'Mandate' Should Be Strong in Rebel Stakes

re: 'Mandate' Should Be Strong in Rebel Stakes

Rusty Weisner — Mon, 17 Mar 2014 20:45:30 GMT

El Kabong,

Sorry, I just caught the tail end of the replay, with ROC drifting out and then Tapiture's move through the hole.

I like the Risen Star, too -- everything seems to add up to count it as a strong race: Hoppertunity, a good beaten favorite with a tough post, a logical winner.

re: 'Mandate' Should Be Strong in Rebel Stakes

El Kabong — Mon, 17 Mar 2014 17:37:46 GMT

Rusty,

I don't follow your order. The incident with Tapiture and Hopportunity happens at the head of the stretch. The second incident involving all 4 horses happens at about the 1/16th pole. How did you see it?

On another note, Hopportunity's success reflects well on Albano and Intense Holiday. Looking forward to that rematch and challengers who think they can hang with those two.

re: 'Mandate' Should Be Strong in Rebel Stakes

-Keelerman — Mon, 17 Mar 2014 16:53:35 GMT

DRF.com has reported that Midnight Hawk, Chitu, Commissioner, and Global Strike are among the probable starters for the March 23rd Sunland Derby (gr. III) at Sunland Park: www.drf.com/.../sunland-park-derby-attracts-pair-pletcher-and-baffert-barns

re: 'Mandate' Should Be Strong in Rebel Stakes

Rusty Weisner — Mon, 17 Mar 2014 16:29:22 GMT

50-cent P4 ticket would have been $60, not $75. Still too much.

re: 'Mandate' Should Be Strong in Rebel Stakes

Rusty Weisner — Mon, 17 Mar 2014 14:05:44 GMT

El Kabong,

You've got the order of the incidents confused.

What a crazy, inconclusive race. Strong Mandate had no excuses, Ride On Curlin drifted and came up short, again, Hoppertunity unknown, and on top of it, slop. I don't like any of them at this point, Derby-wise, though.

re: 'Mandate' Should Be Strong in Rebel Stakes

El Kabong — Sun, 16 Mar 2014 16:47:19 GMT

Pedigree Ann,

There were two incidents in the lane. The first where Tapiture comes out into Hopportunity creating a lane by bulldozing Hopportunity out of his way. Foul One. Then a second, as you correctly point out, Ride on Curlin does leave his lane moving to his right by at least a full lane, bumping strong mandate who then bumps Tapiture, who bumps with Hopportunity, who did come in by a step, as Tapiture came out by a step recovering from his bump. So, I agree here that Ride on Curlin did compromise a tiring Strong Mandate and Tapiture, who finished ahead of him anyway. The only DQ possible because of finish order was a flip of Ride on Curlin and Strong Mandate. That would have been big too for Strong Mandate's points. They have to feel a little cheated about those 10 points which could have solidified SM's trip to the Derby.

re: 'Mandate' Should Be Strong in Rebel Stakes

Coldfacts — Sun, 16 Mar 2014 16:43:17 GMT

Ride On Curlin as I suspected ran an improved race but was just not good enough to win the Rebel. His 9-1 starting price was very attractive and way too long based on his PPs.

Hoppertunity ran extremely well and might have been the beneficiary of the mud influence of his dam sire Unaccounted For. He is from the powerful Mr. Prospector sire line. Can another son od Distorted Humor that was trained by Todd Pletcher sire another Derby winner? It is a reality that is unthinkable. He appears to have the grinding style to win the Derby if the speed breaks down.

Tapiture is one of the 124 live foals reported from the 169 mares bred by Tapit in 2010. He will make the Derby field but a Derby winner sired by an overbred stallion is unlikely.

re: 'Mandate' Should Be Strong in Rebel Stakes

Pedigree Ann — Sun, 16 Mar 2014 14:21:49 GMT

Who should have come down in the Rebel? I think it was Ride On Curlin, who came out on Strong Mandate and, eventually, Tapiture. Hoppertunity seemed to come in, but it the others hadn't been pushed out, there would have been room for them to run as well as they could.

re: 'Mandate' Should Be Strong in Rebel Stakes

Rusty Weisner — Sun, 16 Mar 2014 14:03:07 GMT

Ranagulzion,

I think your making a mistake similar to the one you made with Verrazano last year.

To let you know where I'm coming from, two of the most embarrassing bets I've ever made were on Quality Road (in the Travers?) after his 116 Beyer and Bellamy Road in the Derby (he at least gave me 6f of excitement, as I would have won a $10,000 P4 on him). Those have really stuck with me. Bernardini had a similar performance profile to the latter, but he was pushed into shallower waters in the Preakness.

re: 'Mandate' Should Be Strong in Rebel Stakes

Plod Boy Phil — Sun, 16 Mar 2014 03:03:03 GMT

Keelerman -

You were the nuts with Let Faith Arise.

re: 'Mandate' Should Be Strong in Rebel Stakes

Plod Boy Phil — Sun, 16 Mar 2014 03:00:09 GMT

Skepticism ?

I think not. Rather, a statement of fact if I dare intercede. Correctly analyzing the impact any race has on the form cycle of a single horse is a trying task in itself, never mind attempting to apply it to the performance of an entirely different animal, from a different day.

re: 'Mandate' Should Be Strong in Rebel Stakes

Rusty Weisner — Sun, 16 Mar 2014 01:44:58 GMT

Keelerman,

Hope you bet that Joy Boy. I had ALL in R6 but singled Hornet in R7.

re: 'Mandate' Should Be Strong in Rebel Stakes

Rusty Weisner — Sun, 16 Mar 2014 01:44:13 GMT

I bet blind today. Was it sloppy? Didn't even look. Wish I had recommended the winner in Oaklawn 11, as I liked it better than the 3 or 9 -- had trouble in its debut and still finished strong, and was a "horse" not a 3-yo.

re: 'Mandate' Should Be Strong in Rebel Stakes

Rusty Weisner — Sun, 16 Mar 2014 01:42:15 GMT

"I think it's wide open, too, and considered a bigger ticket with the "single" in the Azeri,..."

Argh. The "biggest ticket" I considered consisted of Strong Mandate, Tapiture, Ride On Curlin, Hoppertunity. $75 50-cent P4 ticket would have paid $240 and I had the rest. But you know what? 150 bets is too much. I'm happing losing and sucking it up.

re: 'Mandate' Should Be Strong in Rebel Stakes

Ranagulzion — Sun, 16 Mar 2014 01:34:01 GMT

Rusty Weisner: In the light of Gulfstream Park's preious track record setter,Golden Lad's romp in the Razorback, don't you think its time to join me on the Social Inclusion Triple Crown sweep wagon (LOL). Remember that your skeptical assessment of Social Inclusion's quality was put by you in the context of Golden Lad's track record at Gulfstream which SI broke. Now in order to be consistent you really should review your evaluation of the colt. I look forward to your company on the wagon ...plenty of room right now.

Pedigree Ann: We are in for quite a ride this season. I'm interested in your insights into a comparison of the pedigree of Social Inclusion and Cairo Prince with respect to classic distance stamina. Both colts carry Rough N'Tumble, Aspidistra and inbreeding to Mahmoud on the Dam side (shades of Holy Bull) but I think that Social Inclusion has deeper stamina roots bolstered by the multiple presence of Blue Larkspur. Whats your take?

re: 'Mandate' Should Be Strong in Rebel Stakes

Brontexx — Sat, 15 Mar 2014 23:32:09 GMT

Bafferts in with Hoppertunity, and you know what hes part of the ALL OTHERS for all three derby futures.Thats about the only good thing that happened for me as Strong Mandate didnt finish.

Going back to the last derby futures, The Spiral and Sunland Derby are the next scoring races next weekend that we will see before we have to make our FINAL BETS.I think it will be interesting to see if Social Inclusion is one of the top 23 betting interests because Hoppertunity will be on that list, and depending on who scores points in those two races next weekend it could get very crowded in the top 23.Social Inclusion will be excluded IMO.

re: 'Mandate' Should Be Strong in Rebel Stakes

Little Bill — Sat, 15 Mar 2014 22:56:46 GMT

Like Stanwyck

re: 'Mandate' Should Be Strong in Rebel Stakes

Little Bill — Sat, 15 Mar 2014 22:53:09 GMT

Phil, you are correct Sir, I did not know. Funny though.

re: 'Mandate' Should Be Strong in Rebel Stakes

Little Bill — Sat, 15 Mar 2014 20:40:14 GMT

Guilt Trip scratched, insert Bourbon Courage.

re: 'Mandate' Should Be Strong in Rebel Stakes

Plod Boy Phil — Sat, 15 Mar 2014 20:35:35 GMT

Not that you would know Lil' Bill, but Golden Ron was the horse I bet at the gate because of his 'pawing' as they went to the gate in the Razorback last year.

re: 'Mandate' Should Be Strong in Rebel Stakes

Little Bill — Sat, 15 Mar 2014 20:01:17 GMT

Keelerman, I'm on Golden Ron 2,3,7,8, box. Cyber Secret was as tough as they come last year at OP. At least as tough as they were at OP.

re: 'Mandate' Should Be Strong in Rebel Stakes

-Keelerman — Sat, 15 Mar 2014 19:34:23 GMT

Could Golden Ron being sitting on a big effort in today's sixth race at Oaklawn? He was the runner-up in the Razorback Handicap last year at odds of 26-1, then threw in a couple of disappointing efforts in April and May before heading to the sidelines. He returned in January to finish a solid sixth in a 5 1/2-furlong allowance race at Oaklawn, and is now stretching out to a more ideal distance. With a morning line price of 20-1, does anyone like him to steal the race?

re: 'Mandate' Should Be Strong in Rebel Stakes

-Keelerman — Sat, 15 Mar 2014 19:25:39 GMT

Forbidden Apple;

I also like Kitten's Point in the Honey Fox Stakes. I think she's sitting on a big season this year.

re: 'Mandate' Should Be Strong in Rebel Stakes

Coldfacts — Sat, 15 Mar 2014 17:52:29 GMT

El Kabong,

I reviewed Street Strategy's PPSs and he should come running when it's being decided. His speed figures suggest he does not belong but he did work 1:13 which was the 6F split in the Southwest.

His connections paid 425K for him and consequently he must have been appealing in the sale ring. I never underestimate a horse from the Mr. Prospector sire line.

re: 'Mandate' Should Be Strong in Rebel Stakes

-Keelerman — Sat, 15 Mar 2014 17:45:07 GMT

Just saw on DRF.com that Kristo, runner-up in the Sham Stakes (gr. III) and third in the San Felipe Stakes (gr. II) at Santa Anita, will target the Wood Memorial (gr. I) at Aqueduct for his next start.