Tonalist Looks Tough in Jim Dandy Stakes

re: Tonalist Looks Tough in Jim Dandy Stakes

JayJay — Mon, 28 Jul 2014 02:16:34 GMT

Coldfacts: You either missed or totally ignored it. I provided two previous races, one with a snail pace where he won and one with a fast pace where he wasn't competitive. The difference was that he wasn't competitive in the G1 race, get it ? That was the whole point of the discussion. I don't get confused even if you try to drown me with useless information because I know that's what you do.

Again, you're handicapping this year's Travers based on what Moreno did last year. Please continue doing that, don't change.

You were wrong about KC...that comment was for this blog, the Jim Dandy. You said he was going to upset the top two horses. Did he ? No, so you were wrong.

I never said he wasn't going to improve, in fact, I said "until he proves me wrong"

Post race analysis is analyzing the race, this one is the 2014 Jim Dandy, what does last year have anything to do with this race ?? You were using last year to prove that KC has a chance to improve, that's it, nothing more nothing less. It doesn't make sense because Moreno and KC are two totally different horses, Moreno is a speed horse, KC is a closer...I don't know how you get the correlation.

I get a feeling this has nothing to do with KC at all, just you being mad at me calling you out and questioning your cold facts lol. I would suggest a name change of MY coldfacts, because your posts are all about how YOU interpret history and the facts. Snipping little bits and pieces to quote isn't cold facts...

re: Tonalist Looks Tough in Jim Dandy Stakes

Brontexx — Sun, 27 Jul 2014 15:27:43 GMT

Whoever picked the winner even the exotics in the Jim Dandy no big deal I did too and to be honest it was easy but its not wise to play an exacta to the two betting favorites in a six horse field that why my pick going back to my post right before Ky Vet posted his gibberish was:

Keelerman the blogs characters have abandoned CC2 consensus seems to be Tonalist and WS with a few picking KC.Its a six horse field Ill take the 4 over the 256 and the 7 win/place.

re: Tonalist Looks Tough in Jim Dandy Stakes

Rusty Weisner — Sun, 27 Jul 2014 13:19:24 GMT

I actually like Cold Facts in Mth r5, an alw/ocl. The favorite is a somewhat classy 3-yo who just broke his maiden, but my prejudice is in favorite of older. The second favorite is such an older horse, but I'm inclined to take the one who ran in a faster race at a higher level last out and hopelessly chased a favorite setting the pace in a 5-horse field. This race starts the p5 with an overlapping p4.

re: Tonalist Looks Tough in Jim Dandy Stakes

Coldfacts — Sun, 27 Jul 2014 13:05:50 GMT

JayJay,

“So after all the multiple comments about how KC is the best horse in this race”

You must be experiencing optical impairment. Kindly post an extract from any of must posts that either specify or infer that KC was the best horse in the race.

You are correct I did not take into account the pace and it certainly did not favor KC. I also missed the fact that he returned on short rest. However, he was close enough but surprising dropped back at a crucial point in the race but was running at the end. An encouraging effort on which he can build.

In 2013 Moreno almost stole the JD from in front. Palace Malice and WTC caught him late. It appears the JD favors leaders. Alpha was a gate to wire winner the year before. I would not read too much into the race.

“The pace wasn’t the reason KC lost.”

OK Mr. Analyst, why did Tonalist lose? You consider KC a G2 horse at best. Let’s move on.

“Instead of admitting you were wrong, you posted about Moreno”

You are wearing me down with you misinterpretations. I cited Moreno because he won the G2 Dwyer and finished 3rd in the Jin Dandy. He narrowly missed winning the Travers. His record was somewhat similar to that of KC. He returned with a much improved performance in the Travers. He defeated both the Derby and Belmont winners in the Travers. The issue is or not KC is a top level horse. It has nothing to do with being right or wrong regarding the JD. It about being objective bout ability.

“Look, you were wrong about KC”

I liked the horse to upset the big two and it did not occur. I do not believe I am wrong about its ability. He has the rest of the year to put his ability on display. Calm Down!

I’m seriously having a hard time understanding why you’re handicapping last year’s Travers on this blog“

I have come to the realization that you I have to use bullet points as you get confused when too much information is provided.

How does one handicap a race after it has occurred? After a race what occurs is post-race analysis. If you were unaware of same I expect a thank you for alerting you to this fact. Unbelievable!

re: Tonalist Looks Tough in Jim Dandy Stakes

English Pete — Sun, 27 Jul 2014 11:08:46 GMT

Just crawled out of bed after a "Taghrooda Party", and watched the Jim Dandy replay. Tonalist appeared close enough if good enough off the final bend, though Keelerman is correct that Tonalist made up a lot of ground in the fastest part of the race and that didn't help the cause. Bottom line is that Wicked Strong was the better horse at the distance on the day, and both were way superior to their rivals. Both may strip a little fitter in the Travers, but to be honest neither may be quite good enough to win it.

re: Tonalist Looks Tough in Jim Dandy Stakes

JayJay — Sun, 27 Jul 2014 06:31:47 GMT

Keelerman : Interesting, I’m not sure he was slow to get going, I think maybe he’s not cranked up and was just outrun out of the gate or maybe Joel thought he can stalk WS believing he has a better horse. I’m hoping WR or even Bayern romps in the Haskell which will make Tonalist a better price in the Travers. Agree the additional distance will help him unless of course KC enters the race, then it's all over.

Coldfacts : If you’re going to quote me, please read the whole comment. What part of “until he proves me wrong” is irrational ? If he wins the Travers, that’s proving me wrong and I will then say maybe he’s a top horse but (and here’s the keyword) UNTIL he does, I won’t consider him a top level horse.

There's reasons why longshots wins races, with the right set up, any horse can win. It does not mean they are top level horses. You can stop handicapping the Jim Dandy, KC finished 3rd, no threat to the top two horses. I’m seriously having a hard time understanding why you’re handicapping last year’s Travers on this blog.

re: Tonalist Looks Tough in Jim Dandy Stakes

JayJay — Sun, 27 Jul 2014 03:23:07 GMT

Coldfacts : Ahh, ok. So after all the multiple comments about how KC is the best horse in this race, after all the research and information you posted, you forgot to consider the pace ?? Did you look at the Federico Tesio race at Pimlico ? ( 24, 50, 1:16, 1:41 and he still won by 3 ), and the Preakness ( 23, 46, 1:11, 1:35 ) ? Can you see the difference in those two races ? One was against maiden/low level claiming horses and one is a G1 race with top level horses. It seems you should be the one to try and keep it real. The pace wasn’t the reason KC lost. I would take Rusty’s reasoning as more valid than yours.

Instead of admitting you were wrong, you posted about Moreno ?? It’s that type of “history” handicapping I’m talking about, how did you even come up with that ? Is Moreno the same horse as Kid Cruz ? Does this mean KC is a lock to get 2nd, beaten by a nose by whoever is “WTC” this year ? Look, you were wrong about KC, it’s not the end of the world. You might get lucky with your picks in the Haskell tomorrow. Speaking of which, who is your bet to win the Haskell ?

re: Tonalist Looks Tough in Jim Dandy Stakes

-Keelerman — Sun, 27 Jul 2014 02:48:54 GMT

In less than twenty-four hours, the Haskell Invitational will have been run! Whose name will have been added to the long list of memorable winners? Here's the link to my latest blog post, with my full thoughts on the race: cs.bloodhorse.com/.../can-untapable-be-upset-in-the-haskell.aspx

re: Tonalist Looks Tough in Jim Dandy Stakes

Coldfacts — Sun, 27 Jul 2014 02:46:55 GMT

JayJay,

Kid Cruz: “I don't see him as a top level horse”

I am trying desperately to objectively understand your views regarding KC. Will Take Charge finish 8th, 7th & 10th respectively in the Derby, Preakness and Belmont. Who would have predicted that he would be the eventual Champion 3YO?

KC is a former claimer that finished 3rd in his 2nd graded race opposing two G1 winners and somehow you have concluded that he is not a top level horse. A horse does not have to win at the top level to prove it is top level. Given the right set up, KC will win at the top level.

WTC won the G2 Rebel before he won the G1 Travers. KC won the G2 Dwyer and will probably contest the 10F Travers next. The additional furlong could be to his benefit.

There must be something amiss with your reasoning. KC was sent off at 9-2. He had the Derby runner up behind him. The Belmont winner was only 3 1/2L ahead of him in a pace less race.

Are you remotely aware he is a 3YO? The extreme position you have taken is irrational. You should know better.

re: Tonalist Looks Tough in Jim Dandy Stakes

-Keelerman — Sun, 27 Jul 2014 02:45:16 GMT

Rusty Weisner;

Good luck tomorrow! I'll be cheering for you and Long River!

JayJay;

My first impression of the Jim Dandy is that Wicked Strong -- by seizing the initiative in a slowly-paced race -- was able to secure an insurmountable tactical advantage over Tonalist, who seemed a bit slow to get going and was hindered as a result. The internal half-mile from the end of the first quarter to the three-eighths pole was timed in a blazing :46.91 seconds, during which Tonalist actually gained 1 1/2 lengths on Wicked Strong. Had Tonalist been urged more at the start of the race, and taken up position alongside or in front of Wicked Strong, this half-mile fraction would not have been as big a challenge to overcome, which might have led to a very different outcome at the finish.

In any case, I believe that the stretch-out to ten furlongs in the Travers, coupled with some additional sharpening workouts during the next few weeks, should have Tonalist ready to turn the tables on Wicked Strong. That's a race I can't wait to see!

re: Tonalist Looks Tough in Jim Dandy Stakes

Coldfacts — Sun, 27 Jul 2014 02:19:23 GMT

JayJay,

I hope you realize you are being ridiculous. Wicked Strong was unplaced in his 2nd start in a graded race. KC finished 3rd in his second attempt in a graded race.

Moreno won the Dwyer and finished third to the Jim Dandy. He was caught on the line in the 10F Travers by WTC the eventual Champion 3YO.

The race was disappointing as denoted by the final time of 1:49 plus. It did not set up for KC.

Try to keep it real.

The race was disappointing as denoted by the time of 1:49 plus.

I expected more pace

The time of the race 1:49 plus is not overly impressive and he probably needs more pace upfront.

re: Tonalist Looks Tough in Jim Dandy Stakes

JayJay — Sun, 27 Jul 2014 01:55:41 GMT

Rusty : Regardless of the ride, I don't see him as a top level horse. I can't see him doing anything different in the Travers or any race where he's facing top horses and I'll feel that way until he proves me wrong.

WS pretty much set the pace in that race and still managed to pull away from Tonalist at the top of the stretch. This is a weak field so I'm not going to go bonkers on WS.

re: Tonalist Looks Tough in Jim Dandy Stakes

Rusty Weisner — Sun, 27 Jul 2014 01:34:00 GMT

Ranagulzion,

Nice little bit of visualizing that race in the Jim Dandy. I hope you bet it like you called it.

JayJay,

Kid Cruz got a wrong ride there. Should have been more of a contender for second late.

re: Tonalist Looks Tough in Jim Dandy Stakes

Rusty Weisner — Sun, 27 Jul 2014 01:28:44 GMT

So NOW Wicked Strong decides to beat Tonalist! Must have been those blinkers, KY VET. Review Jerkens's description of WS's Belmont and in retrospect you see a horse needing 'em.

Bet and lost $7 today trying that horse in R8 in a p3 with Tonalist and a bunch of others in r9. Tomorrow I'll be incommunicado, diving into the deep of a 14-race Monmouth card, heaven help me. I haven't even doped anything out yet, though my interest is the overlapping p5-p4 sequence in r5-9.

re: Tonalist Looks Tough in Jim Dandy Stakes

JayJay — Sat, 26 Jul 2014 23:57:05 GMT

Keelerman : No worries, I was dead wrong about Ulanbator anyway but I had to take a shot lol. What did you think of Tonalist's run ? It's either he's not cranked 100% or he's just not as good as Coldfacts thinks he is and no, I'm not trying to single Coldfacts out but the's the only one that I've seen post that Tonalist is the best 3 yr old in the country or something like that. I watched the race twice and Rosario was all over him. I wasn’t a believer of Tonalist as I think being fresh helped him win the Belmont but this race was a huge drop for him and I’m thinking now that what you said about MC applies to him as well, the distance of the Belmont helped him too. If this was an off day, then it’s great for the bettors as his odds have gone up for the Travers.

Pedigree Ann : Nice point about WR running well only at GP although, the only time he ran bad and outside of GP was in the Derby and I'm willing to toss that one out and look at the Haskell as his true first race outside of GP. It’s a shorter distance and field, and the post is a lot better. I don’t know how Monmouth compares to GP track though so we’ll see.

I'll probably single Micromanage in the first leg of the P4 with 2by3by3.

re: Tonalist Looks Tough in Jim Dandy Stakes

-Keelerman — Sat, 26 Jul 2014 23:10:14 GMT

JayJay;

I'm not sure why it wouldn't have gone through, except that sometimes the blog's spam detection software will decide -- totally out of the blue! -- that a given comment is spam. It happens to my comments from time to time, but I've found that if I re-word them a bit, they will go through without issue.

re: Tonalist Looks Tough in Jim Dandy Stakes

Brontexx — Sat, 26 Jul 2014 22:53:09 GMT

Today 6 starters between Brown and Pletcher 1first 1 second.Mclauglin still 0fer now 11.

As far as my paper pick on here I got WS win and place yes bloggers I can pick winners with the paper but with the strategy I win at a much much higher percentage.

re: Tonalist Looks Tough in Jim Dandy Stakes

JayJay — Sat, 26 Jul 2014 22:52:17 GMT

Coldfacts : Looks like I was right, KC can't compete against top level horses. I'm sure they'll drop him down to another G3/G2 race and will win like a monster. I tried to post to you explaining why I was betting Ulanbator but looks like it's not getting posted.

Keelerman : Any reason why my other post to Coldfacts is not going through ?

re: Tonalist Looks Tough in Jim Dandy Stakes

-Keelerman — Sat, 26 Jul 2014 22:29:43 GMT

English Pete, Ranagulzion, & Secreteriat;

Great job handicapping the Jim Dandy Stakes! Ranagulzion, I hope you bet the trifecta -- you nailed it cold!

re: Tonalist Looks Tough in Jim Dandy Stakes

-Keelerman — Sat, 26 Jul 2014 22:04:21 GMT

With eight minutes to post time for the Jim Dandy, Tonalist is a very heavy favorite at even money, with Wicked Strong sitting at 2-1. Kid Cruz has dropped considerably from his morning line price of 8-1, and is currently 9-2. Legend and Commanding Curve are both 9-1 (a bit surprising to me), while Ulanbator is the only horse at double-digit odds, currently being listed at 30-1.

If you believe that this is a two-horse race between Tonalist and Wicked Strong, you can secure a profit by boxing them in an exacta -- the Tonalist/Wicked Strong exacta probable is currently paying $4 for every $1 you bet, while the Wicked Strong/Tonalist probable is paying $7 for every $1.

re: Tonalist Looks Tough in Jim Dandy Stakes

JayJay — Sat, 26 Jul 2014 20:48:15 GMT

Coldfacts : It's funny how you quote me and you still missed the point of the post. I don't believe in "History" type of handicapping, I didn't say I don't believe in history. As always, I have to explain everything twice with you.

re: Tonalist Looks Tough in Jim Dandy Stakes

Ranagulzion — Sat, 26 Jul 2014 20:22:32 GMT

K Y Vet 26 Jul 2014 1:51 AM :

I appreciate your post. Regarding Wicked Strong, the experienced and very competent trainer Jimmy Jerkens thinks it just a matter of focus for the horse ...we'll see if you're right about soundness issues but I think that the colt packs the best closing punch in the Jim Dandy to overall Tonalist and stave off the onrushing Kid Cruz.

In the Haskel, the time of freshening and jockey change to Edgar Prado should work wonders for Social Inclusion to stamp his class on this salty group. The pace will be ramped up leaving the half mile marker with Bayern trying to wire the field and Wildcat Red going after him but I can envision Prado sitting in the catbird seat with Social Inclusion and scampering away when they turn for home. Can't wait for a great race. Any upset of my calculation would have to be the filly Untappable from well off the pace.

re: Tonalist Looks Tough in Jim Dandy Stakes

Secreteriat — Sat, 26 Jul 2014 18:14:24 GMT

No Quinella in the Dandy

I will now do A $60 Exacta Tonelist/ W/S

$40 Ex W/S Tonelist

$20 Straight TRI Tonelist/Legend/W/S

re: Tonalist Looks Tough in Jim Dandy Stakes

Coldfacts — Sat, 26 Jul 2014 17:41:15 GMT

The dam of Aldrin is Tap Your Heels who is also dam of leading sire Tapit.

re: Tonalist Looks Tough in Jim Dandy Stakes

Coldfacts — Sat, 26 Jul 2014 17:35:33 GMT

JayJay,

Ulanbator: You specified he would be placed in the 2nd slot behind likely winner Tonalist. That makes no sense. Ulanbator was in receipt of 6lbs from KC in the Dwyer and was beaten 51/4L. He was one pace in the final furlong. He will be in receipt of 2lbs from KC in the JD. He is 10Lbs worst off going 1/2F longer and you are contemplating inserting him in the 2nd slot and yet you give Tonalist as the likely winner.

You like to reference handicapping, how you can justify your pending decision. It does not make handicapping sense. If you seriously like Ulanbator to finish 2nd then KC should be on top.

I realize that thoroughbred racing is a sport of glorious uncertainties but a lot of things have to be in Ulanbatorre's favor for him to split the top three.