Blame's Game

re: Blame's Game

Breeder — Fri, 10 Sep 2010 22:13:31 GMT

Being that Zenyatta and Blame are 1st cousins,they run very similar races. The disadvantage I see for Blame is that he is right up there at the beginning of the race and many times he has almost gotten boxed in. Zenyatta sits back and lets them fight it out and then she just runs to the outside and leaves them in the dust. As she has aged, she has gotten smarter about what it takes to win and only does what it takes to pass the last horse. Mike Smith said it best "she does whatever it takes to get the job done". I wish for Zenyatta to retire undefeated. With all of the tragedies that have befallen our beautiful Race Horses in the past few years, it would be wonderful for 1 to see "The Dream" come true! You can bet that Zenyatta's first foal won't sell for $60,000

re: Blame's Game

Bill Daly — Tue, 10 Aug 2010 15:15:29 GMT

Shiznik makes some really good points. Jeff Siegal on HRTV made the same points after the race. Saratoga, it seems to me, that day was a difficult track for horses to go wire-to-wire at a mile and an eighth. I haven't checked the stats for running styles at this meet, however. Obviously, speed carries differently on different tracks. It still seems odd that QR couldn't have accelerated more given the fact he was cruising through such a moderate pace. Perhaps, JV had too tight a hold on him, but it didn't appear as if he was rank. I just don't know.

re: Blame's Game

Delrene — Tue, 10 Aug 2010 01:28:06 GMT

Blame ran a great race. Watched it at Del Mar on the big screen. Waiting for a glimpse of Zenyatta prior to her race.

Let's all remember we lost a great horse in Tuscan Evening and honor the horses and leave the jabs at RA & Zenyatta off the written page.. The horses are better sportswomen/men than some of the authors of aforementioned comments.

re: Blame's Game

Shiznik — Mon, 09 Aug 2010 19:30:11 GMT

Be careful what you wish for!

Johnny V. thought he was getting a dream trip. Afterall, he was on the fastest horse in the race (who most thought was also the best horse in the race) and he was able to set crawling fractions. I'll bet he couldn't believe how lucky he was. I would say J.V. was thinking it was game set and match half way around the far turn (if not sooner). No horse in this race was going to out sprint J.V.'s Quality Road in the final 3 furlongs after a 48 and change half. J.V. was on top of the world coming into the stretch. He was looking back alright (multiple times), he was in shock. Didn't the other riders know they couldn't let a horse like Q.R. crawl for a half mile and expect to beat him? I suspect that thought was what caused J.V. too look over and under his shoulder, repeatedly.

The problem is that Johnny V. forgot too race his horse (read him) and instead got caught up in his incredible luck and read only the race pace. In most races with most front running and presser types J.V. may have been making the right call. That style, however, doesn't fit Quality Road at all. He is a dominator. That is what he prefers too do. If Q.R. gets a real pace with real frontrunning speed he is happy to press (because he is able to cruise at his natural pace, which is fast). In these scenario's he is at his best (even at 1 1/8th, though a mile is his best distance) because he has ultra acceleration from an already high cruising speed. This is his greatest asset, unadulterated speed.

However, When there is no pace and he has inherited the lead, you must let the horse have his head and cruise at his natural pace (fast). To slow Quality Road down from his natural cruising speed is to take away his greatest asset.

Quality Road, if left too his own will, would have opened up 6 to 8 lengths on this field very easily and without doing anything the horse wasn't very naturally able to do. With that lead J.V. could have still opened up a few more coming out of the far turn and into the stretch and had enough too finish a diminishing 4 or 5 lengths in front of Blame. J.V. did none of that and he did it intentionally. It is counterintuitive to do what I suggest he should have done. Many riders are trained/told too pay attention to pace and if possible, slow it if you can, on a frontrunner.

Not on Quality Road! If he is going to be on the lead he needs to be given his head.

As a disclaimer, I am a fan of all horses and horse racing. I am not in the camp that believes that Quality Road is a great horse. He is a good horse who has flashed greatness, imo. Blame is also a good horse and imo, has a greater chance for greatness than Quality Road does. I believe this mainly because of Blame's potential at classic distances, whereas I believe Q.R. is limited past a mile and an 1/8th. I also believe this because the connections of Quality Road refuse to see what they have, a potentially great miler who is so good that he can somtimes beat inferior fields that are more suited to distance. Kind of a shame, because there is no shame in being a great miler (which I believe is truly the best race distance and produces the best races because it tests the sprinters and the routers equally).

Each race is it's own puzzle and this is how I saw the Whitney, which may or maynot apply to the next race.

re: Blame's Game

sodapopkid — Mon, 09 Aug 2010 19:06:38 GMT

You all cry over QR carrying 123 lbs. Well,I guess you would cry even harder if he had to carry 129 lbs. like Zenyatta does. And she wins carrying the added weight plus on synthetic surfaces. It just goes to prove how great she really is.

re: Blame's Game

LAZMANNICK — Mon, 09 Aug 2010 17:34:12 GMT

I wouldn't even bring the subject of Rachel up until after the Personal Ensign. To date, she really hasn't proven anything of consequence this year. She might have run a fast FDL, but is she really good enough to beat Blame and would she have beaten him in the Foster? That was a mighty big mountain to climb as Battle Plan would have run her into the ground. She can expect the same thing in the BCC, if she goes in it which I hope she does. There will be no easy go in that race.

As for the 5 pounds Quality Road had to give up. Come on. If he can’t tough it out carrying 126 lbs. and giving up 5 to a horse that was carrying 121, how can he be compared to anything that might be considered great. He was 2-5 in the ML. People expected him to romp, totally dominate. What would he do if he had to carry 130 or 135? the good ones did and they gave away 15 and 20 pounds when doing it.

re: Blame's Game

kathleen o — Mon, 09 Aug 2010 16:21:43 GMT

Seeing a lot of mention of the 5lb weight advantage Blame had in the Whitney. Some have cited that as the reason QR lost. These same people spent a great deal of time discounting the 9lbs that Zen spotted St Trinians. I do wish some of you would read your previous posts before completely discounting them as it suits your current argument.

re: Blame's Game

Ranagulzion — Mon, 09 Aug 2010 16:09:31 GMT

LaurieK,

Zenyatta has been awesome on Synthetic surfaces BUT has competed only twice on Dirt in three seasons of racing (both in Apple Blossom at Oaklawn Park). If she runs in the Breeder's Cup Classic and fails to win, I assure you that all of a sudden the true content of her resume will come into focus and her ranking among the historic champions of the Dirt will take a major hit. Mark my words. I'm a fan of the great mare but sentiments should not mask the timidity of her campaign with respect to dirt races. How fair is it to have your favourite mare racing two out of eighteen lifetime starts on dirt and wanting to be regarded as queen over a domain in which others, both past and present, have done better? Think honestly about it?

Many fellow Zenyatta fans become antsy when these points are raised but these are the cold facts ...as a sparring partner of mine on these blogs would say ... (Hey COLDFACTS !!! do you agree? LOL)

GUNBOW,

I'm in agreement with Saratoga AJ on the question of East Coast horses going West. Before last years Breeder's Cup I shared your view (even after watching Curlin flounder in the BCC 2008) but alas, the cold facts of a second straight Breeder's Cup on Pro-ride finally convinced me that Dirt horses stand little or no chance against Synthetic specialists in their domain. The records show that the move from Synthetic to Dirt is far more successful as many horses actually move up in their performances. I never knock Zenyatta but I do chide the connections for an injustice done to the horses ability and insist that they should not begrudge the HOTY winners of the past two seasons for being enterprising. The chickens are also going to come home to roost for those who think that she is more than a Synthetic champion if she doesn't triumph in the Breeder's Cup Classic in November 2010. In my assessment of any undefeated horse I always leave room in my judgment for undisclosed talent (brilliance that is only drawn out by serious competition) hence Zenyatta surprised me in last year's BCC but not alltogether. I'm looking forward to being amazed again as right now I think that there are a few colts and Rachel Alexandra that could overwhealm her on Dirt even at 10 Furlongs. When I'm proven wrong in situations like these I'm actually quite happy and become a mesmerized fan. Let's hope that the great stand-off ends in November.

re: Blame's Game

kathleen o — Mon, 09 Aug 2010 15:41:28 GMT

AJ, the track was slow, the fractions were slow, and as a closer, Zen's times are going to reflect that. The strategy seems to be to set slow fractions so the front runners have juice left. You should know that. The speed horses were having problems with the track on Saturday as well. Zen was bored to tears with that race. Mike Smith said she was just playing, he had to keep her attention to the wire. He also said he moved her too soon, and when she passes the last horse, she thinks she's done. C'mon, AJ, give it a rest. I'm tired of the fact that you diminish everything Zen does in order to embellish whichever East coast horse you favor at the moment. Can't you just enjoy Zen while she's here racing?

re: Blame's Game

LAZMANNICK — Mon, 09 Aug 2010 15:22:11 GMT

Saratoga AJ

Just stating the facts about Rinterval. She’s running the best races of her career right now, two losses by a head to two BC winners. Saturday’s Hirsch was little more than a belated sprint as they ran the last 3 furlongs of the race much faster than the first part of it. Personally I agree with you about Zenyatta. I think given her age, size, and whatever issues she has that we are not aware of there has to be some kind of effect. She is definitely running slower races, but I wonder if she is really slowing down. When looking at the replay and watching the last 20 yards or so, I see a cagey horse. She gave a little extra acceleration when they got close to the wire and the other one wouldn’t go away, like a mare that knows where the finish line is and how much energy she needs to expand to get there. That also tells me that there is still a lot of run left and she will probably be cut loose when the big race comes.

As far as the Beldame, I heard that they were considering it too. Then I heard that they might stay in Cali because they don’t want to ship east too early and then have to come back west and go back east again for the BC because Sherriff isn’t keen about stabling her in the east from the Beldame to the BC. Who knows. As far as the Distaff or the BCC, it’ll be the BCC. To go in the Distaff would possibly tarnish her accomplishments and prove her skeptics right (at least according to them).

Regarding Quality Road…..that was a tough loss. People are looking for all kinds of reasons why he lost. If running 1 1/8M at Saratoga in a head to head dual at the wire is being flat, look out. What would he do if he wasn’t flat? I’ve always liked QR, but I never considered him the wonder horse that some have, at least not until he defeats legitimately good G1 route horses and so far, other than Musket Man who is maybe a cut below and Dunkirk on a heavily biased track, he hasn’t done that. Their can be an excuse for the Travers, but not the JCGC (110 Beyer) or the Whitney. To me three strikes and you’re out. And to be listed as 2-5 ML favorite I thought was a little too much.

re: Blame's Game

Bill Daly — Mon, 09 Aug 2010 15:15:21 GMT

No chance that Zenyatta will race in NY. She'll stay home until the BC. She's not regressing at all. the fact that she was able to overcome a dawdling pace and still win with something left tells me that she's still got it. The filly or mare that ran second wasn't going to beat her. I do take issue with the quality of her competition however. I think most of us would like to see her face better competition as I doubt whether it would stop her. Bob Baffert said that she probably is even better on dirt and there is some evidence leaning in that direction. Unless they put the grandstand on back she ain't gonna lose. It's that simple.

re: Blame's Game

Johnny — Mon, 09 Aug 2010 15:02:21 GMT

18-0 and getting bad mouthed by some.. Man that must be some good weed..

Is she slowing down? I do not think so she just knows were the finish line is.

Look at her beyer figures last year then all of a sudden she sets a career high beyer on B/C.. HMMMM luck I think not she just knows all the greats do..

She will repeat and join the great Tiznow. Could be some nice breeding their

re: Blame's Game

Barbara W — Mon, 09 Aug 2010 13:58:32 GMT

Devastating to hear the news about Tuscan Evening.

Praying for comfort for her connections. Reminded me of what happened to Swale.

re: Blame's Game

Saratoga AJ — Mon, 09 Aug 2010 13:49:22 GMT

LAZMANNICK:

QR had no excuse other than the 5 lbs, and did not run up to his reputation despite the excellent 111 Beyer he and Blame got (3rd fastest number of the year over one mile). Even third finisher Musket Man got a 108...fifth fastest. So it was a fast race. His next start will really be scrutinized, count on it. The distance limitations will be the buzz again. But maybe Blame is a lot better than anyone thought too. He may be the only horse in the country who could have beat QR in that race Saturday.

Now how you can possibly sing the virtues of 3 for 22 sprinter Rinterval is surprising from someone who knows racing as much you do.

Truth be told, I believe Zenyatta IS slowing down a little. Don't believe me? Take a few minutes to analyze the times of her races...compare the same stakes races she has won from one year to the next the last 3 1/2 years. There is a trend. I think the wear and tear is starting to show, IMO. Remember, there really wasn't any long breaks like RA had for instance. She is still great, but I believe the connections see what I see. She will race only two more times at most before she's retired. They'll shoot for 20 straight.

And I still think there is a very good chance that neither RA or Zen's connections will want to tackle what appears to be an exceptional group of colts this year. If so, they will finally meet Friday night on national TV in the Ladies Classic and not the BC Classic. Remember...you heard it here IF it goes down that way.

BTW, I'm hearing that Sherriffs is seriously considering the Beldame at "Big Sandy" October 2nd. How wonderful would that be...Zen finally comes to the Big Time in NY!!!

re: Blame's Game

Saratoga AJ — Mon, 09 Aug 2010 13:08:49 GMT

Gun Bow:

"But more confusing to me is how few horsemen from outside of California have gone for the chance to make history by coming out to Cali and challenging the big mare".

Not to me. It's called S-y-n-t-h-e-t-i-c tracks. After the results of the last two BC Championships, what owner/trainer would want to chance their dirt raced and trained horses across the country to race on that crap?

In the old days it was different.

East Coast horses...including some of the best...went West sometimes. No more.

re: Blame's Game

Slew — Mon, 09 Aug 2010 11:02:43 GMT

hmmm ..."queen of the turf"?????...I do believe that's Goldikova, since RA and Zen have never raced on the turf. Are we sure Vic knows the difference?

To the Whitney...QR seemed disinterested. The speed duel between QR and Haynesfield never materialized because Haynesfield was so fractious. I think QR is a great miler, but Blame's a distance horse. I thought it was a slow race, and my heart still belongs to Musket Man. I thought the undercard this week at Saratoga was sensational, and I became amazed by Abilio, Talk Therapy, and Shirley She Can. Champagne D'Oro showed extra gears, and a quick turn of foot, while my poor Pica Slew sort of hit a wall at 6f. Majestic Perfection was just that in a deep field, though Big Drama and Gayego tried their hardest.

And on the West Coast...Wow...sheer poetry of motion. When Zen starts moving along the outside, she really starts moving and glides across the track. Now that's real perfection.

re: Blame's Game

Marcelo — Mon, 09 Aug 2010 09:48:30 GMT

When it's all said and done come the first Saturday in November none of these horses, Blame, Quality Road, Rachel Alexandra, are going to be able to hold off the hard charging freight train that is ZENYATTA!!!!

re: Blame's Game

LAZMANNICK — Mon, 09 Aug 2010 05:22:00 GMT

The way the pace scenario set up in both the Whitney and the Hirsch, Zenyatta had a lot more reason to lose her race than Quality Road did his. The difference was that Zen found a way to win like she always does and Quality Road did not. If you look back, Zen has had to overcome adversity many times. Quality Road, when faced with adversity, has never over come it. When he gets his way he can be a monster. A check of last year’s Florida Derby confirms this when the track bias favored him to the point that Pletcher, who was his rival trainer then, complained bitterly because Dunkirk was at a disadvantage. The Donn was another race that set up perfectly and the fact that the competition was no where near his standards helped. However, whenever he has met a top horse (since the Florida Derby) like Summer Bird twice and Blame he has lost. Even Musket Man, slightly below SB and Blame, can stay within two lengths of him and MM’s trainer has openly voiced his disrespect. Quality Road had no excuses and could not find a way to win and to me you really have to wonder if he has the heart. A horse with heart and a definite will to win is Blame who is without doubt at the top of the handicap division until someone knocks him off.

re: Blame's Game

ZJ — Mon, 09 Aug 2010 05:11:56 GMT

Am too sick to hear about Tuscan Evening..... she was a Queen too and will be missed. She was a brilliant mare....

What more can you say about Zenyatta that hasn't been said already?

I was happy to see some others win this weekend. Majesticperfection will be my pick for the BC Sprint .... I really like him. Secret Gypsy was really good in the Honorable Miss.... I liked her from the outset. Also Concord Point ran a beautiful race in the West Virg. Derby.

Was also saddened by the injury to Harbinger, the sensation who won the King George VI and the Queen Elizabeth Stakes in England..... I hope he recovers.....

re: Blame's Game

Brigitte — Mon, 09 Aug 2010 04:59:30 GMT

I'm guessing QR was taken out of his game and slowed down early so he would have something left, partly as practice for the Classic. But giving up his high cruising speed didn't give him another gear.

re: Blame's Game

LAZMANNICK — Mon, 09 Aug 2010 04:56:27 GMT

As far as Saratoga AJ's comments about Zenyatta…..the filly that gave her a tussle just happened to stretch Informed Decision a BC winner and multi G1 winner to the limit before losing by a head, this in her last start. Delmar was a tough track on Saturday, probably about 2 seconds off what it normally should have played like. The fractions were dawdling to say the least. The ¾ time in the race was by far the slowest ¾’s in any of Zen’s races to date. It’s interesting to note that the next slowest ¾ time was in last year’s Hirsch……1.13.64 compared to today’s 1.15.11 (both races her closest margin of victory). It is also interesting to note that Rinterval was the pace setter, not another horse coming from off the pace. She was already on the lead, not trying to catch up. In last year’s Hirsch Zen’s final 1/16th was 5.96……this year’s version was 5.97. To show how dominating Zen is, Dance To My Tune who was 1 1/4L behind her when they last met, was 7 lengths behind today and in a much slower race……I bet if you look back many of those who say she will have to run a whole lot faster to beat the top colts today, said the same thing last year after she almost lost the Hirsch. Big deal. Many of them said the same thing about Blame’s slow time is the Foster compared to Rachel’s FDL. It’s all talk. When the horses slip into the starting gate and the gate opens, then we’ll see. It still makes me wonder.....they keep on questioning and doubting Zen and yet are making excuses by the bushel basket for Quality Road.

re: Blame's Game

LAZMANNICK — Mon, 09 Aug 2010 04:38:33 GMT

Quality Road lost a lot of his mystique. No dominating win. No track record. No 125 type Beyer. Certainly not even close to the best horse to come around in years. And now for the excuses.....he was flat, JR should have turned up the heat right off the bat, etc. and etc. It is doubtful he can win at 10F against a deep field with speed, stalkers, mid pack closers and stone closers like we'll see in the BCC. His defeat wasn't surprising considering that Blame always was the real deal, this in spite of the fact that his Beyers never approached QR's or even Rachel's for that matter. The loss that mystified me was Little Drama. He had a tough run down the back stretch and around the turn, but the others did too and they didn't fold. He did. I hope it was the sloppy track or something to that effect. Zenyatta was Zenyatta. It's disappointing that she won't be coming east quite yet, but when she does get out of Cali some people are going to be eating their words. As far as the sprint division, Majesticperfection is going to take some beating. He's definitely the boss of the sprint division. And how about Champagne d’Oro? The 3 year old filly division is much deeper this year than last.

re: Blame's Game

Susan — Mon, 09 Aug 2010 04:36:23 GMT

Shame on you Zast. You just have to keep getting your negative digs in about Zenyatta. If it is so easy to go 18 for 18 undefeated running in grade ones, than why are not more horses there?

I had Blame to win the Whitney and he proved me right. The Breeders Cup Classic will between Zenyatta and Blame. The rest will be also rans. My bet will be on Zenyatta because she is the more dangerous closer.

And it is a very sad day in racing to lose a great mare like Tuscan Evening. It makes you realize how fragile these horses really are.

re: Blame's Game

tana rae — Mon, 09 Aug 2010 04:18:29 GMT

Oh, my sentiments exactly GunBow. Was feeling great about Lisa's Booby Trap (what a feel good story), Blame - had a hunch, and of course, our BIG Z...was such a great racing weekend. And then, the unexpectedly sad news about Tuscan Evening. I've been crying ever since. Boy, you're up one minute in this game and down the next. My sympathy to Jerry H. and her connections (owners, groom, everyone)...at least it was quick -apparently - and where she loved to be...on the track.

re: Blame's Game

LaurieK — Mon, 09 Aug 2010 04:07:55 GMT

History will not be kind to Zenyatta if she loses the BCC? I doubt history is that big an idiot. QR lost...so what? The horse is a beast, but last time I checked horses aren't machines. They have off days. And Blame is the real deal. It's no shame to lose on your off day to a horse like that. RIP to Tuscan Evening. She was a grand mare. What a reminder that perhaps we should be appeciating the abundance of fine horses currently active on our tracks rather than doing what racing fans habitually do: bitch and moan about nothing of consequence.