Striking Similarities Between Bayern and Paynter

re: Striking Similarities Between Bayern and Paynter

JayJay — Fri, 16 May 2014 04:58:35 GMT

Keelerman : Yeah, I like Ground Control, although I picked a horse with a similar name (Ground Transport) who joined the derby trail undefeated but never really made an impact. When I see this name, it reminds me of that horse but I still would use him specially at 10-1. As for Nutello, I haven’t looked but I’ll take your word for it, I like your comments about the horse and specially his 12-1 ML. If I hit the P4 with Nutello in it, you get 25% of the net hehe.

I’m also going to play the GP Rainbow 6 more than the Preakness P4 - 6M pot, if I can get lucky with some big long shots, it’s worth a shot for a dime bet with the mandatory payout.

Rusty : Yeah, 4th is still good even though it’s not officially hitting the board but I get ya. I’m just really disappointed that Samraat wasn’t the horse I thought he was, maybe I’m giving up too early on him but even so, I think I’d rather see him go shorter. It would be really nice if he can win the Jim Dandy or the Haskell with good rest. As for Chrome, I never care for the final time of any race, big race or claiming race. I don’t use it for any of my handicapping because I’m a firm believer of “pace makes the race”. I generally watch how the horse won the race, not necessarily how fast.

Coldfacts : So you picked 5 horses to beat my pick, I think that says a lot about Chrome. The fact that you have to pick 5 horses to tag team him tells me that I’m on the right horse. So you mentioned 5 horses to me in your 3:32 PM post, then you posted to Rusty after stating that Ring Weekend will make the board. Do you have any other horses picked besides those 5 that you forgot to post ? What about Dynamic Impact ? I sure hope you hit the exacta trifecta and superfecta with 50% of the field.

So you use SI to try and soften CC, are you singling KC on top with GAR and ROC on the bottom ? Where does Ring Weekend fit in ? Are you putting SI on top at all ? Just trying to imagine how you’re putting your tickets together, out of curiosity.

re: Striking Similarities Between Bayern and Paynter

Coldfacts — Thu, 15 May 2014 22:36:51 GMT

Keelerman,

I think Social Inclusion will make California Chrome work very hard if he get a good break. Red Bullet was beaten in the Wood by Fusaichi Pegasus. His next start was 5 weeks later and he won the Preakness handily.

Social Inclusion was beaten in the Wood and is making his next start 5 weeks later. If he was racing with blinkers off I would be on him but I think he will be too ranked and use himself too much.

re: Striking Similarities Between Bayern and Paynter

-Keelerman — Thu, 15 May 2014 20:53:47 GMT

It's decision time! Here are my selections for the 139th running of the Preakness Stakes: cs.bloodhorse.com/.../preakness-139-can-chrome-overcome-post-draw.aspx

re: Striking Similarities Between Bayern and Paynter

Rusty Weisner — Thu, 15 May 2014 20:31:53 GMT

Coldfacts,

I just watched those two Kid Cruz races. I try not to be a sucker for this kind of horse, but maybe just this once.

It's interesting, by the way, that they cut the length of the Tesio to 8.5f, while the earlier local prep, the Private Terms, is still 9f.

re: Striking Similarities Between Bayern and Paynter

Rusty Weisner — Thu, 15 May 2014 20:27:11 GMT

The Dixie looks just as wide open as last year, and no less so for being cut back to 8.5f.

re: Striking Similarities Between Bayern and Paynter

-Keelerman — Thu, 15 May 2014 20:21:16 GMT

Rusty Weisner;

I agree -- I would be surprised if there are any Oxbows or Palace Malices hidden in this year's Derby field. As a result, I'm finding it very difficult to formulate any advance opinions of the Belmont Stakes.

I'm hoping the Preakness will provide clues on what to make of the Derby runners that are awaiting the Belmont, but that could be difficult with just three Derby runners entered in the Preakness. In any case, it's going to be an interesting three weeks!

re: Striking Similarities Between Bayern and Paynter

Coldfacts — Thu, 15 May 2014 20:19:06 GMT

Rusty Weisner,

Ring Weekend will make the board.

re: Striking Similarities Between Bayern and Paynter

Rusty Weisner — Thu, 15 May 2014 20:17:07 GMT

Coldfacts,

I'm glad to see there's no mention of Ring Weekend. Your Kid Cruz seems like a much more appealing longshot. I'll take a good look at that one and maybe do something with him.

re: Striking Similarities Between Bayern and Paynter

Rusty Weisner — Thu, 15 May 2014 19:40:30 GMT

Coldfacts,

Let's agree to disagree. The more relevant issue is what to do with the results of this year's Derby. My comment up above was: beats me.

As for our "bet": it's a nice 10-horse field. Ring Weekend finishes in the bottom half, no better than sixth.

re: Striking Similarities Between Bayern and Paynter

Coldfacts — Thu, 15 May 2014 19:32:01 GMT

JayJay,

A CC defeat in the Preakness hinges on two possibilities i.e., Lack of fitness and dislike for the racing surface.

Let's assume he loses by a NS; how will you be able to determine if one of the above was the cause?

I am taking the longshot Kid Cruz. There are five horses from the Mr. Prospector sire line that can form a tag tem on CC. Social Inclusion to keep him honest on the lead. General A Rod to pounce if SI weakens and Ride On Curlin to pick up early in the stretch an KC to catch him on the line.

I sure you like that scenario

re: Striking Similarities Between Bayern and Paynter

Coldfacts — Thu, 15 May 2014 19:17:21 GMT

Rusty Weisner,

There was no mention of a formal complaint. I made a form request to you.

“Just look at who came in 2nd and 3rd in that Derby and what they subsequently”

Golden Soul had done nothing. Revolutionary (3starts -1-1-0) Normandy Invasion (2 starts 1-1-0) Normandy Invasion set a NTR. Will Take Charge and Palace Malice who were unplaced behind Orb have done exceedingly well.

re: Striking Similarities Between Bayern and Paynter

Coldfacts — Thu, 15 May 2014 19:08:52 GMT

Rusty Weisner,

My selection to win Derby 2013 was Revolutionary. Orb was my selection to win FOY and FL Derby.

Just a I suspected there is no evidence to discredit Orb's victory. He was the only horse to finish on the board in all the TC races. He was he best in the TC series. Man up and admit.

re: Striking Similarities Between Bayern and Paynter

Rusty Weisner — Thu, 15 May 2014 18:56:18 GMT

Carlos in Cali,

I don't know about that. He came back to his peak form in a tough Travers, but it didn't seem good enough. Forget Orb. Just look at who came in 2nd and 3rd in that Derby and what they subsequently did and that should tell you something.

re: Striking Similarities Between Bayern and Paynter

Rusty Weisner — Thu, 15 May 2014 18:52:34 GMT

Coldfacts,

What, exactly, is a "formal complaint" on this blog?

I'm not going to rehash this; you're wrong. I don't recall you making any good picks in last year's TC races, even after a Derby that should have taught you something.

Last year's Derby was a big carcass of pace casualties and pace beneficiaries, which made for nice odds on the winners of the subsequent two races.

Keelerman,

To change the subject back to the present, I don't see anything of the kind coming out of this year's Derby. Any "pace casualty", like Uncle Sigh, was just a weak horse to begin with, while the pace was not so languid that a closer couldn't close; witness the other "CC"; you asked whether Intense Holiday was maybe too close to the pace -- Meh. What pace? He seems to have peaked too early or to have some problem. No excuses. The Derby didn't tell me anything I didn't already know, i.e., CC was the best horse. I don't see any smart angles after this one. The only angle I can see on the horizon is maybe making excuses for Wicked Strong and giving him a chance to beat CC in the Belmont (and "the other CC" -- though I actually think WS will be favored over "the other CC"); maybe Tonalist will be an option, too.

re: Striking Similarities Between Bayern and Paynter

Carlos in Cali — Thu, 15 May 2014 18:35:36 GMT

This is the first time I've ever agreed with Coldfacts. He's right about Orb: he was the best horse in the Derby and the off-track didn't move him up either. Him repeatedly winning @ GP's highway proved he was legit- something just wasn't right w/him after the Derby though,hence his quick yank to the breeding shed.

re: Striking Similarities Between Bayern and Paynter

Carlos in Cali — Thu, 15 May 2014 18:23:30 GMT

California Chrome is in a different league. Again he spurts-away, romps and wins with something left! There's nobody in the field that can run with him down the stretch...nobody! Keep trying to beat him to your dismay.

Sorry Ranagulzion, This isn't Gulfstream Park and the year's most over-hyped 3yo won't get an easy lead. Just like your LDS "theory" has been whole-heartedly and thoroughly debunked, your overly excited and easily influenced persona will take a beating after the false wonder horse gets his head handed to him on Saturday. Once again, your enthusiasm is geared toward the wrong horse...

sceptre, your futile attempt at relegating CC to also-ran status is laughable.How many "other" horses will you say are better than California Chrome before you wave the white flag and see the light!

re: Striking Similarities Between Bayern and Paynter

JerseyBoy — Thu, 15 May 2014 18:08:26 GMT

Keelerman;

It should be quite a race.

re: Striking Similarities Between Bayern and Paynter

Rusty Weisner — Thu, 15 May 2014 17:49:13 GMT

Kevin,

I have it on very good authority that Social Inclusion is going to kill 'em.

re: Striking Similarities Between Bayern and Paynter

-Keelerman — Thu, 15 May 2014 17:41:14 GMT

JerseyBoy;

That sounds terrific! I've been eagerly waiting for Verrazano's European debut, and to seen him entered against Olympic Glory -- well, that should be quite a race!

re: Striking Similarities Between Bayern and Paynter

JerseyBoy — Thu, 15 May 2014 17:25:55 GMT

Headliner/appetizer!

Verrazano v Olympic Glory at Newbury on Saturday

re: Striking Similarities Between Bayern and Paynter

-Keelerman — Thu, 15 May 2014 17:14:08 GMT

Derbygal;

Thanks for sharing the post positions and morning line odds! I'm surprised to see Social Inclusion as a 5-1 shot -- I would have guessed that he would be a bit higher. And I'm really surprised that none of the other horses are lower than 10-1. Very interesting!

re: Striking Similarities Between Bayern and Paynter

Kevin — Thu, 15 May 2014 17:10:44 GMT

Ziggy the Great in Race 4 at Belmont today.

Playing a Preakness Pick 4, and hoping Social inclusion beats Chrome.

re: Striking Similarities Between Bayern and Paynter

-Keelerman — Thu, 15 May 2014 17:05:05 GMT

JayJay;

Saturday's pick four at Pimlico looks like a tough one, with many logical contenders to choose from in each of the first three races, but I do like the look of 12-1 shot Nutello in the Dixie Stakes. After making thirteen starts in France -- where he was good enough to finish third in a group I -- Nutello came to the U.S. and finished third in the Sword Dancer Invitational (gr. I) at Saratoga, after which he was transferred to the barn of Graham Motion. A pair of sub-par efforts followed, but after being given a break, Nutello returned on April 19th to finish a good third in the one-mile Henry S. Clark Stakes on the turf at Pimlico, beaten just a half-length.

I believe that with the benefit of a recent race, Nutello will be much sharper on Friday than he was last month, and he should be able to work out a nice ground-saving trip from post two. Furthermore, the distance of the Dixie seems to be ideal, and he demonstrated in France that he can handle moderately wet ground, so the impending rains at Pimlico shouldn't affect his chances.

Another horse I like in the pick four is Ground Control, assuming that he does run in the Sir Barton Stakes and not in one of the earlier undercard races. His trainer, Tony Dutrow, seems to think highly of him, and I like his morning line price of 10-1, although I would be a bit surprised if he stays at those odds. In a wide-open race, he seems to have as good a chance as any.

re: Striking Similarities Between Bayern and Paynter

Coldfacts — Thu, 15 May 2014 16:40:34 GMT

Rusty Weisner

“he had dramatic advantages of pace and surface in the Derby”

I am formally requesting that you to provide the evidence that supports your claim that the pace and surface conditions favored Orb in the 2013 Derby. How is it possible for the pace and surface conditions to favored one horse in a field of 19? Are you remotely aware that Orb was the favorite in the race?

Like California Chrome he entered the Derby with the best record and 4 consecutive victories. The horse with the best record and credentials going in, won the race. You are doing Orb a disservice by suggesting pace and track condition contributed to his victory.

In the absence of any evidence your claim is false.

re: Striking Similarities Between Bayern and Paynter

Coldfacts — Thu, 15 May 2014 16:17:26 GMT

The grandsons of Mr. Prospector have to date sired 13 horses that have won 18 Triple Crown races. Of the 18 TC victories, 5 were recorded in the Preakness. Unbridled, Thunder Gulch, Street Cry, Lemon Drop Kid Lookin At Lucky and Curlin are amongst Mr. P's best grandsons.

Lookin At Lucky’s first crop is yet to race. Unbridled, Thunder Gulch, Street Cry and Curlin have sired at least one horse that has won a TC race. Lemon Drop Kid who 18 years old is yet to sire a winner of the TC race.

Based on his pedigree he should have be a major influence on the TC trail annually. He was sire by the great Kingmambo and out of a Seattle Slew mare. He won the Belmont, Travers Whitney, Woodward, Suburban and Brooklyn H. He has sired some nice horses but has not live up to expectation.

Lemon Drop Kid will be represented by Kid Cruz in the Preakness. Not very often is a Lemon Drop Kid progeny seen in a TC race. Base on speed figures KC does not belong in the same field with many of his opponents. Whereas his opponents might be faster he has an abundance of stamina that fuels his ferocious closing kick. Could this be the year where the well-bred Lemon Drop Kid joins the other grandsons of Mr. P with a TC victory?

Only The Derby carryovers have raced beyond 9F. All the new shooters have been seen fully extended at 9F. Of the new shooter, Kid Cruz is the one that appeared to be the strongest in the closing furlong of a 9F race. Of Derby carryovers General A Rod and Ride On Curlin failed to win at 9F although they ran well. The extra 1/2F of the Preakness should therefore favor Kid Cruz. California Chrome won the 9F SA Derby & KD geared down and stands supreme in the field.

Kid Cruz has what might prove to be an insignificant advantage. He won the Federico Tesio at Pimlico in his last start making him the only horse in the field with a start on the track. He was much closer to the leaders in the Tesio as compared to the 25L off the pace he was in the Private Term. He will be required to be even closer in the Preakness as the fractions are expected to be fast. He will be the last to arrive on the scene and I expect him to get there in time as the extra 1/2F is firmly in his favor.