Racing Returns at Churchill Downs

re: Racing Returns at Churchill Downs

TnT — Thu, 11 Sep 2014 22:03:41 GMT

yay had a tiny win bet on my boy mosler today..........his full brother also sold for 2.2 mil today!!

re: Racing Returns at Churchill Downs

JayJay — Mon, 08 Sep 2014 04:15:52 GMT

Rusty : Yes, never had any doubts about it.

re: Racing Returns at Churchill Downs

TnT — Sun, 07 Sep 2014 21:41:29 GMT

I actually had to go to the rough side of town yesterday to see/bet the iroquois, the big big caribbean bookmakers no longer cover Churchill, bar KD day, since the up in take out.

re: Racing Returns at Churchill Downs

Little Bill — Sun, 07 Sep 2014 19:54:26 GMT

CD don't have slot money. That's the difference.

re: Racing Returns at Churchill Downs

UncleStosh — Sun, 07 Sep 2014 16:16:07 GMT

I just looked a the card for Sunday at Churchill. It has to be the worse card this side of a harness track. Are they serious? Is this really the track that puts on the KD? There are better races and higher purses in Nicaragua.

re: Racing Returns at Churchill Downs

Rusty Weisner — Sun, 07 Sep 2014 14:47:52 GMT

Keelerman,

The odds were interesting; something gave, all right. The herd-like gravitation to Mr. Z. indicated a race where no one knew who to pick.

re: Racing Returns at Churchill Downs

Rusty Weisner — Sun, 07 Sep 2014 14:43:42 GMT

JayJay,

Re Coldfacts: Aahh, things are back to normal. In every respect.

re: Racing Returns at Churchill Downs

TnT — Sun, 07 Sep 2014 12:29:49 GMT

Great Sereteriat ! Hope the BC is next.

I boxed the 8-1 so did not cash in, but was cheering Bold Conquest on,

Hastag B had a rough stretch trip maybe the distance was a bit to far for him, but I will play him next race, he showed all the signs of a guy who wants to win.

re: Racing Returns at Churchill Downs

Secreteriat — Sun, 07 Sep 2014 11:07:06 GMT

Thank You Jay Jay.

That's exactly what Steve told us. He will get better as they go longer and by Derby day he will be bigger, stronger and faster.

re: Racing Returns at Churchill Downs

JayJay — Sun, 07 Sep 2014 06:42:34 GMT

Secreteriat : That was a heartbreaker, I think his post cause him the race as 90% of the field rushed up to the lead and Rosario had to urge him not to lose any more ground after leaving the gate and then having to run pretty much 3 or 4 wide all the way around, he ran an awesome race. Out of all the curlin babies out there, he might be the one that actually follows his dad's footsteps. I'm sorry he didn't get the win but hopefully you guys get another shot at the BC Juvenile race. He's got a really good tactical speed (will probably like the SA track) and he's a fighter in the stretch so I'm excited for you and your son. GOOD LUCK in his next race!

re: Racing Returns at Churchill Downs

Secreteriat — Sun, 07 Sep 2014 01:41:46 GMT

Thank you Keelerman, Pedigree Ann, Jay Jay

We didn't get the win but we know we have the better horse. He proved himself around 2 turns parked outside and already has 2 races at Churchill. 500K Grade 1 Win & you're In Breeders Futurity next at Keenland.

I hope some of you cashed in today.

Steve had the one two finishers and I had the Exacta and the Tri so it was a good day.

re: Racing Returns at Churchill Downs

Little Bill — Sat, 06 Sep 2014 21:17:42 GMT

Lad 11) Victory Nor Defeat. I am also giving Louies Flower chance to run a big one.

re: Racing Returns at Churchill Downs

Pedigree Ann — Sat, 06 Sep 2014 21:16:21 GMT

Many congratulations, Sec. After all the ground he lost, Bold Conquest ran an admirable race.

re: Racing Returns at Churchill Downs

Sam Santschi — Sat, 06 Sep 2014 21:11:10 GMT

What was Bridgemohan thinking while on Cleveland Sound?

re: Racing Returns at Churchill Downs

-Keelerman — Sat, 06 Sep 2014 21:05:30 GMT

Well, it may not have been a victory, but what a run from Bold Conquest in the Iroquois! After getting hung five wide entering the first turn while attempting to track the pace, it looked like Bold Conquest was starting to retreat as the field approached the far turn. But then he unleashed an eye-catching run on the turn to reach contention turning for home, and after a prolonged stretch duel with Lucky Player, he lost by just a neck in an impressive performance. If not for the ground loss, I think he would have won convincingly. Congratulations, Secreteriat! Bold Conquest's effort was one to be proud of!

re: Racing Returns at Churchill Downs

-Keelerman — Sat, 06 Sep 2014 20:57:29 GMT

With two minutes to post time for the Iroquois Stakes, there are a couple of horses whose odds are much higher than I thought they would be. One is Lucky Player, the only horse in the race to have run as far as a mile on dirt. He is currently 16-1, up from 5-1 on the morning line.

The other horse offering surprisingly high odds is Holy Frazier, currently 40-1 off a 12-1 morning line. These prices are probably due in part to the fact that Mr. Z has been bet down to 9-5 (from 5-2 on the morning line) and Danny Boy down to 5-2 (off a 5-1 morning line.)

As I'm typing this, the odds are shifting dramatically -- Lucky Player is down to 11-1, Danny Boy has risen to 4-1, and Mr. Z is now 6-5. Apparently, others are noticing the surprising odds as well! :)

re: Racing Returns at Churchill Downs

Sam Santschi — Sat, 06 Sep 2014 20:48:27 GMT

Cleveland Sound for me.

re: Racing Returns at Churchill Downs

KY VET — Sat, 06 Sep 2014 19:45:15 GMT

WHAT A GENIUS!........PALICE MALICE lasted longer than almost all of the top horses of that years crop! Those poor, poor owners!......is this like the "zenyatta isnt great" posts? She loses by a head......"see! i told you so!"...........WHAT A DUNCE!....STUPIDER.....GETS STUPIDER..............IT'S JUST LIKE.....when lukas was on top........he ruins horses!.....or baffert when he was training big stable, or asmussen, or any super trainer.........you cant understand, its a numbers thing!..........what good is a brain, when you cant use it right?

re: Racing Returns at Churchill Downs

Coldfacts — Sat, 06 Sep 2014 18:23:36 GMT

Iroquois:

Cleveland Sound is an interesting colt. Sometime the pedigree of a horse captures the attention.

The pedigree of the recently retired Palace Malice reflects Royal Anthem as dam sire. The US bred, European raced and based champion is rarely seen as a dam sire for American based horses. Royal Anthem is a tail male descendent of Northern Dancer via Theatrical. The Northern Dancer broodmare line via his tail male descendants has been the most prolific producers of winners of TC races in the last 20 year.

Cleveland Sound’s pedigree reflects Horse Chestnut as dam sire. The South African bred champion is rarely seen as a dam sire in the pedigrees of American bred horses despite his stint in the US. Horse Chestnut is a tail male descendent of Northern Dancer via Fort Wood. Cleveland Sound’s dam line is synonymous with producing top class horses. Is He one?

Despite not being a sprinter he won on debut race over 5F in 58.90 striding out powerfully at the end. His next effort was in the G2 Saratoga Special that saw him occupying last early and closing late with trouble in the stretch. Blocked behind horse and having to switch direction late cost him 3rd at least. The distances of his first two starts were not ideal. However, the 8.5F of the Iroquois will more ideal, thus allowing him to be more competitive.

Cleveland Sound’s dam was unraced and her dam was sired by Deputy Minister who needs no introduction. Historically unraced and lightly race dams are associated with most champions. Cleveland Sound is clearly a router and if he is capable of winning over 5F in 58 .90 he has a lot of class and ability. He was not inexpensive as a yearling purchase as his ticket was signed for $300K.

His trainer Graham Motion is amongst the best conditioners in the business and is known for winning big races at long odds. It is unlikely that he would ship this colt to CD if he wasn’t absolutely sure it would be competitive. Expect him to be doing his best work late and I think he has the ability to prevail.

I like him to upset the in the Iroquois.

re: Racing Returns at Churchill Downs

JayJay — Sat, 06 Sep 2014 17:53:17 GMT

I called it ! I told whoever was worried about Coldfacts going away that it won't take long before he'll be back here posting his race analysis. I told you so !!!!!!!!!!!! :)

Super Derby : I like Announcement in this race, he can go head to head or stay back and I think he'll be rating off of ViT coming from the 11th hole. Nice ML at 12-1. With focus on Jessica and Vicar, they'll forget East Hall who I believe is on par with the top two.

$.20 Super : 1, 11 with 1, 11, 10 with 1, 11, 10, 4, 5 with 1, 11, 10, 4, 5

re: Racing Returns at Churchill Downs

JerseyBoy — Sat, 06 Sep 2014 13:12:15 GMT

If the track is dry, I go with:

-Jessica’s Star in the Super Derby.

-Mr Z in the Iroquois.

re: Racing Returns at Churchill Downs

Coldfacts — Sat, 06 Sep 2014 13:03:58 GMT

The horses below are multiple G1 winners and multimillionaires that were produced from mares sired by Triple Crown winner Affirmed.

Harlan’s Holiday (22 Starts 9-6-1; E: $3.6M)

Pleasantly Perfect (18 Starts 9-3-2; E: $7.8M)

It might be unbelievable to most to known that there are no tail male descendants of the great Triple Crown winner standing in the US. His mares like those of fellow TC winner Secretariat are considered premium in any broodmare band. His remaining active mares must be few in numbers as on very rare occasions a foal pops up on radar with Affirmed as dam sire.

One such foal turned 3YO is Victory Nor Defeat. The colt immediately caught my attention on his debut when I saw he was out of an Affirmed mare. I was very keen to see how he would performed and he did not disappoint as he closed willingly to secure a decisive victory over 7F in a good time of 1:23 1/5. That performance made him a must follow as not only was he out of an Affirmed mare but his sire Unbridled’s Song belonged to an elite group of stallions that had sires 100 or more stakes winners.

After his impressive debut on dirt, he was surprisingly placed in a turf race and was badly beaten. In addition to his poor performance, it appears he suffered an injury as was MIA for 3 months.

Upon his return he scored a determined victory over 8F and was narrowly defeated by the very fast Cee Zee over 6 1/2F a distance way too short for him. Both races were contested at Gulfstream Park. The surface at Gulfstream Park makes winning races from off the pace very difficult. The fact that he has willingly against the speed bias for a victory and a narrow loss, is a testament to the colt's immense ability.

Victory Nor Defeat will enjoy every inch of the 9F Super Derby and with an expected strong pace, the race will set up ideally for him. It appears another good one has been produced by an Affirmed mare. This colt has the pedigree and base on his last two starts, he certainly has the speed and stamina to defeat this field.

I am torn between Victory Nor Defeat and Louisiana Flyboy. I give the edge to the latter as he is undefeated at the track. Despites the credentials of the established starter in the field I believe these two colts are capable of winning.

Louisiana Flyboy is my courageous first choice.

re: Racing Returns at Churchill Downs

Coldfacts — Sat, 06 Sep 2014 12:39:23 GMT

Louisiana Flyboy:

1st start: 08/01/2013 -1st

2nd start: 11/03/2013 – 93 days - 9th

3rd start: 12/22/2013 – 48 days - 2nd

4th start: 02/21/2014 – 60 days - 2nd

5th start: 06/21/2014 – 119 days- 1st

6th start: 08/02/2014 – 41 days - 1st

The above breakdown of the intervals between starts for Louisiana Flyboy suggests two things. He is a very talented colt but one also troubled by unsoundness issues.

He won his first start under the care of Patrick Mouton. He hopped out of the gates and was 12L behind the field early. He displayed tremendous speed to close the deficit and was taken 6W at the top of the stretch and still won by widening 6 3/4L. He erased 12L and added 6 3/4L which equates to an 18 3/4L rally en route to victory. If the lengths lost with his 6W move are included his commanding victory is even more impressive. It takes an exceptionally talented horse to win a sprint race while overcoming such challenges in its first race.

He was switched to Chad Brown for his next 3 starts. Although he finished 2nd twice while under Chad Brown's care, he was beaten a combined 25 3/4L in those 3 races. All 3 starts were at Aqueduct and the colt performances suggested he either disliked the surface or his new handlers.

It is worth noting that his 1st start after being switched to Chad Brown was 93 days after his debut. His next 2 starts for Brown were 48 and 60 day apart. This is a clear indication the colt had issues.

He was retuned to the care of Patrick Mouton and 119 days after his 4th start, he made his 5th start and the 2nd for the initial trainer. He scored a commanding victory in the Lafayette. That was followed by another victory in a similar fashion. Pat Mouton appears to have the Midas tough as he has a 100% win record with this colt in 3 starts.

I am of the opinion that Louisiana Flyboy is the most talented horse in the field. It appears the physical and other issues that have inhibited his progress are behind him. The fact that he will be making his next start in shortest interval of his career (34 days) is an indicator. This spells trouble for the field as this colt has Silky Sullivan like of acceleration.

His sire Fusaichi Pegasus now stand for $7500 a far cry from his initial stud fee as the only Derby winning son of Mr. Prospector. Occasionally one of his progenies flash some of his brilliance. The last to do same was the brilliantly fast Premier Pegasus. Fusaichi Pegasus is no longer covering upwards of 150 mares per year and consequently he should be able to add more quality to his crops.

Louisiana Flyboy has a 100% win record at LAD and that includes two wins a year apart. His 1st start exposed his exceptional talent and should he be fit and well, this chestnut grandson of Mr. Prospector will be rolling in the last furlong.

I think he can get there.

re: Racing Returns at Churchill Downs

JerseyBoy — Sat, 06 Sep 2014 12:12:43 GMT

About Palace Malice.

Curlin has produced 2 graded stakes winners out of 166 runners to date, according to the Bloodhorse Stallion Register.

That is a percentage rate of 1.2%.

One of the two stakes winners is Palace Malice, trained by Todd Pletcher.

Palace Malice has earned $2,676,135. He made 17 starts.

This guy Pletcher must be a magician to produce such an achievement with an offspring of this low-producing stallion.

He also developed siring sensation Super Saver.

Did I say I told you so? I can’t remember.

re: Racing Returns at Churchill Downs

Coldfacts — Sat, 06 Sep 2014 11:54:34 GMT

My deficiency in properly proofreading my submissions was in play again.

Below is a corrected version of an extract from a previous submission.

'It appears many still refuse to acknowledge the history of Todd Pletcher trained horses. Each time one comes to prominence it is placed on a pedestal and a litany of statements driven by unrestrained emotions are posted by knowledgeable folks.'