Five Belmont Stakes Trends

re: Five Belmont Stakes Trends

JerseyBoy — Thu, 05 Jun 2014 20:47:45 GMT

Belated correction.

On an entry on this blog, I wrote:

“Birdstone was 6 lengths back”

It was an error.

It should have been:

“Birdstone was 5 lengths back”

I read the wrong line on the Equibase Chart.

re: Five Belmont Stakes Trends

-Keelerman — Thu, 05 Jun 2014 18:04:50 GMT

It's decision time! Here are my selections for the 146th running of the Belmont Stakes: cs.bloodhorse.com/.../belmont-146-selections.aspx

re: Five Belmont Stakes Trends

-Keelerman — Thu, 05 Jun 2014 17:01:24 GMT

TnT;

A handicapping contest sounds good to me! We'll use the same style as usual, with everyone picking one horse per contest race, and scoring based on mythical $2 win/place wagers on each selection. The winner gets bragging rights until the Breeders' Cup! :)

The contest races shall be all of the stakes races at Belmont Park on Saturday. I'll post my selections sometime tomorrow. Good luck to all!

re: Five Belmont Stakes Trends

Brontexx — Thu, 05 Jun 2014 16:37:30 GMT

I havent decided on how I project they will run the race Saturday,I prefer to see more data points on race day.

They could run at a crawling pace or one of the outside posts colts like Tonalist or A-Rod or both could break well and try to get the fence.As far as the break I dont see any of the middle starting posts colts breaking well and making a sustained effort to get on the fence which includes Samaraat and Roc.

5,6,7,8,9 will be content to establish a tracking position.

re: Five Belmont Stakes Trends

Monarchos Matt — Thu, 05 Jun 2014 16:23:27 GMT

Rusty,

I actually prefer Shakin It Up of the two, who actually did win the 8.5f Strub. I just like that in his 7f races, both wins and losses, he is always gobbling up ground late. He seems to be begging for that extra furlong, and he'll get it here, with a strong pace to boot. Beyer figures in my experience tend to hold up better for 6-8f races than anything else, in my experience, so it's worth pointing out that his (and Central Banker's) 107 is tied for the 2nd highest in the field (behind PM).

Normandy Invasion is logical, but was just so far behind PM when those two met that I have trouble using them both, as neither are true milers. GC would be useable at 10-1, but he won't be...he'll probably be second choice...but either way, the layoff and surface switch are good reasons to be against. The other of last year's 3 yo crop that could be tough is Moreno. Still finalizing this one though.

re: Five Belmont Stakes Trends

-Keelerman — Thu, 05 Jun 2014 16:05:03 GMT

Monarchos Matt;

It sounds like Ride On Curlin trained much better at Belmont this morning than he did over the last couple of days, so that has definitely boosted my confidence in his chances. I think he's sitting on another sharp effort this Saturday.

re: Five Belmont Stakes Trends

Secreteriat — Thu, 05 Jun 2014 16:04:43 GMT

My early picks are

1Benji P3 1with 1 6 4 w 2

$50 P3 1 w 1 6 4 w 4-9-11

super 2w 4,7,9,11 w same+ 1,8,9,10 w 4,5,7,8,9,10,11

Tri 4,7,9,11 w 2w 1, 4,7,8,9,10,11

re: Five Belmont Stakes Trends

Rusty Weisner — Thu, 05 Jun 2014 15:57:37 GMT

Coldfacts,

I don't like Tonalist, but I respect your trying to beat CC underneath (though you can always box up your underneath horses in a "key"). Here's another true story, though -- On Derby day I did my betting at the track. There was a brief shower and right after the Derby a rainbow appeared. A Triple Crown unicorn may be next.

re: Five Belmont Stakes Trends

-Keelerman — Thu, 05 Jun 2014 15:51:42 GMT

Rusty Weisner;

As far as I know, NBCSN will indeed be broadcasting the undercard races, while the main broadcast on NBC will show the Belmont Stakes and the Met Mile.

re: Five Belmont Stakes Trends

Monarchos Matt — Thu, 05 Jun 2014 15:50:47 GMT

There's so much negativity surrounding ROC and I don't understand it. Is he more worn down than CC for some reason, despite running the same first two legs of the Triple Crown? Refresh my memory, was he gaining or losing ground on the winner over the final furlong of the Preakness? (Consider that rhetorical). Is he more run down than General A Rod? Samraat? We shall see.

re: Five Belmont Stakes Trends

Brontexx — Thu, 05 Jun 2014 15:50:32 GMT

To continue this long shots dont have good won loss ratios so they need confidence and to get that during the race they need a good trip.If you have 1-2-3-4 and 3 are long shots chances are at least one of the long shots and maybe two will have luck which is involved in a GOOD TRIP.

re: Five Belmont Stakes Trends

Rusty Weisner — Thu, 05 Jun 2014 15:49:09 GMT

Monarchos Matt,

Met Mile: Do you have a take on Shakin' It Up and Central Banker? I am inclined to go against, as neither has won beyond 7f. Their last race was also strange: what looked like a closers' race, but on a speedy strip.

I don't really want to go beyond Palace Malice, Goldencents and Normandy Invasion. NI was supposed to face WTC but scratched on Oaks day. I assumed it was injury, but there's this tale about the connections being offended by Churchill Downs. Whatever. Distance, weight, odds - I give NI a chance to turn the tables. I wonder about the long layoff for Goldencents, though.

re: Five Belmont Stakes Trends

TnT — Thu, 05 Jun 2014 15:44:00 GMT

I maybe off line tomorrow so my picks below.

8-Wabberjack - Like the name to be honest

4-Kid Cruz - Beginning of a big day for Irad

5-Ever Rider - Extra Distance helps him catch Ground Transport. Nice confidence booster for Victor.

11-Salto - Maybe the cut back in distance works for him

5-Coupe de Grace - SI and Bayern cancel out each other on the front end

8-My Miss Sophia - Too fast to catch

6-Princess of Sylmar - Breeders Cup Revenge

6-Waterway Run - Took the lightweight in a wide open race.

5-Moreno - Makes all

4-Grandeur - Always Competitive, First Time Lasix gives him a boost

9-Wicked Strong- The list of TC spoilers continues.

7-Ghurair - Towers above these

Good Luck All

re: Five Belmont Stakes Trends

Brontexx — Thu, 05 Jun 2014 15:42:49 GMT

Oh my bad you also have Matuszak which is all good because now you have one of the bombers.On that note If I had to take one of the bombers in your bet it would be the 3.Why, because you have the inside posts block of 1-2-3-4.You might be aware as I am that inside posts have been very favorable to long shots expected by the betting public as a group to run up the track.Belmont at 12 furlongs might favor the inside posts.

re: Five Belmont Stakes Trends

Brontexx — Thu, 05 Jun 2014 15:37:14 GMT

Coldfacts I like your numbers 1-2-4-9 I just dont like the top 2 betting favorites in the tri so if you key Chromester in 4th and box them otherwise and win, a lot of begginners will be tearing tickets up and cursing if you have "THE WINNING TICKET"

re: Five Belmont Stakes Trends

Rusty Weisner — Thu, 05 Jun 2014 15:35:28 GMT

Does anyone know if NBCSN will actually be televising the undercard races, or is it human (and equine) interest claptrap?

re: Five Belmont Stakes Trends

Coldfacts — Thu, 05 Jun 2014 15:20:32 GMT

Is it conceivable that CC2 could finish out of the exacta & tri? I am firmly with Tonalist to win. I am of the opinion CC2 and Wicked Strong will finish ahead of CC1. Therefore his only slot on the board is possible 4th.

The fans of CC1 are going to accuse me of disrespect with the above scenarios. However, folks like me with wild scenarios will move his odds from 3-5 to even money. It is unlikely that all will worship at the altar of The Chrome.

In all seriousness, the above scenario could unfold. This Belmont field is probably one of the best assembled in years from a stamina perspective. The oddly run Derby did not reflect the true ability of several that have returned for the Belmont.

The Preakness gave indications that if a horse that has never won a graded stakes could get within 1 1/2L of CC1, he has to be vulnerable to graded stakes winners not engage in a demolition Derby. Both horses that finished 2nd to CC1 are without victories in graded races.

Graded stakes winners Wicked Strong and Medal Count experienced bad trips in the Derby and must be dangerous opponents off their 4-5 weeks to recovery. New shooter Tonalist was under a hand ride in the Peter Pan and was eased 10 meters out for 1:48 clocking.

Wishful thinking or practical analysis! You deside.

re: Five Belmont Stakes Trends

Brontexx — Thu, 05 Jun 2014 14:38:32 GMT

Rusty Weisner Mike Shutty is the guy that sells the Super Screener on Horse Racing Nation and it sells itself on spotting recent historic as well as long term trends to screen the contenders using computer science.

It cost $25,I didnt buy it but I monitored its plays because it claims to have hit the supers in the KD for a number of years.Well it played combinations well over a $1000-1500 to win $7000.Thats less than 7-1 and the favorite won.IMO the super screener won because of betting not being accurate in its selections, after all even a neophyte could have played CC/all in the one dollar exacta pool and gotten more bang for his buck than Shutty did.

Computers and software are better used as betting facilitators than as selectors because of their speed.I will reiterate this over and over because it is true,its not about picking winners its about money management and betting.I would say its a 60/40 split in favor of MM over handicapping.If you hedge your bets you can make money back on more than 75-80% of your bets or more depending on how selective you are in which races to bet.So you see you are getting some of your money back regularly so your ROI return on investment sky rockets over the acceptable 5%(long term) if you use exotics and cover in WPS pools.

re: Five Belmont Stakes Trends

Coldfacts — Thu, 05 Jun 2014 14:33:34 GMT

Jamaican Exacta!!!

It might sound crazy but it is in paly and I am going to wager it.

Jamaica does not have many top class jockeys in the US. To have two on two live horses in a TC race is always a rarity.

Both finished on the board in the Derby and skipped the Preakness. Just as Jamaican in their thousands watched as Tessanne Chin won NBC's The Voice, they will be rooting for Wicked Strong and CC2 on Saturday.

re: Five Belmont Stakes Trends

Coldfacts — Thu, 05 Jun 2014 14:25:41 GMT

The stallions below had the distinction of being sire and dam sire of Belmont winners.

Secretariat - Risen Star/A P Indy

Seattle Slew – A P Indy, Swale/Lemon Drop Kid.

Gone West – Commendable/Union Rags

Deputy Minister - Touch Gold/Sarava, Rags To Riches, Jazil

Two stallions have the opportunity to equal the record of the above stallions.

Pleasant Colony - Colonial Affair/(Tonalist pending)

Mr. Prospector - Conquistador Cielo/(Matuszak pending)

Just one more bit of history that can be made long after the demise of Pleasant Colony and Mr. Prospector.

re: Five Belmont Stakes Trends

Rusty Weisner — Thu, 05 Jun 2014 14:20:01 GMT

Matuszak fans,

Kid Cruz is running R2 Saturday.

re: Five Belmont Stakes Trends

Rusty Weisner — Thu, 05 Jun 2014 14:12:03 GMT

Monarchos Matt,

I like it. That's kind of what I was hinting at: I like to go with one race or the other if the field is divided that way. I just got the pp's and will take a look! (Keelerman: put out some more shrimp)

re: Five Belmont Stakes Trends

Rusty Weisner — Thu, 05 Jun 2014 14:06:38 GMT

Brontexx,

Let's not argue. It looks like our handicapping of this race is similar: we have the same underlays. I'm not so hot on the multi-race wagers, where I wanted to single WS, so I think I am going to play a lot to win on WS, then in the vertical exotics I'll go beyond the exacta (my exacta play is too chalky) with both WS and CC on top and underneath.

re: Five Belmont Stakes Trends

-Keelerman — Thu, 05 Jun 2014 14:03:46 GMT

Rusty Weisner;

Don't worry! The moderation of comments should return to normal before too long. There were a few comments here on Unlocking Winners last night that were getting too far off topic, and they have been removed. Fortunately, things have settled down in the meantime, and I expect everything to return to normal shortly. :)

re: Five Belmont Stakes Trends

JJs Rocket — Thu, 05 Jun 2014 14:03:15 GMT

In the Manhattan, the six looks tough in there. There is a lot of mid range shots that could certainly make the tri pay. There has been conversation on here about the 2 and 7 as possible plays. I would throw in the 9 in my underneath horses. Has run very good in his last two grade 1 races against Wise Dan. Also only carries 114 lbs and beat the 2 three races back. This race should be a great betting race and as long as the 1 and 6 don't take the exacta, it should pay nicely.