'Princess' Looks Tough in Delaware Handicap

re: 'Princess' Looks Tough in Delaware Handicap

-Keelerman — Thu, 17 Jul 2014 15:11:37 GMT

Opening day at Del Mar has arrived! cs.bloodhorse.com/.../opening-day-at-del-mar.aspx

re: 'Princess' Looks Tough in Delaware Handicap

-Keelerman — Thu, 17 Jul 2014 02:19:43 GMT

Brontexx;

It has been a bit slow around here, hasn't it? :) It looks like we're the only ones here right now. But I'm sure things will pick up again after Saratoga opens.

I'll definitely be taking a close look at Albano in the Haskell. I think there's a good chance that he'll be overlooked in the wagering thanks to the presence of Untapable, Social Inclusion, and Bayern. Actually, I think the presence of Untapable alone could make all of the other entrants overlays, since I think Untapable will receive more money in the win pool than she deserves. If this is indeed the case, the Haskell could prove an exceptional betting race if Untapable fails to fire her best shot against the colts.

re: 'Princess' Looks Tough in Delaware Handicap

Brontexx — Thu, 17 Jul 2014 01:43:16 GMT

My early selection is Albano the same colt I picked to win his last on the same surface when Uncle Sigh was scratched and he trounced Ring Weekend who incidently runs opening day at Saratoga on the Turf.

Thats just my thumbnail sketch by the time the race is on the clock is when I'll actually decide what to do regarding this race,its not like I have committed a ton of time in the preps leading up to this race like the KD.Then again its 3yos so apart from a couple its the usual suspects.

BTW is this a part time gig for you you seem to appear and disappear magically and all your blog characters have vanished as if they quit this pastime,went broke or been forced into the nuthouse ala Kentucky Vet.

re: 'Princess' Looks Tough in Delaware Handicap

-Keelerman — Wed, 16 Jul 2014 22:46:01 GMT

Brontexx;

Thanks for your thoughts on the Haskell! It looks like a field of eight or nine might turn up for the race, led by Untapable, Social Inclusion, Bayern, Wildcat Red, Albano, and Irish You Well. My gut feeling is to try and beat Untapable, since she's likely to encounter a much faster early pace than she's used to, and if she has to work harder early to keep up, a major upset could be a possibility.

Like you, I'm leaning toward siding with Social Inclusion over Bayern in the Haskell, for the same reasons you outlined. But the presence of Wildcat Red, in addition to Bayern, could make relaxing on or near the lead a bit of a challenge for Social Inclusion. I actually like the chances of Wildcat Red pretty well, but post position will have a major impact on my handicapping. I would like to see Wildcat Red draw inside of Social Inclusion and Bayern, beat them both to the lead, and try to steal the race while saving ground all the way around. Who is your early selection?

re: 'Princess' Looks Tough in Delaware Handicap

Brontexx — Wed, 16 Jul 2014 22:12:12 GMT

I will go back to my first sentence on this blog as the Haskell is a Grade one as far as I remember:

This critique isnt meant to be negative, although anyone that reads it could perceive it as such, but picking favorites in stakes races is a tough way to win.

Since we live in the information age Keelerman and you can find out who is probable or definitely running in the race do you have your thumbnail sketch in your mind of your pick without the race day information?

re: 'Princess' Looks Tough in Delaware Handicap

Brontexx — Wed, 16 Jul 2014 16:35:55 GMT

If SI is calm he can beat Bayern at 9 panels eventhough he was crushed by Bayern in the last at a shorter distance,inotherwords IMO SI has more speed at a distance as opposed to Bayern who could win the Haskell as that surface has been kind to colts such as Verazano.

re: 'Princess' Looks Tough in Delaware Handicap

Brontexx — Wed, 16 Jul 2014 16:32:57 GMT

I think the humans that are the caretakers of Bayern want him to ration his speed.He crushed the field in his last where I didnt like Social Inclusion because it was a sprint or a short race,he is a distance horse that needs to settle himself internally and he is more of a distance horse than Bayern IMO.I mean distance in 2014 not in the 1970s.The race is at 9 panels and Bayern should switch places on the oddsboard this time with Social Inclusion.

re: 'Princess' Looks Tough in Delaware Handicap

-Keelerman — Wed, 16 Jul 2014 15:39:40 GMT

I should also point out that Bayern's slow five-furlong work may have been planned, since he breezed a mile in a stiff 1:37.80 just six days ago. I would expect that Bayern will have one more work before the Haskell -- perhaps a slightly sharper five-furlong breeze, or maybe a moderate half-mile.

re: 'Princess' Looks Tough in Delaware Handicap

-Keelerman — Wed, 16 Jul 2014 15:36:38 GMT

A couple of potential Haskell starters were on the work tab this morning, flashing drastically different amounts of speed. At Gulfstream Park, Social Inclusion breezed a half-mile in a blazing :45.65 seconds, which was the bullet of the morning by nearly seven-tenths of a second. Meanwhile, at Del Mar, Bayern worked five furlongs in a much more moderate 1:02.80 seconds, the ninth-fastest of sixteen morning works at that distance, and :02 2/5 seconds slower than the bullet time.

re: 'Princess' Looks Tough in Delaware Handicap

-Keelerman — Wed, 16 Jul 2014 15:30:52 GMT

Thanks, Brontexx! It was a nice day in general for Unlocking Winners -- TimeformUS called Hangover Kid as the winner of the Bowling Green at just under 5-1, and Ed DeRosa hit the all-stakes pick four on Saturday at Arlington!

re: 'Princess' Looks Tough in Delaware Handicap

Brontexx — Sun, 13 Jul 2014 18:28:23 GMT

Keelerman you join Secreteriat in the winners circle here are your final picks

So, I’ll take Princess of Sylmar on top of a trifecta with Belle Gallantey in second and Flashy American and Molly Morgan in third. I may also try an exacta with Belle Gallantey on top of Princess of Sylmar, just in case Belle Gallantey takes another step forward on Saturday.

re: 'Princess' Looks Tough in Delaware Handicap

-Keelerman — Sun, 13 Jul 2014 17:46:22 GMT

Secreteriat;

Great job handicapping the Delaware Handicap! Congratulations!

re: 'Princess' Looks Tough in Delaware Handicap

Brontexx — Sun, 13 Jul 2014 15:30:06 GMT

The Princess was dominant as a 3yo but when racing against older has only won an ungraded stake thus far.If I was a buyer I would look at theses details and not just go by the selling point she won so and so grade 1s,yes she did but as a 3yo not and against older.

re: 'Princess' Looks Tough in Delaware Handicap

Brontexx — Sun, 13 Jul 2014 15:16:20 GMT

If I ever wrote a book about my style of horse play one possible title "In The Money"

re: 'Princess' Looks Tough in Delaware Handicap

Brontexx — Sun, 13 Jul 2014 15:12:31 GMT

My bad the Princess is still considered a Filly at 4 and not a mare,male colts become horses at 4 is the reason I made that mistake.

re: 'Princess' Looks Tough in Delaware Handicap

Brontexx — Sun, 13 Jul 2014 15:09:07 GMT

Keelerman my original notion was correct when I said that its a tough road picking the favorite in stakes competition as opposed to the lower classes of races.

If you look at the paper in the same race and the trainers in the money record in graded stakes as opposed to their 2014 in the money record every single trainer has a lower in the money percentage in graded stakes.

Secreteriat had the right race scenario and he took the 2nd choice in the field and won the bet.These horses that make it to these graded stakes are all very talented and unless they make it here lightly raced they can change running style slightly and take what is given to them easily thats what Belle Gallentey and her connections did and they easily took a Gr1.The Princess is not a dominant mare and she has only won three races in a row once in her career and she won the 4th race also but the 5th in that form cycle was a Breeders Cup race which can be a whole lot tougher because the runners are stakes horses that have gone thru qualifying races to even run.

re: 'Princess' Looks Tough in Delaware Handicap

Secreteriat — Sun, 13 Jul 2014 13:45:38 GMT

Thank you Brontexx,

I did not hit the TRI

The exacta was my backup bet and it worked well.

re: 'Princess' Looks Tough in Delaware Handicap

Pedigree Ann — Sun, 13 Jul 2014 11:02:39 GMT

Pace makes the race. It's one of the old saws of racing wisdom. Horses like the Princess, who wants to close from behind, are especially vulnerable to a slow early pace.

re: 'Princess' Looks Tough in Delaware Handicap

Brontexx — Sat, 12 Jul 2014 23:42:06 GMT

Secreteriat good job here are your picks

$20 TRI 6 W 1-2 W 1-2

$10 Exacta 1-6

Did you get the tri also you have the right numbers

re: 'Princess' Looks Tough in Delaware Handicap

Secreteriat — Sat, 12 Jul 2014 21:59:51 GMT

Belle Gallantey lulls them to sleep!

Nice Score.

re: 'Princess' Looks Tough in Delaware Handicap

Brontexx — Sat, 12 Jul 2014 21:06:25 GMT

Bloggers how ever many of you actually exist or are reading the blog,just looked at the odds Im not betting the race the only bet that will pay well if the Princess wins is if the 5 comes in 2nd.GL on those of you that are betting.My paper pick is 6-4 4-6,but now I will paper pick the 6-45-45 tri.GL

re: 'Princess' Looks Tough in Delaware Handicap

Brontexx — Sat, 12 Jul 2014 16:36:18 GMT

Think again if you believed the ole wives tale that trainers are not good handicappers because the best ones finish 1st 2nd and 3rd more than 50% of the time.

When you follow trainers you watch some races where the trainers horse has an inside position in a route race and his figures arent competetive in this group because of the speed etc of the best,they just save ground and get a piece and get a good workout to point for a race they can win down the road.I think this works better on the turf because in American racing very few races are won by the frontrunner as opposed to American dirt racing where you can save all the ground you want but if you are too far behind the hard surface helps the early runners and pressers maintain their advantage.

re: 'Princess' Looks Tough in Delaware Handicap

-Keelerman — Sat, 12 Jul 2014 15:31:10 GMT

Pedigree Ann;

Thanks for your thoughts! I just watched the July Cup, and I thought Undrafted gave a pretty good account of himself. Entering the final few hundred yards, I thought he had a chance to go on and win the race, but a few others had a bit more kick coming down to the finish. Still, he wasn't beaten much while coming home fourth, and I think he ran well enough to warrant another try at a major European sprint sometime in the future. If his connections are willing to forgo a trip to the Breeders' Cup, the QIPCO British Champions Sprint Stakes could prove an admirable goal. It certainly would be exciting!

re: 'Princess' Looks Tough in Delaware Handicap

Secreteriat — Sat, 12 Jul 2014 13:14:47 GMT

$20 TRI 6 W 1-2 W 1-2

$10 Exacta 1-6

Using All works in Tri's and Supers because jocks tend to pull up their horses if they feel they can't get a placing and longshots finish in the money. In the meantime some trainers know their horse can't win but is good for 2nd and third. Making money is the connections objective and mine is to identify those intentions. Good Luck

re: 'Princess' Looks Tough in Delaware Handicap

Pedigree Ann — Sat, 12 Jul 2014 09:30:21 GMT

Actually, Keelerman, I've never seen a race run by Undrafted so I'm not a good judge. One wouldn't think that he had the class to deal with this lot, because US horses sprint on turf usually because they couldn't do anything else. Couldn't sprint or route on dirt, couldn't route on turf, that leaves..., There is a reason the best level of turf sprints in the US is G3. (The G1 for the BC is bogus, IMHO.) But Due Diligence (boy, names are recycling faster and faster) surprised me at Ascot, so...,

His record says he has good mile form, which is a plus in my book, because the ground may have dried some from yesterday but it will still be a bit testing and the course is slightly uphill (with undulations). He has the #1 draw, along the standside rail, which could also be good, depending on which part of the track is firmest on the day. Yesterday, standside was very good.