Form, Pedigree, Speed, & Red Flag Analysis of Derby Contenders; Part 2 of 3

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re: Form, Pedigree, Speed, & Red Flag Analysis of Derby Contenders; Part 2 of 3

Lise from Maine — Tue, 29 Apr 2014 16:16:09 GMT

Hi!

I am still thinking on who I will bet on but Chitu looks great.

Thank you!

Lise from Maine

re: Form, Pedigree, Speed, & Red Flag Analysis of Derby Contenders; Part 2 of 3

Fernando Rodriguez Larrain de Lavalle — Sun, 27 Apr 2014 10:20:05 GMT

Doug : hello . are you going to publish part 3 of your article Form, Pedigree, Speed, & Red Flag Analysis of Derby Contenders?

re: Form, Pedigree, Speed, & Red Flag Analysis of Derby Contenders; Part 2 of 3

Cassandra.Says — Wed, 23 Apr 2014 02:37:46 GMT

Game on Dude has been tossing in occasional bad breaks all his life.

re: Form, Pedigree, Speed, & Red Flag Analysis of Derby Contenders; Part 2 of 3

GiddyUpBoyWhoa — Tue, 22 Apr 2014 08:40:49 GMT

When is part 3 coming out?

re: Form, Pedigree, Speed, & Red Flag Analysis of Derby Contenders; Part 2 of 3

Little Bill — Mon, 21 Apr 2014 04:19:20 GMT

My bad, Chitu is already on the grounds.

re: Form, Pedigree, Speed, & Red Flag Analysis of Derby Contenders; Part 2 of 3

Little Bill — Mon, 21 Apr 2014 02:57:03 GMT

I've read about several So Cal horses on 2 or 3 flights but no mention of Chitu. Hoppertunity to arrive tomorrow.

re: Form, Pedigree, Speed, & Red Flag Analysis of Derby Contenders; Part 2 of 3

Rusty Weisner — Sun, 20 Apr 2014 12:46:45 GMT

El Kabong,

I like Intense Holiday, too, and I've shown some predictive abilities with this bunch at Fair Grounds this year. I liked VIT in the Lecomte, IH in the Risen Star, VIT again in the La Derby. I felt like IH was due to plateau in that race and VIT was a good bet off a bad trip. IH has been like clockwork in his progression and I think is due to move forward enough to hit the board.

re: Form, Pedigree, Speed, & Red Flag Analysis of Derby Contenders; Part 2 of 3

Cosmo — Sat, 19 Apr 2014 14:07:22 GMT

This is a below average Derby field...either Chrome wins for fun or a 20-1 bomb explodes in the stretch and blows up the tote!

If Chrome gets cooked by the pace and what little form there is does fall apart, the trifecta could easily consist of three 20-1 shots!

re: Form, Pedigree, Speed, & Red Flag Analysis of Derby Contenders; Part 2 of 3

horseontherun — Fri, 18 Apr 2014 23:50:56 GMT

Wildcard Red is an extremely courageous horse, but he needs to break on top and not get shuffled back. Unfortunately the choice of jockey is not good here, Bejarano managed to break bad and get shuffled back with Game On Dude no less, in a race that did not have much early pace in it. He rarely wins on the east coast, and I am sure the guy suffers from A.D.D. because he has been left flat on his rear breaking out of the gate. That works on short fields in California when he is on the best horse by many lengths, but in the Derby he is a detriment. I love Henny Hughes as a sire, so sorry to se him in Japan. We just never knew how to breed to him in this country, till he was gone, stallions and breeders need at least 10 years to get a "nick" going, and I am sure he will sire a classic winner under the red sun. Chitu might prove a serious threat in the Derby however we shall see as Bafert did not give him enough time to mature nor to develop, this is a horse that needs to run his way to the classical and not have it shoved down his throat, which lately has been Baffert's style, and his horses don't last because of that, Baert is doing his best to meet deadlines but he is being considerate to the animal only to his patrons wishes which is a requirement, and owners sometimes get carried away.

re: Form, Pedigree, Speed, & Red Flag Analysis of Derby Contenders; Part 2 of 3

-Keelerman — Fri, 18 Apr 2014 17:04:58 GMT

Breaking news! It was announced this morning that Blue Grass Stakes winner Dance With Fate, who had been considered unlikely for the Kentucky Derby, will start in the Derby after all.

re: Form, Pedigree, Speed, & Red Flag Analysis of Derby Contenders; Part 2 of 3

El Kabong — Fri, 18 Apr 2014 16:45:47 GMT

Doug,

Intense Holiday is a horse that I am really expecting to show up May 3. I have reviewed the LD and what I found was most detrimental to his run was a steady in the far turn just as Mike was getting him going. It cost him dearly. Watch the race again, he is close to pace, in the picture, then Mike has to steady him because Louie's Flower veers out actually bumps him according to the DRF, but worst of all, stalls his run. Instantly IH is out of the picture and has to re-rally. But as Mike made reference in his comments about Rosie's brilliant ride, the race turned into a 2F finish instead of the 3F finish Mike wanted because of this incident. It was very important because nobody who was not on the lead or within a length of the leader at the top of the lane at FG that day won. The nations longest stretch and no one is closing? Call it what you want, I know what I call it, but it played a hand in the race and so did Louie's Flower. I know that's racing and it will be tougher in the Derby. Racing luck plays a part but I'm not tossing this guy out of my exotics, no way no how. He has a great foundation and I'm going to be watching for his works and Steve's comments on this guy in Louisville. I think he is one who stays in contention when they go 10F's and not many do. Look at Derby charts and notice how many end up 10 lengths or more behind the winner. It's astounding. The burn of 10Fs and racing incidents results in most horses being left up the track. Great material so far, and a good column. Looking forward to the next.

re: Form, Pedigree, Speed, & Red Flag Analysis of Derby Contenders; Part 2 of 3

Monarchos Matt — Fri, 18 Apr 2014 15:46:33 GMT

It Ain't Easy,

Oh for sure. 30-1 on Ride on Curlin is laughable, especially with Borel on board. He'll probably be about half that, but that's still pretty good value for a show bet and to spice up exotics.

Orb went off as the narrow favorite last year (5.40), but you are correct that Revolutionary was bet down to 6.40, which was good for the second choice, and I think that he was the favorite for most of the day but a ton of late money came in on Orb. Still, you have to wonder, with every year that passes and Borel not winning, how much this angle will begin to fade away.

For now, I think I'll trade the fact that his odds may be a bit lower than they should be for the fact that he gets Borel.

re: Form, Pedigree, Speed, & Red Flag Analysis of Derby Contenders; Part 2 of 3

It aint easy being good! — Fri, 18 Apr 2014 15:30:55 GMT

Monarchos Matt I 100% agree with you its seems like a virtual lock that ROC will hit the board. Borail wont be fanning him 7 wide on the turn. 30-1 would be nice but remember anything Calvin is on gets pounded down to nothing. Wasnt revolutionary the favorite last year??

re: Form, Pedigree, Speed, & Red Flag Analysis of Derby Contenders; Part 2 of 3

Monarchos Matt — Fri, 18 Apr 2014 14:12:24 GMT

Ride on Curlin sure doesn't seem like he wants to win, but now he gets Borel on board at Churchill? Hard to take him on top but wouldn't be the most surprising thing ever if he took a step forward and won this race. I'm thinking a show bet on him might be the best value wager on the entire board, it's a virtual guarantee. He doesn't win but he's always in the mix, and DRF has him at 30-1 right now...leave him off your trifecta ticket at your peril.

re: Form, Pedigree, Speed, & Red Flag Analysis of Derby Contenders; Part 2 of 3

jockey2be — Thu, 17 Apr 2014 23:55:29 GMT

Yay!I love Wildcat Red!

re: Form, Pedigree, Speed, & Red Flag Analysis of Derby Contenders; Part 2 of 3

TnT — Thu, 17 Apr 2014 22:41:49 GMT

Really starting to like Chitu, will be at the expense of Samratt and Wild Cat Red, if I play him. My first impression was he looked really tired at the finish of the Sunland.