Handicapping a Fantastic Travers Day

re: Handicapping a Fantastic Travers Day

-Keelerman — Sat, 30 Aug 2014 02:11:27 GMT

Secreteriat;

Wow!! That sounds great! Thanks for thinking of us! I've contacted the web producers at Bloodhorse.com about the details, and I'll be in touch with you soon!

Thanks again!

re: Handicapping a Fantastic Travers Day

Secreteriat — Fri, 29 Aug 2014 00:16:51 GMT

Keelerman.

I have some fantastic photos from Saratoga my son took two weeks ago I'd like to share with you and this blog's contributors. If I email them to you would you be able to post them on here?

Thanks

re: Handicapping a Fantastic Travers Day

JayJay — Thu, 28 Aug 2014 05:44:41 GMT

Coldfacts: I commented on one sentence from your post to Rusty, I wasn't analyzing your comment to Rusty. I just know that it would take more than just a couple of bloggers to keep you away. I’m not going to join the pity party, because I see right through your posts. If you’re going to question other people’s picks and at times, almost to a level of insult, you should be prepared to be questioned.

LOL, can you post how many times you’ve acknowledged people who picked winners or even acknowledge their opinions (unless you’re preparing to tear it apart, you’re good at that) ?? You acknowledged Rusty’s comments because it favors you and he’s responding to the pity party. I’m not dumb.

BTW, I’m looking forward to your analysis of how Shared Belief, although he's not quite the favorite of the masses so I'm not sure if it's worth your time.

re: Handicapping a Fantastic Travers Day

Rusty Weisner — Wed, 27 Aug 2014 16:17:48 GMT

KY VET,

Thanks!

re: Handicapping a Fantastic Travers Day

Coldfacts — Wed, 27 Aug 2014 14:16:07 GMT

JayJay,

The submission directed to Rusty Weisner was to express my appreciation for his complements. He went to great lengths to highlight why he was impressed with my pre-race analysis.

The comments of the valuable contributor merited an acknowledgement. Do not read beyond that. However, I doubt you capable of same.

re: Handicapping a Fantastic Travers Day

JayJay — Wed, 27 Aug 2014 04:21:08 GMT

I wouldn't worry about Coldfacts not posting and I don't think anyone else should. He's been doing this for much much longer than I have and I started here when Shandler was still the author. He initially said that his previous post was his last post on this blog, then his last post said there will be no more pre-race analysis...I won't be surprised that on the next big race, we'll see his pre-race analysis again.

re: Handicapping a Fantastic Travers Day

KY VET — Wed, 27 Aug 2014 02:12:10 GMT

Rusty w.......i'm the expert, so i will educate you......there WAS a reason tonalist was wide.....after bayern went 3 lengths ahead right out of the gate, tonalist was asked to go a little by his jock......tonalist went alittle faster than jock wanted, so he steered him out to the middle......why? Horses relax much better away from the rail, and/or away from another horse..........relaxing is important........class dismissed.........your welcome!

re: Handicapping a Fantastic Travers Day

TnT — Tue, 26 Aug 2014 22:52:01 GMT

Shared Belief's win reminded me of Dullahan a couple years back, I'll take my chances, though Mike Smith seems unbeatable out west.

WTC is still my number one, also think WS and Tonalist can do better next time, the race did not set up for them.

Pletcher is 0 for 25 in his last 25 races at Saratoga, so I would keep an eye on his horses this week.

Nice French filly in the 2 year old race stakes race tomorrow, good value at 4-1.

Strong Coffee in colts stakes on Thursday, but not at 3-1 without Lasix.

re: Handicapping a Fantastic Travers Day

novembersky — Tue, 26 Aug 2014 20:34:28 GMT

Hi Coldfacts,

Please continue to post! I look forward to reading your in depth analysis of each contendor and non- contendor. Although I will not contribute as I am just learning the art of handicapping, I am sure I am not the only one who also uses this blog as a way to learn from those who break down in detail how they arrive at their selections. I am looking forward to your analysis for this weekend. If you only post your picks the newbies will not be able to learn how to eventually have a more discerning eye..

re: Handicapping a Fantastic Travers Day

Sam Santschi — Tue, 26 Aug 2014 20:31:57 GMT

Just getting around to the blog now. Good one Coldfacts! And as Keelerman said, please do continue to post your analysis. While I don't always agree or, I must admit, understand, it is still helpful.

re: Handicapping a Fantastic Travers Day

English Pete — Tue, 26 Aug 2014 20:24:55 GMT

I missed the weekend's racing as I spent four days at the Belgian Grand Prix (Formula 1) and got home last night. Just wanted to congratulate Coldfacts. Not just on picking VE Day, but for the sound reasoning. Colfacts, I read your post saying you were going to cease your previews. Please don't stop - they are always interesting.

re: Handicapping a Fantastic Travers Day

Rusty Weisner — Tue, 26 Aug 2014 19:26:34 GMT

TnT,

Me, too. Brontexx can't even pick the winner of a race run four years ago.

re: Handicapping a Fantastic Travers Day

Brontexx — Tue, 26 Aug 2014 19:07:44 GMT

TnT if only we could bring back Zenyatta who was regarded as the poly queen by many writers who also self edited her record of 20-16-1-0 as not important because it was on poly.

re: Handicapping a Fantastic Travers Day

TnT — Tue, 26 Aug 2014 18:14:26 GMT

Shared belief looked special on Saturday on poly, hoping he and California Chrome take a lot of money come BC classic. I am totally against both of them.

re: Handicapping a Fantastic Travers Day

-Keelerman — Tue, 26 Aug 2014 17:31:43 GMT

DRF.com has reported that Social Inclusion will miss some time with a tendon injury: www.drf.com/.../social-inclusion-sidelined-tendon-injury

re: Handicapping a Fantastic Travers Day

-Keelerman — Tue, 26 Aug 2014 17:30:35 GMT

Coldfacts;

Don't worry -- your pre-race analyses are always welcome here, and I for one find them very interesting! You did a terrific job this weekend with V. E. Day, and last weekend as well with Hardest Core. You can't stop now -- you're riding a hot streak!

re: Handicapping a Fantastic Travers Day

Rusty Weisner — Tue, 26 Aug 2014 17:12:06 GMT

Coldfacts,

Lighten up. Don't have a pity party. Enjoy it. I was glad to see you call it cold and cash in.

re: Handicapping a Fantastic Travers Day

Rusty Weisner — Tue, 26 Aug 2014 16:01:33 GMT

I just saw the Travers replay. Boy, am I going to miss Tom Durkin - everything from the opening "Presto!" to the final "TOO CLOSE TO CALL!!!" was great. Wicked Strong ran a great race. I didn't take it as a good sign that Tonalist went wide for no reason early.

re: Handicapping a Fantastic Travers Day

Coldfacts — Tue, 26 Aug 2014 15:53:03 GMT

Rusty Weisner,

Many thanks for the complements contained in your 9.40 submission.

In retrospect my 'Elimination' from top spot submission was simply profound.

There will be no future critical pre-race analyses of contenders as it has not resonated with the majority that support this blog. In addition, there are certain contributors to this blog that are relentlessly annoying.

re: Handicapping a Fantastic Travers Day

Brontexx — Tue, 26 Aug 2014 15:40:00 GMT

Ambiguity reigns how about 30-1 or 125-1 and more than one thats exacta pools win pools are for serious horseplayers that put at least 5000 a month in the till

re: Handicapping a Fantastic Travers Day

Rusty Weisner — Tue, 26 Aug 2014 13:40:15 GMT

Coldfacts,

I love your 12:41 "Eliminated!" post. More of this stuff, please. Right on the money with this, this, this and and this:

on Wicked Strong:

"Being upfront with Bayern will be a significantly different experience than the one with MSW winner Legend. This will compromise his chances."

"Bayern appears to be the superior speed in the field but his speed has to be perfectly managed for him to win 10F against top G1 routers. He has never won a race with 126lbs and will carry 8Lbs more than he carried in the Haskell going 1F longer against top class routers."

on Kid Cruz:

"I cannot think of a running strategy that could be employed to get him a victory. If he is close to the pace he will not have his explosive finishing kick. If he drops back he will have too much do against the high cruisers that can kick in the stretch."

on Mr. Speaker:

"He is a classy turf colt that should be kept where he excels."

Now THAT is handicapping.

re: Handicapping a Fantastic Travers Day

Rusty Weisner — Tue, 26 Aug 2014 13:23:18 GMT

Anyone still mocking Coldfacts should realize that it only takes one 20-1 shot, bet with conviction, to make a winning year, and Coldfacts has a few every year. In the last couple months he's had a 9-1 winner in Tonalist and now V.E. Day, as well as someone else in there I forgot. Kudos! Ranagulzion, on the other hand, is the kiss of death every year around this time...

re: Handicapping a Fantastic Travers Day

Rusty Weisner — Tue, 26 Aug 2014 13:12:03 GMT

Well, well, well...Congratulations, Coldfacts. That was a masterpiece, one everyone should be obligated to remember for a long time.

I just looked at the chart and it looks like Bayern burned Wicked Strong and Tonalist (opening split :23:50, closing :26:50), but still, it seems it was a race where pedigree was the key to the handicapping puzzle. Also, in hindsight, the Curlin produced three starters in this Travers and should have been taken seriously just on that basis; a case where Beyers, for example, were unhelpful.

re: Handicapping a Fantastic Travers Day

Brontexx — Mon, 25 Aug 2014 23:52:56 GMT

Hey Brontexx put a lid on it 5 posts in a row these screen names and the real people behind them however many there really are dont give a hoot about you or your opinions,you are a degenerate gambler and not a writer like most of us on here.What do you have to say

I dont give a rats a...

re: Handicapping a Fantastic Travers Day

Brontexx — Mon, 25 Aug 2014 23:20:03 GMT

I started with PPs as my main process to win bets but IMO a person can read into something that is read that does not exists.I think a horseplayer should spend at least as much time formulating possible bets as they do going over the PPs.Betting properly is at least 50% of this game.Players should take the PPs and transition into their own angles and find out what it is that works for them.As long as the racing media continues claiming that the PPs are the keys to winning many new players will quit the game and go into something like maybe poker where they have a better chance to win more than they bet.Their is no edge in PPs everyone is looking at the same thing.People like Pete Denk mislead people for their own benefit to sell them picks much like the industry and their writers do to maintain the status quo.I dont visualize this being the same game 20 years from now when all the old timers are gone or a lot older.This game wont attract new fans on the path that it is on.