Passing Some Time at Penn National

re: Passing Some Time at Penn National

JayJay — Wed, 04 Jun 2014 04:17:16 GMT

Rusty : I think everyone here knows I'm going, no need to remind them. To be honest, I'm freakin' out as I don't know that area at all, if there's one thing I'm sure of this trip...it's that I'll get lost driving to the track.

At this point, I'm more interested in the horses that Coldfacts will use to try and beat Chrome lol. Moving on to the new blog...

re: Passing Some Time at Penn National

-Keelerman — Tue, 03 Jun 2014 23:11:14 GMT

Four days to go! Here's the link to my latest blog post, analyzing several trends that have arisen in recent editions of the Belmont Stakes: cs.bloodhorse.com/.../five-belmont-stakes-trends.aspx

re: Passing Some Time at Penn National

-Keelerman — Tue, 03 Jun 2014 22:48:00 GMT

Rusty Weisner;

The connections of Palace Malice have been targeting the Metropolitan Handicap for a while now, and as Secreteriat mentioned, the possibility of raising Palace Malice's value is a stallion may be one of the main reasons why. But while Palace Malice may be best at longer distances, I believe he is versatile enough to win a one-mile race against top-class company, especially at Belmont Park.

One of the reasons I'm looking forward to the possibility of singling him in the pick four is because I don't particularly care for the chances of Goldencents in the Met Mile, and as a Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile winner, Goldencents is bound to receive a great deal of support in the wagering. The vertical wagers could also be intriguing if it looks like Goldencents might run off the board.

Monarchos Matt;

Thanks for the information on the pick four! I can certainly understand why the NYRA would want to alternate between turf and dirt races, but I do hope they change their minds and include the Ogden Phipps in the pick four. Outside of the Belmont Stakes, it could prove to be the most exciting race of the day!

re: Passing Some Time at Penn National

derbygal — Tue, 03 Jun 2014 21:40:09 GMT

From Belmont Notes 6-3.

Billy Turner, who trained Seattle Slew through a sweep of the 1977 Triple Crown, briefly handicapped this year's Belmont Stakes this morning outside his barn.

"I think it's going to be a great race, I really do," said Turner, currently the only living trainer who has won the Triple Crown. "California Chrome is the outstanding horse of the crop. The only question you have is, will he get the mile and a half? He certainly appears to be the best of the 3-year-old crop, no question, but a mile and a half can be a little bit strange and we have a few horses in there who will get the mile and a half. Tonalist was very impressive in the Peter Pan and Wicked Strong has been training like a monster of a horse, and [Wicked Strong] is bred to run that far."

re: Passing Some Time at Penn National

Little Bill — Tue, 03 Jun 2014 21:37:22 GMT

Not the first time I've seen the Vet pat himself on the back for running up the track, what the............

By the way he will pick Tonalist. I also think Tonalist will run big.

re: Passing Some Time at Penn National

Brontexx — Tue, 03 Jun 2014 21:16:56 GMT

In the KD here is the notation I would make if I was keeping score * -II-3rd,which translates into favorite asterick- a double figure longshot not top 3 betting choice-and 3rd choice Here is the Preakness notation *-3rd-2nd which you should have guessed means favorite-3rd choice-2nd choice.Thats why if I would have played tris and supers I was putting A-rod in 2nd he was a double figure long shot not in the top three betting choices. Be aware ROC was 3rd choice at more than 10-1.Believe me Im NOT THE ONLY ONE THAT KNOWS THIS, a computer that runs software betting exotics definitely knows this.I am pretty sure at least one of you on this blog knows this because I see the structure he uses to play exactas in particular, in more than one of his picks on this blog.You know who you are and so do I.I have been studying this game from many different angles for more than 20 years.

re: Passing Some Time at Penn National

Rusty Weisner — Tue, 03 Jun 2014 20:28:49 GMT

KY VET,

"in the preakness i bet against the huge fav, and had 2 horses the 2nd and third best horses...curlin ran the race of his life at 10-1, a-rod had about 8 lengths of trouble at 17-1"

The huge fav won, the "third best horse" was off the board. It was mighty nice of the teller to pay you anyway.

How hard is it to say who you like in the Belmont and why?

re: Passing Some Time at Penn National

Brontexx — Tue, 03 Jun 2014 20:23:39 GMT

I see CC1 in the exotics(state the obvious)but as a vertical exotic player if he gets 2nd,it could pay more than you think, depending on the others, at least in the super.If he finishes 3rd the tri will pay a LOT relatively speaking, because you will have 12 times 11 (132) possible outcomes keying him in 3rd.Since he is going for the TC if he gets 3rd and the 2nd and 3rd betting choices dont come in any order in 1st and 2nd in a 12 horse field, believe it or not it could be a 500 dollar plus tri for the one dollar bet.Dont let the 132 possible outcomes fool you on this one, CC1 will be keyed on top in so many more tris and supers than the next 5 colts combined or more.

I use odds and number patterns to help me come up with illogical combinations otherwise you could end up betting favorites.Look at the results in the KD and the Preakness,the Preakness was chalk in the tri the KD was chalk 1st and 3rd.I think I will look for prices in 2 of the three tri spots and cover with Chrome exactas.

re: Passing Some Time at Penn National

derbygal — Tue, 03 Jun 2014 19:46:24 GMT

Secreteriat;

Animal Kingdom not in the super, as he finished 6th in the 2011 Belmont Stakes as the favorite.

re: Passing Some Time at Penn National

Secreteriat — Tue, 03 Jun 2014 19:16:23 GMT

Rusty,

Do not get overconfident on Wicked Strong.Jerkens's biggest worry in the derby was him loosing his race in the paddock. I,ve heard comments from those in the know that he could be worse than S I in the paddock. With the gate right in front of 100,000 people some horses do not react well and there will also be large crowds in the infield that will be screaming with 1/16 of a mile before the wire.

Remember Quality Rd in the B/C and Real Quiet. Baffert is convinced that the infield crowd spooked R Q for a split second allowing Victory Gallop to nose him at the wire. We cannot handicap for this stuff so have a backup just in case.

Palace Malace is a lock at a mile . Horses cutting back in distance do very very well and the Met Mile winners are worth millions in the breeding shed!

re: Passing Some Time at Penn National

KY VET — Tue, 03 Jun 2014 19:13:13 GMT

Yes....i'm betting against cali chrome......why? I'm a pro......i'm actually betting like rusty......many tri combos......this is the perfect storm........time to get richer!!!!!!!!!!!1

re: Passing Some Time at Penn National

KY VET — Tue, 03 Jun 2014 19:11:05 GMT

rusty.....how do you even call what you do handicapping? You go on these weird things....youre all over the place........no consistancy..........and i give my choices this year in the derby, and preakness an "a"........danza got 3rd at good odds with a bad trip........in the preakness i bet against the huge fav, and had 2 horses the 2nd and third best horses...curlin ran the race of his life at 10-1, a-rod had about 8 lengths of trouble at 17-1........im having one of my best years so far..........you really dont wanna know............

re: Passing Some Time at Penn National

Rusty Weisner — Tue, 03 Jun 2014 18:17:43 GMT

Monarchos Matt,

Palace Malice improved with bigger breaks between races: Derby/Belmont/Jim Dandy-Travers.

Oxbow is the better comparison to ROC, but I think Oxbow was a cut above, judged by his Derby & Preakness, and I'm willing to gamble on a bounce given more enticing odds on ARod. I've got two horses I find hard to distinguish in terms of ability: I'll go with the better odds here and invent another justification to boost my confidence;-)

For me CC is not a "good bet" at less than 4-5, but I really picture him leading entering the last furlong with a two horse race, like Smarty Jones. Maybe someone with more guts will try to beat him in the exacta.

This is all moot, though. We're going to win a bunch on Wicked Strong. I'll have multiple P4 tickets: one where I try to "buy" the P4, one where I try to handicap it, maybe another where I have a second single. Without a live ticket going into the Belmont it'll be WS on top of all exotics tickets.

re: Passing Some Time at Penn National

Rusty Weisner — Tue, 03 Jun 2014 18:04:19 GMT

Keelerman,

I like Palace Malice less at a mile. What do you think, and why this race -- is it just the most prestigious race that fits his calendar?

re: Passing Some Time at Penn National

Rusty Weisner — Tue, 03 Jun 2014 18:00:02 GMT

Brontexx,

Thanks. I think I've talked myself into putting ARod into tris with my top two. If I did supers they would just be chalky ones using the remainder of the horses I mentioned. I don't know how to distinguish among the newcomers and longshots and for me there's just too much random luck in filling out the super.

I think, odds-wise, a good point of comparison will be looking at the chart from the Smarty Jones Belmont, a nine-horse field (I think we have ten this year?) with a very chalky favorite. The War Emblem Belmont, with a field of 12, might also be comparable because it had a tougher bunch of customers from the other TC races, like this year; same goes for the Point Given Belmont.

I've got enough time to kill. Maybe I'll try a ML.

re: Passing Some Time at Penn National

Monarchos Matt — Tue, 03 Jun 2014 17:55:45 GMT

Coldfacts,

I agree with you that CC is not a good bet, although don't necessarily agree that he cannot win with certainty. His Preakness certainly left much to be desired against a very weak field. I'll try to beat him on top of exotics, but feel he has to be used defensively in multi-race wagers. The $2 win bet would be for nostalgic purposes only, as I wouldn't cash the ticket anyway should he win...so either way it would be a donation.

I'm not understanding the knocks on ROC based on him being too tired. This horse has improved with each race this year, save the Derby which was more like a glorified jog for him anyway. I remember similar arguments against the Lukas trained Oxbow and WTC last year,and while the former suffered injury that may or may not have been related to his campaign, the latter was certainly no worse for wear come fall.

Palace Malice, another Curlin, displayed a similar trajectory last year, improving with each race, winning the Belmont and reaching peak form in the fall despite consistent racing. He is now arguably the best horse in training. Point being, sometimes a horse isn't "tired" following a career effort. Sometimes he's just getting better.

re: Passing Some Time at Penn National

Monarchos Matt — Tue, 03 Jun 2014 17:43:41 GMT

Keelerman,

For what it's worth, the NYRA released a "tentative" race schedule that lists the Just A Game as the lead leg of the Pick 4 in place of the Phipps...which would be a bit disappointing, but it appears they will stagger the turf and dirt races? Without seeing the final entries, based on the probables, it appears a race loaded with late runners. The consistent Discreet Marq, winner of 3 of her last 4 at BEL, could get a fairly easy lead and looks very tough to me.

re: Passing Some Time at Penn National

Pedigree Ann — Tue, 03 Jun 2014 17:31:38 GMT

JJ's Rocket - I have to agree with you about horses who have on occasion gone to the lead but aren't there most of the time. Tonalist went out on the lead in the Peter Pan, but he had never done so before; in his first two starts, he was rather far back early. Heck, Ride On Curlin went to the lead at Oaklawn when it was wet, but that isn't his normal style, either. Samraat hasn't hit the lead early since he left the inner track behind, sitting a couple lengths behind the leaders. And Chrome's only wire-to-wire victory was when he out-broke his field. That leaves General A Rod, but even he has only a single race (around one turn) where he was ahead at the ST call. So we actually have no dedicated, "gotta get to the front end NOW" sort of horse in the field, like War Emblem was. Sounds like an interesting tactical problem for the jockeys to sort out.

re: Passing Some Time at Penn National

Brontexx — Tue, 03 Jun 2014 17:13:47 GMT

Rusty Weisner looks like a good bet.You know that one of the longest shots will make the super pay without even mentioning the tri.CC2 was that colt in the KD at over 30-1,but he will be less than half that in the Belmont.I think Im pretty sure Matusak and Matterhorn will be two of the ones that will make this pay,but maybe Im forgetting one of the entries,who do you think will go off at more than 25-1?

re: Passing Some Time at Penn National

Pedigree Ann — Tue, 03 Jun 2014 17:02:14 GMT

However, Steve Haskin also wrote in the article about Medal Count, "Dynaformers as a whole are dirt horses," which can be easily disproved and I don't know why he wrote such a tarradiddle. I count 4 G1 dirt horses and 10 G1 winners on turf. Plus a couple of G1 chasers. Even if it were even-steven, his statement would be incorrect.

re: Passing Some Time at Penn National

-Keelerman — Tue, 03 Jun 2014 17:02:01 GMT

Great thoughts, everyone! Sorry for my lack of comments yesterday, but I'm back now and ready to start seriously handicapping the Belmont Day stakes races!

First off, I agree with Brontexx that Medal Count is going to offer better value than Commanding Curve -- perhaps substantially better value -- and as a result, I'm leaning toward using Medal Count in some way (possibly for the bottom two slots of a superfecta?), while possibly taking a stand against Commanding Curve. For the last two weeks, I've been trying to convince myself to toss Commanding Curve from consideration entirely, but thus far, I haven't succeeded. The fact that he closed into a moderate early pace in the Derby has me worried, especially since fellow Derby closer Ride On Curlin came back with a much-improved effort in the Preakness.

For those who like Medal Count, it's encouraging to note that Brilliant Speed -- a very talented turf/synthetic horse that won the Blue Grass Stakes in 2011 -- managed to finish third in the 2011 Belmont Stakes despite so-so form on dirt. It's also worth noting that both Brilliant Speed and Medal Count were sired by Dynaformer, so perhaps Medal Count's strong distance pedigree will help balance out any possible dislike for dirt.

But no matter which horses I end up using in the underneath slots of the superfecta, I honestly believe that if the Belmont Stakes were to be run ten times, California Chrome would win at least five of them, and with this in mind, I'm leaning toward playing him on top and trying to get some nice prices underneath him in the superfecta and in the other legs of the pick four. Like Monarchos Matt, I'm hoping that the main pick four will be comprised of the Ogden Phipps, Met Mile, Manhattan, and Belmont Stakes. Without seeing the full entries, I feel pretty good about singling Beholder in the Ogden Phipps and Palace Malice in the Met Mile, which would leave the door open to go deep in the Manhattan, or even the Belmont. I might try two pick four tickets, one singling Beholder and Palace Malice while going six or seven deep in the Belmont (California Chrome, General a Rod, Matuszak, Medal Count, Ride On Curlin, Wicked Strong, and possibly Commissioner), and another ticket going deeper in the Ogden Phipps and Met Mile, but singling California Chrome in the Belmont. It's all just speculation at this point -- I'll have to wait until the entries come out before making any definite decisions -- but those are my thoughts at the moment.

On a side note, Kid Cruz is officially out of the Belmont Stakes, so with one day remaining before entries are drawn, it looks like we'll have a field of twelve.

re: Passing Some Time at Penn National

JJs Rocket — Tue, 03 Jun 2014 16:52:47 GMT

If SI defects out of the Belmont as expected, I do wonder if CC will be on the lead. Tonalist is a nice horse but one has to wonder about the sealed wet track and his big number. If it wasn't for his last race you wouldn't think he would be on the lead. Samraat could go but it will probably be by default if he does.

If CC doesn't win the Belmont then the winner will probably come from one of the derby horses that skipped the Preakness. I will be using WS for that horse for me. His 1 mile work with that really long gallop out is what convinced me.

On a side note I would give SI a chance in the WS if he is in there. He has a better chance for two reasons. One is that it is a shorter race and the second is that the starting gate will be on the backside away from all the crazy people. He will still foam at the mouth a little but he should be a lot calmer than being on the front side starting gate.

I like everyone else am still trying to finalize my tri and super bets. I will post them before the race. Im looking to find a longshot but it is going to be tough to do. Good luck to everyone.

re: Passing Some Time at Penn National

Rusty Weisner — Tue, 03 Jun 2014 16:45:12 GMT

Secreteriat,

Of course, the tri pays well if you pick the winner and can narrow the bottom of the ticket down to two or three horses. My point is that I find it hard to narrow down, so for me it's probably not a good bet. Besides CC & WS I like ARod, ROC, CC2 and Medal Count. I think CC2 are ROC are my underlays, while ARod and Medal Count are overlays for being behind the others because of bad trips. I'm willing to take a stab against Medal Count nevertheless, so I guess that means I should try to do something with ARod; let's see what the odds are. Maybe he'll run his lifetime race; I think ROC may already have run his for a while. Regardless, it's nice to see two horses besides CC contending all three legs despite not winning.

re: Passing Some Time at Penn National

Plod Boy Phil — Tue, 03 Jun 2014 16:45:01 GMT

'Value', like beauty, is in the eye of the beholder. One man's underlay may be another's overlay.

re: Passing Some Time at Penn National

Brontexx — Tue, 03 Jun 2014 16:33:56 GMT

Coldfacts here is a coldfact from your post a horse who had not even run in the money since he broke his maiden seven starts ago, a horse who

Commenable had at least seven starts how many does CC2 have 4 the PPS and its historic stats will cause CC2 to be bet down

Here are more of your stats:

Summer Bird 12-1

Drosselmeyer 13-1

Sarava 70-1

Da’ Tara 38-1

Commandable 19-1

CC2 WILL BE AN UNDERLAY and you wont get even 12-1 on him GOOD LUCK on sticking with CC2.