Can Untapable Be Upset in the Haskell?

re: Can Untapable Be Upset in the Haskell?

Ranagulzion — Tue, 29 Jul 2014 22:39:22 GMT

Carlos in Cali:

Trust me friend, I know a good horse when I see one and Social Inclusion is a very good horse. I'm sure that many considered Bayern a bust and overrated after the Preakness (I did) but the Trainer found a way to bring him to show his true mettle. With the welcome change in trainer FOR SI I'll stick by my estimation of his talent.

re: Can Untapable Be Upset in the Haskell?

Brontexx — Tue, 29 Jul 2014 20:58:31 GMT

SoloBolo Good luck at the track sir or shud I say on your keyboard at one of your ADW accounts.

re: Can Untapable Be Upset in the Haskell?

SoloSolo — Tue, 29 Jul 2014 20:29:06 GMT

Loved the comments about Palace Malice, and agree completely. There is a news story about Cot Campbell that just came out and I posted this comment: "If you are reading this, Mr. Campbell, thank you for mapping out such a classic, and classy, schedule for PM. Racing at Saratoga, in the JCGC, Met Mile and the Breeder's Cup are races that define a champion. This reminds me of Curlin's campaign in 2007-2008. A huge Curlin fan, I eagerly follow his progeny and loved the back story about Palace Rumor, PM's dam. Good luck with this fine colt--I'll be rooting (and betting) for him." And I'm pleased that SI has gone to Chad Brown.

re: Can Untapable Be Upset in the Haskell?

Rusty Weisner — Tue, 29 Jul 2014 18:13:29 GMT

Coldfacts,

You're right. I was completely forgetting the way WTC started the year.

re: Can Untapable Be Upset in the Haskell?

Brontexx — Tue, 29 Jul 2014 18:10:10 GMT

I dont think the trial and error of the trainers isnt influenced by a very strong emotion that all humans experience in some degree including racehorse owners and trainers.

So while Verrazano might have shown his distance limitations in the mornings the greed clouded the decision making process as well as optimisim.

If you think that the trainers know how to train every animal that they get then the PPs have confused you to the point you abstract what is actually happening and think of everything happening on a PIECE OF PAPER IN YOUR HANDICAPPING WORLD.

re: Can Untapable Be Upset in the Haskell?

Brontexx — Tue, 29 Jul 2014 17:27:00 GMT

Brown is too far behind Pletcher I would think to catch up at Saratoga in wins, but Bloodhorse has reported that a phone call has gained him the talents of SI for his barn.

BTW Bayern won the Haskell setting the pace from the inside that the others that were capable didnt really challenge.Baffert has won this race 7 times and although I dont remember who the others were I would venture to guess they were mostly early presser types.

I still believe that SI is a better 9 furlong and up horse than Bayern.Verazano anexed the same race and he is now considered a miler after all the trial and error of his human connections.

re: Can Untapable Be Upset in the Haskell?

Coldfacts — Tue, 29 Jul 2014 16:34:30 GMT

This is my final submission on PM/WTC

WTC started his 4YO campaign in the G1 Donn, whereas PM started his in the G2 Gulfstream Park Handicap. WTC then shipped across the country to contest the G1 SA Handicap. PM’s next start was in the G2 New Orleans Handicap.

The G1 Donn was won in a NTR and the Big Cap in a NSR. Do you realize how hard WCT had to run to get to the leaders in his first two starts of the year? Palace Malice had two relatively easy races. WTC has contested three G1 races in his 5 starts whereas PM has contested one in his four.

The fact that WTC regressed after his first two starts is understandable. The winner of the Donn has not been seen since and the winner of the Big Cap was beaten in his two subsequent starts.

To compare the 2014 records of the two 4YOs on the basis of victories and defeats without considering the mitigating circumstances would give rise to the conclusion that PM is the better 4YO.

Social Inclusion:

I would have preferred either Mr Mott or Mr Jones as the new conditioner. Their records of turning around talented horse, supersedes that of Mr Brown. Irrespective, the colt has been given a new lease on life with the change.

re: Can Untapable Be Upset in the Haskell?

Rusty Weisner — Tue, 29 Jul 2014 16:14:23 GMT

I was getting ahead of myself hoping Bayern would run in the Travers. It's either that or the Pennsylvania Derby, according to reports today. I have a hard time believing he'll be in the Travers.

re: Can Untapable Be Upset in the Haskell?

Rusty Weisner — Tue, 29 Jul 2014 15:15:37 GMT

Coldfacts,

Just so this argument doesn't go on pointlessly, let me apologize in advance: of course WTC was the better horse last year. I was just referring to last year because I think everything PM did predicted the kind of year he is having and should continue to have this year, particularly a strength at the classic distances, as evidenced by the Belmont and JCGC, if not the BCC. WTC has had problems, beaten in a slow Stephen Foster and a weak G2.

re: Can Untapable Be Upset in the Haskell?

-Keelerman — Tue, 29 Jul 2014 15:11:25 GMT

Rusty Weisner;

I'm hoping to see some longer, somewhat slower workouts from Social Inclusion, including a few from the starting gate. A drop in class would also be a positive sign, although from what I've read, it sounds like Social Inclusion will still be targeting some of the biggest races in the country. A run in the Travers wouldn't surprise me, although another approach (if they want to give him a confidence-booster) would be to run him in an allowance race at Saratoga around the same time as the Travers, then point to the Pennsylvania Derby one month later as a prep for the Breeders' Cup.

In any case, it's going to be fascinating to see how this unfolds!

re: Can Untapable Be Upset in the Haskell?

Rusty Weisner — Tue, 29 Jul 2014 15:08:16 GMT

Coldfacts,

LOL. Uh, aren't you kind of forgetting what WTC and PM have done as four-year olds? Get up to speed on that.

re: Can Untapable Be Upset in the Haskell?

Coldfacts — Tue, 29 Jul 2014 14:13:09 GMT

Rusty Weisner,

"His BC showing came after a long, long campaign, and he was still a 3yo"

Place Malice contested 9 races before his BCC effort. WTC likewise contested 9 races before his BCC effort. He finished a close 2nd with his long campaign and PM finished down the track.

Clearly the long campaign is not the reason for his under performance. Check the history of his trainer in the re and it might provide an indicator.

WTC finished ahead of PM in the Derby. Palace Malice turned the tables in the Belmont. It should be noted that WTC contested the Preakness whereas Palace Malice bypassed it.

The rubber match came in the Jim Dandy where PM got home by a diminishing length. WTC turn the tables in the Travers and continued his obvious superiority in the BCC.

Despite these cold facts PM is one forecast to be the dominant 4YO. What am I missing?

"He had bad racing luck at Saratoga in the Travers last year"

He barely won the Jim Deny from a fast closing WTC. I guess his luck was good in that race. Exceptional horses make their own luck and if that isn't possible they find ways to win despite adversities.

re: Can Untapable Be Upset in the Haskell?

Coldfacts — Tue, 29 Jul 2014 13:52:09 GMT

-Keelerman

I appreciate your more measured comments. Let's compare Palace Malice to another talented horse conditioned by Mr. Pletcher

Quality Road started his 2010 campaign with three consecutive victories with one being a NTR in the Donn Handicap. Although he won one less race than PM before the Whitney, the Donn Handicap being a G1 carries more prestige than G3 Westchester & G2 Gulfstream Park Handicap.

After Quality's 3 victories he was viewed as the top dog in the 4YO and older horses category. He was the buzz horse who was expected to clean up all the top handicap races en route to the BCC.

The NY based QR was the ML favorite ahead of the Whitney. He was mowed down by the fast closing Blame close home and was never the same horse thereafter. Not only was he beaten but it appeared his will was broken.

With Mr. Pletcher's horses one can never tell when their performances will suddenly go in the opposite direction. If history repeats itself as it normally does with his horses, Palace Malice will not be one of the top contenders for the BCC.

Palace Malice will not win the Whitney on the front end. He will obviously close off the pace. In his four victories he caught stamina challenged Goldencents, Declan Warrior and a not very sound Normandy Invasion.

In those races he was the only horse that closed effectively to catch the leaders. In the Whitney he will possibly be tracking Lea, Merano, Romanch and Goldencents who are capable of carrying their speed for 9F on the speed favoring surface at the Spa.

If he is capable of getting on terms, he will have to contend with fellow closers WTC, Rivo and Itsmyluckyday. Palace Malice has never won a race where there are genuine 9F leaders and closers.

Good luck with your expectation. He may require a performance similar to that of Lawyer Ron to win.

re: Can Untapable Be Upset in the Haskell?

Rusty Weisner — Tue, 29 Jul 2014 13:33:39 GMT

Keelerman,

I feel the same way about Palace Malice, and it's not just sentiment. His BC showing came after a long, long campaign, and he was still a 3yo, while some people might forget he was still much second-best in the JCGC when Ron the Greek freaked. You'll remember I was wary of him running a mile, and that's a hurdle he cleared impressively. The slow Belmont was proof of his superiority at classic distances of course, because the half was one of the fastest ever, something Coldfacts will never acknowledge. All that said, though I don't think he's a bad bet as the favorite in the Whitney (I don't see any specific vulnerability) I think I'll just be a rooting spectator to the race. He had bad racing luck at Saratoga in the Travers last year and it can always happen again, or someone can step up.

re: Can Untapable Be Upset in the Haskell?

Rusty Weisner — Tue, 29 Jul 2014 13:24:32 GMT

Keelerman, Coldfacts --

That is heartening news about Social Inclusion. I'm curious what signs of an expected turnaround you will look for.

re: Can Untapable Be Upset in the Haskell?

-Keelerman — Tue, 29 Jul 2014 13:00:52 GMT

Major news to report this morning: Social Inclusion has been transferred to the barn of Chad Brown.

re: Can Untapable Be Upset in the Haskell?

-Keelerman — Tue, 29 Jul 2014 02:43:43 GMT

JayJay;

I agree that Alpha is really kind of a stretch for the Breeders' Cup Classic, but I've become a fan of his yearly epic runs at Saratoga and would love to see him participate in a fourth consecutive Breeders' Cup. As for Imperative, I want him in the Classic so that 'Dude can avenge his defeat in the Charles Town Classic. :)

Coldfacts;

Thanks for your thoughts! Those are valid points, but I have the feeling that Palace Malice is going to be even better this summer than he was earlier in the spring, and that we have not yet seen his very best. Three of his four starts this year have come at one mile, a distance that I believe is at least a furlong short of his best, and I'm confident he will relish the extended distances that he will find during the rest of his campaign.

Palace Malice strikes me as a tough-as-nails competitor that thrives on racing, and barring injury, it wouldn't surprise me to see him complete a sweep of the Whitney, Woodward, and Jockey Club Gold Cup, which would give him seven consecutive victories for the year, including four of the most historic grade I races on the east coast. If he does achieve this feat, I believe that his accomplishments this year -- coupled with his Belmont Stakes victory from last year -- would be sufficient to earn him a spot among the greats of the sport. A victory in the Breeders' Cup Classic (a much stiffer challenge, no doubt) could propel him into the stratosphere of superstars.

Granted, this is assuming a lot (actually, more than a lot!), but I really believe that Palace Malice has the potential to be a great horse, and I'm hopeful that he will take another major step toward achieving that status in the Whitney.

re: Can Untapable Be Upset in the Haskell?

Coldfacts — Tue, 29 Jul 2014 02:02:43 GMT

-Keelerman

Palace Malice:

"He will crush the Whitney field in a manner that will establish him as the clear-cut favorite for the Breeders' Cup Classic”

Palace Malice has won 4 races against 4YOs that are not considered to be top class. Goldencents is probably the best he has faced and he has seems to settle for second every time he faces the starter.

On the basis of the competition he has faced, how can you objectively forecast he will crush the 2014 Whitney field?

How good is lea? He has only made two starts for new trainer Bill Mott and the last was a smashing track record over WTC who defeated PM the last two times they met.

Romansh has made two starts at Saratoga and has performed very well in both denoting he likes the surface. He was a late developing 3YO who could have a break out performance at the Spa. The 2013 Travers was his 5th start and he finished a creditable 5th. PM finished 4th with far more foundation. He will be cutting back from 10F to 9F where he should be more competitive.

WTC was defeated by a NTR and a NSR in two his five 2014 starts. He will enter the Whitney off a well deserved 7 weeks respite. His racing career was revived at the Spa subsequent to a rest and the removal of the blinkers. He has made 3 starts at the Spa and has run well on each occasion. He likes the surface and the distance is favorable for him.

Itmyluckyday has not lost since his 2014 debut where he finished 4th to Palace Malice. The Preakness runner-up has had time to mend and base on his 3YO form heading into the TC he is quite capable of springing an upset.

Zivo has won his last 6 starts with his latest victory coming in the Suburban over 10F. How good is this 5YO? No one knows! He was produced from a Quiet American mare. Why is that significant? Try Bernardini and Saint Liam. He will be cutting back from 10F as well.

Moreno has ability but I inconsistent. He finished last in the Met Mile only to rebounce with a fighting 2nd in the Suburban. He should find 9F more favorable. He ran two great races at the Spa in 2013 and this colt could go all the way this time around.

Palace Malice was unplaced in the Derby and won a slowly run Belmont. He was unplaced in the BCC and now he has been transformed into a world beater with potential to be one of the all-time greats.

I cannot recall any Pletcher trained horse that is considered an all-time great.

re: Can Untapable Be Upset in the Haskell?

JayJay — Tue, 29 Jul 2014 01:54:00 GMT

Keelerman : Oh yeah, forgot about Lea. I'm actually excited about Moonshine Mullin as well, I think he's a legit top horse...not so much about Alpha and Imperative.

I'm happy to hear that Luis got the mount back. I don't normally predict winners but I'm predicting now, today, that WTC wins the Whitney easily. I'll say a widening 3 lengths, galloping home in 1:47 and change ! hehe

Coldfacts : About the only thing we agree on is how Ranagulzion gets all googlyeyed with horses who wins by many lengths without taking anything into account.

I do have to wonder about your comment on Bayern and I will quote you :

" He has not defeated any of the top 3YOs in the country and when he had the opportunity he was a no show. "

That is basically what I said about Kid Cruz but that wasn't acceptable to you. Yet you say the same thing about Bayern, your friend said "arguably", he didn't say he IS the top 3YO.

re: Can Untapable Be Upset in the Haskell?

Coldfacts — Tue, 29 Jul 2014 00:38:51 GMT

"Now Bayern has come to hand, and in his two last outings appears arguably to be the best 3YO in America right now.”

My knowledgeable fellow contributor you are certainly true to form. You have a tendency to rush to judgments after certain performances.

On the May 17th Bayern finished 9th in the Preakness against some top 3YOs. Three weeks later he romped in the Woody Stephens. A further 7 weeks later he romps in the Haskell and based on those two performances he has elevated himself to the level of best 3YO in the country.

The Belmont was contested on the same day as the Woody Stephens. Bayern bypassed the marathon for the easier 7F, G2 contest. Wow! I wonder how he would have fared.

Any Given Saturday destroyed Derby runner-up Hard Spun and Preakness winner & Belmont runner-up Curlin in the Haskell. His 5L Victory must have indicated he was the top 3YO in the country. History indicates he was the #5 ranked colt at best despite his smashing victory in the Haskell.

My learned contributor I caution you to be more measured in your assessment of Bayern as he is a nice colt but certainly not the top 3YO in the country. He has not defeated any of the top 3YOs in the country and when he had the opportunity he was a no show.

Social Inclusion:

“1) He might have needed the race going into the Haskell”

Are you remotely aware that both Bayern and SI were on the same two race schedule ahead of the Haskell i.e., Preakness and Woody Stephens. Bayern didn’t appear to need the race. That excuse will not fly.

"4) He always appeared to be a more imposing and talented colt than Bayern but may have needed a bit more time being a May foal, therefore he can freak-perform at any time now."

Are you remotely aware that Lookin At Lucky, Hard Spun and Palace Malice are May foals. None of the aforementioned three recorded a track record in their 2nd start.

Social Inclusion problems do not rest with his foaling month. He is surrounded by clowns and they have transformed him into one. He is certainly attired like one on race days. I would suggest that you leave that colt alone until he is placed in the hands of a competent conditioner.

re: Can Untapable Be Upset in the Haskell?

-Keelerman — Mon, 28 Jul 2014 23:42:50 GMT

JayJay;

It's never too early to start projecting who might run in the Breeders' Cup Classic, if not simply because it's fun! I would love to see Lea, Imperative, Alpha, and Moonshine Mullin in the Classic as well, although that would put us past the fourteen-horse limit for the race... :)

re: Can Untapable Be Upset in the Haskell?

-Keelerman — Mon, 28 Jul 2014 23:19:31 GMT

Rusty Weisner;

That is a funny comment from the result chart! I hadn't noticed it before!

The chart caller at the NYRA is truly amazing. The detail that he packs into the footnotes is fantastic! A tidbit like that can be very useful if one wasn't aware that Wicked Strong is typically washy during the warm-up.

re: Can Untapable Be Upset in the Haskell?

-Keelerman — Mon, 28 Jul 2014 23:10:44 GMT

Ranagulzion;

Terrific thoughts! I still believe that Social Inclusion will win a major stakes race someday, but I also believe that he will need the right circumstances in order to do so. In my opinion, he isn't as effective tracking the pace as he is setting or pressing it, and if this is the case, then his trip in the Haskell really wasn't ideal. Someday, I think he will find a graded stakes race in which he can easily establish command while setting moderate fractions, and from there, I believe the Social Inclusion of Gulfstream Park will return. Perhaps the Donn Handicap next February would be a good long-term target!

As for the Whitney, I believe that Palace Malice is ready for revenge against Will Take Charge, and that he will crush the Whitney field in a manner that will establish him as the clear-cut favorite for the Breeders' Cup Classic. Actually, I believe he is on the verge of a summer/fall campaign that will propel him into the ranks of the all-time greats... although with that said, I have grown fonder and fonder of Game On Dude with every passing season, and I've got my fingers crossed that the fourth time will be the charm for him in the Breeders' Cup Classic!

re: Can Untapable Be Upset in the Haskell?

-Keelerman — Mon, 28 Jul 2014 22:47:59 GMT

Is anyone in the mood to watch some of the best racing in England? If so, you'll be happy to know that the "Glorious Goodwood" meet begins on Wednesday!

Here's the link to my latest blog post, analyzing the group I Sussex Stakes on opening day: cs.bloodhorse.com/.../kingman-vs-toronado-at-glorious-goodwood.aspx

re: Can Untapable Be Upset in the Haskell?

Brontexx — Mon, 28 Jul 2014 20:24:50 GMT

Blog characters and writers that assume other identities today was the best in the money finishes for Pletcher,Brown and Mclauglin who might have broke out of the slump.

Pletcher 2 starters 2 1sts Brown 1 starter 1 1st and Mclaughlin 1 starter 1 2nd. The total 4 starters 100% 1st 2nd.

Good luck to all.