An Early Look at the Travers Stakes

re: An Early Look at the Travers Stakes

Floridabred — Sat, 23 Aug 2014 14:32:30 GMT

Thought I would take a later look at this "early look at the Travers". I enjoy reading all the comments (except the cruel hate-talk when it appears). I learn a great, great deal from all of you.

I'm still thinking Wicked Strong catches up to Bayern, but passes him ?, I wonder. I love it when people say "it all depends on how things play out, who goes to the front and who goes with him (or her), how fast they go together, and which closer "has the kick".

I was a hot-walker at Hialeah Park when just a kid. Back around racing again now, and I am enjoying all I am learning.

I'd get a thrill if the Floridabred Wildcat Red won this upcoming King's Bishop race against the favorites, and also against "M-Dan" the 7 furlong specialist".

Wildcat Red has heart and grit and I love to see him duel in the stretch. He goes for it.

re: An Early Look at the Travers Stakes

Pedigree Ann — Sat, 23 Aug 2014 10:11:29 GMT

Interesting horse, Mystery Train. He started out at the least of the 3 tracks in Argentina that run group races, La Plata, winning the local Polla de Potrillos (2000 Guineas-type race), placed in the local Derby but couldn't make any impact on the local 3&up G1. A little more time in 'Jersey' (so to speak), a G2 10f versus elders, and he stepped up to the big leagues in the fall (March-May), winning the historic Gran Premio de Honor and the GP Republica Argentina, the G1 race created for the dirt horses after the Pellegrini went to the turf. A nice finish to his 3yo season for this progressive colt. This will be his first start as a 4yo (Argies turn a year older on 1July) and first since the end of May. Might be a bit too soon - changing seasons (South to North and vice verso) can be a lot harder on horses than changing time zones (East to West, and vice verso). Some trainers won't race South Americans for 6 months or more after they come to the States for that reason. But each horse is an individual...,

re: An Early Look at the Travers Stakes

Pedigree Ann — Sat, 23 Aug 2014 09:40:09 GMT

"He was produced from a Quite American mare. Saint Laim and Bernardini were produced from Quite American mares. He could be a good play at 20-1"

The horse was named Quiet American, not Quite. I'm a big fan of Quiet American mares, since I happen to own one - the lady who ones the farm where I board has two of her own. A paddock full of daughters of QA, and all quite different in looks, although all bays. Hope my 2014 foal (freebie when I bought her) takes after mum, and not his sire, Notional.

re: An Early Look at the Travers Stakes

JerseyBoy — Fri, 22 Aug 2014 16:35:32 GMT

Overbred stallions? Really?

More a case of overbred fiction.

Who is the leading sire in the world?

It is widely believed to be Galileo.

So how many foals does he have in 2014?

According to the Sportingpost, citing Equineline as their source, the number is 197.

This number, of course, excludes mares serviced by him that did not get into foal.

Maybe this ends the nonsense about “overbred” stallions for all time, but I doubt it will.

re: An Early Look at the Travers Stakes

JayJay — Fri, 22 Aug 2014 01:35:23 GMT

Coldfacts : It's amazing how you labeled Tonalist being the best, much better than Chrome but now that he's lost the Jim Dandy, you're starting to find the chips in his armor. Everything you said about the horse when you were glorifying him, all that good stuff, you're saying you didn't take into account the track. Here's a quote :

" The desperation for the 12th TC winner has given rise to blindness. "

Sound familiar ? The desperation to find a better horse than Chrome has given rise to blindness...

re: An Early Look at the Travers Stakes

Coldfacts — Thu, 21 Aug 2014 18:15:38 GMT

No lobe for Mystery Train! His last 3 starts have been over 10F and they have been all victories. How good is he?

He was over raced as a 3YO with 13 starts. He was sire by a grandson of Caro of Winning Color fame. Caro finished 4th in the Arc and it is possible Mystery Train could handle the synthetic.

He was produced from a Quite American mare. Saint Laim and Bernardini were produced from Quite American mares. He could be a good play at 20-1

re: An Early Look at the Travers Stakes

Coldfacts — Thu, 21 Aug 2014 17:15:41 GMT

I was not impressed with the Jim Dandy as it went contrary to all expectation. Not necessarily the result but certainly the race itself. Dead closer Kid Cruz came away with a brief lead from the gates only to relinquish same to MSW winner Legend who was joint leader with Wicked Strong for 6F before eventually finished last. Kid Cruz was close to the leaders and then dropped back to last while under the whip before rallying into 3rd. Both Wicked Strong and Tonalist appeared to be struggling down the stretch with Tonalist laboring on the spot.

After watching the Jim Dandy several times I am of the opinion that neither Tonalist nor Kid Cruz like the Saratoga surface. Wicked Strong appeared more comfortable on it but was not extending the way he did in the Wood and Belmont. I think Wicked Strong will record the best finish of the top three from the Jim Dandy in the travers.

Mr. Speaker is embarking on another turf to dirt experiment. None of the winners of the last 20 renewals of the Travers contested their previous race on turf. He is a multiple graded stakes winner similar to the top 4 and qualifies in the class department. His fast 5/8 work suggests he will be up with the leaders and that will compromise his usual closing kick. He has not been blowing away the competition of turf as most of his victories have been by short margins. I am not one of those who believes he is cable of carving out even a narrow victory transitioning from his preferred surface. I do not trust this experiment and I am prepared for him to doom all my tickets.

Of the three colts from the Curlin only Charge Now has contested a graded race. He finished 7th on sloppy track in the Iowa Derby. However, all have shown they can route. The Curlin was completed in 1.25 second slower than the Jim Dandy contested the following day. Can any of the three improve 5-7L in 4 weeks? I am of the opinion any upset winner will emerge from this group.

I consider Viva Majorca an interesting colt. He was produced from a small book of 60 mares bred by sire Tiago. Interestingly his dam sire Cape Town is also the dam sire of promising Todd Pletcher 2YO Competitive Edge.

Charge Now sired by Tiznow will is definitely be in my wagers. Colonel John sire by Tinzon won the 2008 renewal of the Travers.

I am just waiting to evaluate the PPs before I specify the horse I like best in the Travers(e).

re: An Early Look at the Travers Stakes

Monarchos Matt — Thu, 21 Aug 2014 16:52:02 GMT

Rusty,

I'm also looking at singling Dayatthespa, she looks like lone speed and probably needed her last, and 5-2 would be good enough for me...she's 4-3-1-0 at SAR.

The Woody Stephens looks interesting, with a lot of speed signed on, but I think Wildcat Red can withstand it on the cutback based on his class. Myotisis Dan looks interesting at a price if the pace collapses.

Still working on the Ballerina...

re: An Early Look at the Travers Stakes

Rusty Weisner — Thu, 21 Aug 2014 16:37:07 GMT

Secreteriat, Coldfacts --

No need for me to split the baby. Unless I come up with something better I'll play a Kid Cruz/Tonalist box, for no more than $20. I'm considering singling DayattheSpa in a 50-cent p4.

re: An Early Look at the Travers Stakes

Coldfacts — Thu, 21 Aug 2014 16:06:42 GMT

Secreteriat,

Tonalist best races have been at Belmont Park. It appears he favors the surface. His most impressive race has been over a sloppy track.

If you revisit his efforts at Gulfstream Park, they are not dissimilar to his effort in the Jim Dandy. He appeared to be laboring in the stretch of the JD. He is a far striding colt that is a bit of grinder. In fact Kid Cruz was finishing with more interest than Tonalist after dropping far back after being close to the leaders. He was returning from short rest.

I content a well rested Kid Cruz will turn the tables on Tonalist.

I am of the opinion he is a dangerous single but I wish you all the best.

re: An Early Look at the Travers Stakes

Secreteriat — Thu, 21 Aug 2014 14:35:04 GMT

Coldfacts,

Thank you for your advice, I respect you opinion.

Our connections just retired Valid Expectations.

Google LEADING TEXAS STALLION VALID EXPECTATIONS RETIRED.

He is the all time leading stallion by progeny earnings.

From 13 crops he has sired 43 Stakes winners and 41 stakes placed horses in 13 seasons. I visited the horse several times at the breeding shed here in Texas and at his peak he was bred 100 times a year.

With that in mind I am not worried about Tonalist. The reason I like him best is because of Pleasant Colony on the dam side and I think he will stalk Bayern and overtake him to win. I will stick to singling him in the P3 and use him in a Tri 2-6-7 w 1-2-6-7 w 1-2-7-10

Good Luck.

re: An Early Look at the Travers Stakes

Pedigree Ann — Thu, 21 Aug 2014 14:06:38 GMT

Jersey Boy - the basic English system of stabling and training the horses is so different from the US system that it makes no sense to compare them. In Britain & Ireland, no horses are stabled and trained at a racetrack; their homes are near country areas that have long, straight gallops on which to exercise. They then are vanned to the various tracks on the morning of the race, unless it is more than a few hours away (like near Edinburgh for a Pulborough-trained horse) when they go up the evening before. No course is used for more than a few days at a time - the Royal Ascot meeting being the longest, with 5 consecutive days. This preserves the grass, by letting it grow between meetings. Newmarket has two separate courses, one used in the spring and fall, one during the summer. Graham Motion's New Jersey facility is the closest thing to a Euro-style training center in the US, and it is located in a track-rich area with an appropriate climate. Sending lower-level horses to Chicago to race because a race in the book suits them isn't an option, since travel costs would eat up any earnings.

Did you see what happened to the Santa Anita turf course this year, the first time it ran during the old Hollywood Park meet? The course was dried out and hard from the facts of its location in an inland valley and the end of the Rainy Season (Hollypark got ocean fogs, early and late in the day). The current drought meant that they couldn't water much, either.

Using the same track from early spring to late fall has so far worked only at Woodbine, with its Polytrack main track and WIDE outside turf course, which allows for temporary rails at several locations. The climate on Lake Ontario is pleasant for the horses most of the time during the racing season as well. Belmont has been traditionally closed in the summer because it just gets too hot - it used to only run until mid-June, when Aqueduct, which is closer to the shore breezes, had a meet until upstate (and higher in altitude), cooler Saratoga took over. People may be able to watch under shade or in AC-ed areas, but the horses don't have those options.

re: An Early Look at the Travers Stakes

JerseyBoy — Thu, 21 Aug 2014 12:10:26 GMT

Pedigree Ann:

Good to see you can go to see Australia in Ireland. He is the real deal. But as you said the stallion fees are the main deal with Coolmore. And they are good at it.

The ARC should be a fine race anyway.

I believe that the only way to make US racing as attractive as European racing is to use Belmont Park as the racing headquarters in America. The track is big enough to avoid the bullring style racing. All races run at Saratoga and Aqueduct should be switched to Belmont Park. A retractable cover should be built for the track to prevent the track getting soaked when it rains. Why this does not exist has always been a mystery to me.

If they provided the cover, grass races could be kept on grass. This would attract more European horses and provide larger fields. If we can put retractable roofs on stadiums, we can put simple rugged retractable covers over flat surfaces like racecourses. The cover might pay for itself through billboard style advertising.

It seems that grass racing is also kinder to horses.

I saw the race with postponed. He was impressive, but I did not see the interview.

p.s As I write this, I have just discovered that the height of my chair causes dizziness. Thank you. I have been dealing with problem for 18 months. It is now solved. The doctors could not figure it out.

re: An Early Look at the Travers Stakes

Pedigree Ann — Thu, 21 Aug 2014 09:08:17 GMT

Jersey Boy, I am already making plans to head down to Leopardstown for the Irish Champion in September to get a glimpse of Australia in the flesh. With Taghrooda winning the KGVIQE over the (male) elders and now Australia and The Grey Gatsby running away from them as well, not to mention Kingman in the Sussex, I think we can say this is darn good group of 3yos this year in GB/Ire.

I am disappointed that Australia will not be pointed to the Arc - with his Derby wins behind him, he has shown that 12f holds no fears for him - but the consumers of stallion services are leery of the middle distance horse (11f-13f) these days, deeming them unlikely to get those fast 2yos that the owners want. And Coolmore is all about creating stallion prospects.

Did you see the interview with Luca Cumani after Postponed won the Great Voltigeur, the premier St. Leger trial? He spoke about the necessity of being able to push a horse physically without pushing him too far mentally. Some horses are more fragile mentally than others and require a slower introduction to each level of racing, e.g. Postponed who is a robust physical specimen but a bit tender mentally and had to work through the levels to get used to this racing thing. This is something I think that the 'factory method' trainers like Pletcher, Asmussen, and Baffert sometimes miss with some individual horses, who would do better in a smaller stable with a more hands-on trainer.

re: An Early Look at the Travers Stakes

Brontexx — Thu, 21 Aug 2014 08:31:12 GMT

people might consider these coded submissions in leau of a license to draw cartoons from walt disney.

re: An Early Look at the Travers Stakes

Brontexx — Thu, 21 Aug 2014 08:28:36 GMT

Huckleberry Vet Tio Sam wants you

re: An Early Look at the Travers Stakes

Brontexx — Thu, 21 Aug 2014 08:25:21 GMT

What a blog people where CARTOONS are left unbridled only with imaginary wagers on races that have already passed.Bloggers would you heed the advice of Huckleberry Hound, Tennessee Tuxedo or Wiley Coyote?

The government dosent like its check recipients throwing money at the ponies while the wind whips around that empty cavern of a cranium with half a brain that is minus its prescribed meds.

re: An Early Look at the Travers Stakes

JayJay — Thu, 21 Aug 2014 04:45:37 GMT

After seeing Shared Belief run in the LA Derby, I'm more excited about the Pacific Classic than the Travers. It'd be interesting to see how close he can track GoD, who will probably get his type of race with this field. I don't think Imperative can go with him on synthetic. I'll probably play a Shared Belief, Majestic Harbor and Clubhouse Ride exacta and trifecta box. It'd be awesome if Jerry can win this race with Shared Belief.

Speaking of Jerry, anyone know what happened to Exit Stage Left ? I really like this horse, haven't seen anything about him since he got injured.

re: An Early Look at the Travers Stakes

JayJay — Thu, 21 Aug 2014 03:59:14 GMT

Coldfacts : I think you’ll agree that the Belmont field was a much much tougher field than the Travers and yet, I see you saying not to go head over heels over Tonalist in this race. I remember your posts about how good this horse is and that he's just getting better. What happened ? He was a product of an overbred stallion when he raced at Belmont, doubt that change since then so I’m not sure why you mentioned that…you thought he would win the Jim Dandy easily, he ran well and there’s no indication that he may have been damaged...he's a lightly raced horse…what happened between the Belmont and now that made you jump ship ?

Do you actually keep track of what you post ? It just seems like you contradict yourself and I noticed that you do this to go against the majority. Because in this blog, a lot of people like Tonalist to win, and therefore you had to go against the masses and go against him ? I think KY Vet is right about you, you're a contrarian...

I’m not a fan of Tonalist, not because you like him but because I thought the Belmont was a fluke win and the distance favored him and I’m not sure if he’ll win again but as I’ve mentioned, this is a weak field, specially for a 10F race and he’s the only winner past 9Fs in the race so whether he’s a favorite or not, I have to play him somewhere. I do think that pace will be a big factor with Bayern in the race and that’s why I picked Commanding Curve. I may throw in a ticket with Tonalist on top, he may actually be as good as Chrome or Shared Belief...but my feeling is that he's really a G2 horse...like KC. I hope I'm wrong though, it would be nice to see a lot of G1 3 yr olds in the Classic going against the top older horses.

re: An Early Look at the Travers Stakes

KY VET — Wed, 20 Aug 2014 21:16:22 GMT

loss dmr....4 for 8 +462.....sar race 10 50wp #7 le deluge

re: An Early Look at the Travers Stakes

KY VET — Wed, 20 Aug 2014 21:01:11 GMT

loss...4/7 wins......dmr race 1 50wp#2 rhodium

re: An Early Look at the Travers Stakes

KY VET — Wed, 20 Aug 2014 20:40:20 GMT

sar race 9 50wp #6 storming inti

re: An Early Look at the Travers Stakes

KY VET — Wed, 20 Aug 2014 20:28:13 GMT

correction +662

re: An Early Look at the Travers Stakes

KY VET — Wed, 20 Aug 2014 20:27:24 GMT

saratoga dreamer wins...4 wins out of 6 races.....+562

re: An Early Look at the Travers Stakes

KY VET — Wed, 20 Aug 2014 20:16:43 GMT

loss at del....3/5 60%+377....sar race 8...#10 saratoga dreamer 50wp