Palace Malice Headlines Huge Saturday of Racing

re: Palace Malice Headlines Huge Saturday of Racing

JayJay — Sun, 10 Aug 2014 05:33:05 GMT

Brontexx : lol, I was not trying to use your handicapping at all as I don't rely on trainers that much. I come here to see if anyone posts a horse they like that I didn't look at and to see their comments about the horse. I always make my own decision on who to bet, the only time I ask is when I'm totally confused on the race.

I'm sorry if my questions made you feel you were defending your handicapping, I thought you introduced BPM to the blog as your way of unlocking winners but you didn't really explain how it all works so I was curious because at first glance, there's really not much to handicap on trainers but it peaked my curiosity when you picked 3 specific trainers who almost always have the top horses so I wanted to see what the angle was...I still am not sure what it is but like you said, you don't have to defend it or explain it.

re: Palace Malice Headlines Huge Saturday of Racing

Brontexx — Sat, 09 Aug 2014 21:35:40 GMT

JayJay I think you should stick to your methodology of play and forget about mine.I dont need to defend mine and I wont.

re: Palace Malice Headlines Huge Saturday of Racing

JayJay — Sat, 09 Aug 2014 02:03:02 GMT

Brontexx : A printer or paper isn't a living thing, a horse is. A jockey who is in contact with the horse when it's racing has far more impact to the horse than the trainer. A jockey who stays on the same horse has a better understanding of how the horse is than his trainer. The only person that actually has more insight on the horse besides the two are the handlers, the people that walks, feeds and takes care of the horse.

It's not rocket science to figure out the top trainers so I'm not really sure how much more handicapping you need to do with a trainer angle.

" those delegated to do their jobs do it well and he gets credit for it but it is A TEAM EFFORT and to be at the top of the trainers standing you need a good team. "

So if you are handicapping on one part of the "team" (the trainer), how is it any different than handicapping the jockey, or the person that actually takes care of the horse, the veterenarian, the owner...they're all part of the team.

Anyway, I'm not trying to put down your handicapping, I was just curious as to how you determine a winner. It seems in the end you guess which race their horses will hit the board, I don't see any formula that tells you which race they will have a high percentage of hitting the board but maybe I'm missing it.

re: Palace Malice Headlines Huge Saturday of Racing

Brontexx — Fri, 08 Aug 2014 13:16:14 GMT

JayJay . To me, the jockey is 30% of the race, whereas the trainer is probably 5 or 10%. They only help with the conditioning, they don’t really spend time with the horse unless it’s Chrome or Wise Dan or the trainer has very few horses.

JayJay do you think a CEO of a printing company takes of his suit and tie and gets dirty in trying to fix a key printer when it goes down of course not.

The trainers run a busines and the results are their win percentages money won etc it dosent matter how much time Pletcher actually spends with each horse he runs an efficient business and those delegated to do their jobs do it well and he gets credit for it but it is A TEAM EFFORT and to be at the top of the trainers standing you need a good team.

re: Palace Malice Headlines Huge Saturday of Racing

Brontexx — Fri, 08 Aug 2014 13:06:00 GMT

By following the trainers you will learn a lot from a different perspective than trying to abstract from the PPs in essence trying to predict the future from the race shape ETC.

re: Palace Malice Headlines Huge Saturday of Racing

Brontexx — Fri, 08 Aug 2014 13:04:27 GMT

I meant to write NW2L

re: Palace Malice Headlines Huge Saturday of Racing

Brontexx — Fri, 08 Aug 2014 13:04:02 GMT

JayJay what you have to figure out is MSW and NX1 and dropping in class, for the trainers you follow because that is the life blood of trainers like Brown Pletcher and Mclauglin.

A trainer like Amoss makes a lot of loot at small tracks dropping into NW2 after running the same horses in allowance races at tracks like Churchill and fairgrounds.

re: Palace Malice Headlines Huge Saturday of Racing

Brontexx — Fri, 08 Aug 2014 13:00:49 GMT

JayJay In 2010when I played full time I kept a notebook with all the starters of the trainers I follow but I dont want to play full time now so I dont have a notebook.I can tell you that ALL TRAINERS NOMATTER who they are win at a higher percentage in the lower classes in the case of the stakes barns MSW and NX1.Their can be exceptions to this of course but I would venture to state that it is rare and might only last a few months a year etc.

re: Palace Malice Headlines Huge Saturday of Racing

JayJay — Fri, 08 Aug 2014 00:23:36 GMT

Coldfacts : I replied regarding your last post to me, I provided your bet in the Kentucky Derby. Now, can you post the difference between your evaluation and handicapping so there's no confusion. Like I said, you post on just about every horse, might help to clarify how you actually handicap. Otherwise, just say you bet every horse you talk about so that when you say "I got the exacta, trifecta and superfecta", no one can question it. There's no shame in buying races if you have the money to do it.

re: Palace Malice Headlines Huge Saturday of Racing

Brontexx — Thu, 07 Aug 2014 22:22:49 GMT

senor' Coldfacts Thoroughbreds are bred for speed and endurance. To equate the times they record to times spent in incarceration is ludicrous. It is unlikely that a prison sentence will be equivalent to the time it takes to completed any leg of the TC.

After long thought I would have to agree but while we have moved from the saying time only matters when your in jail to comparisons for completion of the TC.

If the government ever catches KY Vet he will be reading your posts from a prison cell and then time will definitely be an issue for this criminal.

re: Palace Malice Headlines Huge Saturday of Racing

JayJay — Thu, 07 Aug 2014 20:57:36 GMT

Keelerman : The east coast bias is still in effect in my opinion. If voting were held today, WD would be the HOTY, just like he won it last year. Keep in mind that last year, GoD was undefeated going into the Classic and all are dirt races, WD won all his races on Turf. If CC doesn’t win another race this year, it would be WD that wins it.

It’s too early to say how Chrome will run, or how the injury affected him. He’s a young 3YO and it’s quite possible the injury affected the way he runs. Hopefully, he’ll have matured during his time off and recovery and that he’ll come back more professional. I think he’ll be a force if he continues to improve, it’s going to be a very exciting Classic with PM, WTC, SB, Moreno, GoD all pointing to the same race. I’m already booking my flight and hotel :)

Brontexx : I use a lot of jockey angles but please don’t get me wrong, I don’t rely on the jockey alone, that would be ridiculous. To me, the jockey is 30% of the race, whereas the trainer is probably 5 or 10%. They only help with the conditioning, they don’t really spend time with the horse unless it’s Chrome or Wise Dan or the trainer has very few horses. If you asked me how much time Todd or Chad spends with their horses, I would tell you they don’t because they have so many horses in their care they have people attend to them unless it’s a high profile horse. They just don’t have the time. They win a lot because they already get the good horses, all they have to do is work them out. They have some horses that will win regardless of who trains them but they happen to end up in Todd’s barn most of the time. Do you have the percentages of BPM for stakes races compared to maiden/claiming/allowance races ?

There are other things I use in combination to make my picks. Before I do my jockey angles, I look at the field, the type of race and maybe the track condition. I then look at the odds and jockey to make my picks. I only asked about the market because I don’t know if people will take to that kind of report, just saying, before you invest time and money, it’s probably wise to see if it’s worth it. I really hope you’re not testing it on the blogs because you’re not going to get valid numbers.

re: Palace Malice Headlines Huge Saturday of Racing

-Keelerman — Thu, 07 Aug 2014 19:19:51 GMT

But of course, for Wise Dan to earn a third Horse of the Year title, he will have to retain supremacy over the rest of the talented turf milers in this country, several of which will be running on Friday and Saturday!

Here's the link to my latest blog post, analyzing the Fourstardave Handicap and the National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame Stakes: cs.bloodhorse.com/.../turf-milers-take-center-stage-at-saratoga.aspx

re: Palace Malice Headlines Huge Saturday of Racing

-Keelerman — Thu, 07 Aug 2014 19:17:33 GMT

Secreteriat;

Thanks for your thoughts on Horse of the Year! I agree that Wise Dan and Will Take Charge probably have an edge. I've got my fingers crossed that Wise Dan will achieve a historic three-peat, becoming only the third horse in U.S. history to win Horse of the Year three times in a row. That would be amazing!

re: Palace Malice Headlines Huge Saturday of Racing

Coldfacts — Thu, 07 Aug 2014 15:06:56 GMT

"No one including myself knows how these 3yos will turn out as older horses."

The statement is fair. It is therefore premature to conclude that the 2014 3YO crop is weak.

On the subject of time, if they have no significance, why are they recorded?

Thoroughbreds are bred for speed and endurance. To equate the times they record to times spent in incarceration is ludicrous. It is unlikely that a prison sentence will be equivalent to the time it takes to completed any leg of the TC.

re: Palace Malice Headlines Huge Saturday of Racing

Brontexx — Thu, 07 Aug 2014 12:54:06 GMT

Secreteriat If what you write will happen

Los Alamitos is writing a one mile race for him to prep for the Breeder's Cup.

CC will probably not be running in the Breeders Cup Classic.

It reminds me of Gulfstream writing the Timely Writer at 1 1/16 for Uncle Mo in 2011 and we all know why Mo ran in such an easy prep.Eventhough CC has run 10 furlongs before the pace in this years KD was pedestrian set by Uncle Sigh.If it is a good field in the Classic I wont have CC on top in vertical exotics if he decides to run in that race.

re: Palace Malice Headlines Huge Saturday of Racing

Secreteriat — Thu, 07 Aug 2014 00:57:25 GMT

California Chrome will not run in the Pacific classic.

Los Alamitos is writing a one mile race for him to prep for the Breeder's Cup. Shared belief will run in the Pacific Classic, the Awesome Again and the Breeders Cup. There is a $ million bonus for any horse that win all three. Can Shared Belief beat Game on Dude twice?? maybe but unlikely. Time will tell. My votes for H.O.Y are Will Take Charge or Wise Dan 2014 the year of the "W"

re: Palace Malice Headlines Huge Saturday of Racing

Little Bill — Thu, 07 Aug 2014 00:08:28 GMT

Whata Maroon.

re: Palace Malice Headlines Huge Saturday of Racing

Brontexx — Wed, 06 Aug 2014 22:08:43 GMT

Coldfacts thanx for your opinion on this years 3yo crop.The Belmont was the strongest race of the TC and not all the best three 3yos ran in the KD and the Preakness.Time as they say only matters when your in jail.The times recorded are all relative and No one including myself knows how these 3yos will turn out as older horses.

Now for BPM ziltch for BPM how much did I bet nada so BP suffered thru an ofer 4 day I stopped even watching the race after two of those races.

re: Palace Malice Headlines Huge Saturday of Racing

KY VET — Wed, 06 Aug 2014 21:36:22 GMT

delmar wp #1 saterical race 2

re: Palace Malice Headlines Huge Saturday of Racing

KY VET — Wed, 06 Aug 2014 21:27:58 GMT

steady, checked 3 times....great ride.... not! jose lezcano!....still got 2nd!.....jockeys!!!!!!!!!!!....sar #2 2nd.......didnt lose money, but lezcano cost me 700

re: Palace Malice Headlines Huge Saturday of Racing

KY VET — Wed, 06 Aug 2014 21:11:32 GMT

saratoga race 10....#2 sole train....best play of day at saratoga....wp..200wp

re: Palace Malice Headlines Huge Saturday of Racing

KY VET — Wed, 06 Aug 2014 19:51:48 GMT

sick at home....random races im betting online.....del race 6....wp #7 Texas zip.......

re: Palace Malice Headlines Huge Saturday of Racing

Coldfacts — Wed, 06 Aug 2014 13:26:18 GMT

Was the 2014 3yo crop relatively weak in regards to the Triple Crown?

To answer the above question, one must determine the crop’s weakness in relation to which previous 3YO crops?

Some of the more talented 3YOs were either injured or had issues before the Derby i.e., Top Billing, Constitution, Honor Code, Tonalist and Shared Belief.

Regarding the TC, the final time for the Derby was disappointing. However, the final time for the Preakness and Belmont were the fastest in the last 6 and 11 renewals respectively.

The cold facts do not support a conclusion that the 2014 3YO crop are relatively weak.

re: Palace Malice Headlines Huge Saturday of Racing

Brontexx — Wed, 06 Aug 2014 11:33:02 GMT

Pedigree Ann I dont keep tabs on CC my statement regarding the Pacific Classic though silly to you was an example.He might be able to beat a race of older horses solely from the West Coast but not a field of older horses from the entire country and or the world.

I never wrote I was impressed by the Florida horses but what I did write was that this 3yo crop was relatively weak in regards to the Triple Crown.I hope that clears it up for you or will you find another opening in my remarks to state that you know betta than me.I look for my results when I bet I dont own any horses nor do I plan on buying any.

re: Palace Malice Headlines Huge Saturday of Racing

Pedigree Ann — Wed, 06 Aug 2014 08:23:54 GMT

Brontexx - Chrome is still recovering from the INJURY he suffered at the start of the Belmont. He won't be back racing at the earliest until late September, so speculating about what he might do in the Pacific Classic is silly. Anyway, Sherman knows better than to run a horse at 10f off a layoff without a prep.

Unlike you, I was never impressed with the Florida horses because of the nature of the Gulfstream surface. Have ANY of the hotshots - Wildcat Red, Social Inclusion, General A Rod - done anything since they shipped north? Except back up in the stretch?