TimeformUS Weekend Stakes Play - The Grade 2 Super Derby

re: TimeformUS Weekend Stakes Play - The Grade 2 Super Derby

Coldfacts — Sat, 06 Sep 2014 11:47:00 GMT

ebcorde,

VIT has only two paths to victory. He has to be either on or close to the lead. He was in one of thoses respective positions in his last two starts and was beaten. I believe 9F is a shade too long for him. He has to have an uncontested while being tracked by slow horses to win.

His sole victory over 9F came in the LA Derby. The horses that finished 2nd & 3rd were dead closers who lacked sufficient late acceleration to trouble him.

There are several horse with tactical speed who will keep the pace honest and there will be no respite for VIT. If he is able to repel the challenges of fellow high cruisers and stalkers, under no circumstance do I envisage him having enough energy to repel late challenges from the likes of East Hall, Louisiana Flyboy and Victory Nor Defeat.

Rosie is good but she cannot work magic.

re: TimeformUS Weekend Stakes Play - The Grade 2 Super Derby

ebcorde — Sat, 06 Sep 2014 01:54:17 GMT

Yeah, I saw the #6 Horse "Victory Nor Defeat" and his late pace figures. Almost put him on top, but I like top jockeys for the big money, hence Rosie.

re: TimeformUS Weekend Stakes Play - The Grade 2 Super Derby

Coldfacts — Fri, 05 Sep 2014 23:55:12 GMT

The horses below are multiple G1 winners and multimillionaires that were produced from mares sired by Triple Crown winner Affirmed.

Harlan’s Holiday (22 Starts 9-6-1; E: $3.6M)

Pleasantly Perfect (18 Starts 9-3-2; E: $7.8M)

As unbelievable as it might appear, there are no tail male descendants of the great Triple Crown winner standing in the US. His mares like those of fellow TC winner Secretariat are considered premium in any broodmare band. His remaining active mares must be few in numbers as on very rare occasions a foal pops up on radar with Affirmed as dam sire.

One such foal is Victory Nor Defeat. The colt immediately caught my attention on his debut when I saw he was out of an Affirmed mare. I was very keen to see how he would performed and he did not disappoint as he closed willingly to secure a decisive victory over 7F in a good time of 1:23 1/5. That performance made him a must follow as not only was he by an Affirmed mare but his sire Unbridled’s Song who has sired over 100 stakes winners.

After his impressive debut on dirt, he was surprisingly placed in a turf race and was badly beaten. In addition to his poor performance, it appears he suffered an injury as was MIA for 3 months.

The surface at Gulfstream Park makes winning races from off the pace very difficult. The fact that since his return he has closed willingly against the speed bias for a victory and a narrow loss, is a testament to the colt's immense ability.

Victory Nor Defeat will enjoy every inch of the 9F Super Derby and with the expected strong pace, the race will set up beautifully for him. It appears another good one has been produced by an Affirmed mare. This colt has the pedigree and base on his last two starts, he certainly has the speed and stamina to defeat this field.

re: TimeformUS Weekend Stakes Play - The Grade 2 Super Derby

Coldfacts — Fri, 05 Sep 2014 19:42:33 GMT

Louisiana Flyboy:

1st start: 08/01/2013 -1st

2nd start: 11/03/2013 – 93 days - 9th

3rd start: 12/22/2013 – 48 days - 2nd

4th start: 02/21/2014 – 60 days - 2nd

5th start: 06/21/2014 – 119 days- 1st

6th start: 08/02/2014 – 41 days - 1st

The above breakdown of the intervals between starts for Louisiana Flyboy suggests two things. He is a very talented colt with soundness issues.

He won his first start under Patrick Mouton. He hopped out of the gates and was 12L behind the field early. He showed tremendous speed to catch up with the field and was taken 6W at the top of the stretch and still won by widening 63/4L. He erased 12L and added 63/4L on the field for 18 3/4L rally not including the lengths lost while going wide. It takes a truly exceptional horse to win a sprint race while overcoming such challenges in its first race.

He was switched to Chad Brown for his next 3 starts. Although he finished 2nd twice while under Chad Brown's care, he was beaten a combined 25 3/4L in those 3 races. All 3 starts were at Aqueduct and the colt performance suggested he either disliked the surface or his new handlers.

It is worth noting that his 1st start after being switched to Chad Brown was 93 days after his debut. His next 2 starts for Brown were 48 and 60 day apart. This is a clear indication this colt had issues.

He was retuned to Patrick Mouton and 119 days after his 4th start, he made 5th and 2nd start for the initial trainer. He scored a commanding victory in the Lafayette. That was followed by another victory in a similar fashion. Pat Mouton appears to have the Midas tough as he has a 100% win record with this colt.

I am of the opinion that Louisiana Flyboy is the most talented horse in the race. It appears physical or other issues have inhibited the progress of this colt. The fact that he will be making his next start in 34 days suggest those issues are behind him and that spells trouble for the field.

He will certainly be longer than 10-1. I expect Victory Nor Defeat to be his biggest danger.

re: TimeformUS Weekend Stakes Play - The Grade 2 Super Derby

ebcorde — Fri, 05 Sep 2014 16:59:08 GMT

I like the 4 on top with 1 keyed in the tri/super and the 5,6,7,3,10. I Like Graham on the 1 But I like Rosie much better. Not liking the Jockey on the #10.

The #10 concerns me not liking the Jockey and he beat the #1 #1.