Social Inclusion: Rising Star or One-Hit Wonder?

re: Social Inclusion: Rising Star or One-Hit Wonder?

Brontexx — Sat, 12 Apr 2014 02:41:34 GMT

Keelerman would you keep leaving your own state if you win so much at home or would you continue to ship your graded stakes horses away from home to win minor awards.

There is something that is part of Sadlers routine that he cant seem to do when away from California.

BTW he ships a lot more than Art Sherman does Im sure you know who he trains.

re: Social Inclusion: Rising Star or One-Hit Wonder?

-Keelerman — Fri, 11 Apr 2014 16:23:03 GMT

Brontexx;

That's a very interesting statistic! You're right -- all twenty-eight of those graded stakes wins came in California. I'm really surprised that John Sadler hasn't won a graded stakes race outside of California since 2010, but then again, I guess he doesn't try it all that often either. Thanks for sharing that list!

re: Social Inclusion: Rising Star or One-Hit Wonder?

Pedigree Ann — Fri, 11 Apr 2014 15:44:06 GMT

Rusty - The hubby is very focused on his work, which is why he is so good at it. He finds my interest in horses, generally, and racehorses, in particular. amusing. Back when we were kidless, he would bring a folding chair and scientific papers to read when he went to the steeplechases or the 3-Day here in Lexington with me.

re: Social Inclusion: Rising Star or One-Hit Wonder?

Brontexx — Thu, 10 Apr 2014 20:49:24 GMT

I counted 28 graded stakes wins for Sadler since his last graded win outside Cali in the 2010 Arkansas Derby.So he is ofer 28 since 2010,and I am on the fence if Candy Boy is a toss for me.Candy Ride his sire won the Pacific Classic at 10 furlongs as a 4yo but it was a 4 horse field if you wanna call it that.

re: Social Inclusion: Rising Star or One-Hit Wonder?

Brontexx — Thu, 10 Apr 2014 20:43:46 GMT

Unfortunately the 2010 Kentucky Derby where he finished 18th was Line of Davids last start.Super Saver ran several more times but never came close to winning again.

re: Social Inclusion: Rising Star or One-Hit Wonder?

Brontexx — Thu, 10 Apr 2014 20:26:33 GMT

Last graded stakes win outside of Cali was in 2010 I remember this one well he helped Super Saver get a tightener by providing a miler/sprinters pace in the Arkansas Derby of 2010 that set Super Saver up in the 2010 KD to run the same trip basically with more horses that he had to pass to win he was 6th instead of 2nd.He got first jump on Ice Box and it was over.

2010 Arkansas Derby (Gr. 1) Line of David

re: Social Inclusion: Rising Star or One-Hit Wonder?

Brontexx — Thu, 10 Apr 2014 20:17:24 GMT

Keelerman per equibase graded stakes wins I believe ALL of these are in Cali check it over

Year Race Horse

2014 Robert B. Lewis Stakes (Gr. 2) Candy Boy

2014 San Vicente Stakes (Gr. 2) Kobe's Back

2014 San Marcos Stakes (Gr. 2) Vagabond Shoes (IRE)

2014 Santa Maria Stakes (Gr. 2) Iotapa

2013 Del Mar Derby (Gr. 2) Ethnic Dance

2013 San Diego Handicap (Gr. 2) Kettle Corn

2013 Del Mar Handicap (Gr. 2) Vagabond Shoes (IRE)

2013 La Canada Stakes (Gr. 2) More Chocolate

2013 Santa Barbara Handicap (Gr. 2) Lady of Shamrock

2013 San Francisco Mile Stakes (Gr. 3) Tigah (GB)

2012 American Oaks Stakes (Gr. 1) Lady of Shamrock

2012 Del Mar Oaks (Gr. 1) Lady of Shamrock

2012 Santa Monica Stakes (Gr. 1) Home Sweet Aspen

2012 A Gleam Handicap (Gr. 2) Switch

2012 Hollywood Juvenile Championship Stakes (Gr. 3) Scherer Magic

2012 Providencia Stakes (Gr. 3) Lady of Shamrock

2011 Las Virgenes Stakes (Gr. 1) Zazu

2011 Lady's Secret Stakes (Gr. 1) Zazu

2011 Santa Monica Stakes (Gr. 1) Switch

2011 John C. Mabee Stakes (Gr. 2) Cozi Rosie

2011 Del Mar Handicap (Gr. 2) Celtic New Year

2011 Strub Stakes (Gr. 2) Twirling Candy

2011 Hollywood Oaks (Gr. 2) Zazu

2011 Californian Stakes (Gr. 2) Twirling Candy

2011 San Antonio Stakes (Gr. 2) Gladding

2011 Buena Vista Handicap (Gr. 2) Cozi Rosie

2011 Generous Stakes (Gr. 3) Stoney Fleece

2011 Native Diver Handicap (Gr. 3)

re: Social Inclusion: Rising Star or One-Hit Wonder?

-Keelerman — Thu, 10 Apr 2014 16:20:17 GMT

Brontexx;

I'm still working on compiling the statistic, but I just finished going through the year 2011, and here's what I found: John Sadler had a starter in four grade I races outside of California that year, and while he didn't pick up a victory, three of his starters did finish in the trifecta. Here are the names of his starters, along with the race they contested and their finishing position:

Switch - 2nd Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Sprint

Runflatout - 7th King's Bishop Stakes

Zazu - 3rd Kentucky Oaks

Switch - 2nd Apple Blossom Handicap

I also took a brief look at the year 2010, and saw that John Sadler won two grade I races outside of California with Line of David (Arkansas Derby) and Mona de Momma (Humana Distaff.) I'll keep researching and see what else I can find!

re: Social Inclusion: Rising Star or One-Hit Wonder?

Rusty Weisner — Thu, 10 Apr 2014 15:03:22 GMT

Pedigree Ann,

You're husband may be an astrophysicist, but I bet he can't handicap horses ;-)

re: Social Inclusion: Rising Star or One-Hit Wonder?

Rusty Weisner — Thu, 10 Apr 2014 15:02:17 GMT

Keelerman,

Beats me about Pablo Del Monte. Is there a Green Giant or a Birdseye?

It's interesting about Albano and speaks well of his trainer, who also kept the outmatched Mark Valeski out of the Derby a couple years back.

re: Social Inclusion: Rising Star or One-Hit Wonder?

Rusty Weisner — Thu, 10 Apr 2014 14:58:21 GMT

Fetch, Keelerman! Go, boy!

re: Social Inclusion: Rising Star or One-Hit Wonder?

Brontexx — Thu, 10 Apr 2014 12:31:49 GMT

Keelerman have you found the stat on Sadler and his graded stakes shippers outside Cali.

Ring Weekend shouldnt run from a competetive standpoint but from the owners view,I dunno never owned horses.You should know their are throwouts every year some years more than others if you can eliminate a quarter of the field 5 you are a lot closer to having a winning bet.I dont have a goal of eliminating five but you cant bet on every one of them at least not on the day of the race so you do need to do some elimination.

re: Social Inclusion: Rising Star or One-Hit Wonder?

Ranagulzion — Thu, 10 Apr 2014 02:16:32 GMT

Keelerman: So far this season there hasn't been any major upset in the Derby prep races. I suspect we'll have one in the Blue Grass on Saturday ...watchout for the grandson of Lemon Drop Kid ...he'll be flying at the finish like Java War did last year.

Bobby's Kitten, Gala Award and Medal Count are the class horses on paper but I think that they are vulnerable on the Keenland surface.

re: Social Inclusion: Rising Star or One-Hit Wonder?

Pedigree Ann — Thu, 10 Apr 2014 01:38:34 GMT

Rusty - my husband is an astrophysicist. Some 35 years ago, as a post-doc, he started developing a computer program for teasing out the composition of interstellar clouds from the spectral lines and other observations. Involves a lot of physics. Turns out it had a lot of other applications in astronomy and has become an industry standard program. So as the program evolves, he is invited to astronomy centers to give short courses on how to use it and where he meets foreign astronomers with whom he has interests in common, so they end up collaborating on papers which they present at meetings, which leads to more invitations...., In Warsaw, we spent a week at the Nicolas Copernicus Center.

I have gone with him to England several times, Chile, China, Israel, France, Netherlands, Belgium, Germany, Austria, Lithuania, Poland, Spain, and the Canary Islands (I think that's all - Hawaii, California and Canada don't count as foreign) in the 30 years we have been married.

Our sabbatical 7 years ago was spent at Cambridge (the English one), just down the road (20 miles) from Newmarket. One interesting thing about that is that I recognized the names of some of the older chasers from when we were there before. (I was a Denman fan, not one of Kauto Star.)Starting in mid-May, we will be at Queen's College Belfast, for the current sabbatical. Not so close to a major racing area, but Ireland is a pretty small island compared to Britain; The Curragh is about a 3-hour drive away.

re: Social Inclusion: Rising Star or One-Hit Wonder?

-Keelerman — Wed, 09 Apr 2014 21:31:15 GMT

The post positions have been drawn for the Arkansas Derby! It looks as though the race could be very interesting from a tactical perspective, since Bayern and Strong Mandate -- two speedy colts in need of Kentucky Derby qualification points -- have drawn the two far outside post positions.

Here are the entries:

1 Danza

2 Knock Em Flat

3 Tapiture

4 Ride On Curlin

5 Thundergram

6 Commissioner

7 Conquest Titan

8 Bayern

9 Strong Mandate

re: Social Inclusion: Rising Star or One-Hit Wonder?

-Keelerman — Wed, 09 Apr 2014 20:54:37 GMT

Rusty Weisner;

I'm looking forward to seeing how Bobby's Kitten fares in the Blue Grass Stakes. If he succeeds in rating off the lead and rallying for victory, I'm going to give him serious consideration as a win contender for the Kentucky Derby. I think he may be one of the most talented colts in this crop, even if he does end up as primarily a grass horse.

I'm curious what you think of Pablo Del Monte's chances. He is unbeaten and unchallenged in two sprint victories over the Keeneland Polytrack, but 0-for-3 since then on dirt and turf. Will a return to Keeneland bring about a much-improved effort?

re: Social Inclusion: Rising Star or One-Hit Wonder?

-Keelerman — Wed, 09 Apr 2014 20:45:29 GMT

It has been reported by DRF.com that Albano, runner-up in the Risen Star Stakes (gr. II), will pass on the Kentucky Derby: www.drf.com/.../kentucky-derby-albano-withdrawn-consideration

Following Albano's defection, Commanding Curve is now sitting in the twentieth position on the Kentucky Derby points list, just ahead of Social Inclusion and Ride On Curlin. I'll be keeping an eye on the status of Ring Weekend, who is not definite for the Derby following his distant second-place finish in the Calder Derby last Saturday.

re: Social Inclusion: Rising Star or One-Hit Wonder?

Rusty Weisner — Wed, 09 Apr 2014 17:54:11 GMT

Keelerman,

Maybe a great race, but woeful to think that three of them could realistically qualify (and theoretically four could) for the Derby. Points leaders, with 20 each, are Harry's Holiday -- who showed on synthetic and started his career with a win on dirt at CD...in a maiden claimer -- and Vinceremos, a TB second or third stringer. Coastline could get in the Derby with a third or fourth. The rest are not dirt horses, or not even very good non-dirt horses.

re: Social Inclusion: Rising Star or One-Hit Wonder?

-Keelerman — Wed, 09 Apr 2014 16:15:52 GMT

The post positions for the Blue Grass Stakes have been drawn! Here they are:

1 Asserting Bear

2 Extrasexyhippzster

3 Pablo Del Monte

4 Harry's Holiday

5 Bobby's Kitten

6 Coltimus Prime

7 Casiguapo

8 Dance With Fate

9 Big Bazinga

10 So Lonesome

11 Coastline

12 Vinceremos

13 Medal Count

14 Gala Award

15 (also-eligible) Divine Oath

It's interesting to see Medal Count wheel back so quickly after winning Keeneland's Transylvania Stakes on April 4th. This looks like a great race!

re: Social Inclusion: Rising Star or One-Hit Wonder?

-Keelerman — Wed, 09 Apr 2014 16:07:43 GMT

Rusty Weisner;

Last I heard, Wise Dan will indeed defend his title in the Woodford Reserve Turf Classic Stakes. There's an outside chance that he could face a couple of European invaders in that race -- 2012 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (gr. I) winner Flotilla and 2012 Hollywood Turf Cup Stakes (gr. II) winner Grandeur are among the nominees.

re: Social Inclusion: Rising Star or One-Hit Wonder?

Rusty Weisner — Wed, 09 Apr 2014 14:46:10 GMT

Keelerman,

Any idea whether Wise Dan is planning on running Derby Day? He really ruined my horizontal wagers last year.

re: Social Inclusion: Rising Star or One-Hit Wonder?

-Keelerman — Wed, 09 Apr 2014 02:09:59 GMT

Looking over the entries for Friday's card at Oaklawn, it looks like there are a couple of intriguing races being run in addition to the Apple Blossom. One is the six-furlong Bachelor Stakes for three-year-olds, which has attracted Bob Baffert's promising allowance winner Pimpernel. Gary Stevens has the mount on the son of Elusive Quality, who will break from post eight in an eleven-horse field.

The other race of interest is an 8.5-furlong allowance optional claiming race that has attracted a very deep field of older horses, including graded stakes winners Called to Serve, Sabercat, and Guilt Trip, as well as the multiple graded stakes-placed colt Frac Daddy.

At Keeneland, the highlight on Friday is without question the $300,000 Maker's 46 Mile Stakes (gr. I), in which Wise Dan will make his seven-year-old debut, but there a number of other races that I'll be interested to see. In particular, there is the fifth race, in which Juddmonte Farm's talented filly Riposte takes on eleven rivals in a nine-furlong turf allowance race; the sixth race, an 8.5-furlong main-track maiden special weight in which Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (gr. I) third-place finisher Colonel Joan will attempt to secure her first victory; and the eighth race, where Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf also-ran Granny Mc's Kitten makes her seasonal debut against eleven rivals in an 8.5-furlong main-track allowance race. It looks like a great card!

re: Social Inclusion: Rising Star or One-Hit Wonder?

-Keelerman — Tue, 08 Apr 2014 22:47:28 GMT

Thanks, Pedigree Ann! I'll be marking August 23rd on my calendar of major races. I had never heard of Newmarket's Round Course, but it sounds like a very special and unique course! I imagine that in a race like the Newmarket Town Plate, at three miles and six furlongs in distance, the strategy of establishing the perfect pace for each horse becomes particularly important. How many starters does the race typically attract?

re: Social Inclusion: Rising Star or One-Hit Wonder?

Brontexx — Tue, 08 Apr 2014 20:26:22 GMT

Keelerman I saw that on DRF or HRN about Sadler being ofer 31 or something like that.I just checked on HRN I went back to 2012 and any stakes races outside of Cali the best finish I saw was 3rd.

I know what this implies to me, but Ill keep it to myself because this is just a theory without proof.

re: Social Inclusion: Rising Star or One-Hit Wonder?

Rusty Weisner — Tue, 08 Apr 2014 19:21:01 GMT

Pedigree Ann,

If I may ask, what is this interesting connection you have to Eastern/Central Europe? You mentioned being in Warsaw and Vilnius recently.