Will Treve Rebound at Royal Ascot?

re: Will Treve Rebound at Royal Ascot?

Pedigree Ann — Fri, 20 Jun 2014 14:15:23 GMT

Kicking myself for being scared off of Contributer in the second today because of his outside post. Jock got him over to the 3-path at the back just fine, and he blasted down the stretch to beat the favorite owned by The Queen. Only 9/1 in GB but 14/1 on Twinspires. Blast.

re: Will Treve Rebound at Royal Ascot?

Pedigree Ann — Fri, 20 Jun 2014 08:06:50 GMT

Keelerman - we've known that about Spencer for many a year.

As it turned out, the rider of Cannock Chase will get two days for reckless riding for his foul of Barley Mow. Not that this penalty would discourage a jock from doing the same thing when he's riding in a race with a decent purse like those at Royal Ascot. That's my problem with the British way - the owners and trainers who employ the jocks who use these tactics don't have an incentive to find somebody who won't put other horses and jocks in danger.

re: Will Treve Rebound at Royal Ascot?

JerseyBoy — Thu, 19 Jun 2014 21:53:18 GMT

Keelerman:

I wrote about Inchila:

“Hopefully, Jamie Spencer will drop her to last, then produce one of his kamikaze finishes”

He did. But he nearly killed the horse.

This is the trip report from the Sporting Life:

“Held up towards rear, pushed along when not clear run and injured over 2f out, pulled up and dismounted”.

The man is brilliant but reckless.

re: Will Treve Rebound at Royal Ascot?

Pedigree Ann — Thu, 19 Jun 2014 16:37:59 GMT

Taking another flyer on Swivel in the last. If you drop out the Musselborough form (maybe he hates the long trailer ride up to Scotland), and he fits. Drops weight and they get some more off using an apprentice.

re: Will Treve Rebound at Royal Ascot?

Pedigree Ann — Thu, 19 Jun 2014 16:15:51 GMT

At the last minute, I decided to try getting six horses for the price of one, bet #24+ (the field) to win at 10 to 1 and one of them won! Just $2, but at least this makes up for my account not being funded yesterday so that I couldn't get a bet down on Steeler.

re: Will Treve Rebound at Royal Ascot?

Pedigree Ann — Thu, 19 Jun 2014 15:43:09 GMT

What a great race the Gold Cup was! Why don't people like staying races over here? They can be as exciting as any sprint. Notice that mares finished second and third?

re: Will Treve Rebound at Royal Ascot?

-Keelerman — Thu, 19 Jun 2014 15:02:01 GMT

Pedigree Ann;

Great job with Criteria!

re: Will Treve Rebound at Royal Ascot?

-Keelerman — Thu, 19 Jun 2014 15:01:09 GMT

Pedigree Ann;

I thought the same thing! I was surprised that there wasn't an inquiry or a rider's objection. I definitely think the incident cost Barley Mow a placing or two, and that a disqualification was probably warranted.

re: Will Treve Rebound at Royal Ascot?

Pedigree Ann — Thu, 19 Jun 2014 14:52:52 GMT

Feel better now with a place bet on Criteria coming good.

re: Will Treve Rebound at Royal Ascot?

Pedigree Ann — Thu, 19 Jun 2014 14:29:15 GMT

I am steamed. The winner came over on my horse Barley Mow, who was second at the time and whose rider had to snatch up to avoid running into him. In the US I think the winner would have been DQ'd; not that it would do anything for me, since my horse lost the photo for fourth, but I feel the idea that a rider can drop his horse down to the rail and take another horse's lane without being clear, and not a thing is done about it, is dangerous. Jamie Spencer was astonished that the same kind of tactic got his horse DQ'd and he himself got days in the Arlington Classic, as I recall.

re: Will Treve Rebound at Royal Ascot?

JerseyBoy — Thu, 19 Jun 2014 14:24:15 GMT

Keelerman:

INCHILA is drawn wide and has less than a 2-week break from her last start.

I will make this an exception and back her in spite of the wide draw.

Hopefully, Jamie Spencer will drop her to last, then produce one of his kamikaze finishes.

re: Will Treve Rebound at Royal Ascot?

-Keelerman — Thu, 19 Jun 2014 14:01:51 GMT

Pedigree Ann;

Good luck with Barley Mow! My top selection for the day is Brown Panther in the Ascot Gold Cup. I see that Leading Light is the heavy favorite at under even money, but I'm not sure the 2 1/2-mile distance is ideal for him. I much prefer the chances of Brown Panther, who has two good prep runs under his belt and has demonstrated excellent form at extended distances in the past. Granted, he has yet to run farther than two miles, but I believe he has sufficient stamina reserves to stay on strongly in the final half-mile.

I know Estimate won this race last year, but the fact that she didn't have a prep race, and that she dealt with a minor leg issue during the winter, makes me wonder if she won't be up to her best today. Altano is another obvious contender, given that he has won at 2 1/2 miles in the past, but his best races have come over softer ground than he will find today.

Who do you like in the Ascot Gold Cup?

re: Will Treve Rebound at Royal Ascot?

Pedigree Ann — Thu, 19 Jun 2014 10:09:29 GMT

Good calls have been all over the place. Hope they continue.

In the Tercentenary, the old Hampton Court S renamed last year to commemorate the 300th anniversary of the course, I lean toward Barley Mow. He didn't seem to run that well on the soft at Goodwood, but his win at Newmarket at the distance on good-to-firm gives him a good shot here.

re: Will Treve Rebound at Royal Ascot?

Sam Santschi — Wed, 18 Jun 2014 17:51:09 GMT

As Muk's odds plummeted I sat it out...Pedigree Ann--nice call on Steeler. Thanks! It took the sting out of my blunders yesterday.

re: Will Treve Rebound at Royal Ascot?

-Keelerman — Wed, 18 Jun 2014 16:15:44 GMT

Thanks, English Pete! I was happy to see The Fugue perform so well. She's always been a favorite of mine!

Pedigree Ann, nice try with Steeler in the Royal Hunt Cup! It looks like he held for third place at 37-1 in the American pool. Not bad in a thirty-three horse field!

re: Will Treve Rebound at Royal Ascot?

mz — Wed, 18 Jun 2014 15:56:26 GMT

Looks like Coolmore Australia will be very very happy having decided to keep working with Starspangledbanner.

He's making the most of his limited opportunities, isn't he?

Good on him.

I feel somewhat upset about Treve. Although a couple of placings in graded stakes behind some really good horses doesn't sound too shabby.

On with the Ward 2yo's!

re: Will Treve Rebound at Royal Ascot?

English Pete — Wed, 18 Jun 2014 14:56:28 GMT

Keelerman well done. The Fugue won easily. Personally I backed Magician each way, and laid Treve on the exchanges. Treve not the same without last year's age allowance.

Pedigree Ann, good luck on Steeler. I've gone for Gabriel's Kaka, hoping they go too fast early and he picks them up at the death.

re: Will Treve Rebound at Royal Ascot?

JerseyBoy — Wed, 18 Jun 2014 14:33:56 GMT

Thank you, Keelerman.

My bet yesterday, The Wow Signal, also won.

I pick one or two races and ignore the rest.

I do fairly well.

re: Will Treve Rebound at Royal Ascot?

Sam Santschi — Wed, 18 Jun 2014 14:27:59 GMT

Hey Keelerman,

17-1 right now on Muk...count me in although Treve should romp.

re: Will Treve Rebound at Royal Ascot?

-Keelerman — Wed, 18 Jun 2014 13:36:34 GMT

Jersey Boy;

Nice call on Mustajeeb in the Jersey Stakes!

re: Will Treve Rebound at Royal Ascot?

JerseyBoy — Wed, 18 Jun 2014 12:19:34 GMT

In the Racing Post Ratings, Treve is ranked 8 lbs above The Fugue and at least 11 lbs above Magician and the rest.

That makes it an unbettable race for me.

I prefer Mustajeeb each-way, in the Jersey Stakes.

re: Will Treve Rebound at Royal Ascot?

Pedigree Ann — Wed, 18 Jun 2014 10:09:46 GMT

To continue the thought from the last blog, Toronado's win was easier than it sounds; it was a measured 3/4 length, as he had come from behind and swallowed Verrazano in a few strides or so.

Folks on the telly were wondering if Verrazano wanted more distance than a mile, since he seemed a bit one-paced. Talk is of the Irish Champion S at 10f.

I will take a flyer on the Royal Hunt Cup with Steeler. He was a top-class 2yo, winning the Royal Lodge S (G2), etc., but missed his entire 3yo season. They brought him back in Dubai and he ran mid-pack in a couple of group races, so he has some race-fitness and on this big drop in class, he might find himself again. We Yanks really don't know how to handicap this sort of race, where the high-weight has 141 and the low weight 122 (and those that would have had lower weights were 'balloted out' of the race entirely). So why not take a horse named for my brother's favorite football team? Each way, of course.

re: Will Treve Rebound at Royal Ascot?

Pedigree Ann — Wed, 18 Jun 2014 09:48:38 GMT

Notice that the best Euro/Brit/Irish mares run with the guys if they are of the top class and the conditions suit? And beat them when they are best? Not just once a year, but as part of their usual campaigns?

re: Will Treve Rebound at Royal Ascot?

Ranagulzion — Wed, 18 Jun 2014 04:23:58 GMT

Treve is too classy to oppose ...Dank to follow her home.