Form, Pedigree, Speed, & Red Flag Analysis of Derby Contenders; Part 1 of 3

re: Form, Pedigree, Speed, & Red Flag Analysis of Derby Contenders; Part 1 of 3

Rusty Weisner — Thu, 17 Apr 2014 22:17:01 GMT

What am I saying? I stayed with ROC in the Arkansas Derby. I took him with Conquest Titan in boxed tris with the other three big contenders in that race.

re: Form, Pedigree, Speed, & Red Flag Analysis of Derby Contenders; Part 1 of 3

AnneM — Thu, 17 Apr 2014 21:36:08 GMT

Can't imagine why anyone would toss out Samraat

re: Form, Pedigree, Speed, & Red Flag Analysis of Derby Contenders; Part 1 of 3

Secreteriat — Thu, 17 Apr 2014 15:50:57 GMT

Tapiture and Strong Mandate both showed signs of intimidation from the Rebel after getting slammed. I blame Rosario for strangling him early and letting him run his race. Santana gets back on him in the Derby and this horse has already won at Churchill. If I see strong workouts in the next two weeks I will use him in the top four at what I think will be very good odds.

re: Form, Pedigree, Speed, & Red Flag Analysis of Derby Contenders; Part 1 of 3

TnT — Thu, 17 Apr 2014 15:48:55 GMT

Rusty . The hardest part of picking the underneath superfecta horse for me is the speed that sticks around......I can think of bodimister and shackleford of the top of my head .

re: Form, Pedigree, Speed, & Red Flag Analysis of Derby Contenders; Part 1 of 3

Rusty Weisner — Thu, 17 Apr 2014 11:43:41 GMT

I've joked about karma coming for Tapiture, but I'd be interested in what people have to say about his form. I took the Arkansas Derby as a bad sign; these horses were beaten by a good horse, but beaten too badly. I think Ride On Curlin, a horse I was on in the Rebel, may just be mediocre.

re: Form, Pedigree, Speed, & Red Flag Analysis of Derby Contenders; Part 1 of 3

Rusty Weisner — Thu, 17 Apr 2014 11:40:59 GMT

garagedrums,

Interesting. Most of those horses you list are tossouts or near tossouts for me, though more on the basis of form and competition than pedigree. I like Intense Holiday, though. Steve Haskin suggests General A Rod has a good pedigree and advocates taking the blinkers off. I find him very astute and thoughtful, so if I see that sign I am going to give that horse a chance, especially as he'll get huge odds. We all know how much that equipment change can matter, especially after last year.

re: Form, Pedigree, Speed, & Red Flag Analysis of Derby Contenders; Part 1 of 3

garagedrums — Thu, 17 Apr 2014 05:34:05 GMT

Tip of the handicapping hat to Rusty. The 3 horses you have identified are logical toss-outs, for the reasons you give and more. But, don't stop there. By your own criteria you could (and should) drop Intense Holiday, We Miss Artie, Ring Weekend, General A Rod and Uncle Sigh. Then, you drop Tapiture, who sure looked over the top in the Rebel and subsequently proved it beyond any shadow of a doubt in the Arkansas Derby. This year's Run for the Roses is suddenly a little easier to figure.

re: Form, Pedigree, Speed, & Red Flag Analysis of Derby Contenders; Part 1 of 3

horseontherun — Wed, 16 Apr 2014 23:04:25 GMT

From this I can say CC is samped by his Sire's pedigree(obviously) Pulpit out of a Cozzene mare should provide enough stamina to go 10 furlongs. I don't know how deep Churchill track is going to be come Derby day, but I know that CC has proven he has an incredible balance and ease of action that I have not seen in a long while. Will wait till all 3 parts are published before commenting on the other horses.

re: Form, Pedigree, Speed, & Red Flag Analysis of Derby Contenders; Part 1 of 3

Sail On — Wed, 16 Apr 2014 21:16:53 GMT

Vicar's In trouble had an abscess burst after the Risen, so I see that race as an outlier. He very well may be a miler, but I am not sure he has shown he cannot go the distance, especially against the competition that is neither faster nor proven at longer distances. It has been hard to have any of these horses rate, since there is no speedsters in the prep races, forcing stalkers to take the lead when the pace is so slow by the quarter pole.

re: Form, Pedigree, Speed, & Red Flag Analysis of Derby Contenders; Part 1 of 3

Rusty Weisner — Wed, 16 Apr 2014 20:42:34 GMT

General question for all: Who was the last Derby winner to "outrun his pedigree"?

Last I remember was Funny Cide.

re: Form, Pedigree, Speed, & Red Flag Analysis of Derby Contenders; Part 1 of 3

Rusty Weisner — Wed, 16 Apr 2014 20:34:10 GMT

Giddyupboywhoa,

There is no brick wall on the Kentucky Derby stretch. CC can lose a length or two in the stretch because of supposed pedigree limitations and still win the Derby if all else goes right.

Nevertheless, I play close attention if there's a consensus about pedigree. I'm rating horses more highly if there's a positive consensus about their pedigree and they:

1. are closers

2. need to improve to win

Intense Holiday fits the bill here as a closer. Hoppertunity needs to improve, and Baffert will manage. Wicked Strong just needs to run back to his last performance. Cairo Prince needs to step forward and there doesn't seem to be a consensus about his pedigree, though I feel strongly he will improve.

I'm tossing horses that have suspect pedigrees if they need to improve to win. Wildcat is one I hope to have the strength of will to go against. Samraat is another. Vicar's In Trouble's another.

re: Form, Pedigree, Speed, & Red Flag Analysis of Derby Contenders; Part 1 of 3

GiddyUpBoyWhoa — Wed, 16 Apr 2014 19:42:29 GMT

Doug, nice article and comments on the listed horses pedigree. It sounds like the two that you thought the most of for handling the Ky. Derby distance is Hoppertunity and Wicked Strong, which is two I've considered using in some form. Your pedigree report on CC sounds like some others I've heard, not good at all. I suppose there is always the chance of a horse just out running his pedigree, but CC may just hit a brick wall down the stretch under the twin spires.

re: Form, Pedigree, Speed, & Red Flag Analysis of Derby Contenders; Part 1 of 3

jockey2be — Wed, 16 Apr 2014 18:05:32 GMT

Looking forward to profile on Wildcat Red!

re: Form, Pedigree, Speed, & Red Flag Analysis of Derby Contenders; Part 1 of 3

Rusty Weisner — Wed, 16 Apr 2014 16:11:36 GMT

Douglas Salvatore,

Good stuff, thanks. I'm interested in the pedigrees of Cairo Prince and General A Rod.