TimeformUS Saturday Stakes Plays from Gulfstream and Fair Grounds

re: TimeformUS Saturday Stakes Plays from Gulfstream and Fair Grounds

Brontexx — Mon, 31 Mar 2014 13:21:17 GMT

Rusty Weisner whens the last time a colt that ran in the Wood hit the board in the KD,was it in 2003 when FC and EM completed the exacta just in reverse order from the Wood.I might have missed one.

I think the Wood will be the weakest prep this year for in the money finishers in th 2014 KD.

re: TimeformUS Saturday Stakes Plays from Gulfstream and Fair Grounds

Brontexx — Mon, 31 Mar 2014 13:16:16 GMT

Ranagulzion the BSFs worked well at Gulfstream or at least in the FL Derby.The last two colts that came out of the Gulfstream series that ran well in the KD were closers Orb and Icebox and before that it was Big Brown and Barbaro who were IMO the best colts period.Going back to the beginning of the decade in 2003 it was another closer who ran 2nd in the KD Empire Maker.The early speed presser that wins on the Gulfstream strip dosent do that well on the deeper Churchill track.I believe thats also the case for the Cali colts especially if they encounter a sloppy track and mud getting kicked up in their faces.

re: TimeformUS Saturday Stakes Plays from Gulfstream and Fair Grounds

-Keelerman — Mon, 31 Mar 2014 02:21:23 GMT

Pedigree Ann;

The situation with Cairo Prince reminds me a lot of Shanghai Bobby last year. It will be interesting to see if trainers start changing their strategies in future years, putting more emphasis on the second-tier Derby preps that offer fifty points to the winner.

re: TimeformUS Saturday Stakes Plays from Gulfstream and Fair Grounds

Ranagulzion — Sun, 30 Mar 2014 22:54:17 GMT

Brontexx: Most folks who handicapped the Florida Derby with the help of Beyer Speed figures got it right. I heard some 'handicappers' quoting thorough graph figures that made them believe Cairo Prince was superior to the three colts that defeated him soundly and I chuckled to myself. You can argue all you want but the results speak for themselves my friend ...and don't for a moment believe that I rely solely on Beyer Speed figures in my handicapping of these races.

re: TimeformUS Saturday Stakes Plays from Gulfstream and Fair Grounds

Rusty Weisner — Sun, 30 Mar 2014 22:14:59 GMT

Brontexx,

I'm against Social Inclusion. He's likely to blow a gasket after a 111. It's the perfect example of a horse I expect to be an underlay next out, or at least in the Derby. Actually, the better example would be Verrazano, who had a 114 in the Haskell last year. Didn't go near him in the Travers!

re: TimeformUS Saturday Stakes Plays from Gulfstream and Fair Grounds

Brontexx — Sun, 30 Mar 2014 21:09:39 GMT

Rusty Weisner I only used BSFs as an example just about any PPs have speed figures,I use Brisnet and they have their own.

Ill use Social Inclusion as an example according to BSFs he ran a 111 on the same track as the Fl Derby was contested,why do you think the owner and trainer decided to bypass the FD when their colt had a SUPERIOR speed figure than the other entrants.I seriously doubt that the one week difference between races is enough to make a trainer decide to ship to another track where his colt might not take to the footing as he obviously had taken to Gulfstream.IMO he knew the Florida Derby was coming up tough and the 111 he ran was on the inside of the track on an uncontested lead.The trainer opted for the easier spot for his untested colt and the 111 Beyer he ran didnt make that much difference to him a person that sees him everyday and knows him a lot better than a number on a piece of paper.

re: TimeformUS Saturday Stakes Plays from Gulfstream and Fair Grounds

Pedigree Ann — Sun, 30 Mar 2014 20:35:26 GMT

So now what does McLaughlin do with Cairo Prince? Train him for the Derby and hope enough drop out that he can get in on the points he has? Or run again to secure more points (if he can)? The two-race preparation scenario leaves no time to recoup for a bad start or other unforeseen circumstance. Putting all the eggs in one basket is generally a bad strategy.

re: TimeformUS Saturday Stakes Plays from Gulfstream and Fair Grounds

Rusty Weisner — Sun, 30 Mar 2014 20:03:16 GMT

Brontexx,

The point about Beyers is, of course, valid, but within limits.

1. Don't overestimate the number of bettors who actually use DRF. It's not 100%. I bet it's not even 50%.

2. Betting on horses is an imperfect market. There are overlays all the time. Intense Holiday was one in the Risen Star, I think, and his progression of Beyers was very helpful along with the class differences and track differences that made him able to offer his best.

3. Beyers may not offer the overlays, but they do offer underlays: The Beyer figures are often the cause of an undeserving favorite.

re: TimeformUS Saturday Stakes Plays from Gulfstream and Fair Grounds

Kevin — Sun, 30 Mar 2014 18:20:16 GMT

Teeth of Tiger, not Teeth of Dog.

re: TimeformUS Saturday Stakes Plays from Gulfstream and Fair Grounds

Kevin — Sun, 30 Mar 2014 18:05:11 GMT

Horse to consider on Sunday, Teeth of a Dog (#9 in the 8th at GP). Rushed up after a slow start two back then faded. Last out didn't run a bit, now is back in 10 days. 15-1 ML.

re: TimeformUS Saturday Stakes Plays from Gulfstream and Fair Grounds

Brontexx — Sun, 30 Mar 2014 02:26:45 GMT

Ranagulzion speed figures are not scientific enough to used as a stand alone tool to pick winners they dont take into account ground loss,starting and stopping,being blocked and numerous other factors.They were usable as a betting tool when only the creator had them.

When Andrew Beyer was the only one with the BSFs he made a killing because he found the overlays where as nowadays anyone who buys the form has the figures and bets accordingly so overlays are basically nonexistent betting using BSFs as a stand alone tool.

re: TimeformUS Saturday Stakes Plays from Gulfstream and Fair Grounds

Brontexx — Sat, 29 Mar 2014 19:06:03 GMT

Coldfacts what you write are your edited opinions of the facts.I am not going to copy parts of your tirade and inject my opinion,the fact is you dont know how to make winning bets.Constitution and Wildcat Red are not as good ON PAPER as CP and GA-Rod in a 9 furlong grade 1 race.One is a sprinter that stretched his speed at 1 1/16 and the other hasnt beaten anyone in a stakes race.

The exacta in the Florida Derby is CP and GA-Rod either way.I dare you to make a different pick but you wont because you write a lot on here but you dont make winning bets,cmon I dare you.

re: TimeformUS Saturday Stakes Plays from Gulfstream and Fair Grounds

Ranagulzion — Fri, 28 Mar 2014 16:54:41 GMT

The draw and pace scenario suggests that Cairo Prince is going to have to circle his speedy rivals to win the Florida Derby or be boxed-in at the rail until its too late. So far his speed figures do not suggest that he's able to win this race, given the scenario. I'll let him prove me wrong. Wildcat Red will go to the front and not be caught IMO.

re: TimeformUS Saturday Stakes Plays from Gulfstream and Fair Grounds

Rusty Weisner — Fri, 28 Mar 2014 15:50:20 GMT

And why was he at Gulfstream?

re: TimeformUS Saturday Stakes Plays from Gulfstream and Fair Grounds

Rusty Weisner — Fri, 28 Mar 2014 15:49:44 GMT

Craig Milkowski,

Know anything about Vicar's In Trouble's physical condition? I had heard he had a hoof problem after the Risen Star.