The First of the Final Derby Preps

re: The First of the Final Derby Preps

Coldfacts — Mon, 24 Mar 2014 15:30:32 GMT

Commissioner:

I have seen the combination of sire and dam sire being Belmont winners and the resulting offspring being void of the speed necessary to win the Derby. This purely related to the Derby and should be viewed outside this context.

Historically horses whose sires and dam sires were winners of TC races rarely feature in the Derby. The talented Summer Bird was a product of a Belmont winning sire and a Preakness winning dam sire and he finished 6th in the Derby but returned to win the Belmont. His example is a rarity.

I was of the opinion that Friends Lake would have been a serious Derby horse being by A P Indy out of a Spend A Buck mare. Spend A Buck was one of the few Derby winners that completed the distance in 2:00 and a bit. A P Indy’s time of 2:26.13 ranks him either in the top three or top five. Friends Lake won the FL Derby but that was it.

Commissioner might turn out to be the exception and win the Derby like Giacomo the king of the grinders. However, a pace meltdown is not guaranteed in the 2014 Derby.

With the above stated he is a physically imposing colt and was the only horse that closed from last to hit the board at Sunland Park on Sunday.

re: The First of the Final Derby Preps

Coldfacts — Mon, 24 Mar 2014 15:20:43 GMT

El Kabong,

That was not a fair assessment of my response. I cited that in rare cases horses have won from behind as in the case of Animal Kingdom.

I agreed with your assessment that being mid pack is best place in races at TWP.

re: The First of the Final Derby Preps

Rusty Weisner — Mon, 24 Mar 2014 15:13:31 GMT

No one's really surprised that Honor Code won't be in the Derby, are they?

re: The First of the Final Derby Preps

longwaytomay — Sun, 23 Mar 2014 20:55:07 GMT

Carlos,

Something to think about. Pletcher is 0 for double digits when adding blinkers in a stakes race. Is today the day he breaks that streak? Just sayin...

re: The First of the Final Derby Preps

-Keelerman — Sun, 23 Mar 2014 20:45:38 GMT

El Kabong;

Allow me to join in on the congratulations! That was excellent job of handicapping the Spiral Stakes. Good luck in the Sunland Derby with Global Strike!

re: The First of the Final Derby Preps

Carlos in Cali — Sun, 23 Mar 2014 20:23:01 GMT

Honor Code was my Derby pick since the Champagne... that sucks!!!

Sunland Derby: Commissioner gets 1st-time blinkers in here.There should be plenty of speed backing-up down the lane,so he's my pick to grind-out the victory.AP Indy's last shot...

re: The First of the Final Derby Preps

-Keelerman — Sun, 23 Mar 2014 19:31:21 GMT

Here's an article on Honor Code's injury:

www.drf.com/.../kentucky-derby-prospect-honor-code-out-suspensory-tear

re: The First of the Final Derby Preps

-Keelerman — Sun, 23 Mar 2014 19:24:37 GMT

Just heard that Honor Code is off the Derby trail with a suspensory injury...so unfortunate. :(

This changes the Kentucky Derby picture a great deal.

re: The First of the Final Derby Preps

El Kabong — Sun, 23 Mar 2014 17:41:09 GMT

Sunland Derby

Keelerman, I'm going with Global Strike, but I like your mention of Rebranded. I'm going to play him under, a Sunland local seems to do well here and he's the guy if he can handle all the class that's here today. I put the baffert duo and Pletcher's other with Rebranded under Global Strike and hope for the best. Good luck today.

re: The First of the Final Derby Preps

El Kabong — Sun, 23 Mar 2014 16:16:18 GMT

Rusty, Plod Boy Phil,

Thanks, that was closer then it should have been. Artie was in the catbird seat in 4th on the far turn but he didn't build up his drive throughout the turn. Consequently he was third at the top of the lane and left himself too much to do in the stretch. That's a mistake at Turfway, you really need to sustain that drive in the turn and slingshot to the lead at the top of the lane. You can almost take the finish photo at the head of stretch because it doesn't change and hasn't for the past 4 or 5 years that I have followed this race. It has to be the most unforgiving stretch to closers, more so than GP-you can't catch me-

As far as the Derby goes, Artie is not my pick to win, but I don't think you can say he won't hit the board. I like his breeding for the distance and I think he will take to the CD surface but only time and a workout there will tell. Love the workout reports that Steve gives us and much will depend on those eyeballs to see if he takes to the surface. Looking forward to Smart Cover in the BG. We should see a much more challenging workout schedule if he is too improve. I think yesterdays effort was merely to see how he handled the surface and the kickback of synthetic. He's a wait and see for sure.

re: The First of the Final Derby Preps

Rusty Weisner — Sun, 23 Mar 2014 14:21:48 GMT

El Kabong,

I was being a little tongue-in check, but there's no way I'm considering We Miss Artie as the Derby winner. I have no reason to believe dirt, even CD dirt -- speedy or slow, fast or sloppy -- is his surface. Just like Dullahan or Went the Day Well. Hard Spun was completely different: he had established his dominance on dirt at various tracks already. His win (looking at the chart) was also the type that attracted me about Palice Malice's Bluegrass last year -- a dirt-proficient horse up on the pace on a surface supposedly not kind to frontrunners.

re: The First of the Final Derby Preps

Rusty Weisner — Sun, 23 Mar 2014 14:10:20 GMT

El Kabong,

Had realized that about Hard Spun, and that it was the syntethic track then already.

What a great analysis of the race and the track you offered. Coldfacts sure was right about who the "closers" would be...and you were right about the winner. I'll be tempted to bet it next time.

re: The First of the Final Derby Preps

Ranagulzion — Sun, 23 Mar 2014 01:13:43 GMT

Coldfacts: We must always take Todd Pletcher's charges very seriously in these Derby preps ...he truly is king of these races, following up on Vinceremos and Intense Holiday with We Miss Artie in the Spiral. Lookig ahead, Comissioner must be the one to beat at Sunland Park (although I've already piked Chitu) and Constitution is going to be very dangerous in the Florida Derby (although at the moment I favour Wildcat Red).

Almost Famous chucked the gallop like a lame or short horse (I believe that he is way better than he showed).

re: The First of the Final Derby Preps

Plod Boy Phil — Sun, 23 Mar 2014 00:19:32 GMT

El Kabong -

Well done with WMA.

re: The First of the Final Derby Preps

Pedigree Ann — Sat, 22 Mar 2014 18:36:42 GMT

El Kabong - I was about to gainsay you, as I have often seen horses who have been last(or nearly so) early come on to win at TP, but then you went on to explain what you considered coming from behind. It's not my definition, but that's nearly here or there.

I do have to say that horses who look home and hosed at the 8th pole can be caught late at TP - have seen it many a time (on TV that is. Florence Y'All is too far for me to drive to for racing).

re: The First of the Final Derby Preps

Pedigree Ann — Sat, 22 Mar 2014 18:17:38 GMT

"Do you seriously think those evaluating pedigrees focus only on males?"

Well, you, Mr. Coldfacts, seem to be male-obsessed, with your sireline and damsire maleline analyses. Then there are the Nicking people, several companies make a good living supplying "grades" to crosses based only on the sireline and damsire maleline.

Even Steve Haskin has on occasion spoken well of a Derby candidate's probability of stretching out, mentioning only sire, damsire and sires along the damline as what influenced his opinion.

One might be living in the 19th Century, when mares were considered so unimportant that they might not have their own names, only be referred as, for instance, "a Newminster mare," as though any Newminster daughter was equivalent to another.

re: The First of the Final Derby Preps

El Kabong — Sat, 22 Mar 2014 17:51:26 GMT

Coldfacts,

If you take one line out of context you misrepresent the thought. What I really said was:

'The Turfway stretch is short and that makes this a Jockey's race. You have to make your move in the far turn and be in contention at the top of the lane. Horses do not come from off the pace here. I look for a horse with tactical speed, a strong middle move, and the best Jock.

So let me clarify for you and anyone else who didn't get it. When I say they don't win from "off the pace" I mean a stretch runner does not win this race, but to characterize Animal Kingdom's victory as a win from off the pace is not accurate in my opinion. Although he initially trailed, he moved up to a stalking 4th by the far turn, made his move in the far turn from 4th place behind 3 runners who were bunched a nose apart and was on the lead at the top of the lane. As I also stated, you must make your move in the far turn as Animal Kingdom did from a stalking position of 4th, and you must be in contention at the top of the lane, where you will find he was leading having made his move in the turn. That is a stalking win, not a closing win from off the pace that occurs, in my opinion, down the stretch. Went The Day Well also won with the same move from a stalking position of 4th in the far turn after having moved up from 8th on the back. He too had the lead by the top of the lane. Black Onyx, also used this same tactic. 4th in the far turn, a move on the turn, the lead at the top of the lane. You must be near the lead in the far turn, thus tactical speed is key. Closers who wait to make their run in the lane are toast. And it makes sense, the stretch is short as I mentioned.

re: The First of the Final Derby Preps

Plod Boy Phil — Sat, 22 Mar 2014 16:51:47 GMT

Turfway Late Pick 4 Book-end Singles:

8) 3 Sassy Kitten - upgraded win

11) 8 Solitary Ranger - upgraded 'vs zip win'

re: The First of the Final Derby Preps

-Keelerman — Sat, 22 Mar 2014 16:18:18 GMT

Along with the Spiral Stakes, I'm also really looking forward to the Pasadena Stakes this afternoon at Santa Anita. The one-mile turf race for three-year-olds has drawn an exceptional field of nine, including Enterprising, Diamond Bachelor, Home Run Kitten, Craftsman, Royal Banker, and Puppy Manners. It wouldn't surprise me if a Blue Grass Stakes contender or two emerges from this race.

re: The First of the Final Derby Preps

Coldfacts — Sat, 22 Mar 2014 15:46:58 GMT

El Kabong,

“Horses do not come from off the pace here”

While it might be a rarity, if the pace is honest closers do win at TWP. Animal kingdom closed from last to win the 2011 Spiral. The 2012 & 2013 winners Went The Day Well and Black Onyx were never worse than 6th. I do agree that the ideal position to be is mid pack

Tamarando, Poker Player Big Bazinga, All Tied Up and Smart Cover are expected to be the closers. They are very good horses and good horses find ways to win just as Animal Kingdom did.

Solitary Ranger and Almost Famous should set the pace. If Arctic Slop gets a good break do not be surprised if he leads. He finished 3rd by 4 3/4L to the We Miss Artie in the Futurity after breaking in the air and closing from last.

re: The First of the Final Derby Preps

El Kabong — Sat, 22 Mar 2014 15:45:12 GMT

Rusty, I would also be remiss to not mention one of my all time favorites, Hard Spun, who won the Spiral in 2007. It's about the horse.

re: The First of the Final Derby Preps

Coldfacts — Sat, 22 Mar 2014 15:20:26 GMT

Ranagulzion,

Almost Famous was a $500K purchase that was produced from a G1 wining millionaire. Those high price yearling and 2YOs produced from those high profile mares are never exceptional. This colt has proven his is best against weaker. His 3 losses have been by an average of 13.7L I do not like him the Spiral.

We Miss Artie disappointed badly in the FOY Derby. He was beaten by 17L after making a big mid race move. He did not reproduce is BCJ effort and I think he is unreliable. He won his sole effort on synthetic but that was a track win a lot of water in it. I think 9F is just out of his range.

Tamarando has more foundation than the New WT Building and has won from 5 1/2F to 9F. He is undoubtedly the class of the field. This obviously will be his last start before he Derby. It is rare for a horse to enter the Derby with consecutive victories over 9F. In light of this I think he will be beaten today.

I like a colt whose sire cost $6.4M and bred 36 mares in 2010 and whose first two dams were unraced. The colt is also a homebred. These unknown quantities are ideal to exotic wagers. His last work was a sharp 59 4/5. If he hits the board all exotics will be huge. Its Spring and the Arctic Slope could prove slippery.

In the Sunland Derby I will be a little Burbonized. He disappointed in the Southwest but I think he was compromised by his wide post. I think he is much better than his form indicated.

re: The First of the Final Derby Preps

Coldfacts — Sat, 22 Mar 2014 14:47:31 GMT

Pedigree Ann,

“which just goes to show that looking ONLY at the males in the pedigree can be very misleading”

Do you seriously think those evaluating pedigrees focus only on males? Irrespective of a horses pedigree, there are certain characteristics it will display on the track that will give an indication of the distance best suited amongst the best of its peers.

re: The First of the Final Derby Preps

El Kabong — Sat, 22 Mar 2014 14:44:53 GMT

Coldfacts,

My apologies, you mentioned Went The Day Well, and most correctly. Sorry for the error.

re: The First of the Final Derby Preps

Proud Acres — Sat, 22 Mar 2014 14:20:00 GMT

Pedigree Ann, I always enjoy your insight. Thanks for comments.

I am thinking Tamarando may do this one, regarding the other? I'm in a haze. We may see a new one grab the ring this time. Exciting time of year!