A Tremendous Day of Racing

re: A Tremendous Day of Racing

-Keelerman — Thu, 03 Apr 2014 17:01:43 GMT

Plod Boy Phil;

Thanks for your thoughts on the track biases!

re: A Tremendous Day of Racing

Plod Boy Phil — Thu, 03 Apr 2014 01:55:01 GMT

re: Florida and Louisiana Derbys

- The Hallandale main had a pinch of closer kindness over the 8 race dirt card. The Flow of the Florida Derby was 'negative' (favors front-runners) enough for us to label the race as a whole as speed friendly, but not of a magnitude to be grade-worthy on it's own merits.

- At the Fair Grounds, we detected a modestly speed friendly surface, though nothing remotely significant enough to impact results on it's own accord (few are). That said, the Flow of ViT's wire to wire win had a hint of closer kindness, resulting in the LaD being fair for all.

re: A Tremendous Day of Racing

Forbidden Apple — Wed, 02 Apr 2014 19:23:17 GMT

My KY Derby contenders:

1)Candy Boy 2)Social Inclusion 3)California Chrome 4)Wildcat Red 5)Cairo Prince 6)Constitution

As much as I love California Chrome, I have a feeling that Candy Boy will prove that he is the top colt for the S.A. and KY Derbies.

re: A Tremendous Day of Racing

Brontexx — Wed, 02 Apr 2014 17:44:07 GMT

-Keelerman IMO the only things that Ring Weekend will accomplish running at Calder(which is primarily a claiming track except for the 2yo series in the summer and fall)is to win more money and run a race at 9 furlongs,if he is good, he wont be tested and if he is KD quality he should win easily without much effort,that could be another trainer intent to give him an easy race before the toughest one in his life.How do I know I live in S.Florida.

re: A Tremendous Day of Racing

-Keelerman — Wed, 02 Apr 2014 15:28:06 GMT

While the Santa Anita Derby and Wood Memorial will rightfully attract most of the attention this weekend, it will be important to keep an eye on what transpires in the $250,000 Calder Derby as well. The nine-furlong race does not offer any Kentucky Derby qualification points, but has nevertheless drawn Ring Weekend, impressive winner of the Tampa Bay Derby (gr. II) last time out. Another notable entrant is Cleburne, unraced since winning the Iroquois Stakes (gr. III) at Churchill Downs last September. It should be a good race!

re: A Tremendous Day of Racing

-Keelerman — Wed, 02 Apr 2014 15:20:58 GMT

Here's an interesting article from DRF.com regarding the chances of Toast of New York running in the Kentucky Derby: www.drf.com/.../trainer-osborne-mulls-kentucky-derby-option-toast-new-york

re: A Tremendous Day of Racing

Forbidden Apple — Tue, 01 Apr 2014 12:47:46 GMT

Norumbega will win next out at Belmont or Churchill, wherever he lands. With his closing style he had little chance at Gulfstream.

For me the FL Derby proved that Cairo Prince was flat and not the least bit scary. He should have had a second prep race before the FL Derby. Quit crying about weights and race the horse already. Now he might not even qualify for the big dance. I also learned that Wildcat Red is far better than I gave him credit for. He was dead game even when he was out of his speedy comfort zone. 24,48,1:12,1:36 was surprisingly slow, I feel like he finished with plenty of fight left in him for a 1 1/4 mile race, sneaky good! He's a fighter and I think he is a must use in exotics for the KY Derby. One negative is that he's never raced anywhere except for Gulfstream Park.

A juicy win bet on Majestic Harbor in the Tokyo City made up for all of my losing tickets. He was sharp, I liked how he pounced on the field around the far turn and put the race away.

re: A Tremendous Day of Racing

El Kabong — Mon, 31 Mar 2014 20:29:22 GMT

Coldfacts,

Please review Websters definition of the word bold before you invite me into an arena where you have been rightly tossed.

Bold: very confident in a way that may seem rude or foolish.

I don't know how my statement regarding Cairo Prince, agreeing with the majority of the public and oddsmaker Ron Nicoletti that Cairo Prince was the best horse coming into the Florida Derby can be considered bold by anyone who understands the word. Especially since I went on to clarify about Cairo Prince that he may not be trained well enough to win given his trainers statements. I asked the question, "Is he cranked to perform? Then replied, "Perhaps not for the win. We are far enough out for a trainer who has been playing the reserve game to settle for a good effort."

re: A Tremendous Day of Racing

Rusty Weisner — Mon, 31 Mar 2014 17:54:26 GMT

Keelerman,

I have the feeling right now the winner of the Kentucky Derby comes out of that race.

I just read Mike Watchmaker's weekend recap and couldn't figure out if we was insinuating that John Velazquez let Constitution win. He also echoed Pedigree Ann's opinion that the pace was too forgiving.

re: A Tremendous Day of Racing

-Keelerman — Mon, 31 Mar 2014 17:42:54 GMT

Hoppertunity has been confirmed as a starter for the Santa Anita Derby:

www.drf.com/.../santa-anita-derby-next-hoppertunity-says-baffert

re: A Tremendous Day of Racing

Brontexx — Mon, 31 Mar 2014 13:35:21 GMT

Coldfacts good reply, I was hoping to stir up KY Vet but he has his tail between his legs after proclaiming and reiterating his future bet back in November on Honor Code and Cairo Prince and it has gone KAPOOF.

Coldfacts You can critique my submissions when ever you like, and submit your contra selections because I know you dont focus on picking winners and you yourself have stated the same.Dont get angry if I decide to copy parts of your submissions, and inject my opinion.BTW I still think you should get a law degree, because the manner in which you post contra submissions on this blog gives one the impression you are writing legal briefs or objections to a line of questioning.

re: A Tremendous Day of Racing

Rusty Weisner — Mon, 31 Mar 2014 12:33:18 GMT

Keelerman,

I'm surprised by that. I wonder why that is.

re: A Tremendous Day of Racing

Coldfacts — Mon, 31 Mar 2014 12:13:03 GMT

Brontexx,

A Bit of humor is good for the soul. I try to inject some in my posts occasionally. However, there are many other contributors that are far better at it.

You have done me a disservice my comparing me to the KY Vet. You clearly suffered an assessment lapse.

“You make a lot of bold statements but you don’t pick winners”

Am I the only contributor that makes bold statements?

El Kabong - “Cairo Prince is the best horse.”

Brontexx - “CP will prove to be better than those colts that finished ahead of him today.”

The above examples are just a few bold statements that have been posted. We are all guilty of same.

On the subject of picking winners in advance of a race, it’s really not my focus and consequently I have developed no strengths in this area. I make wagers after viewing post parades. A horse’s physical condition and demeanor can tell a lot more than his PP’s. Irrespective of my positive opinions of a particular horse, if its physical condition and demeanor do not satisfy me, I pass on it.

“You on the other hand think you are writing serious stuff but all you do is whine and complain like a little ???”

You clearly have a problem with the evaluation of submissions. You also tend to be unnecessarily rule. It is certainly not my fault you are deficient in this area. However, you will be happy know that you can improved your evaluation skills if you make an effort.

NB: Try to avoid being rude as is it totally unnecessary. This policy does not enhance your status but rather indicates that you have not been schooled in the social graces.

re: A Tremendous Day of Racing

-Keelerman — Mon, 31 Mar 2014 01:40:43 GMT

Ranagulzion;

Thanks for your thoughts! I'm really looking forward to seeing how Social Inclusion fares in the Wood Memorial, because I agree that he might just be something super special. It will be particularly interesting if both Social Inclusion and Bayern run well enough to advance to the Kentucky Derby, because then there would be four colts -- Social Inclusion, Bayern, Constitution, and Hoppertunity -- heading to Churchill Downs with a shot at breaking the Apollo Curse. Perhaps this is the year it finally falls!

re: A Tremendous Day of Racing

-Keelerman — Sun, 30 Mar 2014 23:35:03 GMT

Rusty Weisner;

Conquest Titan is actually heading for the Arkansas Derby, where he will be ridden for the first time by Calvin Borel.

www.bloodhorse.com/.../borel-on-conquest-titan-in-arkansas-derby

re: A Tremendous Day of Racing

Ranagulzion — Sun, 30 Mar 2014 23:22:14 GMT

Keelerman: This year's Kentucky Derby is not looking like a closer's race. The speed horses are not one-dimensional and are carrying their speed. In any case there's a very special horse that's going to be strutting his stuff in the Wood Memorial on Saturday. After that race the topic for discussion may change to "Wow!! the Apollo curse is doomed this year". Can't wit for Saturday at Aqueduct.

I also thnk that California Chrome is going to sparkle again in the Santa Anita Derby ...he'll toy with Candy Boy. Watch out for Bob Baffert's 'lambourgini' named Bayern to rev things up at Oaklawn in the Arkansas Derby. These are top class colts with a lot of pace and stamina ...with Honor Code out I don't see any closer with the class to run down these types ...except perhaps Kobe's Back if he can show that he stays a distance of ground. Conquest Titan is outclassed amongst these IMO.

re: A Tremendous Day of Racing

Rusty Weisner — Sun, 30 Mar 2014 22:20:11 GMT

Conquest Titan will be in the Bluegrass, won't he? I'll be inclined to bet him there. I think the fact that he closed at all at Gulfstream would make me give him a chance in the Derby.

Brontexx,

Oaklawn is dirt, like CD, but short stretch.

re: A Tremendous Day of Racing

-Keelerman — Sun, 30 Mar 2014 21:52:47 GMT

Pedigree Ann;

Thanks so much for your thoughts! I really appreciate your taking the time to research Australia's pedigree. I'm looking forward to seeing how he progresses during the course of the season!

re: A Tremendous Day of Racing

Brontexx — Sun, 30 Mar 2014 21:34:37 GMT

Keelerman I also like Conquest Titan but hes down to his last shot to even make it in the gate.I like Hoppertunity if its an off-track Derby Day.The track at Oaklawn most closely resembles the one at Churchill and he won the Rebel Stakes on an off track,he has 55 points so I would be surprised if he didnt make the field.I wagered on him in the last derby futures in my usual exacta pool bets.I also bet on General A-Rod who was the one Conquest Titan beat in that race at Churchill and he has 40 points and I expect him to make the field.If CT should make it in I have earlier bets on him in the futures, and ditto for Strong Mandate and Commissioner.

re: A Tremendous Day of Racing

Pedigree Ann — Sun, 30 Mar 2014 21:05:59 GMT

Keelerman - I hadn't noticed Australia before - the only one of 20 horses named Australia on Pedquery who isn't/wasn't a female! The earliest one listed was a GB mare from the 1820s. But I digress.

Obviously, there is little doubt that he's likely to run his race at the St. Leger distance - his sire got the St. Leger trifecta in his first crop while his dam was an Oaks winner who loved 12f. The questions are durability and class.

So far, Australia hasn't faced much; he beat a maiden field and 4-horse G3 field. And there is no yardstick from the second in the G3, since that one came straight in from HIS maiden win. And the third was dead last in the subsequent Royal Lodge (G2) on the Champions Day card. On paper, he could be anything.

Actually, he might find the Guineas too sharp for him at 3 - his full sister Filia Regina didn't win a race until she got to a 14f race (at 3). Kingmambo half-brother broke his maiden at 8f, further were at wins at 10f and 12f. Surprising he won at 2, really. Argues for a positive assessment of his class.

re: A Tremendous Day of Racing

-Keelerman — Sun, 30 Mar 2014 20:53:30 GMT

Pedigree Ann;

The situation with Cairo Prince reminds me a lot of Shanghai Bobby last year. It will be interesting to see if trainers start changing their strategies in future years, putting more emphasis on the second-tier Derby preps that offer fifty points to the winner.

re: A Tremendous Day of Racing

-Keelerman — Sun, 30 Mar 2014 20:47:45 GMT

Here's a question for any and all -- with five weeks remaining before the Kentucky Derby, which horse(s) do you think will run big on the first Saturday in May?

I've had Candy Boy near the top of my rankings for a long time, and with a fast early pace appearing likely for the Derby, I see no reason to jump off the bandwagon now. But even more so than Candy Boy, I like Conquest Titan, particularly if the track is wet on Derby day. He has a strong off-track pedigree, a powerful stretch kick when allowed to drop far enough off the pace, a proven affinity for Churchill Downs, and -- to tie it all together! -- jockey Calvin Borel. With five weeks to go, he is my top-ranked Derby horse. Anyone else?

re: A Tremendous Day of Racing

El Kabong — Sun, 30 Mar 2014 20:18:25 GMT

Plod Boy Phil,

And if I'm hearing correctly, they found 3 Empty Super Size boxes of Junior Mints in Cairo Prince's stall. Newman!

re: A Tremendous Day of Racing

Plod Boy Phil — Sun, 30 Mar 2014 20:14:50 GMT

Rusty-

The 'Cairo Prince is done' comment was poorly phrased. Let's say, he's been 'Derby' done for some time in the eyes of many - I have to think his race yesterday would have connections pointing elsewhere.

Regarding the Remsen, as a Flow guy, this one came back as an obvious Xtreme for Speed, yet none of those deserving upgrading out of the race have ever inspired me. As I see it, the race was an aberration, worthy of some caution.

Regarding the favorite's sub-par performance in the LaD, I'd venture a guess that it was 'just a horse' regressing off what was clearly a lifetime best. I'll offer an pertinent tidbits from Flowville later in the week

re: A Tremendous Day of Racing

Rusty Weisner — Sun, 30 Mar 2014 20:07:15 GMT

Keelerman,

I didn't play Gulfstream except to tune in briefly to the Florida Derby, to make a small losing bet and to cheer on Matador (Ole!). I saw the leaden skies and imagined stifling humidity, and was curious if it had an effect on times and maybe dulled the speed bias. I found out from NBC that Gulfstream's is the "shortest" stretch in the country (tracks a mile or longer?). I did not know that.