiding ground loss on the first turn and maintaining great position around the far turn. While a track bias may have hindered Top Billing's efforts to catch the front-running leaders, he also received as good a trip -- under the circumstances -- as his connections could have hoped for, yet still fell a bit short.

* I was surprised by the odds in the Risen Star Stakes. Prior to seeing the morning line, I assumed that Gold Hawk would be sent off at around 15-1, with Vicar's in Trouble, Intense Holiday, Hoppertunity, Rise Up, Albano, Commanding Curve, and maybe even Emmett Park receiving more support. Yet at post time, Gold Hawk was sent off at 6.70-1, less than half the 13.60-1 price of Albano, who had beaten Gold Hawk fairly and squarely in the LeComte!

* Speaking of the Risen Star, Intense Holiday and Albano put on a nice show in finishing just a nose apart at the wire, but even though they earned a respectable Beyer speed figure for their efforts, the race in general reminded me a lot of the 2012 Risen Star, won in similar photo-finish style by El Padrino over Mark Valeski. Those two colts earned a strong speed figure as well, yet both proved disappointing in their subsequent Triple Crown endeavors. I'm not saying that Intense Holiday and Albano can't be factors as the Derby Trail continues, but given Intense Holiday's previous record in graded stakes races, I'm going to be keeping a close eye on how the Risen Star horses perform in their next starts.

* I will be especially interested in seeing how Vicar's in Trouble fares next time out. I was very surprised to see him so far back early on, and I was impressed with the run that he made around the far turn to get into contention. Sure, he flattened out in the homestretch, but remember how Oxbow won the 2013 LeComte in a romp, came back to finish fourth in the Risen Star (albeit a close fourth), and eventually went on to win the Preakness? I'm not counting out Vicar's in Trouble just yet.

* If you believe there was a track bias at Gulfstream on Saturday, you have to be at least a bit skeptical of Constitution's allowance victory, even if he was impressive. I personally thought that Mexikoma ran rather well in his first start since the Breeders' Cup, and I think he could take a big step forward next time out. But I don't think any of the horses from this race would have challenged for victory in the Fountain of Youth, given that Wildcat Red and General a Rod set a much faster pace in the Fountain of Youth than Constitution did in the allowance race, and that they maintained a good pace all the way to the finish while recording a faster final time.

I'd love to hear your thoughts, Plod Boy Phil, on the possibility of a track bias at Gulfstream on Saturday!

re: Can 'Vicar' Avoid Trouble in the Risen Star?

Plod Boy Phil — Mon, 24 Feb 2014 16:04:32 GMT

Host -

Any post race comments on either of the 3 yo Stakes, or Constitution's Alw1x win ?

re: Can 'Vicar' Avoid Trouble in the Risen Star?

-Keelerman — Sat, 22 Feb 2014 17:42:05 GMT

In the fifth race at Gulfstream today -- a nine-furlong maiden special weight for three-year-olds -- I really like the chances of Strong Stipulation. I've had my eye on this Graham Motion-trainee ever since his name showed up in the nominations for last years' CashCall Futurity (gr. I). He made his debut on February 1st, finishing a late-running second in a 6 1/2-furlong maiden special weight at Gulfstream, and given his pedigree, he should love the additional distance of today's race.

re: Can 'Vicar' Avoid Trouble in the Risen Star?

-Keelerman — Sat, 22 Feb 2014 15:05:38 GMT

Just heard that Casiguapo has been scratched from the Fountain of Youth.

re: Can 'Vicar' Avoid Trouble in the Risen Star?

-Keelerman — Sat, 22 Feb 2014 15:04:19 GMT

Brontexx;

I found it on Formulator. If you click on Todd Pletcher's name, it will bring up his trainer profile, which includes a button near the top-right corner labeled "Modify Filters." If you click on that, you can sort through his trainer statistics in many different ways. In finding the statistic on his turf-to-dirt starters, I selected "Past Year" in the time frame option, and "Turf to Dirt" in the surface category. This will bring up a list of all his turf-to-dirt starters during the last year, which can be sorted by finishing position, Beyer speed figure earned, final odds, and such. Formulator certainly can be helpful for examining trainer statistics in greater detail!

re: Can 'Vicar' Avoid Trouble in the Risen Star?

El Kabong — Sat, 22 Feb 2014 14:20:27 GMT

PomDeTerre,

I don't think he's making excuses, just pointing out an obstacle that each will have to deal with if they are going to win that the others do not have to face. How many times have we reviewed the Derby and said, So and So got the best trip but Mr. X would have won with a better trip. Point is, getting a good trip is key to any race. As the favorite, they should be able to handle it, but in this case, these are young horses who haven't mastered their own style of running so who knows how they'll react. It's not an excuse, it's a legit concern for those horses in both races. All Keelerman is pointing out is that there is an opportunity for an upset if they don't handle the challenge. I like the Commish in the FOY and I've heard some say he is compromised by his rail post(i don't get that, but I've heard it said). Personally, I think with JV on his back he will take advantage of that spot to set himself up for a perfect stalking trip. In the Risen Star, my pick, Commanding Curve is just inside of the favorite in post 13. At the Fairgrounds I don't think it's a problem because you have a long backstretch and the longest stretch from turn to finish to pick off tiring horses while staying out of trouble. I'll Box 8,9,13,14 in this one.

re: Can 'Vicar' Avoid Trouble in the Risen Star?

Brontexx — Sat, 22 Feb 2014 13:12:29 GMT

Keelerman yes thats the stat with all the samples.BTW where did you get that detailed data?

re: Can 'Vicar' Avoid Trouble in the Risen Star?

Sail On — Sat, 22 Feb 2014 03:42:43 GMT

Vicar's In Trouble will "win" by runing this race even if he actually loses it. He doesn't need to win, just do his best, learn to race in a crowded field, and earning Derby points would be a bonus.

re: Can 'Vicar' Avoid Trouble in the Risen Star?

Plod Boy Phil — Sat, 22 Feb 2014 02:09:32 GMT

Fair Grounds Saturday

The day's best from Flowville is Mister Mardi Gras, regardless of which event they choose. The Mineshaft (R12) is my personal preference.

re: Can 'Vicar' Avoid Trouble in the Risen Star?

PomDeTerre — Sat, 22 Feb 2014 01:43:27 GMT

It's a shame that the author of this article is already creating excuses for losing for the probable favourites in both of these races. One might also make the same statement if they drew the rail. Allow them run their respective races; ultimately the BEST horse at that distance, handling the track conditions on that day will win (barring accident/injury)- that's what makes it horseracing- finding that needle in the haystack.

That being said, I'm picking Wildcat Red to win and exacta of him General a Rod in the FOY. Rise Up to win and Vicar's in Trouble exacta for the Risen Star; Gold Hawk, Son of A Preacher, Hoppertunity and Albano in no particular order are giving me agita as to choose to round out super.

re: Can 'Vicar' Avoid Trouble in the Risen Star?

Plod Boy Phil — Sat, 22 Feb 2014 01:38:51 GMT

VET -

That's a lay-up.

re: Can 'Vicar' Avoid Trouble in the Risen Star?

KY VET — Sat, 22 Feb 2014 00:40:08 GMT

It might be a surprise, that i question the soundness of Vicars.........look for this horse to be on the shelf soon..........

re: Can 'Vicar' Avoid Trouble in the Risen Star?

-Keelerman — Sat, 22 Feb 2014 00:22:53 GMT

Brontexx;

Thanks for your comment! I assume you're referring to Todd Pletcher's impressive turf-to-dirt statistic? I hadn't seen it when handicapping the race, but I did a bit of checking after reading your comment, and here's what I came up with: Over the last year, fifty of Todd Pletcher's horses have made the turf-to-dirt transition, and sixteen have won, for a win percentage of 32%. Of those sixteen victories, four came in maiden special weights, five came in maiden claiming races, three came in allowance/allowance optional claiming races, one came in a claiming race, two came in ungraded stakes races, and one came in a graded stakes. Six of the victories came in races that got rained off the turf, including the lone graded stakes victory, which was the 2013 National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame Stakes (gr. III) at Saratoga.

I hope that helps!

re: Can 'Vicar' Avoid Trouble in the Risen Star?

Brontexx — Fri, 21 Feb 2014 23:31:01 GMT

The ones picking We Miss Artie wouldnt have been convinced by the Pletcher return on investment on the formulator would you.

Just a hunch if you were to go back and study the samples for this stat, I would guess that 1 this angle dosent have many samples and, 2 none of the samples have occurred in a graded stakes race,but with Pletcher I could be wrong because he runs so many horses in stakes competition.Looking forward to any and all replies that are precisely on this topic, nothing related as far as breeding,his pps,etc.Just on the angle that is on the Formulator,if you dont know what it is, then you cant reply with intelligence.

re: Can 'Vicar' Avoid Trouble in the Risen Star?

Minnesota Kid — Fri, 21 Feb 2014 17:33:46 GMT

Wildcat Red wires the FOY field, pays $17.60 to win.

re: Can 'Vicar' Avoid Trouble in the Risen Star?

-Keelerman — Fri, 21 Feb 2014 17:33:22 GMT

On this weekend one year ago, we saw all three 2013 Triple Crown race winners in action -- Orb won the Fountain of Youth, while Palace Malice and Oxbow were third and fourth in the Risen Star. Question to all: Are the future stars of the 2014 Triple Crown in action this weekend?

re: Can 'Vicar' Avoid Trouble in the Risen Star?

-Keelerman — Fri, 21 Feb 2014 17:03:37 GMT

neighlygo;

It's interesting that you like C. Zee and Almost Famous, because I really wanted to mention them in my analysis, but didn't have enough space. I feel that Almost Famous' fourth-place finish in the Holy Bull was pretty strong, given that it was his first start since early November, and he surely needed the race.

As for C. Zee, I like that he showed a great deal of speed in the Hutcheson Stakes, for that sprinting ability should put him right near the front in the Fountain of Youth. With the race ending at the sixteenth pole, instead of the traditional finish line, the ability to be on or near the lead at the top of the stretch could prove to be a major advantage!

re: Can 'Vicar' Avoid Trouble in the Risen Star?

neighlygo — Fri, 21 Feb 2014 03:57:07 GMT

It's great to hear that you're drawn to We Miss Artie too. I also have thoughts of putting C.Zee and Almost Famous and Top Billing into my mix. What fantastic athletes in the FofY as well as a couple other races on Saturday at Gulfstream. It's going to be a great day, I can't wait!