Looking for Longshots on Memorial Day Weekend

re: Looking for Longshots on Memorial Day Weekend

Coldfacts — Tue, 03 Jun 2014 02:15:53 GMT

Brontexx,

I had to revisit the definition of ‘Plodder’ as I was sure my definition did not match yours. A fairly comprehensive definition is listed below:

“To walk heavily or move laboriously; trudge: to plod under the weight of a burden. 2. To proceed in a tediously slow manner”

Firstly, I revisited CC2’s 2nd start where he was beaten by a NK in a mile race completed in 1:36.89. He was no further than 2 to 3 lengths off fraction of 22.71, 46.19 and 1:11.22. He was in the lead when 7F was completed in 1:23.79 and got caught close home. A plodder than can run 7F in 1:23.79 and a mile in 1:36.89 I have never seen.

Secondly, I revisited CC2’s 3rd place finish in the LA Derby. He was pinched back at the start and raced in last position for the 4F. He made a big mid race move to get into a challenging position and ran into problems again. He was sandwiched between horse and blocked momentarily. After securing room he rallied to fall short of catching Intense Holiday for second.

Thirdly, I revisited CC2’s 2nd place finish in the KD. He raced just ahead last place horse Ride On Curlin. He made a big mid race move leaving the Preakness runner-up for dead. He was taken wide for his stretch run and had to check off a horse for clear passage. He closed willingly to secure second. By my estimation he ran about 10 1/4F based on his draw and trip.

CC2 has not move laboriously or proceeded in a tediously slow manner in any of his races. In fact he has accelerated impressively in his last two starts. I firmly believe he will finish ahead of CC1 in the Belmont.

re: Looking for Longshots on Memorial Day Weekend

JayJay — Fri, 30 May 2014 04:11:25 GMT

I just saw the 10 definite starters for the Belmont and I see Samraat and Tonalist setting the pace. I’m starting to cool off of Tonalist, I don't know how far he can go with having an additional 9lbs and going much longer and it’s very possible, the sloppy track helped him a lot in the Peter Pan, still I think he can hold the closers for a piece of the superfecta specially if it’s sloppy.

California Chrome, Commanding Curve, Commissioner, Matterhorn, Matuszak, Medal Count, Ride On Curlin, Samraat, Tonalist, and Wicked Strong

re: Looking for Longshots on Memorial Day Weekend

Brontexx — Thu, 29 May 2014 22:13:44 GMT

Rusty Weisner Im glad you agree about the name change.I think the whole speil about naming a service locksmith and a blog unlocking winners is to try to sell the fact that there are codes that need to be deciphered in the past performances and the fallacy that locksmith held the key to unlocking these codes.It is an implication that in a way PPs are encrypted and you have to be one of the chosen few that know the secrets.Its a bunch of malarkey if you ask me.

re: Looking for Longshots on Memorial Day Weekend

-Keelerman — Thu, 29 May 2014 21:20:20 GMT

It looks like there's a nice set of races scheduled for Saturday at Penn National! Here's the link to my new blog post analyzing the Mountainview Handicap and Penn Mile Stakes: cs.bloodhorse.com/.../passing-some-time-at-penn-national.aspx

re: Looking for Longshots on Memorial Day Weekend

Rusty Weisner — Thu, 29 May 2014 17:55:41 GMT

I agree about changing the name of the blog. That was what Pete Denk called it (he actually had a handicapping product called "The Locksmith"). And he never picked any winners.

re: Looking for Longshots on Memorial Day Weekend

Rusty Weisner — Thu, 29 May 2014 17:50:46 GMT

Coldfacts,

I really like your notation, "CC2", by the way.

I think he had a very easy trip and a really, really nice ride (especially when you compare to ROC's really bad ride). He didn't run wide the whole race, and who cares if he came 8 wide when what was more important was that he maintained his his momentum. CC had a better trip, but he will always have a better trip unless he has a very bad break because he's better and faster and can be put wherever his jockey wants him. I think CC2 will run well in the Belmont but will be late.

re: Looking for Longshots on Memorial Day Weekend

Coldfacts — Thu, 29 May 2014 17:47:18 GMT

Brontexx,

Well stated! Mine That Bird’s rider eased him long before the line and he won by the biggest margin the last 40yrs. If MTB had run another 2F he would have won by a furlong. He was defeated in the Belmont by a colt that had only a MSW victory to his credit. You know the ‘Other Bird.’ Different track, distance and fresher horses can make significant difference.

Golden Soul was sired by a turf horse and CD is kind to turf type. To compare the two colts is unrealistic.

By my estimation CC2 covers 10 1/4F because of his draw and trip. It was his 3rd start of he year. His excited the Derby with a Beyer higher than the one he entered with, while CC1 exited with one lower.

Palace Malice 12th in the Derby won the Belmont with only a MSW victory in the win column. Summer Bird 6th in the Derby won the Belmont with only a MSW victory in the win column. Ruler On Ice did not contest the first two legs of the TC. He won the Belmont with only a MSW victory in the win column. CC2 2nd in the Derby …………………………………………. you can fill in the blanks as its possible as it has happened 3 times before. You never know!

Peace!

re: Looking for Longshots on Memorial Day Weekend

Brontexx — Thu, 29 May 2014 16:01:53 GMT

RE CC2 If he comes in the money or wins he will be unlocking(winners)CASH FLOW for Stewart and West Point.

Ditto for any colt that is the only one that finishes ahead of CC1.Why do you think there are so many entrants,for example even if they kept running another furlong or two in the KD CC2 dosent get by CC1 he wasnt even asked to run in the KD ifhe would have been asked the margin of victory over CC2 would have been much greater and only colts behind them that were blocked in the stretch would have had a chance to come close to CC in the KD.You gotta know how to watch the race and not get caught up in the circumstances of that particular race because if you watched the same 2014 KD as I did CC won easily even though ON PAPER THE MARGIN WAS LESS THAN TWO LENGTHS.

Im not buying into the notion that the pace will be slow in the Belmont because of the distance of the race being 12 furlongs.To beat CC you gotta make him run faster than he wants to for the first mile, otherwise thats where he excelerates and opens up the lead.

On the same note if I was Dallas Stewart talking to prospective clients I would talk about my last two KDs,but if CC2 fails like his colt last year, his credibility is dimimished.

re: Looking for Longshots on Memorial Day Weekend

Coldfacts — Thu, 29 May 2014 14:35:50 GMT

JJs Rocket,

CC2 got to the rails gradually and consequently the 49 you cited would have been less for the distance if he had been drawn on inside. He was guided away from the rails for his mid race more and again lost ground to the leaders. He lost further ground at the top of the stretch and was full of run in the end. The average closing 2F split for the Derby is 25 and a bit so his final 2F split should not be considered slow under the circumstances he faced.

The times you cited were influenced by of his draw and the size of the field. They are not are a reflection of his lack of tactical speed.

I am not fearful of CC1’s speed over 12F. CC2 will be taking dead aim after 10F and I believe has the good to out run him to the line. There is no way MSW winner should close from the back of the field and get that close loosing so much ground.

re: Looking for Longshots on Memorial Day Weekend

Little Bill — Thu, 29 May 2014 13:55:57 GMT

Sat. Penn race 2- So many with speed, so few spots in front.

I'll play the two that have won from the back. 9 Sensible Lady and 11 Great Attack.

re: Looking for Longshots on Memorial Day Weekend

JJs Rocket — Thu, 29 May 2014 12:59:25 GMT

Coldfacts

In all due respect CC2 was never 20 lengths back. The farthest he was back at any call was 12 lengths. CC2 times were 49 and 2 for the half, 113 for the 3/4ths, 138 and 4 for the mile and 204 at the wire. He made a powerful move from the half to the 3/4 pole in 23 and 3/5ths. Then rested for a 25 and 4/5ths and came home in 25 and 1/5th. This middle move will put him in good position at the corner. The question is the pace and how much everyone else will have left.

Everyone kind of lost ground to CC between the 3/4 pole and the mile in the derby. That's where CC put them away. That burst and his ability to place himself towards the front is what makes him so dangerous.

re: Looking for Longshots on Memorial Day Weekend

Coldfacts — Thu, 29 May 2014 11:20:58 GMT

JayJay,

CC2 has improved in every race since he made his 3YO debut. This is an obvious trend. The Derby was by far his most demanding race and I believe it has moved his forwards in a significant way. The improvements he showed between the LA Derby and The KD represents the biggest improvement by any 3YO.

By my estimation he covered 10 1/4F in the Derby and was still running at the end. With 4 weeks to recover and re-energize I expected him improve further. In a smaller field and with the extended distance, he is expected to be closer to the pace with less work to get to the leaders.

I paid close attention to both the strides of CC1 and CC2 in the final furlong of the Derby and both horses were powerful. The difference is, CC1 had a perfect trip, whereas CC2 took the overland route and closing from 20L back. No ordinary horse is capable of same.

His trainer has declared his sound, fit and well and based on the video I saw with him, he appears to be sharp as a razor.

re: Looking for Longshots on Memorial Day Weekend

Coldfacts — Thu, 29 May 2014 11:03:49 GMT

JJs Rocket,

Matuszak has been puzzling to me ever since he was picked up on my radar. His sire Bernardini had great tactical speed and his dam sire Mr. Prospector was every fast and injected a lot speed in his tail descendants. Based on the aforementioned, Matuszak should have tactical speed. However, he spends the earlier parts of his races competing with the emergency vehicle.

Did his last work indicate that the problem/s that have caused his lack of early speed has/have been identified and fixed? He is certainly not running to his pedigree and Bill Mott is certainly overdue for to win a TC race. I do not believe Mr. Mott would expose this colt needlessly.

Horses sired by tail descendant of Mr. Prospector have won 14 of the last 20 renewals of the Belmont. Mr. Prospector sired Belmont winner Conquistador Cielo and I see no reason why one of his mares cannot produce a Belmont winner. Interesting entry!

re: Looking for Longshots on Memorial Day Weekend

Coldfacts — Thu, 29 May 2014 10:48:09 GMT

JJs Rocket,

Most of the horses CC2 finished ahead of entered the Derby with much higher Beyers than he was ever assigned. However, he was one of 3 horses that exited with higher Beyers signaling he ran an improved race over his LA Derby effort.

Commanding Curve and ROC were at the back of the Derby field. ROC has more pace than CC2 as he won at 5.5F in a NTR. ROC also closed like a runaway train in the Champagne completed in 1:35 and a bit. Despite this fact, when CC2 made his mid race more he left ROC for dead.

He also ran by some very fast horses. The mid race moves he made must have been faster than 25 splits. If 2:03.66 is divided by 5 the result id 24.73 If CC2 was splitting 25s for the Derby distance he could not have finished that close to CC1. In fact, he must have been running faster spits than 24.73 as he cover 10 1/4F.

Do not discount the fact that the Derby could have moved him forward as he has improved in every race since his 3YO debut. CC2 has been unfortunate in his last 2 races. In the LA Derby he was pinched back and in the KD he got an unfavorable draw. We therefore have not seen whether he can sit close to the pace. I happen to think he can based on his 2nd start.

In his 2nd start he was beaten by a NK in a mile race completed in 1:36.89. He was no further than 2 to 3 lengths off fraction of 22.71, 46.19 and 1:11.22. He was in the lead when 7F was completed in 1:23.79 and got caught close home. CC2 appears to be a genuine colt who must be bursting at the seams to run at this time.

I really believe this ridgling can win the Belmont.

re: Looking for Longshots on Memorial Day Weekend

JJs Rocket — Thu, 29 May 2014 03:43:15 GMT

Coldfacts

I kind of agree with you about Commanding Curve as being a pretty good horse. He is a lot better dirt horse than Golden Soul is. On the negative the Belmont doesn't exactly set up too well for his running style. He is basically a 25 second quarter horse all the way around. So for him to win the horse up front will have to slow down to a 26 plus to a 27 second final quarter. He will probably run a 2 minute 30 second time which might not be good enough to win. I made good money in the derby on him and will certainly be using him underneath. The LaDerby race is the one that convinced me on him. He had so much trouble in that race.

If I was pushed I would probably think if CC gets beat it will be either ROC or Wicked Strong. The 1 mile workout and gallop out looked pretty good to me. Commanding Curve had a little home field advantage in Kentucky and WS probably has a little in Belmont.

Keelerman stated it nicely about the urging that Matuszak needed in his latest workout. His workmate was under tight wraps not to leave him. Does anyone know why he stuggled so much compared to his previous two workouts? I don't get it...

re: Looking for Longshots on Memorial Day Weekend

JayJay — Thu, 29 May 2014 03:34:09 GMT

Coldfacts : Curve had 4 weeks rest from the Risen Star to the LA Derby, then 6 weeks rest from LA Derby to the Kentucky Derby... why is this 5 week rest any special ? I'm curious as to what your reasoning is...why are you expecting an improvement? What did you see from him since the Derby that made you think he'll improve ? Is it the workouts ? Did he gain weight ? Did he muscle up ? I'm genuinely curious...

I remember our discussion about Chrome with me saying that if he's fit and takes to the track, that I can't see him losing the Preakness and you argued how he can get "unfit" in the two week span...so I'm asking a similar question to you. Looking forward to seeing who your other horses are for the Belmont.

re: Looking for Longshots on Memorial Day Weekend

Coldfacts — Thu, 29 May 2014 02:40:32 GMT

I would be surprised if Commanding Curve is not an improved colt after his KD effort. I have reviewed the KD several times and his race was more impressive than that of the winner.

He broke from either post 18 or 19 and gradually made his way over to the rail. He was switched from the rail to secure room to make his mid race move. He passed horses at a steady clip to the top of the stretch where he had to go 8 to 10 wide and still had enough energy to close on CC. While CC covered 10F en route to victory, CC2 covered 10 1/4F en route to second in placeless race.

It’s hard to believe the Derby was only his 3rd start as a 3YO. With five plus weeks between races this colt is going to be a totally different animal on Belmont day. With expected improvement he has the best chance of preventing the TC from being achieved.

re: Looking for Longshots on Memorial Day Weekend

-Keelerman — Thu, 29 May 2014 02:05:23 GMT

Brontexx;

That's a good point about the fields sizes of each Belmont Stakes in which a horse won the Triple Crown -- I went back and looked at the charts of those races, and found that the Citation and Seattle Slew faced the most rivals in their Triple Crown-clinching victories, heading to post against seven rivals apiece in the Belmont Stakes.

On the other end of the spectrum, Sir Barton and Count Fleet faced the least number of rivals, each one defeating two rivals in the Test of the Champions.

So it seems that if California Chrome is to win the Triple Crown, he'll have to defeat more horses in the Belmont Stakes than any of the other Triple Crown winners. It will definitely be a challenge!

re: Looking for Longshots on Memorial Day Weekend

Brontexx — Wed, 28 May 2014 22:27:27 GMT

With a name like UWs it seems like someone was implying the PPs are encrtpted and a neophyte will need to serve an apprendeship to deciper it.PPs are just historical stats the player has to make projections to win at the track not be a historian.Its not bad to be good with numbers also because the odds are the meat and potatoes of this game.

re: Looking for Longshots on Memorial Day Weekend

Brontexx — Wed, 28 May 2014 22:15:00 GMT

Keelerman since you are the head cheese for this blog I think you should be allowed to pick a NEW NAME for it.

I dont think any of us will try to tell anyone he or she is a SAFE CRACKER well maybe the KENTUCKY KOMIC might.

re: Looking for Longshots on Memorial Day Weekend

Brontexx — Wed, 28 May 2014 22:08:38 GMT

Unlocking Winners sounds like a name for a locksmith blog.

For any UW historians when was the last time a TC winner won the last leg the Belmont where he raced in more than a 7 horse field.

re: Looking for Longshots on Memorial Day Weekend

JayJay — Wed, 28 May 2014 06:29:35 GMT

Coldfacts : My bad, I forgot about my post to you with regards to Rusty's comment.

re: Looking for Longshots on Memorial Day Weekend

JayJay — Wed, 28 May 2014 04:16:44 GMT

Coldfacts : I'm not sure why you posted your last comments to me but regarding your comment :

" Being superior to the opposition does not always equate to a victory. "

There's a flipside to that, inferior horses, most of the time does not equate to victory...as obvious as that is..it seems you prefer to ignore it when it comes to Chrome. I'm a longshot player, I always try to beat the "best" based on paper and specially the odds so I'm very well aware that the best horse doesn't always win, I think that's common knowledge if you've been playing horses for some time. Having said that, I've told you before, sometimes the best horse does win. He won the Kentucky Derby and he won the Preakness, two totally different races, two totally different fields and two totally different tracks. I've seen enough to believe he is much better than any colts this year. I'm not going to question you for trying to beat him. If this was any other horse, I'd be salivating at the juicy prices of the other horses because Chrome will be very heavily bet. I'm in it to see him win the triple crown, there'll be a lot of races where I can try and will bet against the favorite, but not this one. I understand you're in it for the money and that's perfectly fine.

If he loses, so be it, but I'm going to root for him to win...

Anyway, which horses are you betting to beat him ?

re: Looking for Longshots on Memorial Day Weekend

Rusty Weisner — Tue, 27 May 2014 19:24:34 GMT

Coldfacts,

You don't have to shed a frog about it.

re: Looking for Longshots on Memorial Day Weekend

-Keelerman — Tue, 27 May 2014 19:01:17 GMT

It has been reported that Medal Count, runner-up in the Blue Grass Stakes and most recently eighth in the Kentucky Derby, has joined the expected lineup for the Belmont Stakes.

Medal Count has worked twice at Churchill Downs since the Derby, breezing a half-mile in :49 on May 17th and five furlongs in a bullet :59 2/5 on May 24th.