Super Saturday!

re: Super Saturday!

Sam Santschi — Tue, 30 Sep 2014 15:06:33 GMT

Thanks all for the most recent posts about the Arc. Look forward to your blog about it Keelerman later in the week. Was all set to bet on Arc preview day but Xpressbet had no video so I passed on it. They usually have video for the Arc though. Pedigree Ann: Had the pleasure of attending Arc preview day many years ago. Tried to place a bet in broken French and using hand gestures...Got shut out. Thought they might call the gendarmes. Apparently I offended the poor clerk. Naturally the horse I wanted to bet won. Beautiful facility Longchamp and The Curragh is too. Very interesting betting experience in Ireland with the Bookmakers on stepstools with their odds-boards.

re: Super Saturday!

-Keelerman — Tue, 30 Sep 2014 02:57:20 GMT

English Pete & Pedigree Ann;

Thanks for the weather forecast updates in regard to the Arc! I plan on writing a blog post covering the Arc and the Prix de l'Abbaye, and it should be up either late on Friday or early on Saturday. I've been some fun doing a bit of early handicapping! Should Longchamp come up on the dry side, I agree with JerseyBoy that the Japanese will have a strong chance, particularly Gold Ship. But Ectot was very impressive in the Prix Niel, is proven over the course, and -- as a three-year-old -- will be receiving weight from his elder rivals. He's clearly in very good form, and could very well improve in his second start since April. So at this point, I'm leaning toward Ectot as my selection, but that's still open to change. In any case, it should be a terrific race!

re: Super Saturday!

-Keelerman — Tue, 30 Sep 2014 02:43:04 GMT

Ky Vet;

I'm so happy to hear that your horse recovered! Thanks for sharing the fantastic news!

re: Super Saturday!

-Keelerman — Tue, 30 Sep 2014 02:38:07 GMT

Secreteriat;

Thanks for the update on Bold Conquest! I'll be cheering for him this Saturday. Good luck!

re: Super Saturday!

El Kabong — Tue, 30 Sep 2014 02:27:20 GMT

KY VET,

That is great news. No victory will ever mean more to you, I'm sure of that. Cheers!

re: Super Saturday!

JayJay — Tue, 30 Sep 2014 02:25:48 GMT

English Pete : That was a doozy, took me some time to figure out who you were addressing and finally found it when I searched the blog for "kingston" which showed you're probably directing your comments to JerseyBoy. And if I had continued to read on, I would've found my answer quicker lol.

I thought at first I may have offended you with the "t-shirt, shorts and sandals" comment which was purely a joke because that's what I normally wear here in California.

I will not even begin to pretend I know anything about European racing, I enjoy watching it in the mornings via Xpressbet but that's about it. I'm more familiar with Australian racing than Euro but I'll have a look and join in your little bragging rights contest if I may...seeing I recently showed my spectacular and unmatched handicapping skills in the last contest lol.

re: Super Saturday!

JerseyBoy — Tue, 30 Sep 2014 00:15:38 GMT

Ranagulzion:

I believe it depends on the weather.

If it is firm, I will be wary of the Japanese.

Treve had an injury earlier this year. She has lost her last three. Taghrooda was beaten last time out. But they might be there at the finish.

English Pete, I realized you did not mean to address JayJay. No problem.

re: Super Saturday!

Ranagulzion — Mon, 29 Sep 2014 23:32:38 GMT

English Pete, Pedigree Ann & Jersey Boy:

How about a filly exactor in the Arc: Taghrooda / Treve?

I can't decide which one I prefer to win the race but both are coming into the race in fine fettle.

re: Super Saturday!

English Pete — Mon, 29 Sep 2014 22:30:14 GMT

In my earlier post I referred to Jayjay and I meant Jersey Boy. Apologies to both of you - it's late and that's my only excuse!

re: Super Saturday!

JerseyBoy — Mon, 29 Sep 2014 22:04:34 GMT

Pedigree Ann:

Enjoy your trip.

Thanks for the info.

I need rain to help Kingston Hill. I feel he is an underrated horse.

re: Super Saturday!

English Pete — Mon, 29 Sep 2014 21:44:42 GMT

Weather forecast for Longchamp from Tuesday thru Sunday is 70's, bright sunshine and no rain. They water heavily though, and there's a good covering of grass, so you should assume the going will ride good or very slightly on the firm side of good.

I think Kingston Hill will run a solid race if he goes, but his problem is that he doesn't have the turn of foot necessary for this track which has a false straight with an extra turn close to home. He's more of a 'one long run' horse and they don't win an Arc when the ground doesn't have soft in the description. Of course it's much easier to say what won't win than what will, but Jayjay I'll post my bet somewhere on the site later this week when The Bloodhorse covers the race. If you like, we can have a 'bragging rights' side bet on who gets nearest to the winner.

Ann, I hope you have a memorable day on Sunday. I've been to many Arcs but this year I traded it for a trip to the Breeders Cup so I'll be watching on TV. I saw the replay of Tiggy Wiggy's win last Saturday, and she undoubtedly has a chance on Sunday. She's currently 3/1 joint fav with Sole Power. In the Abbaye, I always like to back a British horse that has been switching between handicaps and stakes races and I like Move in Time. Have to wait for the draw though, as 10 or below is a big advantage on the straight course.

For the Arc, I always try and keep it simple: winner last time out, a Group 1 to its name and a single digit draw finds the winner 8 years out of every ten. There's nearly always more than one qualifier, but when you get a 27/1 Danedream with that method it does keep the lights on.

By the way Jayjay, Kingston Hill is trading at 12/1 or better over here. If you fancy him, I suspect that's quite a good price.

re: Super Saturday!

mz — Mon, 29 Sep 2014 21:37:31 GMT

Pedigree Ann: there's a 2YO colt also possible for the Abbaye. Both of them with major weight allowances. I think Tiggy Wiggy might just do it, tho -- and good on her!

Remember, Harp Star for the Arc.

re: Super Saturday!

Pedigree Ann — Mon, 29 Sep 2014 20:39:10 GMT

Jersey Boy - this has been the driest September on record in the British Isles and their records go back farther than ours. Haven't kept track of the weather across the Channel, but I doubt they have had as much rain as usual in Paris in September, either. (Not so far away, same weather systems dominate.) Frequently it has been distinctly bog-like around Longchamp, it is true; long-range BBC forecast calls for a chance of some rain tonight, then sunny and warm (highs of 23 C) until Friday, cooling and a chance of rain on Saturday, cooler still with light cloud on Sunday. Wouldn't count on a bog.

Hey, anybody see Tiggy Wiggy stretch to 6f and win her G1 against 2yo fillies? She is still headed to the Abbaye on Arc day, since 2yos get a great weight break + she gets the sex allowance, too. She breaks like a US sprinter and I don't expect she will care that they are males and older chasing her. Go Tigs!

re: Super Saturday!

KY VET — Mon, 29 Sep 2014 20:25:42 GMT

she has the bowels of a champion!.......she pooped!!!!.........from giving the ok to put her down, to victory!......now, if she was only faster..........

re: Super Saturday!

JerseyBoy — Mon, 29 Sep 2014 18:36:39 GMT

After the weekend farce in America, real racing returns on Sunday in France.

I hope it rains so I can unload on Kingston Hill in the Prix de l'Arc, if he gets an inside post.

re: Super Saturday!

El Kabong — Mon, 29 Sep 2014 17:50:56 GMT

Keelerman,

Here's the explanation of what happened in that race at Emerald Downs.

In the process, previously unbeaten Trackattacker—the 3-to-5 betting favorite with over $143,000 wagered to show—stopped badly, yielding the lead to Prime Engine at the quarter-pole, and was eased through the stretch and finished last.

“I was going at a comfortable pace, but when we got to the five-sixteenths pole I felt that his stride was shortening,” jockey Leslie Mawing said of Trackattacker. “He swallowed his tongue at the time, and down the lane he never spit his tongue back out at all. He didn’t have a tongue-tie. I just took care of the horse after that.”

There you have it, a perfectly good reason straight from the horses mouth:)

re: Super Saturday!

Ranagulzion — Mon, 29 Sep 2014 16:57:42 GMT

Matthew W 28 Sep 2014 4:13 PM :

Interesting post ...the rich Breeder's Cup Classic "coffee" is certainly perculating out there in California between Baffert, Sherman and Hollendorfer, not to mention Mike Smith, Victor Espinoza and Martin Garcia. I guess it is going to be "Three The Hard Way" ...Bayern, Shared Belief and California Chrome in a shoot out at "OK Coral" (LOL). Having said that, the enigmatic Moreno and his 'voodoo' trainer could come in and complicate things ...his jock Junior Alvarado should be suspended for that wicked/dangerous interefrence of Wicked Strong in the JCGC, causing Rajiv Maragh to break his arm. I sincerely hope that in the heat of being competitive these folks play fair and stay safe.

re: Super Saturday!

Ranagulzion — Mon, 29 Sep 2014 16:38:33 GMT

KY Vet: Woof! woof! ...please accept my sympathy.

re: Super Saturday!

-Keelerman — Mon, 29 Sep 2014 15:23:33 GMT

It was announced this morning that Itsmyluckyday will pass on the Breeders' Cup and await the Cigar Mile at Aqueduct, further diminishing the expected field for the Breeders' Cup Classic.

re: Super Saturday!

Coldfacts — Mon, 29 Sep 2014 14:19:25 GMT

Rusty Weisner,

Footbridge ran a nice race in the Awesome Again but has proven to be average for his pedigree. His sire and dam sire were Dubai World cup winners and were top rated horses in the world as some point. I was hoping he would have been placed on the outside for his stretch run as he seems to quicken a lot more when wide.

I am of the opinion he does not have a conditioner that can get him to maximize his potential. In the post parade he resembled a tranquilized horse devoid of sharpness.

He is not listed as a probable in the BCC and I find that surprising as the likely number of participants will be narrowed significantly by the time declarations come around.

Would Footbridge have any realistic chance of winning the BCC? Well, the same question could have been asked about the chances of Alphabet Soup. He finished 10th in the 10F, Big Cap followed by 3rd in the 9fF, Goodwood now the Awesome Again and was given no chance of defeating the great Cigar. The rest is history.

Footbridge won an allowance over 10F in 2:01.94; he was 2nd to Feb Biz in the San Diego completed in a NTR and he was 3rd in the Goodwood. Certainly those are three races that could set up most horses for a shot at the BCC. With Footbridge’s pedigree I get the impression he could be the type to deliver a shocker when least expects.

re: Super Saturday!

Coldfacts — Mon, 29 Sep 2014 13:32:43 GMT

There seems to be a lot post race focus on V E Day's performance for the obvious reason that I have been citing his historic victory in the Travers.

The colt lost and I have accept same just as I accepted Wicked Strong's loss in the Derby.

Below are the post race comments from his trainer.

"Both horses came back good," Jerkens said. "V. E. Day lost an awful lot of ground early on. Post 10 is tough; I think it's even tougher on a come-from-behind horse. (Jockey Javier Castellano) wasn't able to tuck him in turning in on the backside and then he was stacked wide. He got him in a little bit on the turn, but then he had to go and swing out again wide when you lose the most ground. I think with a better post he would have gotten a check."

Jerkens said Centennial Farms' Wicked Strong, the Wood Memorial (gr. I) winner who was second by a nose to stablemate V. E. Day in the Travers (gr. I), could be done racing until 2015.

re: Super Saturday!

JayJay — Mon, 29 Sep 2014 13:30:44 GMT

Coldfacts : So after all that post about VE Day being the best 3YO and your comparisons of G1s and theoritical defeat of California Chrome via Tonalist...you're telling me that you bet Tonalist ? lol, I didn't think it would last long but I see you're back to your "winning" ways on this blog...after the fact.

Pedigree Ann : What happens if you go to the event dressed in a t-shirt and jeans...would they throw you out ? If I was invited, depending on the weather, I'd probably wear a t-shirt, shorts and sandals lol. Have a great time and hope you find a dress to impress.

re: Super Saturday!

Coldfacts — Mon, 29 Sep 2014 12:42:57 GMT

KY VET,

I specified Mr. Johnson blog. I appears you didn't read my submission properly.

Kindly note my pre race submission on Mr. Johnson's latest blog.

re: Super Saturday!

Pedigree Ann — Mon, 29 Sep 2014 08:56:11 GMT

Also, this bunch of 3yos is pretty decent, considering how they have taken care of the older horses recently. Hope enough of them stick around to give us a better older horse division next year.

re: Super Saturday!

Pedigree Ann — Mon, 29 Sep 2014 08:52:40 GMT

Hi, guys. Have been dealing with real life for a bit - clothes shopping for the Arc (dress code "smart" so none of my usual polo shirts and chinos!) and preparing for guests. Left most of my more 'posh' clothes back home, because in my husband's field, dressing up is not a big deal, even in the UK, where most people dress up more often than Americans. I hate shopping, so it has been an ordeal. But at least now I won't disgrace the blog in the VIP section at Longchamp.

Didn't get to see any of the big races over the weekend live. Didn't I tell you that Moreno runs best at Saratoga? Looks like Tonalist really likes Belmont. "Horses for courses" is, of course, more of a reality in the UK, where the courses are in many different shapes, some uphill and downhill, some left-handed, some right-handed, some mostly straight (Newmarket). But in the US it holds to some extent, too. Be it the surface, length of the stretch, tightness of turns, whatever, you will still see horses who run better (or worse) at particular tracks.