Three Derby Longshots to Consider

re: Three Derby Longshots to Consider

-Keelerman — Sun, 04 May 2014 15:52:56 GMT

Congratulations, El Kabong!! That was fantastic score!! Great job!!

re: Three Derby Longshots to Consider

El Kabong — Sun, 04 May 2014 01:58:46 GMT

Keelerman,

Thanks. It is no point of pride, but I place all my bets online. I Went out to my local track and decided to play my back up ticket there. Chrome with a shot, with my logical horses finishing 3rd and 4th. My ace in the hole. I picked Dance With Fate and Commanding Curve as my shots. I had Danza 3rd, and a slew of horses 4th. 4 8 12 14 16 18 19 and 20. No one was sure of 4th. I had to wait, watching on tv from home. Wicked got 4th. My back up hit. No pride other than I had to play a ticket with the monster getting his race with a shot. It worked out. I'm going back to Emerald Downs tomorrow to cash. Not because I handicapped it right, but because I know you can't always be right and I play a ticket that reflects that. Luck. That's all. But you have to play a ticket every year that defies logic. The Derby always humbles a know it all, and I accept that.

re: Three Derby Longshots to Consider

-Keelerman — Sat, 03 May 2014 22:59:38 GMT

Good luck, El Kabong! I'll be sure to check out your selections! Have fun at the track!

re: Three Derby Longshots to Consider

El Kabong — Sat, 03 May 2014 14:24:41 GMT

Keelerman,

Good luck to you today. Thanks for the fun blog. looking forward to more of your columns. I posted my picks on steve's sight if you or anyone else want to read. Good luck again I'm off to the track.

re: Three Derby Longshots to Consider

Brontexx — Thu, 01 May 2014 23:37:44 GMT

I am opening nominations for wise guy horse I nominate Medal Count who will run his 3rd race in 30 days anyone second the nomination or want to nominate another colt,be my guest.

re: Three Derby Longshots to Consider

-Keelerman — Thu, 01 May 2014 22:24:44 GMT

According to my watch, it is exactly forty-eight hours until post time for the Kentucky Derby. It's decision-making time!

Here's the link to my latest blog post, with my selections for the Kentucky Derby: cs.bloodhorse.com/.../kentucky-derby-140-selections.aspx

re: Three Derby Longshots to Consider

JerseyBoy — Thu, 01 May 2014 22:01:16 GMT

If the track is dry, I go with Danza in the Kentucky Derby.

If the track is soft or good at Newmarket, I go with Kingston Hill in the 2000 Guineas. I went to his wedding, so I have something to spend on his funeral.

re: Three Derby Longshots to Consider

Secreteriat — Thu, 01 May 2014 20:51:52 GMT

Monarchos Matt,

Will ROC weight going from 118 to 126 in the derby trouble you. The other contenders carried 122 in their last preps. 4lbs could make a difference in the last 1/8 of a mile

re: Three Derby Longshots to Consider

Plod Boy Phil — Thu, 01 May 2014 20:27:46 GMT

She's a Tiger rates bold upgrade status on Friday. Easily the best 2yo paper we've ever seen with four 'vs Zip' upgrades in races that strongly favored closers, including one Xtreme. Her last three 'wins' came despite Flows that will far more often than not be won by stalker/closers. Her big year starts now.

re: Three Derby Longshots to Consider

Rusty Weisner — Thu, 01 May 2014 20:23:53 GMT

I just watched Clearly Now's Cigar Mile and that was quite a stumble. Clearly now was one of the best here against older. Definitely Sahara Sky/Clearly Now.

re: Three Derby Longshots to Consider

Rusty Weisner — Thu, 01 May 2014 20:20:58 GMT

Keelerman,

I don't like Delaunay. The only graded stakes he's won was precisely that weak edition of this one last year, in slop. I like Clearly Now second. I particularly like these two because they both seem to have the excuse of having got caught flat footed in the Carter. As to why Shakin' It Up is ML favorite, I'm baffled...oh, Baffert.

Some others, I guess, have a chance, but I should probably suck it up and single Sahara Sky.

re: Three Derby Longshots to Consider

-Keelerman — Thu, 01 May 2014 20:03:06 GMT

Rusty Weisner;

I agree, the Churchill Downs Stakes has drawn a fantastic field this year. Sahara Sky does look tough to beat, but I think Clearly Now and Delaunay have respectable chances. The latter is 4-for-4 at Churchill Downs and was compromised last time out by a severe rail bias at Fair Grounds, so things should shape up better for him on Saturday.

re: Three Derby Longshots to Consider

-Keelerman — Thu, 01 May 2014 19:55:51 GMT

Secretariat;

That's a good point about Ride On Curlin picking up eight pounds; I hadn't noticed that before. I agree with Monarchos Matt that it probably won't have too much of an impact on his chances, since he'll likely be coming from well behind, but I now see that Danza will be picking up the same amount of weight. As a runner with more tactical speed, it might affect him more than Ride On Curlin. Thanks for pointing it out!

re: Three Derby Longshots to Consider

-Keelerman — Thu, 01 May 2014 19:50:55 GMT

I hate to be the one to break more bad news, but Normandy Invasion has scratched from the Alysheba Stakes with a quarter crack. It is hoped that he will be back in time to make the Metropolitan Handicap on Belmont day.

re: Three Derby Longshots to Consider

Rusty Weisner — Thu, 01 May 2014 19:37:44 GMT

The Churchill Downs, R9, is much improved this year. It has the tenor of a G1 race, while last year's was like a G3, and in slop, to boot.

re: Three Derby Longshots to Consider

Rusty Weisner — Thu, 01 May 2014 19:25:34 GMT

Monarchos Matt,

I like to play the Oaks just to see how the track is playing. And because I like an excuse to bet on horses.

re: Three Derby Longshots to Consider

Rusty Weisner — Thu, 01 May 2014 19:18:12 GMT

Monarchos Matt,

A yearly tradition for me (not really a good sign) is to try to find a single in the last race, R13, to play the late, late P4 (I hit this P4 the Big Brown year and narrowly missed it in IHA's). There's a Baffert horse, Party Time, that looks the part; ran competitively with the decent Dublin Up, who, I might remind others, was barely beaten by Candy Boy despite being used up on the lead.

re: Three Derby Longshots to Consider

Plod Boy Phil — Thu, 01 May 2014 18:47:51 GMT

KJ -

Concur, concur.

He's one of two for us.

re: Three Derby Longshots to Consider

Rusty Weisner — Thu, 01 May 2014 18:46:34 GMT

Monarchos Matt,

I made some notes about R7-11 on the Oaks card. Keelerman is my lucky charm, so I think I will play vertical exotics in the Oaks the way I described them in my little exchange with him. I like Fiftyshadesofgold as a single in the Eight Belles, Normandy Invasion in the Alysheba, Untapable/Ria Antonia in the Oaks. I can work out some P4 tickets with all that. I'll also play verticals in R7, and maybe even a P5 with singles of both Fiftyshadesofgold and Normandy Invasion. But I have to look it all over again.

I've looked at the Saturday card. Right now I like a couple horses in the first two races. The 6 in R1, Prosecution, closed a lot of ground despite running very wide in the slop. There are a couple other contenders at lower odds and some 3-yos. The 6 in R2 beat Commanding Curve & Thundergram in his maiden last fall at CD and it's his first race as a 3yo. All the races till R7 (start of P5) are a muddle to me.

I like the favorite, Judy the Beauty, in R7. She could be my kamikaze single in a P5 if I can narrow it down; I might try her on the front end and CC on the tail end of a P5; I would then have a realistic chance of having CC covered in the Derby.

R8 I like Storming Inti best.

R9 is really good, the 7f Churchill Downs. I like Sahara sky best, but will probably have a ticket where a give a few others, even Capo Bastone, a chance.

There are three G1 winners in the Woodford running against Wise Dan. I will give them all a chance, plus Skyring, who is always eerily popping up when I play, and the one who tried to catch Wise Dan last out at 37-1. It wasn't as close as the chart made it sound, but the horse seems to have made a great improvement as a 4-yo.

re: Three Derby Longshots to Consider

Plod Boy Phil — Thu, 01 May 2014 18:33:11 GMT

Rusty -

Nothing sinister. I looked at the PPs this morning for the first time since any of them last raced. Needed Derby Grades for the Oaks Day Report.

re: Three Derby Longshots to Consider

Monarchos Matt — Thu, 01 May 2014 17:52:42 GMT

Rusty,

I'm currently working on two trifecta tickets. A wide one with Wicked Strong keyed on top, and a narrower one with CC and ROC on top.

Not planning to bet the Oaks card but was hoping to get some work done on Saturday's undercard by now. That hasn't happened...

re: Three Derby Longshots to Consider

Monarchos Matt — Thu, 01 May 2014 17:46:30 GMT

Coldfacts,

My main problem with Vinceremos is that he just hasn't shown the pure speed to contend with these. With a career high lifetime Beyer of only 88 (bottom 3 in the field), he would need to improve massively to hit the board. But, crazier things have happened in this race. MTB winning the race with even worse speed figs was crazier. And we've probably seen crazier 4th place finishers as well based on pedigree (Went the Day Well?) This is exactly why I avoid the super. Getting the first three right is hard enough, and while I won't talk you out of Vinceremos, I like others better in that spot. Good luck!

re: Three Derby Longshots to Consider

Monarchos Matt — Thu, 01 May 2014 17:39:29 GMT

Secretariat,

That's a very good point you bring up. I generally do not pay too much attention to weight changes, but can certainly see the angle in how that could have impact over a race of this distance. I suppose I would be more concerned if I thought ROC would somehow be forced to go too early, but his wide post essentially assures that he'll have to drop back early as he should, and I expect him to have plenty left in the tank irrespective of the added weight.

re: Three Derby Longshots to Consider

Rusty Weisner — Thu, 01 May 2014 17:35:56 GMT

Keelerman, Plod Boy Phil --

I will take Pablo del Monte to hit the board at 50-1 (or more) with no qualms whatsoever. He stuck out like a sore thumb in the Bluegrass.

re: Three Derby Longshots to Consider

Rusty Weisner — Thu, 01 May 2014 17:30:01 GMT

Plod Boy Phil,

Should I find something sinister in your sudden reappearance at the moment of Hoppertunity's scratch?