Supporting Cast May Overshadow Stars in Gotham and Swale

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re: Supporting Cast May Overshadow Stars in Gotham and Swale

Brontexx — Thu, 06 Mar 2014 00:05:25 GMT

-Keelerman Ill take whichever one of the two maidens Dutrow picks to run Saturday in race 3 at Aqueduct.

A comment on the jockey named on both, Charles C Lopez has only riden once for Dutrow at this meet, and it was on Onthewhistle.

If he runs both, I think they both come in the top 3 maybe even in the exacta.

re: Supporting Cast May Overshadow Stars in Gotham and Swale

El Kabong — Wed, 05 Mar 2014 03:25:02 GMT

Coldfacts,

And faith is what you would need in him and his handlers. He showed much promise in the Iroquois but came out of it with a slight injury. He's been training since Jan. but he is behind. As Mr. Foley stated, they did not expect much from the Palm, but they feel they can have him cranked enough for the Bluegrass to garner points sufficient for the Derby, and with three more weeks, he may be in a good position to run at a track he obviously likes. His pedigree is for the distance is very good and I don't expect too many will be in his camp in April after the Palm. Romans knows he belongs so we'll just have to see how he does in the Bluegrass. I've said all along I felt like this is going to be a year that a horse will come out of the blue late. I should have said Bluegrass.

re: Supporting Cast May Overshadow Stars in Gotham and Swale

Coldfacts — Tue, 04 Mar 2014 17:34:11 GMT

Keelerman,

Many thanks regarding the TBD information.

Both Matador and Asserting Bear were making their dirt debut in the Davis. They both ran well on the new surface and probably needed the race for tightening. Asserting Bear travelled powerfully on the bridle but found little in the stretch but was only beaten by 3-4L. He was fitted with blinker for the first time and I hope they will be removed for the TBD. He is my money horse in the TBD. Matador came off the pace but was out finished by the fitter top three. He was the pick of the Davis paddock. He has less value than his Canadian counterpart.

I am anxious to see Vinceremos perform away from his love zone. He kisses the rail each time he runs and tends to pull himself up from the resulting excitement. I think he is very talented despite his poor speed figures.

re: Supporting Cast May Overshadow Stars in Gotham and Swale

Coldfacts — Tue, 04 Mar 2014 17:00:26 GMT

El Kabong,

Regarding Smart Cover, I cannot have any confidence in him after his 11th place finish in the Palm Beach. Tipiture, Ride On Curlin, Rise Up and Laddie Boy finished behind him in the KJC, they returned with either creditable or winning performances. There will be no easy Derby preps going forwards and with his deep closing style he will find out y like Top Billing, that the best of his peers are fast and their speed is not of the cheap variety.

re: Supporting Cast May Overshadow Stars in Gotham and Swale

-Keelerman — Mon, 03 Mar 2014 22:15:13 GMT

The entries for Aqueduct's Saturday card were released today, and a six-furlong maiden special weight for three-year-olds has caught my eye. Among the seven horses entered are Scotland, third in both the Jerome and Withers Stakes (can you believe he's still a maiden?!) and Constantine, a first-time starter from the barn of Bob Baffert. However, it's worth noting that Scotland's trainer, Anthony Dutrow, has also entered a colt named Onthewhistle, and named Charles Lopez to ride them both. So it's possible that one or the other could scratch. I checked the nominations for the Private Terms Stakes at Laurel Park this Saturday, to see if Scotland might be entered there as well, but he wasn't among the nominees.

The feature of the card is the six-furlong, $100,000 Fred "Cappy" Capossela Stakes for three-year-olds. Among the notable names here is Long On Value, fourth in the Hutcheson Stakes (gr. II) last time out behind Wildcat Red. A two-time juvenile stakes winner at 5-1/2 furlongs, Long On Value will be attempting to become the fourth horse to exit the Hutcheson and win a stakes race next time out, following Wildcat Red (Fountain of Youth), Spot (Swale Stakes), and Tashir (Smooth Air Stake.)

Among the other prominent names entered in the Capossela are Germaniac, winner of the Frank Whitely, Jr. Stakes on January 4th at Laurel; Hot Heir Skier, winner of the Jimmy Winkfield Stakes at Aqueduct; and Oliver Zip, runner-up in the Jimmy Winkfield and subsequent winner of a starter allowance race.

re: Supporting Cast May Overshadow Stars in Gotham and Swale

-Keelerman — Mon, 03 Mar 2014 19:52:21 GMT

Coldfacts;

DRF.com just released an article on the Tampa Bay Derby, and listed Hy Kodiak Warrior as a probable starter. Others expected to contest the race include Vinceremos, Conquest Titan, Matador, Asserting Bear, Coltimus Prime, and Surfing U S A.

Here's a link to the article: www.drf.com/.../tampa-bay-derby-casse-pletcher-have-top-contenders

re: Supporting Cast May Overshadow Stars in Gotham and Swale

El Kabong — Mon, 03 Mar 2014 19:38:43 GMT

Coldfacts,

I agree. Much like last year, the Gotham showcased nothing. The times, base on how the track was run that day and how this race was run just last year, point to a group that will be taken to the mat if the likes of a Top Billing shows up, which is likely to happen. Fun race to watch not question, but these guys don't seem to be on par with the better group running at GP, FG or SA.

re: Supporting Cast May Overshadow Stars in Gotham and Swale

-Keelerman — Mon, 03 Mar 2014 16:51:19 GMT

Coldfacts;

I'm also looking forward to seeing where East Hall turns up next. He's demonstrated in both the Holy Bull Stakes and Fountain of Youth that he is among the better horses in Florida, and if he can hit the board in one of the major prep races -- even finish fourth! -- he would likely have enough points to start in the Derby, where the potential for a blazing pace would surely enhance his late run. He seems to be overlooked by most, but I haven't counted him out yet.

re: Supporting Cast May Overshadow Stars in Gotham and Swale

-Keelerman — Mon, 03 Mar 2014 16:41:34 GMT

Coldfacts;

Good point. I had it in my mind that In Trouble was a local, since all of his races have been in New York, but it slipped my mind that he is wintering in Florida. Given the circumstances surrounding his strong effort in the Gotham -- lack of foundation, first start in five months, first start beyond six furlongs, first start over the Aqueduct inner track -- my first thought after the Gotham was that In Trouble will be tough to beat in the Wood Memorial. So I guess that means I like a shipper to win the Wood Memorial... :)

It's interesting that you should mention Hy Kodiak Warrior. I've had my eye on him for a while, and his third-place finish to Commissioner and Top Billing in that Gulfstream allowance race on January 3rd was quite strong. He's been training very well at Calder, and was nominated to the Tampa Bay Derby, so I'm hopeful we'll get to see him back in action this Saturday. Perhaps a strong effort there would propel him toward a start in the Wood Memorial. What do you think?

re: Supporting Cast May Overshadow Stars in Gotham and Swale

Coldfacts — Mon, 03 Mar 2014 15:50:44 GMT

Ranagulzion,

I agree with your assessment regarding possible shippers for the Wood. I think Midnight Lute for Speedy Bob would be a better fit than Tap It Rich at the Big A. The track appears to be speed favoring and Midnight Lute has displayed tactical speed in all his races.

I think Constitution might go the route of the FL Derby. The slow Commissioner needs a slow track and along stretch and AK Park offers same. Surfing USA might be a good fit for the Wood as he has already won in NY. As for the $1.3M Bernardini colt Gala Award, he is definitely a candidate for the Bluegrass.

Cousin Stephen, Hy Kodiak Warrior and East Hall all have good speed to stay close and launch a challenge. Wicked Strong ran a big race in NY and he could also be considered. Tonalist was in my Derby Dozen but I was not impressed with the ease with which Constitution. dismissed him. Constitution had one start over 7F and Tonalist was coming off a victory in a 9F race. He had not excuse. Mexikoma needs a 12F race and probably that will not be long enough. The best of his peers are very fast and he contests his races from a different zip code because of his lack of tactical speed. He is always at the mercy of the pace upfront and therefore does not control his destny.

re: Supporting Cast May Overshadow Stars in Gotham and Swale

Coldfacts — Mon, 03 Mar 2014 15:16:57 GMT

Keelerman

The above is an interesting conclusion that I think merits further review. There was one entrant in the Gotham that never contest at race at The Big A and that was In Trouble. If he is classified as the true shipper and his overall profile is examined closely, then his performance can be used to do some extrapolation of the likely competitiveness of top class FL based horses in the Wood.

With only two starts and none beyond 6F, In Trouble had the least foundation in the Gotham. In addition, he had not made a start in 5 months and his 3YO debut was slated to be over the tricky inner track at the Big A. Despite the overwhelming disadvantages confronting him, he lost by either a NK or 1/2L.

If In Trouble exited the Gotham in good shape, will either Samraat or Uncle Sigh be capable of defeating him with that race under his belt? The Big A seems to be speed favoring but not nearly as fast as Gulfstream. Could the speedy types in FL with more foundation be more competitive in NY? The likes of Constitution, Almost Famous, Surfing USA, Cousin Stephen, Hy Kodiak Warrior and others should be far more formidable with their ability and foundation.

Using In Trouble’s performance as a measure, I think the NY colts are going to be very vulnerable if some from the top tier of the FL contingent show up.

re: Supporting Cast May Overshadow Stars in Gotham and Swale

-Keelerman — Mon, 03 Mar 2014 15:00:17 GMT

I just reviewed Anchor's Down's Gulfstream allowance victory from Saturday, and I must say, I was impressed! Although he seemed to be a bit headstrong early on -- did anyone notice how high he was carrying his head during the early stages of the race? -- he looked great taking command from Myositis Dan after being passed by that one on the far turn, and wasn't under much pressure at the finish. His final time of 1:21.67 for seven furlongs was 0.77 seconds faster than Spot ran in winning the Swale Stakes later on the card. A while back, trainer Todd Pletcher mentioned that he was thinking about the Arkansas Derby or Florida Derby for Anchor Down's stakes debut, and after seeing how sharp Anchor Down was on Saturday, I have to think those plans are still very much in consideration.

re: Supporting Cast May Overshadow Stars in Gotham and Swale

-Keelerman — Sun, 02 Mar 2014 23:48:57 GMT

Thanks, Rusty! I appreciate it! :)

re: Supporting Cast May Overshadow Stars in Gotham and Swale

-Keelerman — Sun, 02 Mar 2014 23:44:18 GMT

Ranagulzion;

Thanks for your thoughts! I definitely expect some shippers from Florida to take a shot at the Wood Memorial, and that will no doubt make the going deeper for Samraat and Uncle Sigh. It could become especially challenging if Top Billing shows up -- Shug McGaughey mentioned after the Fountain of Youth that he might send him to the Wood Memorial, depending on how the colt was doing and whether he thought Gulfstream was still playing in favor of speed.

But even still, I think Samraat and Uncle Sigh can hold their own against the invaders. I'm not saying one of them will win, but it wouldn't shock me if the Wood Memorial shippers find the locals to be a bit more tenacious than usual... :)

re: Supporting Cast May Overshadow Stars in Gotham and Swale

Ranagulzion — Sun, 02 Mar 2014 22:47:28 GMT

Keelerman & Coldfacts: Watch for a coulpe of shippers to crash the New York party in the Wood Memorial as the scramble for points gets serious, not to mention Grade 1 status of the race. Todd Pletcher is almost certain to send one or two like perhaps Constitution or Commissioner or even Gala Award. Bob Baffert could also send one of his, like Tap It Rich and then there are some colts that could be looking for softer spot than the Florida scene to continue their progress while improving their chance of getting into the Derby, like Wicked Strong, Tonalist or Mexikoma. I think that the Samraat/Uncle Sigh party is over and that neither will be a major player going ten furlongs at Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May (kind of, like Vyjack last year).

re: Supporting Cast May Overshadow Stars in Gotham and Swale

Rusty Weisner — Sun, 02 Mar 2014 22:34:22 GMT

Keelerman,

You're the liveliest host I think we've had. Great job.

Re: Smart Cover. I take the connections with a grain of salt. I'll believe it when I hear it from the horse.

re: Supporting Cast May Overshadow Stars in Gotham and Swale

-Keelerman — Sun, 02 Mar 2014 21:17:58 GMT

Sweet Reason, winner of the Spinaway Stakes (gr. I) last year and fourth in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (gr. I), returns on Friday in a one-mile allowance optional claiming race at Aqueduct: www.equibase.com/.../AQU030714USA-EQB.html

re: Supporting Cast May Overshadow Stars in Gotham and Swale

-Keelerman — Sun, 02 Mar 2014 21:03:38 GMT

Any thoughts on the Herecomesthebride Stakes (gr. III) at Gulfstream Park this afternoon? I like Valseuse, a second-time starter from the barn of Christophe Clement. She showcased a strong turn-of-foot to break her maiden on Gulfstream turf last month, and has drawn a nice post position that should enable her to save ground early on. And of course, the presence of jockey Julien Leparoux doesn't hurt, and neither does her pedigree (Kitten's Joy - Vilia, by Royal Academy.)

re: Supporting Cast May Overshadow Stars in Gotham and Swale

-Keelerman — Sun, 02 Mar 2014 20:48:24 GMT

Sounds like the top three finishers from the Gotham will be back for the Wood Memorial: www.bloodhorse.com/.../gotham-winner-returns-to-florida-wood-next

Who's your early pick in the rematch? Will Samraat continue his winning streak? Will Uncle Sigh turn the tables with a slightly better trip? Will In Trouble improve in his second start of the year?

re: Supporting Cast May Overshadow Stars in Gotham and Swale

-Keelerman — Sun, 02 Mar 2014 18:21:07 GMT

El Kabong;

Thanks for sharing that quote! Smart Cover will definitely have to step up in a big way come the Blue Grass Stakes, but given the unpredictability of the Blue Grass, that's by no means impossible. And since he's already earned four Kentucky Derby qualification points, even a fourth-place finish in the Blue Grass would probably get him in the Derby. I'm looking forward to seeing how he progresses!

re: Supporting Cast May Overshadow Stars in Gotham and Swale

-Keelerman — Sun, 02 Mar 2014 18:07:25 GMT

In the aftermath of the Swale Stakes, I took a closer look at Spot's pedigree, and now I really want to see how he does when stretched out in distance. Being by Pulpit out of a Quiet American mare, the potential for classic-level stamina is definitely a possibility, and for supporters of Dosage, his profile reads as a respectable 7-11-14-0-0, with a Dosage Index of 3.57 and a +0.78 Center of Distribution. Time will tell if he can replicate that stretch kick around two turns -- and without a blazing pace softening up the favorite -- but I'm looking forward to finding out!

re: Supporting Cast May Overshadow Stars in Gotham and Swale

Plod Boy Phil — Sun, 02 Mar 2014 17:48:31 GMT

Gulfstream R7 2 Nickerdoodle (3-1) continued her string of quality performances against conditioned claimers with an upgraded rush to the wire behind the front-running winner of a Speed favoring Flow.