Tonalist Can Make a Statement in Peter Pan Stakes

re: Tonalist Can Make a Statement in Peter Pan Stakes

-Keelerman — Tue, 13 May 2014 20:16:07 GMT

As the Preakness Stakes draws closer and closer, I can't help but wonder about the striking similarities between Bayern and Paynter, runner-up in the 2012 Belmont Stakes. These similarities, and what they might mean in regard to the Preakness, are the topic of my latest blog post! :)

Here's the link: cs.bloodhorse.com/.../striking-similarities-between-bayern-and-paynter.aspx

re: Tonalist Can Make a Statement in Peter Pan Stakes

Rusty Weisner — Tue, 13 May 2014 15:16:58 GMT

Andrew Beyer had a column today where he complains about only three Derby starters running back. I don't think it'll win me any money, but he echoed all my thoughts about how the Derby horses are razor sharp and nearly always do well two weeks back. He also used Normandy Invasion as an example of a missed opportunity, even using the same language I did when I complained about him not running back (I thought he was a "cinch"): the owners needed to "strike while the iron is hot." This was interesting, because, according to Beyer, NI's foot problems occurred AFTER they'd already decided not to run him in the Preakness, and I had had the impression it was the other way around, that they kept him out because of a foot problem.

Anyway, the column highlights the reason some of these Preakness wins have been such blowouts (Funny Cide, Smarty Jones, Big Brown): small, weak fields.

re: Tonalist Can Make a Statement in Peter Pan Stakes

Coldfacts — Tue, 13 May 2014 13:52:55 GMT

It would be worthwhile if someone would direct the connections of Social Inclusion to the HOF trainer and 5 time Preakness winner views on equipment change for his speedy colt:

BAYERN – Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert has decided to take the blinkers off speedy Bayern for Saturday’s 139th Preakness Stakes.

The son of Offlee Wild has pressed the pace in all four of his career starts. He broke his maiden on Jan. 4 wearing blinkers but didn’t have them on for an allowance victory by 15 lengths on Feb. 13 or his third-place finish in the Arkansas Derby (G1) on April 12. The blinkers were back on for the Derby Trial (G3) on April 26, when he finished first but was disqualified and placed second.

There appears to be plenty of speed in the Preakness: Kentucky Derby winner California Chrome, Pablo Del Monte, Ring Weekend, Social Inclusion and Dynamic Impact have all been prominently placed in their recent races. After the Derby Trial DQ, Baffert said that the colt had to be able to stalk the pace, hence the decision to make the equipment change.

”If we’re going to get him to track horses, track the speed, he needs them off,”

Social Inclusion trains and runs with blinkers. He probably wears them in his stall. This is a one dimensional need to lead colt that has left the gates awkwardly in two of his three starts. Should this recur in the Preakness, he is unlikely to relax for his rider with blinkers on and his race will be over.

If his trainer is unsure how far he wants to go, why not remove the Blinkers and let him relax more and conserve some of his energy. He appears to have stamina limitation at this stage of his career. He needs all the help he can get.

If a trainer that has won the Preakness 5 times can recognize the benefits of removing blinkers from his speedy colt in an expected speed fest race, why shouldn't the connections Social Inclusion take note? One is never too old to learn.

re: Tonalist Can Make a Statement in Peter Pan Stakes

-Keelerman — Sun, 11 May 2014 17:02:38 GMT

Did anyone else notice the strong performances that were turned in over the last few days by a pair of Puerto Rican imports? Tonito M. and Roman Approval, who faced each other on seven occasions while competing at Camarero Race Track in Puerto Rico, both made their American debuts this week, with Tonito M. finishing second in the Lazaro Barrera Stakes (gr. III) and Roman Approval finishing second to Bay of Plenty in that May 7th allowance race at Belmont. It will be interesting to see where they turn up in the future!

re: Tonalist Can Make a Statement in Peter Pan Stakes

Rusty Weisner — Sun, 11 May 2014 13:30:55 GMT

Keelerman,

Wicked Strong had traffic problems in the Derby. He won't have them in the Belmont.

re: Tonalist Can Make a Statement in Peter Pan Stakes

Rusty Weisner — Sun, 11 May 2014 13:29:44 GMT

Last year saw a horse, Freedom Child, win the Peter Pan in the slop and he couldn't compete in the Belmont. This one seems more likely to compete, coming out of that key Gulfstream allowance race.

re: Tonalist Can Make a Statement in Peter Pan Stakes

JayJay — Sun, 11 May 2014 05:10:15 GMT

Keelerman : Yeah, I think his trainer is going to send him to the lead like a rocket ship and try to steal the race. It will all depend on whether the track will be fast or if it favors closers. We anticipated a LOT of speed in the Derby but come race day, only 2 speed horses showed up. I'm guessing that in the Preakness, Social Inclusion will be the only one in the lead up to the half mile...if he's good and fit, he might take it to the top of the stretch. I hope they give him at least a 6F workout next week, at least give him a fighting chance.

Good pick on Tonalist, favorite but he looked good winning and will most likely be the 2nd favorite in the Belmont, and very capable of becoming the spoiler should Chrome win the Preakness.

re: Tonalist Can Make a Statement in Peter Pan Stakes

Coldfacts — Sun, 11 May 2014 01:54:11 GMT

Dynamic Impact: An interesting probable. This big powerful son of Tiznow won his last two starts and gave every indication longer is better. He has tactical speed to say close to the leader and is blessed with stamina. His dam sire Smart Strike has a positive Preakness history. Curlin and Lookin At Lucky who were sired by Smart Strike won the Preakness. The dam of Mine That who finished 2nd in the Preakness was sired by Smart Strike. The Belmont seems ideal for DI but he should be a worthy Preakness opponent for CC and others.

re: Tonalist Can Make a Statement in Peter Pan Stakes

Pedigree Ann — Sat, 10 May 2014 23:21:41 GMT

Bummer. Off track makes the results less useful. Remember last year, Freedom Child romped in the slop and people were all over him as a Belmont candidate? Only black type he earned in his career, retired to stud after 8 starts.

re: Tonalist Can Make a Statement in Peter Pan Stakes

Brontexx — Sat, 10 May 2014 20:10:40 GMT

Keelerman In a match race at 12 panels I would take Wicked Strong over Commanding Curve.At even odds in the Belmont I would take Wicked Strong over Commanding Curve.

re: Tonalist Can Make a Statement in Peter Pan Stakes

Little Bill — Sat, 10 May 2014 18:55:33 GMT

Irish You Well- I think he moves up on the off track, might pass those that don't.

re: Tonalist Can Make a Statement in Peter Pan Stakes

-Keelerman — Sat, 10 May 2014 17:46:43 GMT

Ranagulzion;

Thanks for your thoughts! I have the feeling that we're in for a tremendous renewal of the Preakness Stakes. With California Chrome, Social Inclusion, Bayern, and others ensuring a fast pace, I believe that we'll see a quick final time and very strong speed figures. It should be exciting!

re: Tonalist Can Make a Statement in Peter Pan Stakes

-Keelerman — Sat, 10 May 2014 17:44:17 GMT

Secretariat;

Nice point about the success of the higher-odds Pletcher horses! I really like the fact that John Velazquez has picked up the mount on Matterhorn, and if the colt stays at his 6-1 morning line price, I think that's a more than fair price. Good luck!

re: Tonalist Can Make a Statement in Peter Pan Stakes

-Keelerman — Sat, 10 May 2014 17:40:19 GMT

Brontexx;

Yes, I believe Wicked Strong is being pointed toward the Belmont Stakes. Assuming he runs, what do you think of his chances? My first thought is that his deep-closing style isn't really suited to the Belmont Stakes, but on second thought, he actually wasn't that far behind early on in the Wood Memorial, so perhaps he's versatile enough to race in mid-pack in a race like the Belmont. Any thoughts?

re: Tonalist Can Make a Statement in Peter Pan Stakes

-Keelerman — Sat, 10 May 2014 17:36:49 GMT

Good luck, Little Bill!

re: Tonalist Can Make a Statement in Peter Pan Stakes

-Keelerman — Sat, 10 May 2014 17:35:48 GMT

JayJay;

I have also wondered about Social Inclusion's training pattern, with all of the three- and four-furlong workouts. But at least we know he'll be sharp enough to secure the early lead in the Preakness!

re: Tonalist Can Make a Statement in Peter Pan Stakes

-Keelerman — Sat, 10 May 2014 17:10:24 GMT

Hello everyone! Sorry for my lack of comments as of late -- things have been very busy! But I'm back now, and looking forward to the Peter Pan Stakes at Belmont and the Lazaro Barrera Stakes at Santa Anita Park later this afternoon!

I'm very curious to see how the maiden Irish You Well performs in the Peter Pan. Looking at the Beyer speed figure he received for finishing third in the Illinois Derby last time out, he fits well in this race, and should give a good account of himself. But I do question whether the Beyers assigned to the Illinois Derby runners are accurate, since they seemed a bit high, and I will be using Irish You Well's performance today as a gauge to try and confirm the accuracy of the Illinois Derby numbers.

The reason I'm interested is because Dynamic Impact, the winner of the Illinois Derby, is scheduled to run in the Preakness Stakes next week, and the 102 Beyer he earned for his Illinois Derby victory suggests he could be very competitive. But is the number legitimate? It's an interesting debate! Does anyone else have any thoughts on this?

re: Tonalist Can Make a Statement in Peter Pan Stakes

Little Bill — Sat, 10 May 2014 17:02:38 GMT

Peter Pan bets- Tri box 2 4 6. Super 2w 46 w 46 w all.

Ride on Curlin- I have been wondering all season what all the hoopla is about with this one.

re: Tonalist Can Make a Statement in Peter Pan Stakes

JayJay — Sat, 10 May 2014 16:35:41 GMT

I can't remember if I actually hit Submit or not but I posted a comment about Social Inclusion's training. Since the Wood Memorial, he's had 3 workouts, two at 3Fs and one at 4Fs. We saw how short he was in the Wood, I'm not sure why he's not even getting a 6F workout. It's a week before the Preakness...how does this trainer expect him to have the bottom to go in a longer race. He may be an old school trainer, but it looks more like he's an old school speed horse trainer.

re: Tonalist Can Make a Statement in Peter Pan Stakes

Coldfacts — Sat, 10 May 2014 15:22:32 GMT

Rusty Weisner,

I must concede I have not done any analysis on the also ran's in the Derby. With the slow fractions and the leaders with the exception of CC stopping all over the place, it was not a good representation of America's premiere race for 3YO.

Is CC that good and are the rest that bad? if Honor Code, Top billing, Shared Belief, Hopportunity and Constitution were in the race would they have been toiling behind California Chrome's?

I hope the Preakness provide some answers as to just how good CC is as the Derby did not.

I got off General A Rod when the blinkers were not removed. He secured his most commanding victory without them and has worn them ever since and has become a need to lead horse. If he would lead and win it would be OK but he just battle with no aptitude to pass his opponents.

re: Tonalist Can Make a Statement in Peter Pan Stakes

Brontexx — Sat, 10 May 2014 12:56:31 GMT

Keelerman yes Legend came out of a key race I was following but I didnt bet him.As far as the Belmont Stakes, I dont expect Bay of Plenty to run and Legend just broke his maiden so I wouldnt expect him either.

I expect Wicked Strong to run in the Belmont.

re: Tonalist Can Make a Statement in Peter Pan Stakes

Secreteriat — Sat, 10 May 2014 12:47:26 GMT

I like Tonalist, Metahorn,Fabulous Kid and Commissioer.

T Pletcher has a way with winning with the higher odds horse ala Danza. I will not let him fool me again like he did with Intense Holiday!

re: Tonalist Can Make a Statement in Peter Pan Stakes

Rusty Weisner — Sat, 10 May 2014 12:18:12 GMT

Coldfacts,

ROC seemed to have plenty of energy to me. Did you see the zig zag trip his jockey took him on, particularly the zag coming into the stretch? This is not the type of horse I like to win the Preakness, but his tough 7th place seems good enough to get him on the board in Pimlico.

re: Tonalist Can Make a Statement in Peter Pan Stakes

Pedigree Ann — Sat, 10 May 2014 11:58:33 GMT

Ranagulzion - on what do you base the statement that Social Inclusion is 'extra classy?' He won a fast allowance race at the Speedway East, leading throughout after recording a 24-second first quarter. He ran in the Wood Memorial on/near the lead and ran out of gas on a more demanding surface, beaten by two horses whom California Chrome beat by open daylight in the Derby. How does this make him 'extra classy?'

re: Tonalist Can Make a Statement in Peter Pan Stakes

Coldfacts — Sat, 10 May 2014 11:39:36 GMT

General A Rod's trainer stated that he was full of energy after the Derby. Where was this energy during the running of the race? A similar statement was made by the connections of Ride On Curlin. Energy packed horses were no shows in the Derby and are now expected to show up in the Preakness. Interesting! I guess a different track and shorter distance might just workout for them.

Some also ran's from the Derby have won the Preakness. The most famous has to be Louis Quatorze who finished 16th in the Derby and returned to win the Preakness in a NSR.

Irrespective of who wins I hope the Preakness is a much better race than the Derby.