TimeformUS Saturday Plays from Gulfstream and Fair Grounds

re: TimeformUS Saturday Plays from Gulfstream and Fair Grounds

Rusty Weisner — Sun, 23 Feb 2014 15:16:33 GMT

Coldfacts,

I hate turf horses on dirt, particularly in preps for the world's premier dirt race.

re: TimeformUS Saturday Plays from Gulfstream and Fair Grounds

Rusty Weisner — Sun, 23 Feb 2014 00:23:05 GMT

I've got the 4,8 boxed in the last at FG. For $20. To win it all back, see?

And then it's back to betting one prep race a weekend until I can get away for a blowout day, hopefully in March, maybe Rebel weekend. In the red $250 this year.

re: TimeformUS Saturday Plays from Gulfstream and Fair Grounds

Monarchos Matt — Sat, 22 Feb 2014 23:58:55 GMT

Rusty, that's a true point. But that Kitten was also in the photo finish! Still not a bad day to hit 2 of my 3 win picks.

Since I'm playing with a small amount of house money now, why not roll it into the Mineshaft? I like Fordubai best here. Horse for the course and on the upswing, plus my Arlington bias. Would like to give Plod's Mister Mardi Gras a look as well. Trying to structure it...

re: TimeformUS Saturday Plays from Gulfstream and Fair Grounds

Rusty Weisner — Sat, 22 Feb 2014 23:53:55 GMT

I didn't like the irrational impulse many of us succumbed to (including me to the tune of $8) to play this FG race as if a crazy longshot were likely to win it because it's happened a couple times in the past two years. It's irrationality alloyed with greed. I'll have to laugh it off.

re: TimeformUS Saturday Plays from Gulfstream and Fair Grounds

Rusty Weisner — Sat, 22 Feb 2014 23:49:08 GMT

Monarchos Matt,

You're playing multi-race bets. You can't bet 'em all, much less win 'em all. And Skrying wasn't your first pick! That "Kitten" was. So don't sweat it: you'll get it when it counts.

re: TimeformUS Saturday Plays from Gulfstream and Fair Grounds

Monarchos Matt — Sat, 22 Feb 2014 23:48:00 GMT

Wow, what a run from Intense Holiday, who closed well into soft fractions. I threw some small win money on him after he drifted up to 5-1 so I wouldn't hate myself if he won and I missed the exacta (which I did), but that's a very small condolence for losing the Pick 3...although the payoff, at $158 for a $0.50 bet, seems a bit disappointing ($260 theoretical parlay...)

re: TimeformUS Saturday Plays from Gulfstream and Fair Grounds

Rusty Weisner — Sat, 22 Feb 2014 23:46:41 GMT

Monarchos Matt,

Good news. Neither of your 30-1 shots won the Risen Star. I ended up playing Intense Holiday in exactas with all the longshots everyone picked here, plus Hoppertunity. Nuthin'!

I want to see the Beyer. I figured Intense Holiday would step up a few points, for something between 90-92 for dull race figure. I think Vicar's In Trouble has shot his wad, like Vyjack last year.

re: TimeformUS Saturday Plays from Gulfstream and Fair Grounds

Rusty Weisner — Sat, 22 Feb 2014 23:43:31 GMT

That was fun, anyway. I should have stayed away from the "action" and just stuck with my prep picks. Pick the wrong other speed horse in the FOY. Live to the late P3 at FG - maybe I can make my money back. Have the 2,5,7 in R12, 4, 8 in R13. Regardless, I'll live to play again.

re: TimeformUS Saturday Plays from Gulfstream and Fair Grounds

Monarchos Matt — Sat, 22 Feb 2014 23:22:14 GMT

Alrighty then, moving along, won't make the same mistake I made last time and forget to bet my longshot horse to place. Dumb, dumb, dumb, especially with a Live Pick 3.

Place bets on Quick Indian, Emmett Park. Those two keyed underneath Intense Holiday in an exacta.

re: TimeformUS Saturday Plays from Gulfstream and Fair Grounds

Monarchos Matt — Sat, 22 Feb 2014 23:16:19 GMT

Rusty- That will be much easier to do if one of my 30-1 shots doesn't win the Risen Star! Oh my, what a crazy game this is.

re: TimeformUS Saturday Plays from Gulfstream and Fair Grounds

Monarchos Matt — Sat, 22 Feb 2014 23:08:01 GMT

Skyring second in a photo. Absolutely brutal beat.

re: TimeformUS Saturday Plays from Gulfstream and Fair Grounds

Rusty Weisner — Sat, 22 Feb 2014 23:07:56 GMT

Monarchos Matt,

What a bizarre race. Try to ignore the outcome and savor the thrill you just had.

re: TimeformUS Saturday Plays from Gulfstream and Fair Grounds

Monarchos Matt — Sat, 22 Feb 2014 22:44:04 GMT

Rusty- Thanks, now let's see if I can just get to the Risen Star live to 4. Would feel pretty good about that, with a couple of long odds horses in there!

re: TimeformUS Saturday Plays from Gulfstream and Fair Grounds

Rusty Weisner — Sat, 22 Feb 2014 22:31:49 GMT

Nice pick with Untapable, Monarchos Matt.

re: TimeformUS Saturday Plays from Gulfstream and Fair Grounds

Monarchos Matt — Sat, 22 Feb 2014 22:13:56 GMT

Rusty- Your longshot play in the Rachel Alexandra is going off at SIX times the ML! Good luck!

re: TimeformUS Saturday Plays from Gulfstream and Fair Grounds

Monarchos Matt — Sat, 22 Feb 2014 22:10:40 GMT

Here goes nothing:

Pick 3 9-11:

Untapable/ Gentlemen's Kitten, Skyring/ Intense Holiday, Hoppertunity, Quick Indian, Emmett Park

Will bet Untapable to place here as a hedge against losing Pick 3.

re: TimeformUS Saturday Plays from Gulfstream and Fair Grounds

Rusty Weisner — Sat, 22 Feb 2014 20:07:16 GMT

Aw, heck, I'll hope for a scenario like last year and consider Top Billing with two of the likely speed I prefer:

12,8,5

I'll try Penwith in R9.

I also like Kevin's Love's Last Chance in R8; didn't look like he had a good trip or a good ride.

R10 makes multi-race exotics for me hard: 9 horses so far.

re: TimeformUS Saturday Plays from Gulfstream and Fair Grounds

Rusty Weisner — Sat, 22 Feb 2014 19:36:10 GMT

I'll play FG R9-12. I'll do rolling P3s.

I'll try a longish-odds horse in R9, the 7, who finished behind the very strong Unbridled Forever and Divine Beauty in a stakes on this track.

R10 has the shortened field now, maybe one can steal it from DNB: 4,5,8,9

R11: Intense Holiday

R12: the older ones: 2,5,7

R13: 4,8

I'll try the 8 in R12 at Gulfstream, second start dropping in class against a bunch of other logical contenders at the level.

re: TimeformUS Saturday Plays from Gulfstream and Fair Grounds

Plod Boy Phil — Sat, 22 Feb 2014 18:45:39 GMT

Eagerly waiting the return of Normandy Invasion.

re: TimeformUS Saturday Plays from Gulfstream and Fair Grounds

Plod Boy Phil — Sat, 22 Feb 2014 18:33:46 GMT

Keelerman -

With nothing in the 5th, I'm in for a fin on your pick.

re: TimeformUS Saturday Plays from Gulfstream and Fair Grounds

Plod Boy Phil — Sat, 22 Feb 2014 18:09:37 GMT

Oaklawn, R5 7 Legend Forever pressed the pace of a closer favoring race last out. The 3yo's previous was a pressing effort in an Extreme for Closers - that race winner was Ride On Curlin. Today, connections remove the blinkers indicating a return to the off the pace tactics that produced his lifetime best at Hawthorne.

re: TimeformUS Saturday Plays from Gulfstream and Fair Grounds

-Keelerman — Sat, 22 Feb 2014 17:42:33 GMT

In the fifth race at Gulfstream today -- a nine-furlong maiden special weight for three-year-olds -- I really like the chances of Strong Stipulation. I've had my eye on this Graham Motion-trainee ever since his name showed up in the nominations for last years' CashCall Futurity (gr. I). He made his debut on February 1st, finishing a late-running second in a 6 1/2-furlong maiden special weight at Gulfstream, and given his pedigree, he should love the additional distance of today's race.

re: TimeformUS Saturday Plays from Gulfstream and Fair Grounds

Brontexx — Sat, 22 Feb 2014 16:34:08 GMT

Coldfacts GL with your bet, I dont have much outlay yet on Commissioner,but if he wins he wont be 22-1 in the next KD future wager.BTW I hope he comes in 2nd because then his hype wont be enough to drop his odds so low that I cannot continue to add more exacta combinations at reasonable FUTURE odds.The future wager carries more risk because they are not running TODAY so it should carry more REWARDS as in higher odds.

re: TimeformUS Saturday Plays from Gulfstream and Fair Grounds

Rusty Weisner — Sat, 22 Feb 2014 16:29:01 GMT

Coldfacts,

I don't really like anyone for the FOY. In fact, I was kind of arguing against Top Billing by comparing him to Orb -- everyone's making the comparison, but these things don't always repeat themselves.

Your picks sound as good as any.

re: TimeformUS Saturday Plays from Gulfstream and Fair Grounds

Coldfacts — Sat, 22 Feb 2014 15:56:59 GMT

Brontexx,

“I would rather go with his stable mate Commissioner.”

If Commissioner was in the BCJ he would be at the back of the field and with his grinding style he would have been badly beaten.

We Miss Artie broke from post #10. How many lengths did he loose to get to the rails from that post? An estimated 3 to 4. He was ranked with his rider applying the brakes twice due to horses rapidly backing up in front of him. He was matching strides with the very fast Havana down the back stretch and only lost tough when his rider had to check him. He was very resolute in the stretch against some very fast horses. He was even in front of eventual BCJ New Year Day in the stretch.

This colt must have improved 4L or more since his BCJ effort. Commissioner will have of record a time of 1:42 to 1:43 to win. I do not believe he is that fast. If the leaders go 46, that time will be 2 to 3 seconds faster than anything Commissioner has ever experienced.

The more I review the race the more I cannot see We Miss Artie loosing with his post and the expected improvement he ha made in 16 weeks. I am going to lose a ton if he gets beat.