Who Will Win the Big 'Cap Showdown?

re: Who Will Win the Big 'Cap Showdown?

Brontexx — Wed, 12 Mar 2014 22:34:54 GMT

Welcome Little Bill on your initial foray into the world of the Bloodhorse Blog and its inhabitants.

re: Who Will Win the Big 'Cap Showdown?

Little Bill — Wed, 12 Mar 2014 21:10:38 GMT

Coldfacts, You are correct sir.

re: Who Will Win the Big 'Cap Showdown?

Coldfacts — Wed, 12 Mar 2014 16:43:27 GMT

Rusty Weisner,

“California Chrome was awesome.”

The adjective you used to describe California Chrome's performance seems appropriate in comparison to others that have used to describe it.

Bellamy Road’ stunning 17 1/2-length record setting victory in the Wood was also awesome. He finished unplaced in the Derby. Empire Maker’s 9 3/4 lengths romp in the 2003 FL Derby was also Awesome. He finished second to a horse he previously defeated.

My policy is to move on to the next prep to see what additional information can be secured on other contenders. California Chrome does not have the profile of a Derby winner. However, there have been a few fortunate winners that had less than stellar profiles.

The collection of 3YOs that will enter the starting gates for the Kentucky Derby will bring different strengths to contests a distance none have previously undertaken. The horses delivering awesome performances leading up to the big race in many instances are defeated by lesser amongst them.

The Kentucky Derby is an event that provides an equal opportunity for all to win and it is takes no prisoners. The horse with the ability to stay 10F that gets an ideal trip and adapts to track conditions on the day will be the likely winner. All previous record setting and impressive performances are irrelevant when those starting gates open.

re: Who Will Win the Big 'Cap Showdown?

Brontexx — Tue, 11 Mar 2014 18:55:40 GMT

Rusty Weisner I still think it was a combination of surface and pace.On a different surface Oxbow might have moved up a couple of spots from 6th to 4th.When the track is sloppy everything changes as far as whats on paper(PPs)I learned that more than 20 years ago when I first started playing this game.I read your comments but I play my own opinion.

re: Who Will Win the Big 'Cap Showdown?

Rusty Weisner — Tue, 11 Mar 2014 14:26:11 GMT

Brontexx,

Oxbow "fading" in the Derby had nothing to do with the surface, nothing. It was solely the pace.

re: Who Will Win the Big 'Cap Showdown?

Rusty Weisner — Tue, 11 Mar 2014 14:24:50 GMT

Brontexx,

You're too quick to label people "Beyer methodologists". Beyers are useful. They're big, fat bold-print numbers that can tell you the obvious, like what races are really slow: I'm right on board KY VET when he says the horse is not going to make up 20 Beyer points. He's right; why try to outsmart myself by thinking otherwise. Don't underestimate bettors' abilities to outsmart themselves. On the other hand, I deprecate the Beyers when the field is small or when the track is wet.

I am aware of what Oxbow and Palace Malice did last year. Along with Orb they're the two horses I bet most heavily in the TC series last year. I'm looking for the same stuff you are: legitimate horses that will fetch odds going into the Derby because they were disadvantaged in some way, or showing improvement in defeat - it's why I mentioned the Bluegrass, by the way -- it's often good as both a negative and positive predictor, like last year, with Java's War a good toss and and Palace Malice showing a great effort in a final prep. The way the Keeneland speed strip used to produce Derby tosses (like Sinister Minister and his 116 Beyer) it now puts horses forward that are excel on the wrong surface, like Dullahan (rest in peace), who never did win on dirt.

re: Who Will Win the Big 'Cap Showdown?

Brontexx — Tue, 11 Mar 2014 01:06:51 GMT

Rusty Weisner dont be mislead by high Beyer figures on dry tracks.Go back and check Mine That Birds beyers before the KD,why do you think he was 99-1.

If the Derby is run on an off track which it has been most of the years since 2009 the Beyer figures for early runners wont matter they wont be able to hold their speed.Last year Oxbow put his nose in front for the briefest of moments in the stretch, and he faded to 6th on that off track.Two weeks later it was gate to wire for Oxbow on a more favorable surface and wasnt pressured on the lead.Last year Palace Malice was the KD frontrunner on that off track and faded badly, 6 weeks later on a dry Belmont track without pressure he won the race.

re: Who Will Win the Big 'Cap Showdown?

Brontexx — Tue, 11 Mar 2014 00:07:39 GMT

Rusty Weisner CC is good but the race he ran in the San Felipe will not win the KD.The race that Ill Have Another ran in the KD is the one he wants to emulate not the one Bodemeister ran.

You are a Beyer methodologist Bode ran a 109 at 9 panels in Arkansas which most resembles the surface at Churchill when dry.CC ran a 107 at 8.5 furlongs on a speed freeway where GOD looked like he found the FOY and ran a 116.

I will look to ad CC to colts that I already have in my futures wagers that are closers or pressers I wont pair him with speed in exacta boxes, but will look to combine him with for instance Cairo Prince who settles off the speed like many Mclaughlin trainees.

As far as Conquest Titan I bet him in the futures because I believe he will move up on an off track and hes a closer.The other Birdstone offspring to win the KD was Mine That Bird and till this day I am sure that the offtrack helped him win SO EASILY.

Mine That Bird would have won anyway but the margin was helped by the fact he loved the slop.Could CT be similar in his love for an off track we will find out.

re: Who Will Win the Big 'Cap Showdown?

Rusty Weisner — Mon, 10 Mar 2014 15:46:29 GMT

Brontexx,

I think Conquest Titan will make a very good bet in the Bluegrass if he runs. I don't know if I'd like him in the Derby, even though he won at CD.

California Chrome was awesome. I mentioned Midnight Hawk not to depreciate him, but to make the point that this good horse is a good measuring stick. To hark back to Bodemeister, CC's San Felipe was superior timewise and pacewise to the Creative Cause/Bodemeister San Felipe in 2012, the best year for California 3-yos in a decade. Don't know how to compare older horses at 10f with young 3-yos at 8.5, but the pace of the San Felipe was hotter than that, too, Saturday. I think California Chrome is the horse you're looking for. The trainer's nervous talk makes me a little nervous, though.

I'll leave it to others to discuss CC's pedigree, but, regardless, I don't think he's another Goldencents.

re: Who Will Win the Big 'Cap Showdown?

Brontexx — Sun, 09 Mar 2014 21:44:38 GMT

Id be surprised if CT didnt run at Keeneland where hes already run.With his new running style he dosent have a good chance to win at a mile and a sixteenth, at a longer distance he would have a better chance, as long as he can sustain his run.

He wasnt going to win at TB unless he got the ideal trip and pace set-up which he didnt.If the track is off this year for the KD then if hes in the race I think he really moves up.BTW he got a better pace scenario in the Holy Bull so its NOT ALL ABOUT THE TRACK,but a combination of factors.

If its a dry track on Derby day, I dont think any of these colts want the lead because there will be company,then the handicapping puzzle will become more difficult because a presser who gets first run might be able to hold on.The question is which one of the early-presser types will get that trip,remember its a twenty horse field.In 2012 the last track that was fast and dry the day before and on the day of the KD,I knew Bodemeister would be the speed,do you know who can fill this role yet? I dont, keep in mind he ran the top Beyer heading in to the race at 9 furlongs.

re: Who Will Win the Big 'Cap Showdown?

Rusty Weisner — Sun, 09 Mar 2014 14:25:49 GMT

Congratulations, winners.

I hadn't seen this California Chrome until yesterday. I think Midnight Hawk provides a good yardstick for how good he was.

I'm wondering whether Conquest Titan is going to the Bluegrass. That seems like the place he'll have a chance.

re: Who Will Win the Big 'Cap Showdown?

Mary Zinke — Sun, 09 Mar 2014 08:46:00 GMT

I won? Thanks for the fun contest, Keelerman. I was way off on some of these. I see my guess in the Honeybee was DQ'd, but still placed. Way for Dude to say, "Take that!"(edited from what he was really thinking). Will have to check out the replays. Glad that Sky got the San Carlos win. Just thought his roommie might have higher odds.

re: Who Will Win the Big 'Cap Showdown?

Monarchos Matt — Sun, 09 Mar 2014 01:20:54 GMT

I took a flyer with some show money on my longshot pick Hear The Ghost, and it didn't miss by much. But as soon as I saw how close he was to those hot opening fractions, I knew he was cooked. Utterly amazing race by Game on Dude. Equally amazing he was 7-2 and I didn't bet him.

re: Who Will Win the Big 'Cap Showdown?

-Keelerman — Sun, 09 Mar 2014 00:48:43 GMT

Wow...that was a race for the ages! I don't usually say much when watching races, but I was cheering for Game On Dude to hang on in the homestretch. What a magnificent performance by a very special horse.

Congratulations to Mary Zinke, who is the winner of our handicapping contest! Here are the final standings:

Mary Zinke - $28.20

Little Bill - $27.40

Carlos in Cali - $24.20

Mike G7251 - $20.60

Pedigree Ann - $20.60

RobbieJoe25 - $17.60

Monarchos Matt - $13.80

Keelerman - $13.60

TnT - $11.20

Ranagulzion - $9.20

El Kabong - $0.00

Thanks to all for playing!

re: Who Will Win the Big 'Cap Showdown?

Pedigree Ann — Sun, 09 Mar 2014 00:41:13 GMT

Woo-hoo! Way to go, Dude! (I had some coin on him, so I'm doubly happy.)

re: Who Will Win the Big 'Cap Showdown?

-Keelerman — Sun, 09 Mar 2014 00:08:36 GMT

Winning Prize and Lochte put on quite a show in the Frank E. Kilroe Mile! Great job by both horses.

Here are the standings after the sixth contest race:

Little Bill - $27.40

Carlos in Cali - $21.20

Mike G7251 - $17.60

Mary Zinke - $15.00

RobbieJoe25 - $14.60

Monarchos Matt - $13.80

Keelerman - $10.60

Ranagulzion - $9.20

TnT - $8.20

Pedigree Ann - $7.40

El Kabong - $0.00

The showdown in the Big 'Cap is next!

re: Who Will Win the Big 'Cap Showdown?

-Keelerman — Sat, 08 Mar 2014 23:31:11 GMT

That was quite a rally from Sahara Sky in the San Carlos Stakes! It looks as though he'll be in good form for a defense of his Metropolitan Handicap title, assuming Jerry Hollendorfer sends him for that race once again.

Here are the standings following the fifth contest race:

Little Bill - $27.40

Carlos in Cali - $21.20

Mary Zinke - $15.00

Monarchos Matt - $13.80

Keelerman - $10.60

TnT - $8.20

Pedigree Ann - $7.40

Mike G7251 - $3.00

El Kabong - $0.00

Ranagulzion - $0.00

RobbieJoe25 - $0.00

re: Who Will Win the Big 'Cap Showdown?

Pedigree Ann — Sat, 08 Mar 2014 23:27:24 GMT

I do have to say I'm glad that the real Sahara Sky is back. Just needed one after that long layoff.

re: Who Will Win the Big 'Cap Showdown?

Pedigree Ann — Sat, 08 Mar 2014 23:20:26 GMT

How a horse who was in post 10 gets caught behind a wall of horses like that is a mystery. One would think that Smith knows better than that. Oh, well, my own fault for taking a closer.

re: Who Will Win the Big 'Cap Showdown?

-Keelerman — Sat, 08 Mar 2014 23:07:35 GMT

What a bold ride by Daniel Centeno aboard Ring Weekend in the Tampa Bay Derby! It's hard to believe they managed to hold on after leading by around eight lengths on the backstretch, yet they did so in decisive fashion.

Here are the standings after the fourth contest race:

Mary Zinke - $15.00

Little Bill - $13.60

Keelerman - $10.60

TnT - $8.20

Carlos in Cali - $7.40

Pedigree Ann - $7.40

Mike G7251 - $3.00

Monarchos Matt - $0.00

El Kabong - $0.00

Ranagulzion - $0.00

RobbieJoe25 - $0.00

re: Who Will Win the Big 'Cap Showdown?

Pedigree Ann — Sat, 08 Mar 2014 22:58:21 GMT

Not a very inspiring ride by Shaun B. on Conquest Titan at Tampa, directing him down on the rail behind Vinceremos and no way to get outside. Not enough time to get into gear once he got clear. Lone speed does it again.

re: Who Will Win the Big 'Cap Showdown?

-Keelerman — Sat, 08 Mar 2014 22:43:42 GMT

There's a lot of wagering support for Hy Kodiak Warrior in the Tampa Bay Derby -- he's 7-2 with one minute to post time, down from a morning line price of 10-1.

re: Who Will Win the Big 'Cap Showdown?

-Keelerman — Sat, 08 Mar 2014 22:38:31 GMT

What a race! The Gulfstream Park Handicap had me on the edge of my seat from the start, and I could hardly believe the outcome! Palace Malice looked absolutely beaten at the top of the stretch when headed by Uncaptured, then battled back to stay in the mix, appeared beaten again when Golden Ticket loomed on the outside, and then somehow held them both off to win the race in a blazing 1:33.80 seconds. What a handicap division this is shaping up to be!

Here are the standings after the third contest race:

Mary Zinke - $15.00

Keelerman - $10.60

TnT - $8.20

Little Bill - $7.60

Carlos in Cali - $7.40

Pedigree Ann - $7.40

Mike G7251 - $3.00

Monarchos Matt - $0.00

El Kabong - $0.00

Ranagulzion - $0.00

RobbieJoe25 - $0.00

re: Who Will Win the Big 'Cap Showdown?

-Keelerman — Sat, 08 Mar 2014 22:20:39 GMT

California Chrome looks like a very, very special colt! That was a tremendous performance in the San Felipe Stakes. I know it's Santa Anita, but when was the last time a Derby contender ran a 1:33-and-change mile on dirt?

Following the San Felipe, we have a three-way tie for the lead in our contest! Here are the standings:

Mary Zinke - $7.40

Carlos in Cali - $7.40

Pedigree Ann - $7.40

TnT - $3.00

Mike G7251 - $3.00

Keelerman - $3.00

Monarchos Matt - $0.00

El Kabong - $0.00

Ranagulzion - $0.00

Little Bill - $0.00

RobbieJoe25 - $0.00

re: Who Will Win the Big 'Cap Showdown?

-Keelerman — Sat, 08 Mar 2014 22:10:50 GMT

And so our contest gets off to a bit of a rocky start as Sugar Shack -- who finished first in the Honeybee Stakes (gr. III) at Oaklawn -- gets disqualified and placed second for interference in the homestretch.

No one had the official winner, but Mary Zinke picked Sugar Shack, so here are the standings after the first contest race:

Mary Zinke - $7.40

Carlos in Cali - $0.00

Tnt - $0.00

Mike G7251 - $0.00

Monarchos Matt - $0.00

El Kabong - $0.00

Pedigree Ann - $0.00

Ranagulzion - $0.00

Little Bill - $0.00

RobbieJoe25 - $0.00

Keelerman - $0.00