Kentucky Derby 140 Selections

re: Kentucky Derby 140 Selections

Coldfacts — Thu, 08 May 2014 19:12:01 GMT

“Social Inclusion is a good horse," he said. "I don't know how far he can go. He will have to improve a lot. He's getting mature now because he's a May foal. I believe he's going to improve a lot from now on."

Cited above are statements from Social Inclusion’s trainer. The statement that troubles me is "I don't know how far he can go” OK! He set a NTR at 8 1/2F. He battled to a 3rd place finish in the 9F Wood. What would an experience trainer that has won 3500 races in Venezuela and 950 in the US deduce from those two races?

He was full of run at 8.5F and ran out of energy at 9F. Does 1/2F make much a difference to a classy horse? I contend no. The Wood revealed a stamina weakness. This is where specialized training for stamina building comes into play. In the five weeks since his last race his trainer is in no position to specify if the distance of 9.5F will be a problem. What adjustments were made to his training to build his stamina?

He was sired by a horse that finished 2nd in the Derby and his grand sire won the Belmont. His dam sire also sired the winner of the BCC and is from a stamina line. The colt has a stamina pedigree and just need to be trained properly to carry its speed. Instead of stating “I don't know how far he can go” state that he has been prepared to give his best at the Preakness and the distance should not be a problem. There is a difference between running for a piece of a $1.5M purse and running to win.

re: Kentucky Derby 140 Selections

Coldfacts — Thu, 08 May 2014 19:10:22 GMT

Rusty Weisner,

The Derby was such a disappointment I only just watched the video. Calvin must have had a senior moment of ROC. The rider on Wicked Strong must have though he was in a demolition Derby.

Even if CC was ridden out to the line I doubt he would broken 2:03 and if he did it would not have been by much. If in 2014 a 3YO colt cannot record at least 2:02 for 10F on a fast CD track, I just do not know what to think. I guess those finishing behind him need to improve significantly.

I cannot believe after modest fractions most in the leading group had nothing left after a mile. Amazing!

It is a good thing other major racing jurisdictions race mainly on turf.

re: Kentucky Derby 140 Selections

TnT — Thu, 08 May 2014 18:44:46 GMT

Will be looking for coldfacts boy Outstrip, and any of O'brien's war front's.

re: Kentucky Derby 140 Selections

-Keelerman — Thu, 08 May 2014 18:41:45 GMT

Thanks, TnT!

re: Kentucky Derby 140 Selections

-Keelerman — Thu, 08 May 2014 18:40:14 GMT

Looking over the entries for this weekend, it looks like there are some really nice races on the agenda! I'm really looking forward to the return of Grace Hall in the Ruffian Handicap (gr. II) at Belmont this Sunday.

Here's the link to my latest blog post, which includes my thoughts on Saturday's Peter Pan Stakes (gr. II) at Belmont Park: cs.bloodhorse.com/.../tonalist-can-make-a-statement-in-peter-pan-stakes.aspx

re: Kentucky Derby 140 Selections

TnT — Thu, 08 May 2014 18:38:05 GMT

MEXIKOMA is coming along nicely at Fair Hill. Barry Irwin told HRTV today that the colt needed a lot of time to bounce back from his illness this winter, but he is now a few weeks away from a race and will have the Travers Stakes as his goal this summer. His 3yo debut continues to look like a key race after the horse who finished one spot behind him, Wicked Strong, finished fourth with trouble in the Kentucky Derby.

PER HTRV

re: Kentucky Derby 140 Selections

Brontexx — Thu, 08 May 2014 18:36:54 GMT

Borel tried to change tactics with ROC and was fired after the race.Baffert will probably get Smith or Stevens to ride Bayern and I doubt he goes off at higher odds than SI.Bayern will be the 2nd choice I dunno about you but I dont play 1-2 in exactas unless its obvious like Ill Have Another and Bodemeister.

re: Kentucky Derby 140 Selections

Brontexx — Thu, 08 May 2014 18:31:12 GMT

SI drew the farthest outside post(11) in a tough Wood I would like to see him draw the one hole like he did in his first two and keep the blinkers on.He is a Pioneer of the Nile offspring and his dam side is not too shabby.If Bayern changes his style too much in a grade one race he will probably finish off the board.

To reiterate Bafferts best hope was Hoppertunity dont be fooled by his second stringers.

re: Kentucky Derby 140 Selections

Coldfacts — Thu, 08 May 2014 18:30:30 GMT

Rusty Weisner,

The Derby was such a disappointment and I only just watched the video. Calvin must have had a senior moment of ROC. The rider on Wicked Strong must have though he was in a demolition Derby.

Even if CC was ridden out to the line I doubt he would broken 2:03 and if he did it would not have been by much. If 1n 2014 a 3YO colt cannot record at least 2:02 for 10F on a fast CD track, I just do not know what to think. I guess those finishing behind him are need to improve significantly.

I cannot believe after modest fractions most in the leading group had nothing left after a mile. Amazing!

It is a good think other major racing jurisdiction race mainly on turf.

re: Kentucky Derby 140 Selections

-Keelerman — Thu, 08 May 2014 18:18:49 GMT

TnT;

I heard that there's been some interest from Japan in those two invitational turf races, so I'm hopeful that both races will draw terrific international fields! One probable starter from the U.S. is Medal Count, as Dale Romans has said he will point the colt toward the Belmont Derby.

re: Kentucky Derby 140 Selections

-Keelerman — Thu, 08 May 2014 18:13:49 GMT

TnT;

What happened to Mexikoma? I figured something must have gone wrong since he wasn't entered in the Peter Pan, but I hadn't heard anything about waiting for the Travers. Did he come down with an illness, or minor injury?

re: Kentucky Derby 140 Selections

TnT — Thu, 08 May 2014 18:07:43 GMT

Thanks Keerlman.

Glad to hear Danza is out preakness, There is no doubt I will be taking him fresh to WIN the Belmont, despite his fatigued finish in the KD, I believe he can get a mile and a half at big sandy.

Noticed 2 new 3 year old invitational turf derbies at belmont on July 5th, both over 1M in purses. Hoping big feilds and Euros, will be good betting races.

Looking at Matterhorn in the Peter Pan. Mexikoma out till Travers.

re: Kentucky Derby 140 Selections

-Keelerman — Thu, 08 May 2014 17:42:57 GMT

TnT;

It sounds like Danza is unlikely to run in the Preakness Stakes, although no definite decision has been made. However, the Belmont Stakes is still a possibility.

Derbygal;

Thanks for sharing that! I've got my fingers crossed that Untapable runs in the Acorn Stakes, which would add another major name to the already incredible list of stars scheduled to compete at Belmont on Belmont Stakes day.

re: Kentucky Derby 140 Selections

Rusty Weisner — Thu, 08 May 2014 15:54:29 GMT

Coldfacts,

I like your comments about Social Inclusion. My comment above was that I the only betting angle I see is keeping SI out of the tri. You give me a little more strength of conviction. I didn't like the comments, either, and the way SI quit suddenly in the stretch made an impression on me.

I think with ROC you can blame the ride, as the trainer did, not the track: Run to rail and drop to dead last, then come 8-wide into the stretch.

re: Kentucky Derby 140 Selections

Secreteriat — Thu, 08 May 2014 15:09:21 GMT

Coldfacts,

Baffert;s 5 wins are very impressive,

Espinoza won with War Emblem and has a 2nd and 3rd so he knows Pimlico well. Ride on Curlin will finally get a clear trip and should finish in the money.

My super will be CC and Bayern in 2 top spots over same+ ROC, SI,KC over All on the bottom.

re: Kentucky Derby 140 Selections

Coldfacts — Thu, 08 May 2014 14:29:16 GMT

Only three from the Derby are probable in the Preakness. Wow! The Derby must have taken its toll on many. I am surprised Lukas did not enter Strong Mandate. I am sure he will race next with blinkers off.

Dynamic Impact: An interesting probable. This big powerful son of Tiznow won his last two starts and gave every indication longer is better. He has tactical speed to say close to the leader and is blessed with stamina. His dam sire Smart Strike has a positive Preakness history. Curlin and Lookin At Lucky who were sired by Smart Strike won the Preakness. The dam of Mine That who finished 2nd in the Preakness was sired by Smart Strike. The Belmont seems ideal for DI but he should be a worthy Preakness opponent for CC and others.

Social Inclusion: I cannot get over the comments of his trainer after the Wood. “He will Kill them next time” What the hell does that mean? What prevented him from killing them in the Wood? That’s not a serious trainer and he gets my vote of no confidence. It was obvious SI was a short horse in the Wood. He came to the top of the stretch in hand and had to battle when asked. Clearly he was not trained to effectively run 9F.

His trainer needs to remove the blinkers. What purpose do they serve? The colt had natural speed and their removal will help him to relax. One has to question his preparation for the Preakness. Reported works of 3F in 34 and 4F in 46 for a 9 1/2F race are impressive but concerning. The colt labored in the last furlong of the Wood. He needs more stamina building repetitions as he already has exceptional speed. Nice colt in the wrong hands.

Bayern: The most dangerous horse in the field. Why? Speedy Bob! He owns the Preakness with 5 victories in the last 16 renewals. He also recorded a 2nd place with Bodemeister and a 3rd place finish with Congaree. It is safe to state that Speedy Bod knows how to win the Preakness. Bayern should enjoy the speed favoring strip at Pimlico and 9 1/2F should be in his reach.

Ride ON Curlin: It was not surprising he ran so baldy in the Derby. He has a poor record at CD. He set a NTR on the only speed favoring track he has raced. He will simply love speed favoring Pimlico. His sire won the Preakness and his connections are hoping he can emulate Charismatic’s victory who was likewise sired by a Preakness winner i.e., Summer Squall. This colt has ability and is capable of striking when eyes are off.

re: Kentucky Derby 140 Selections

Rusty Weisner — Thu, 08 May 2014 13:44:03 GMT

Secretariat,

Yes, "try to beat" means also including the one I'm trying to beat.

I will keep an eye on Tonalist, thanks.

I was curious how many new shooters have even hit the board in the Preakness since 2001:

2001: none

2002: 2nd

2003: 2nd

2004: 2nd, 3rd

2005: 2nd

2006: 1st, 3rd

2007: none

2008: 3rd

2009: 1st

2010: 2nd

2011: 3rd

2012: none

2013: none

I guess the last couple years gave me a stronger bias against new ones than they warrant; still, they don't win this leg.

re: Kentucky Derby 140 Selections

derbygal — Thu, 08 May 2014 04:47:35 GMT

Keelerman; DRF; Showing where Kentucky Oaks winner Untapable will run next in either the Acorn or the Mother Goose at Belmont Park.

re: Kentucky Derby 140 Selections

Brontexx — Thu, 08 May 2014 01:37:44 GMT

I dont know if Pablo wants try SI,KD pacesetter Uncle Sigh tried to hang with SI and he was smoked in the Wood.In the KD it was Uncle Sigh and Chitu setting the pace, I think you dont know the Wood was the toughest 9 panel prep this season, if you didnt know that refer to whats on paper on Brisnet for the first two figs even Wicked Strong was close enuff that he would not be considered a plodder by most.Even if CC gets the W he wont be running 12 furlongs at 100% peak ability especially after the Preakness.

re: Kentucky Derby 140 Selections

Secreteriat — Wed, 07 May 2014 23:20:42 GMT

Brontexx,

It looks like the speed will be Social Inclusion and Pablo. I think Bayern and CC will stalk this time and make their run at the 3/8 pole. Espinosa concerns a bit because he shut him down before the wire. I hope he does not do that in the Preakness. We donot want CC to think the race is over too soon in the Belmont with 5/16 more to run. Rusty Keep an eye on Tonalist in the Peter Pan. He may be the Fresh horse in the Belmont that could peak that day.

re: Kentucky Derby 140 Selections

Brontexx — Wed, 07 May 2014 20:03:28 GMT

Bay of Plenty 6 belmont

re: Kentucky Derby 140 Selections

TnT — Wed, 07 May 2014 17:28:22 GMT

Is Danza in or out the preakness, have not seen any updates on him. Maybe chalk exacta.

Dont mind Kid Cruz running out, better odds at belmont.

Peter Pan may have Tonalist and Mexikoma 2 horses that fit the bill. I'll go with the Birdstone.

re: Kentucky Derby 140 Selections

-Keelerman — Wed, 07 May 2014 17:11:16 GMT

Rusty Weisner;

Yes, I thought the Haskell might be a nice fit because of the distance, given that she is a daughter of Tapit. But it's just speculation -- Steve Asmussen hasn't specifically mentioned the Haskell and the Travers, and given that he has also talked about wanting to keep Untapable around for a long time, it wouldn't surprise me if she doesn't face males until next year.

re: Kentucky Derby 140 Selections

Brontexx — Wed, 07 May 2014 16:44:46 GMT

Secreteriat CC has a good chance to win the Preakness but I bet he will get a tougher test at Baltimore on two weeks rest with Social Inclusion and Bayern.His breeding is American breeding that has been lasix infused for a long time and his training method dosent matter its still two weeks rest and he is a lasix user.

re: Kentucky Derby 140 Selections

Secreteriat — Wed, 07 May 2014 16:39:15 GMT

Thank you Rusty

Hedge whatever you do with some kind of bet with the Chrome . It's been more 40 yrs since the Triple Crown

This year's crop is weak and Bayern and Social Inclusion will run themselves into the ground.

I like CC over Kid CruZ as of now for the Preakness but waiting for the PP's to see if there are any Maryland horses that may be looking for a placing at a juicy price.