Will Magician Win the Arlington Million?

re: Will Magician Win the Arlington Million?

Brontexx — Mon, 18 Aug 2014 23:24:10 GMT

BTW JayJay you of the jockey angle it didnt hurt to have the leading rider(money won) up on Small World Irad Ortiz Jr, if you recall I mentioned him before on a day he got me two winners in the only two races I played him(2yos) and his trainer.

re: Will Magician Win the Arlington Million?

Brontexx — Mon, 18 Aug 2014 23:17:14 GMT

I just realized wrote deluded meant diluted

re: Will Magician Win the Arlington Million?

Brontexx — Mon, 18 Aug 2014 23:16:36 GMT

BPM updated over last three days aint the same as the first part of the meet but that is a normal occurrence. Brown 13-4-1-0 made a mistake before I added his Arlington Saturday starters.

Pletcher 21-1-6-1 if you were a weekend warrior and relied on Pletchers whole meet stats for the Spa you would have been relying on misinformation.

Mclaughlin 11-3-2-1 thats 27% win percentage, but yesterday I imagine his stable made good money if its true they bet on his runners.The record at the Spa yesterday 4-2-0-0 and the odds on the winners 17-1 and 7.90-1 of course these odds were slightly deluded as he ran two starters in two different races and you gotta play both in some way,at least in the WPS pools.But I knew Small World a filly stretching out in distance on the turf in a msw and in her 4th career start and she was on the rail that was a bargain at 17-1.If you didnt know he gets a lot of fillies and mares that stretch out their speed with distance, and with her breeding B. f. 3 (Apr)

Sire : A.P. Indy (Seattle Slew) $150,000

Dam: Well Related (Quiet American)

Brdr: Darley (KY)

This type of breeding does not beget many precocious types but horses that gain condition and improve as the distances get longer,but I didnt have to tell you that this is a Bloodhorse blog,GL to all.

re: Will Magician Win the Arlington Million?

Brontexx — Mon, 18 Aug 2014 21:43:44 GMT

Btw Brown won the last race as the favorite.

re: Will Magician Win the Arlington Million?

Brontexx — Mon, 18 Aug 2014 21:43:09 GMT

My bad Mclaughlin record this week only at the Spa 10-3-1-1.Check out his record now at Equibase you would have never known he was ofer 9 to start this is not the first time I have seen him gain momentum as the meet progresses but the first I remember such a bad start.He has won 3 stakes races and outta the 5 winners he has 3 came this week.Two graded stakes and the Alydar yesterday.As long as he gives Darley and Goldolphin female graded stakes winners on the NYRA circuit his job is safe to the chargrin of his detractors.

re: Will Magician Win the Arlington Million?

Brontexx — Mon, 18 Aug 2014 21:29:19 GMT

TnT tread lightly with BPM as the trainers are near the end of the condition book.I have noticed Pletcher in particular over his last 20 starts here is his record

20-1-6-1 he still has an entrant in the 10race at Saratoga today.Brown over the last three days is

15-3-3-0 and if you didnt bet Mclaughlin yesterday you missed his best play Small World at 17-1 in the fist race at the Spa.Coldfacts seems to downgrade Mclaughlin and then in the next day or two he has good day.He is 11-2-1-1 but those two wins came yesterday.He also had a good winner on Friday he has quietly made a positive move this week with 3 winners.

re: Will Magician Win the Arlington Million?

Secreteriat — Mon, 18 Aug 2014 18:15:13 GMT

Rusty,

My son is GM at the Ackerly Bros Farm. He manages the horse purchases, sales, and breeding operations for them.

I personally do not have ownership.

re: Will Magician Win the Arlington Million?

Rusty Weisner — Mon, 18 Aug 2014 15:13:47 GMT

Secreteriat,

Congratulations! Refresh my memory -- what's your stake in the horse(s)?

re: Will Magician Win the Arlington Million?

Rusty Weisner — Mon, 18 Aug 2014 15:02:50 GMT

Coldfacts,

Great call on Hardest Core. Here's something else everyone missed: the horse was entered in the St. Leger and scratched out for the Million.

I'm glad I was otherwise indisposed and couldn't be tempted to play: turf cards are hard enough, but that one sounded impossible.

re: Will Magician Win the Arlington Million?

TnT — Mon, 18 Aug 2014 14:52:21 GMT

congrats winners to saturday

broke even thanks to euro chatline

Is the BPM on today, like a couple of them today.

re: Will Magician Win the Arlington Million?

Secreteriat — Sun, 17 Aug 2014 17:43:00 GMT

Coldfacts,

Thank You,

The horse is happy this morning came out of the race well.

Rosie told Steve that the 8 horse was leaning in on him on the turn and she had to use a little earlier that she wanted to. He would have won much easier if he was not sandwiched between the 6 and the 8 and will bget better as they go longer. Steve is taking him back to Churchill and find an easier spot for him there. he does not want to squeeze the lemon too soon like Srong mandate last year. I will keep you posted.

re: Will Magician Win the Arlington Million?

Brontexx — Sun, 17 Aug 2014 16:14:10 GMT

Goldolphin with Mclaughlin dont press their first time starters and as stated its not easy winning MSW races at a 40 meet like Saratoga.The success Mclaughlin does have with first time starters are in much easier races on the NYRA circuit.BTW the last time that I remember Mclaughlin sending a 1st time starter to win at the Spa that was a colt was Alpha who runs today.He does get a lot more fillies that win their first race that pad his 1st time starter stats than colts.Those stats are not provided in either the PPs or free on equibase.

re: Will Magician Win the Arlington Million?

Brontexx — Sun, 17 Aug 2014 14:12:49 GMT

Percentages are compiled long term but trainers ALL of them experience good days and bad days so to rely on long term percentages is a Fallacy.

Mclaughlin has ONLY won 3 races at the SPA all of them were female horses and two were graded stakes winners.

re: Will Magician Win the Arlington Million?

Coldfacts — Sun, 17 Aug 2014 14:05:09 GMT

Secreteriat,

Congratulations are in order. The colt showed the sort of fight one likes to see in a thoroughbred. I am still of the opinion he will be better going longer. I am sure Mr. Ammussen knows best.

To win a 2YO race at Saratoga is a significant achievement but to do it against a horse conditioned by the King Of Saratoga is icing on the cake. I wish you and the connection continued success in what we all know is a tough game

Regarding the eventual race favorite, he was a loser before the gates opened. Upon seeing the colt I turned to a friend and stated that he looked awful. How a horse from such a big and powerful stable could be presented so poorly baffles the mind. Was his groom asleep on the job?

When a horse is placed in Godolphin's famous blue silks if it does not run the part it should at least look the part.

The colt ran much better than it looked and it must have a lot of ability. He has a significant turf pedigree on the dam side but his action is not that of a turf horse.

re: Will Magician Win the Arlington Million?

Coldfacts — Sun, 17 Aug 2014 13:59:58 GMT

Brontexx,

Hardest Core PP's suggested he would improve significantly if removed from Mr. McLaughlin stable.

I know this might appear after the fact but his two previous efforts over 10F were very completive. His 4th & 5th starts were over 10F and that's a rarity in the US. He won one and finished a close 2nd in the other. His 6th start was over 9.5F where he closed 10L of the leader to win. These were starts as a 3YO.

With 9 months to grow into his big frame and the routing ability he showed as a 3YO, it is not surprising that he came back bigger, stronger and better as a 4YO.

What impressed me the most about him was his return race at Parx. He uncurled some ground devouring strides at he top of the stretch to pull away from his opponents impressively. He appear extremely big for a Hard Spun and had the look of a G1 animal.

If Wicked Strong wins the Travers Hard Spun would probably be the first stallion to sire the winner of the Million and the Travers in the same season.

Hard Spun never won a major G1 race over a distance of ground but is certainly proving to be the best stallion of the big 4 from the 3YO class of 2007.

(Street Sense, Curlin, Any Given Saturday & Hard Spun)

re: Will Magician Win the Arlington Million?

Coldfacts — Sun, 17 Aug 2014 13:31:48 GMT

Secreteriat,

Congratulations are in order. The colt showed the sort of fight one likes to see in a thoroughbred. I am still of the opinion he will be better going longer. I am sure Mr. Ammussen knows best.

To win a 2YO race a Saratoga is a significant achievement but to do it again a horse conditioned by the King Of Saratoga is icing on the cake. I wish you and the connection continued success in what we all know is a tough game

Regarding the eventual race favorite, he was a loser before the gates opened. Upon seeing the colt I turned to a friend and stated that he looked awful. How a horse from such a big and powerful stable, be presented so poorly baffles the mind. Was his groom asleep on the job?

When a horse is place in Godolphin's famous blue silks if it does not run the part it should at least look the part.

The colt ran much better than it looked and it must have a lot of ability. He has a significant turf pedigree on the dam side but his action is not that of a turf horse.

re: Will Magician Win the Arlington Million?

Coldfacts — Sun, 17 Aug 2014 13:13:02 GMT

I have been repeatedly critical of trainer Kiaran McLaughlin and some have come to his defense highlighting his percentage. That bit of information is fine but is does not take away from the fact that his program produces gross inconsistencies and breakdowns. Sometimes I think he is grossly deficient as a trainer.

Can any one name one horse under his keep and care that has shown ability that didn’t get injured and MIA for long periods?

An example of his deficiency that was on display at Saratoga on Saturday. Baratti contested the 5th race off a 5 months respite. The colt was literally pulled at the top of the stretch. How is it possible for horse to be off for 5 months and return to run one of the worst races of his career?

The colt has a very high leg action and appears to be a turf type. Despite this obvious fact it has never been tried on either turf or synthetic. However, its allowed to struggle on a surface that clearly does suit its action. I could be wrong about the colt but at least try something different.

If owned that colt what exactly could a trainer tell me after 5 months evaluate and chart a new course to get the colt to perform at its best?

he would hear Donald Trump's favorite words - You are fired!

Kiaran McLaughlin was the former trainer of 2014 Arlington winner Hardest Core. Like all Mr. McLaughlin’s horses, the gelding appear to have sustained an injury that required it being away for a long period and in his case, 9 months. Unlike Baratti when Hardest Core returned from his respite he rolled off 2 impressive victories leading to his winning effort in his first G1 attempt against a small by quality field.

Under Mr. McLaughlin keep and care the gelding would not have been directed to the 2014 Arlington Million. He probably would not have contested a 12F race 16 days after an 8.5F race either. It is unlikely that he would have won as under Mr. McLaughlin program 33 days would not be enough time to recover from a 12F race to contest a tough G1 over 10F against seasoned turf horses from Europe.

Percentages can be boasted by having a large stable. If said percentages are used solely to assess the quality of trainers, important deficiencies in their programs that are not expressed in percentages are sadly missed.

re: Will Magician Win the Arlington Million?

Brontexx — Sun, 17 Aug 2014 13:11:23 GMT

BTW before they ran the Million I looked at the will pays and if Magician wins the pick 4 would have paid over $600 and the blogs ticket would have won the bet but lost money imagine all that trouble to lose money

$720-$690. If Real Solution wins the payoff was over $900 again whats the logic of betting 700 to win 900.

In regards to Hardest Core he was the only runner in ALL four of the races coming into the race with a three race winning streak so Im sure his connections werent that surprised as the betting public seemed to be.

re: Will Magician Win the Arlington Million?

Pedigree Ann — Sun, 17 Aug 2014 10:16:27 GMT

Oops, missed a bet I should have made. Was greatly impressed by Euro Charline's races on 'the mainland' (what Northern Irish call the island of Britain), but didn't bet. Didn't even THINK of betting last night (had to stay up almost to midnight). Strange. Guess was too tired to think of it.

As to the Million winner, this is what I sent to a fellow pedigree geek after he won the stakes at Delaware:

First thing I noticed is that his sire's second dam AND his own second dam were half-sisters to Belmont winners, Little Current and High Echelon, respectively. No wonder he could handle 12f. Not to mention Turkoman and Roberto close up.

I won't say it was a shame, because there were too many sprinting stallions around even then, but it must have been a disappointment to many at how bad a stallion Housebuster turned out to be. Although to be fair, he was as much a miler as a sprinter, having won the REAL Jerome, the King's Bishop, the Carter, the Derby Trial, and the REAL Vosburgh. Had a lot of older-type American strains in him, too. Seems he didn't deter the Luquillo strain from getting through to Hard Core.

re: Will Magician Win the Arlington Million?

Brontexx — Sun, 17 Aug 2014 07:15:15 GMT

Coldfacts you needed to make up a pick 4 ticket with Hardest Core on it so the blog could have hit the pick 4,on the otherhand it paid $4327.40 for a $1 ticket and adding Hardest Core to the blogs ticket would have added another number in the last leg the Arlington Million which by checking my previous entry on August 16 at 2:35 PM the ticket would have cost 6x5x6x5=900

The ENTIRE blog could have hit it by betting $900 to

win $4327.40 which is 4.8 to 1 odds which is not really what your looking for.Coldfacts should have convinced the blog that the most they could win was about $5000 and that they should spend half of the $900 dollars which would be $450 on a win bet on Hardest Core that would have netted $5625 and if the blog hit the pic 4 with the other $450 they had a chance to get more than 10-1 on their money for a bet that is hard to hit and when it isnt it dosent pay that much because at least two favorites win.Coldfacts would have netted the blog 11.50 to 1 in only one race and then other bloggers wouldnt have to try and ridicule him with coded submissions.GL to all

re: Will Magician Win the Arlington Million?

JayJay — Sun, 17 Aug 2014 05:19:29 GMT

Coldfacts : Nice pick on the 1 horse for the Arlington, hope you loaded up on him on the WIN and Exacta.

Secreteriat : Congrats on your horse winning, that must've been a thrill specially for your son who was there to see him win. I didn't get to see the race but will watch the replay. I'll keep an eye on him and hopefully he makes it to the TC trail !

re: Will Magician Win the Arlington Million?

-Keelerman — Sat, 16 Aug 2014 22:55:24 GMT

Thanks for the link, Pedigree Ann! I'll check it out!

re: Will Magician Win the Arlington Million?

-Keelerman — Sat, 16 Aug 2014 22:54:44 GMT

Coldfacts;

Fantastic job of handicapping with Hardest Core in the Arlington Million! I hope you had a sizable win wager at 11-!

re: Will Magician Win the Arlington Million?

Pedigree Ann — Sat, 16 Aug 2014 22:16:59 GMT

Keelerman - http://www.nzracing.co.nz/ is where I go for my info. They have great replays, too - hi def, like Kee.

re: Will Magician Win the Arlington Million?

English Pete — Sat, 16 Aug 2014 22:09:14 GMT

Well, on my #2 ticket I was running on to Stephanie's Kitten (plus Alterite and Tannery). Did Dettori think he was on Pegasus? My goodness me. Anyway, my fault because I was keen to oppose the Euros. That Ryan Moore is one terrific jockey, by the way, and I think Euro Charline owes her victory to a sumptuous ride.