The Dude Returns to Charles Town

re: The Dude Returns to Charles Town

Little Bill — Wed, 23 Apr 2014 16:52:42 GMT

Any interest or thoughts on the Bewitch Stakes, Thur, at Kee? Mott's horse Romantica looks like a stand out but after that it's open. Big field so the payouts should be worthy regardless.

re: The Dude Returns to Charles Town

-Keelerman — Wed, 23 Apr 2014 13:09:21 GMT

Thanks for the congratulations, Rusty Weisner! I appreciate it!

Pedigree Ann;

It sounds like you were right! Bob Baffert has announced that Midnight Hawk will be skipping the Derby and the Preakness to target the Woody Stephens Stakes (gr. II) on Belmont day.

re: The Dude Returns to Charles Town

Rusty Weisner — Sun, 20 Apr 2014 12:55:14 GMT

Keelerman,

Great job calling Dynamic Impact at 10-1 and Irish You Well underneath for a $423-2 trifecta. As I've said before, it's nice when the blog host picks winners, and still more trifectas. I hope you played your own picks.

re: The Dude Returns to Charles Town

Rusty Weisner — Sun, 20 Apr 2014 12:33:43 GMT

Forbidden Apple,

Re: Keelerman's note about Uncle Sigh. I'll be feeling a little better going against Wildcat Red knowing that he will likely have some guaranteed pressure. I remember you complaining last summer about Irad Ortiz always using up horses on the lead.

re: The Dude Returns to Charles Town

-Keelerman — Sun, 20 Apr 2014 02:52:12 GMT

Well, Game On Dude gave it a good try in the Charles Town Classic, but after being pressured in tag-team fashion by Moreno and Long River, he didn't have enough in reserve to hold off the late run of Imperative, who scored by a bit more than a length at odds of 26-1. Moreno was third, followed by Clubhouse Ride, Long River, Ruler of Love, and Lucy's Bob Boy.

It definitely wasn't a bad effort by 'Dude, but at this point, I think it's safe to say that he's not quite as good at bullring racetracks as he is on regular one-mile ovals. Interestingly, Imperative has now beaten Game On Dude twice this year, in both the San Antonio Stakes and tonight's Charles Town Classic. I hope to see them both in the [Hollywood] Gold Cup at Santa Anita this June. That should be a race to see!

re: The Dude Returns to Charles Town

-Keelerman — Sun, 20 Apr 2014 02:40:45 GMT

Rusty Weisner;

Yes indeed, it does invite picking the chalk, doesn't it? Especially in races like these, where the chalk has looked great on paper and finished on-the-board in every stakes race thus far. This contest style might work better on a series of races with more entries and fewer standouts, but I definitely prefer our traditional contest style. Next time, it's back to normal! :)

re: The Dude Returns to Charles Town

Rusty Weisner — Sun, 20 Apr 2014 02:27:04 GMT

Keelerman,

My contest picks were half serious, half tongue-in-cheek. I don't like the format of this one: it invites picking chalk, doesn't it, and after seeing Immortal Eyes I just threw up my hands (I kind of liked that Uncle Todd, too). Next contest, do the money-earned.

I didn't play any of those picks, by the way. We'll see how my $20 betting against Game On Dude goes.

re: The Dude Returns to Charles Town

Pedigree Ann — Sun, 20 Apr 2014 02:24:12 GMT

All of Rise Up's best races have been on bullrings or lower level tracks like Mountaineer. Every time he meets good horses on a better-class 1-mile oval, he's had his head handed to him. Three times in his young career already.

re: The Dude Returns to Charles Town

-Keelerman — Sun, 20 Apr 2014 02:22:20 GMT

Rusty Weisner;

Following the runner-up finish from morning line favorite Quiet Success in the Sugar Maple Stakes, we're both live into the Charles Town Classic! If both Game On Dude and Clubhouse Ride finish in the top three, then this is going to be a very close contest! Currently, I hold a one-dollar edge in aggregate show payoffs, but Clubhouse Ride should pay quite a bit more to show than Game On Dude, especially since he's only the fourth choice in the show pool right now behind 'Dude, Moreno, and Imperative. Good luck!

re: The Dude Returns to Charles Town

-Keelerman — Sun, 20 Apr 2014 02:01:19 GMT

Rusty Weisner;

Looks like we're both live through the first four races of our "Charles Town Challenge!" That was quite a victory by Rise Up in the Robert Hilton Memorial Stakes -- he looked like a completely different horse than the one that ran so poorly at Fair Grounds!

The Preakness Stakes looks like a terrific spot for Midnight Hawk, particularly if the race comes up weak from an early pace perspective, like it did last year. Interestingly, the Beyer for the Illinois Derby came back as a strong 102, and the final time of 1:49.07 is the second-fastest clocking since the turn of the century.

re: The Dude Returns to Charles Town

Rusty Weisner — Sat, 19 Apr 2014 23:31:02 GMT

Keelerman,

Sounds like Midnight Hawk is pointed for the Preakness. Smart one, that Bobby B. I see this, I just like Hoppertunity better.

re: The Dude Returns to Charles Town

-Keelerman — Sat, 19 Apr 2014 22:59:11 GMT

It sound like Kid Cruz will make his next start in the Preakness Stakes, where his experience at Pimlico could give him a mild advantage over the majority of his rivals.

re: The Dude Returns to Charles Town

-Keelerman — Sat, 19 Apr 2014 22:55:10 GMT

Photo finish in the Illinois Derby! After setting moderate fractions of :24.11, :48.06, and 1:12.19, Midnight Hawk seemed to have the measure of pace-tracking Dynamic Impact while opening up a clear advantage turning for home. However, Dynamic Impact stayed on stubbornly in the homestretch, and managed to nail Midnight Hawk right at the finish to win by a nose. Irish You Well and Class Leader rounded out the superfecta. The final time for nine furlongs was 1:49.07 seconds.

At this point, I can't imagine that Midnight Hawk will run back in the Kentucky Derby two weeks from now, which could open the door for Harry's Holiday to join the Derby field. Commanding Curve would then be the bubble horse, with Pablo Del Monte in the 22nd position on the points list.

re: The Dude Returns to Charles Town

-Keelerman — Sat, 19 Apr 2014 22:47:09 GMT

Rusty Weisner;

Clubhouse Ride it is! Good luck!

re: The Dude Returns to Charles Town

-Keelerman — Sat, 19 Apr 2014 22:44:24 GMT

Some late money has just shifted the odds in the Illinois Derby -- Midnight Hawk has dropped to 2-5, while Dynamic Impact and Irish You Well have risen to 12-1 and 20-1, respectively. Class Leader is holding steady at 4-1.

re: The Dude Returns to Charles Town

-Keelerman — Sat, 19 Apr 2014 22:42:58 GMT

There have been plenty of interesting race results so far today! At Keeneland, Frac Daddy was very impressive while dominating the Ben Ali Stakes (gr. III) by almost five lengths, clocking his final three-eighths in a sharp :36.09 en route to a final time of 1:49.61. Stealcase put in a mild run to finish second over Nikki's Sandcastle, but never threatened the winner.

One race later, Mr. Speaker demonstrated an eye-catching turn-of-foot to blow past pacesetters Solitary Ranger and Supermonic and win by four lengths in 1:44.18 seconds. Divine Oath, who was off a step slowly, rallied to edge Supermonic for second by a head, with Ami's Holiday another three-quarters of a length back in fourth.

At Pimlico, Private Terms Stakes winner Kid Cruz -- who scratched from the Wood Memorial due to a lingering shoulder issue -- won the Federico Tesio Stakes in impressive fashion. Rated well off the leaders during the first few furlongs, Kid Cruz moved up down the backstretch to reach contention, maintained his position around the final turn, and burst clear of the field in the homestretch to win by 3 1/2 decisive lengths. The final time of 1:47.38 for 8.5 furlongs was not very fast, but it was partly the result of a 1:16.39 three-quarters fraction.

Coming up in three minutes is the Illinois Derby (gr. III), where Midnight Hawk is the favorite at 3-5. Class Leader is the second choice at 4-1, followed by King Cyrus (8-1) and Dynamic Impact (9-1). The maiden Irish You Well was as low as 11-1 early in the wagering, but has since climbed to 16-1.

re: The Dude Returns to Charles Town

Rusty Weisner — Sat, 19 Apr 2014 22:17:31 GMT

Actually, give me the immortal Immortal Eyes and every ML favorite until the big race: then give me Clubhouse Ride.

re: The Dude Returns to Charles Town

-Keelerman — Sat, 19 Apr 2014 22:16:20 GMT

Rusty Weisner;

Thanks for joining the contest! Here are my selections:

Race 7: Immortal Eyes

Race 8: Down Town Allen

Race 9: Wise Mac

Race 10: Rise Up

Race 11: Quiet Success

Race 12: Game On Dude

I'm based in Wisconsin, where spring is finally starting to show itself after a winter with more snowfall than any other winter in recorded history. Needless to say, it's nice to see the ground again! :)

re: The Dude Returns to Charles Town

Rusty Weisner — Sat, 19 Apr 2014 21:18:19 GMT

Charles Town contest.

R7: Immortal Eyes

...and give me the listed ML favorite in every race after that.

I love the concept of the two-turn 7f race, by the way. If they were ponies it might be easier to handicap using traditional methods.

re: The Dude Returns to Charles Town

Rusty Weisner — Sat, 19 Apr 2014 21:05:23 GMT

Keelerman,

I was utterly dismissive of Dance With Fate as a Derby prospect until I looked at the pp's again. He actually had good dirt form. I'm inclined to think running him is a case of overexuberance, but I'll have to give him at least some consideration.

Where are you based, by the way?

re: The Dude Returns to Charles Town

-Keelerman — Sat, 19 Apr 2014 19:41:34 GMT

Rusty Weisner;

That's interesting -- I was starting to like the chances of Cairo Prince as well. Hopefully, he'll be back in good form by summer.

re: The Dude Returns to Charles Town

Rusty Weisner — Sat, 19 Apr 2014 18:42:31 GMT

I was starting to like Cairo Prince and had him in my top 5 despite misgivings. At least I'll have fewer misgivings betting the Derby now.

re: The Dude Returns to Charles Town

Rusty Weisner — Sat, 19 Apr 2014 18:41:05 GMT

Don't they get jetlag running at 10:30 EST?

re: The Dude Returns to Charles Town

Rusty Weisner — Sat, 19 Apr 2014 18:35:57 GMT

Forbidden Apple,

After a quick peek at the pp's I actually like Long River. $2 boxed exactas with him, Clubhouse Ride, Moreno, another $4 box Long River/Clubhouse Ride.

re: The Dude Returns to Charles Town

Rusty Weisner — Sat, 19 Apr 2014 18:16:22 GMT

Commanding Curve and Golden Soul -- portentous?

Plod Boy Phil,

I'm going to bet no. Maybe Clubhouse Ride again in exactas with some non-GOD horses. I haven't looked at pp's yet. I'm curious what to make of Moreno after missing his last out.

Forbidden Apple,

I don't like the plodder to close on this track.