Preakness 139: Can 'Chrome Overcome Post Draw?

re: Preakness 139: Can 'Chrome Overcome Post Draw?

Plod Boy Phil — Fri, 23 May 2014 14:13:17 GMT

Ann -

I'm talking about racing hard for 12f, not eating breakfast, bouncing around shed row, or galloping.

Good luck.

re: Preakness 139: Can 'Chrome Overcome Post Draw?

Brontexx — Thu, 22 May 2014 17:42:30 GMT

Can you identify a horse that has been exactly like any of the greats of the past? What’s the relevance of the statement if it is stating the obvious? How many of the past greats could be similarly classified?

In 2015 there will be another dominant 3YO on whom the same accolades will be bestowed. How CC rank with past KD & Preakness winners would be a better evaluation as opposed to his physical and mental attributes as all the past greats possessed them in differing degrees.

The gist for you non active out of shape contributors is that great athletes are so great because of the intangibles that they have, not physical attributes I hope that clears it up without more reason to continue to argue something that you cant overcome someone elses opinion.

re: Preakness 139: Can 'Chrome Overcome Post Draw?

Coldfacts — Thu, 22 May 2014 16:28:59 GMT

“If they go wild in mating to LP there is bound to be some good offspring but NEVER quite the same as the ORIGINAL.”

Every foal that is born is an original. It’s therefore obvious that no likely duplication will ever occur. Whereas the performances of two horses can be compared, they will always remain different equines.

“CC is a complete package physically, mentally and intangilbly, and there will NEVER be another EXACTLY like him.”

re: Preakness 139: Can 'Chrome Overcome Post Draw?

derbygal — Thu, 22 May 2014 16:04:48 GMT

From DRF;

Latest probable field for Belmont Stakes

HORSE TRAINER JOCKEY LAST RACE, FINISH

California Chrome Art Sherman Victor Espinoza Preakness, 1st

Candy Boy John Sadler Gary Stevens Ky Derby, 13th

Commanding Curve Dallas Stewart Shaun Bridgmohan Ky Derby, 2nd

Commissioner Todd Pletcher Javier Castellano Peter Pan, 2nd

Intense Holiday Todd Pletcher undecided Ky Derby, 12th

Kid Cruz Linda Rice undecided Preakness, 8th

Matuszak Bill Mott Mike Smith Tesio, 2nd

Ride On Curlin Billy Gowan John Velazquez Preakness, 2nd

Ring Weekend Graham Motion Alan Garcia Preakness, 5th

Samraat Rick Violette Jose Ortiz Ky Derby, 5th

Social Inclusion Manny Azpurua undecided Preakness, 3rd

Tonalist Christophe Clement Joel Rosario Peter Pan, 1st

Wicked Strong Jimmy Jerkens Rajiv Maragh Ky Derby, 4th

re: Preakness 139: Can 'Chrome Overcome Post Draw?

Coldfacts — Thu, 22 May 2014 15:50:18 GMT

Rusty Weisner,

“In this century no horse that has contested and lost the first two legs has won the Belmont”

Relevance?

In this century no horse that has won the first two legs of the TC has won the Belmont. The historic negative that impacts ROC also impacts CC.

I the last 30 renewals of the Belmont, only two have been won by a Derby winner. Subject to correction, during this same period, two horses that contested and lost the first two, legs of the TC have won the Belmont two times as well i.e., Easy Goer and Victory Gallop.

While the historic negatives relating to ROC and CC might be equal, ROC has a better chance of winning. The number of horses falling in to his category that have contested the Belmont is significantly less than Derby winners that have.

re: Preakness 139: Can 'Chrome Overcome Post Draw?

Secreteriat — Thu, 22 May 2014 15:21:25 GMT

Victor will work CC on May 31,

Would love to see him ride a 1 1/2 race while his there.

Sherman said that will be all he needs and is confident CC will get the distance.

re: Preakness 139: Can 'Chrome Overcome Post Draw?

Pedigree Ann — Thu, 22 May 2014 13:35:50 GMT

Phil -

Yet the Blood-Horse writers quote Alan Sherman as saying yesterday, "It's amazing how quick[ly] this horse is bouncing back off these big races he's running. He was dragging me around the shed row, he dragged Willie around the track today. He was really feeling good."

and

"He's usually (strong on the bit) the first day back (on the track) after a race, but today he was much (stronger) than normal," said Delgado of his early impression.

The DRF writers seem to have been against California Chrome from the start of the classic series, ridiculing his pedigree and his training at a formerly QH track (it's expanding to become a full mile oval and has TB-only dates coming up). Sure, a horse will be tired the first day or so after a race, just like a human elite athlete is. But they come out of it quickly because they are fit.

re: Preakness 139: Can 'Chrome Overcome Post Draw?

JayJay — Thu, 22 May 2014 04:40:24 GMT

Secreteriat : With regards to your thoughts that Victor should ride at Belmont for a week, I have to disagree. I say that because just like Chrome, Victor needs to stay healthy. It would be a shame if Victor goes to Belmont to get used to the track and end up getting hurt trying to familiarize himself with the track. I don't know if Chrome will respond to just any jockey. Victor has ridden at the track and he just needs to familiarize himself again by riding in the earlier races of the day (or maybe even one day earlier). At this point, I don't think they need to change any of their routine, everything has worked well so far and I don't think they need to do anything to make things any better. I just read the article about Chrome's first trip around the track and saw the video and he looked good.

Imma go watch some Samraat races now...

re: Preakness 139: Can 'Chrome Overcome Post Draw?

Little Bill — Thu, 22 May 2014 03:03:40 GMT

If your looking for a challenge Saturday, find the winner of the Hanshin Cup, AP 9.

re: Preakness 139: Can 'Chrome Overcome Post Draw?

Brontexx — Wed, 21 May 2014 21:39:51 GMT

With all the Tapits that were involved in the TC this year one of them is bound to at least hit the board, and if its Tonalist at 12 furlongs, Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC will be very happy,plus all the punters that backed any of them will say I told you so.BTW on the same note many out there are planning on mating Lucky Pulpit with blue blooded mares and I would think the price has gone up.

IMO lightning only strikes once, and CC is a complete package physically,mentally and intangilbly, and there will NEVER be another EXACTLY like him.If they go wild in mating to LP there is bound to be some good offspring but NEVER quite the same as the ORIGINAL.

re: Preakness 139: Can 'Chrome Overcome Post Draw?

Secreteriat — Wed, 21 May 2014 20:35:55 GMT

Keelerman,

I had the same reservations about Tonalist being a Tapit however Untappit and Tapiture both look like they could get more distance.

What I like about Tonalist besides my namesake he is by Pleasant Colony on the dam side who I saw win the Belmont so he is my longshot play in all positions. I mad enough money to use him in the top 3 places with the horses I mentioned previously and hope my luck extends to Belmont Day.

re: Preakness 139: Can 'Chrome Overcome Post Draw?

-Keelerman — Wed, 21 May 2014 19:08:28 GMT

Mexikoma, who finished third behind Constitution and Tonalist in a Gulfstream allowance race earlier this year, is scheduled to return to the races on Friday in an allowance race at Pimlico: www.equibase.com/.../PIM052314USA-EQB.html

re: Preakness 139: Can 'Chrome Overcome Post Draw?

Plod Boy Phil — Wed, 21 May 2014 16:22:43 GMT

First, allow me to pre-empt any negativism that may be perceived from this post by stating that I understand the excitement fans have about this exceptional horse. However, I think it wise to both read, and to take a tighter hold of, the headline from the DRF: "Chrome tired but healthy."

As I see it, three weeks is no way near enough time to get 'un-tired'.

re: Preakness 139: Can 'Chrome Overcome Post Draw?

Secreteriat — Wed, 21 May 2014 15:49:40 GMT

If I was Espinoza I would go to Belmont the week before and ride every race to get comfortable with the track.

There is none other like Belmont.

He is riding a Freak and all other Jocks will try to take away his edge. He needs to ride another "brilliant race" like he did in the Preakness and get himself in the clear to do what he needs to do. The sandy bit does not bother me. This horse can run on Broadway and win!

re: Preakness 139: Can 'Chrome Overcome Post Draw?

Rusty Weisner — Wed, 21 May 2014 15:42:53 GMT

What's nice, if you like Wicked Strong, is that the money will be split up pretty evenly among him, "the other CC" and ROC, plus Tonalist will be a likely not too-distant fifth favorite.

re: Preakness 139: Can 'Chrome Overcome Post Draw?

JayJay — Wed, 21 May 2014 15:03:02 GMT

Rusty : You're right, I forgot he finished 4th in the Derby. For some reason I keep mixing him up with Wildcat Red. There's no way he'll be the 2nd favorite, not with Tonalist and Commissioner there....Samraat might take more money than him actually.

I'm tossing Samraat in this race, I feel like it's a bad move but I can't see him lasting past 9Fs...but then again, if no one else runs, he can stay for 4th.

re: Preakness 139: Can 'Chrome Overcome Post Draw?

JJs Rocket — Wed, 21 May 2014 14:53:56 GMT

Early thoughts are I will be using Wicked Strong a lot with CC. Also will use the likely other ones in Commanding Curve, ROC and will be looking into a couple of longer shots like Samraat ( Indian Charlie on dam side concerns me ) but the horse runs his guts out every time. Also will look at Intense Holiday but only if he gets Mike back on him. I think he gets the best out of him and he will be overlooked. SI will run in my opinion with a new jockey, he might also need a new trainer - just saying...

After the field firms up so we get a better picture of the pace maybe we can narrow it down some. Still have a long time to figure out this puzzle.. Good luck to everyone...

re: Preakness 139: Can 'Chrome Overcome Post Draw?

Brontexx — Wed, 21 May 2014 12:47:20 GMT

Too early to project odds because there could be additions and subtractions to the field.If SI dosent go and there isnt a lot of speed on paper, I wouldn't be surprised if another colt takes the initiative and goes to the front, the two that come to mind are Tonalist in a repeat of his last and ROC who has run close up in the past.

On the same note if there is no speed on paper there might be one or more speedy colts added to the field,Im sure the list of nominations to the Belmont Stakes is long.

re: Preakness 139: Can 'Chrome Overcome Post Draw?

Secreteriat — Wed, 21 May 2014 12:42:01 GMT

Pedigree Ann

Thank you for the Peter Pan info. You are right Freedom Child won on the slop last year and finished 2nd to last in last year's Belmont. I will only use them on the bottom of the Tri and Super. I think Intense Holiday is a miler and will be used sort of a rabbit, I/E one more horse CC have to worry about and will quit after a mile. I think R O C will be 2nd choice. I like Rusty's approach of using horses that already run at Belmont mainly Wicked Strong/ Commisioner/Samrat/Tonalist underneath. I think Wicked Strong has the best chance of beating CC and he will be the only I will use as my hedge on top. Ann do you thing Samrat can get the distance?

re: Preakness 139: Can 'Chrome Overcome Post Draw?

Rusty Weisner — Wed, 21 May 2014 12:19:50 GMT

Sam Santschi,

That was a good call on Danza.

JayJay,

That's an interesting point on Ring Weekend.

Keelerman,

I'm going to go against Tonalist (and Commissioner), too. I think CC is 4-5 and Wicked Strong 4-1, believe it or not. If he's better than that I'll be very happy.

re: Preakness 139: Can 'Chrome Overcome Post Draw?

Rusty Weisner — Wed, 21 May 2014 12:09:17 GMT

JayJay,

I can't get over how you lucked into it with the tickets this year. See my note about the undercard and take a look at the NYRA website. It is insane. Early in the day the paddock shouldn't be crazy packed and you'll see a lot of star horses. I hope you get good weather.

re: Preakness 139: Can 'Chrome Overcome Post Draw?

Rusty Weisner — Wed, 21 May 2014 12:00:35 GMT

JayJay,

I often joke about how I should do the ML for the major tracks. I have the dubious distinction of usually thinking just like the betting crowd.

No way Wicked Strong is 12-1. In fact, I think it's possible he'll be the second favorite over Commanding Curve. If he's 12-1 I'm betting him with two fists.

Pedigree Ann,

I thought that about the Peter Pan, too -- thanks for chasing that down and putting some spine into me and my stand against certain horses.

re: Preakness 139: Can 'Chrome Overcome Post Draw?

Pedigree Ann — Wed, 21 May 2014 11:11:13 GMT

Somehow, my most recent post has not shown up. The gist was that no horse who has finished first or second in the Peter Pan had won the Belmont in the last 10 years. Two third-place runners in the Belmonts have come out of the Peter Pan, Ready's Echo and Sunriver. The last time a Belmont winner came out of the Peter Pan was 1999, when Lemon Drop Kid ran third in the PP beforehand. First and second-place runners have done nada. You can look it up.

With the way that trainers train (and don't race) these days, the Peter Pan has become irrelevant, unless you are betting trifectas or supers.

P.S. Commissioner may have a good pedigree for a distance of ground, but his class is suspect. He was beaten off by Chitu and Midnight Hawk at El Paso at 9f, a distance at which one might have expected some life and which doesn't suit the first two well.

re: Preakness 139: Can 'Chrome Overcome Post Draw?

JayJay — Wed, 21 May 2014 04:04:50 GMT

Secreteriat : Thanks, I hope he does too! I can't even imagine how crazy the crowd will be. I'll be taking videos of people's reaction throughout the race and will watch the replay. I don't know if I'll be able to actually watch the live race...I'll be freakin' out.

Rusty : Thanks, I'll check out taking the train as another option although I'm pretty much set with taking the cab. I will definitely check out the paddock as well as the whole track on Friday.

Keelerman : Thanks! I'll try my best to have fun hehe. Regarding your question, I think Tonalist will be ML at 9/2 and Commissioner at 8-1. After that, it's all probably 15-1 and up. Wicked Strong might be 12-1 just cause he's probably who the people will bet the most out of all the longshots.

I'm looking at Tonalist, Commissioner and Intense Holiday who should be at 15-1 and up. I'm curious who's riding Intense Holiday who's the one longshot that I'm really intrigued in this race. He is the forgotten horse and he does have a little bit of tactical speed. I see him midpack but maybe about 6 or 7 lengths at the half mile. If he gets Bejarano, he could be the threat. Ring Weekend looks like the lone speed and his connections also has a Commanding Curve which makes me believe they might use him as a rabbit for Commanding Curve. Still 2 1/2 weeks....

re: Preakness 139: Can 'Chrome Overcome Post Draw?

-Keelerman — Wed, 21 May 2014 02:45:53 GMT

With Danza now out of the Belmont, and with Social Inclusion only a 50-50 possibility, it's starting to look like this Belmont may not have a lot of early pace -- it could very well end up like 2010, 2011, and 2012, with a 1:14-and-change six-furlong fraction. However, as Brontexx mentioned, the presence of a horse with a shot at winning the Triple Crown could ensure at least a moderately fast early tempo, since it's possible that some of the other jockeys could get aggressive in challenging California Chrome from the outset. I will be very interested to see if Ride On Curlin races closer to the pace than usual in the Belmont -- remember, he has flashed tremendous early speed at various points in his career, and his versatility could prove useful in adapting to whatever pace scenario presents itself. If the pace is slow, he could be right near the lead; if it's fast, he could come from a few lengths back.

Two horses that I have mixed feelings about are Tonalist and Candy Boy. The former was certainly impressive winning the Peter Pan Stakes, but that was in the slop, and he's a son of Tapit, which leaves me wondering if twelve furlongs is really what he wants. In ways, he's starting to remind me of Charitable Man.

I really liked Candy Boy in the Kentucky Derby, and thought he lost all chance on the first turn when he clipped heels. However, he really didn't do much running after that, and like Tonalist, I'm not sure twelve furlongs is ideal for him. But at least we know he has enough tactical speed to secure good position in the Belmont, and -- assuming he draws a decent post position -- trip shouldn't prove much of an issue.

Rusty Weisner;

Nope, I haven't made it to a Triple Crown race yet, but it's on my to-do list! :)

JayJay;

I hope you have a great time at the Belmont! We're overdue for a Triple Crown winner, and maybe this will be the year!

Secreteriat;

Great "food for thought" on winning the Belmont Stakes! One trend I have noticed is that many of the recent Belmont winners had never won a stakes race prior to their victory in the "Test of Champions." Examples include Jazil (2006), Da' Tara (2008), Summer Bird (2009), Drosselmeyer (2010), Ruler On Ice (2011), and Palace Malice (2013).

On a side note, I could be wrong, but it sounded to me as if Joel Rosario had already committed to ride Tonalist in the Belmont before he rode Ride On Curlin in the Preakness, so he may not have had a choice of mounts.

Now for an open question to all -- who do you think will be the second and third wagering choices in the Belmont Stakes? And what will their odds be?