What's Going On Here

Preakness First, then Magic - by Eric Mitchell

2013-05-15T16:09:00Z

(Originally published in the May 18, 2013 issue of The Blood-Horse magazine. Feel free to share your own thoughts and opinions at the bottom of the column.)

By Eric Mitchell - @BH_EMitchell on Twitter

Is this the year? Is this the one that will break the streak of near misses that has now stretched to 35 years, the longest drought ever between Triple Crown winners since Sir Barton claimed the first crown in 1919?

When assessing the chances of Triple Crown success most people debating the potential of a Kentucky Derby winner go straight to the Belmont Stakes (gr. I) . The pivotal question is often this: Can this horse handle the 11⁄2-mile “Test of the Champion” on Big Sandy? In a Thoroughbred population of predominately precocious speed, the question is a legitimate one. Not many breeding programs have the goal of producing a horse that can stay 12 furlongs. Besides the Belmont, North American tracks only offer four other graded stakes at that distance on dirt or synthetics—the Brooklyn Handicap (gr. II), the Cougar Handicap (gr. III), the Greenwood Cup (gr. III), and the Tokyo City Cup (gr. III).

Also since 1955, 18 horses that were able to capture the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes (gr. I) fell short in the Belmont at margins of between eight lengths (1989, Sunday Silence behind Easy Goer) and a nose (1998, Real Quiet behind Victory Gallop).

Veteran jockey super-agent Ron Anderson, however, sees this Triple Crown a bit differently. Anderson, who represents Orb’s pilot, Joel Rosario, said he believes the Preakness is the Derby winner’s greatest obstacle.

“The run (Orb) put in was breathtaking,” Anderson said soon after the Derby. “Listen, this horse has the chance to win all three races. If he gets by the Preakness, this could be it. He is a natural 11⁄2-mile horse.”

The challenge with the Preakness, said Anderson, is that it’s run only two weeks after the Derby.

“It’s the toughest one for me,” he said. “A lot of horses go flat in the second race.”

Anderson has had some experience with near misses. He managed Gary Stevens when the rider hit two out of three in 1995 with Thunder Gulch (Kentucky Derby and Belmont) and again in 1997 with Silver Charm (Kentucky Derby and Preakness). Anderson also managed the late Chris Antley when he won the Kentucky Derby and Preakness on Charismatic in 1999, then finished third in the Belmont.

Trainer Shug McGaughey seems almost giddy about how Orb is doing heading into the Preakness. During a video interview shown by the New York Racing Association, the trainer must have used the words “thrilled” or “spectacular” about a half-dozen times.

“It sent cold chills up my back,” he said about Orb’s work May 13, going a half-mile in :47.18 at Belmont Park. “From the eighth pole to the wire when I looked down and saw :11 and change, with the way he was going, I was surprised. It is a tribute to the way he came out of the Derby. The way he did it, he wouldn’t have blown out a match afterward. Horses that are supposed to be good horses do things like that. Right now I’m on Cloud Nine.”

McGaughey said he also sees more challenges with the Preakness because of having to relocate the stable temporarily.

“We have to go to a new barn. We have to pack up and do it all over again,” he said. “I was glad to get back to Belmont where he is comfortable and I’m comfortable.”

Clear the Preakness obstacle, and Anderson said he sees no reason that Orb can’t sweep the series.

“He is bred to run that far, and he is in the right hands,” Anderson said. “Maybe this is the year for the magic.”

(Read more about Ron Anderson on page 28.)

McGaughey's Wait - by Eric Mitchell

2013-05-08T20:12:00Z

(Originally published in the May 11, 2013 issue of The Blood-Horse magazine. Feel free to share your own thoughts and opinions at the bottom of the column.)

By Eric Mitchell - @BH_EMitchell on Twitter

Trainer Shug McGaughey is pacing the shedrow of Barn 43.

Fifteen dragging minutes to go before contenders for the 139th Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (gr. I) are required to assemble at the gap at Churchill Downs' mile chute and make the walkover to the paddock.

Standing patiently in stall 1 is Orb, a classic-looking son of Malibu Moon, who represents McGaughey’s best chance since 1989 to win America’s biggest race. That year he brought Ogden Phipps’ homebred juvenile champion and Wood Memorial Invitational Stakes (gr. I) winner Easy Goer to Louisville.

As the minutes crawl by, McGaughey mulls some unpleasant parallels between the Derby in front of him and the trip in 1989 when Easy Goer, co-favorite with stablemate Awe Inspiring, finished second to Sunday Silence. Easy Goer's rider Pat Day said afterward he felt the footing played a big role in the loss. Though not as cold as it was 24 years ago, an all-day rain has been soaking Churchill Downs since 10 a.m., turning the main track to slop.

"It did come to mind several times," the Hall of Fame trainer would say later. "A day like today might have cost me one Kentucky Derby; maybe it will turn around and help us today. I've come to the Derby two times with what I thought were great, big chances and it rained both times."

The drizzle stops about a half-hour before post time, but the damage has been done. Adding to the gloom, McGaughey had to scratch top turf runner Point of Entry earlier in the day from the Woodford Reserve Turf Classic (gr. IT), short-circuiting a highly anticipated showdown with reigning Horse of the Year Wise Dan.

Rain. Scratches. Slop. Despite how good everything has gone since Orb arrived in Louisville, the events of the day allow doubts to seep in.

The minutes before the walkover creep, and the weight of the moment is squeezing the conversation out of everyone--McGaughey, his sons Reeve and Chip, exercise rider Jenn Patterson, and assistant trainer Robbie Medina.

McGaughey can't keep still. He stops in front of Orb’s stall for a moment without saying a word, then takes another walk down the shedrow. The colt has done nothing but thrive since shipping to Churchill Downs April 21. Some who watched Orb unload said he looked like he had been bronzed, he looked so good. But McGaughey, 34 years into his training career, has been here before and knows the Derby is a quest fraught with unpredictability.

There is nothing left to do but wait. The miles have been put in and the preps that put Orb here--victories in the Besilu Stables Fountain of Youth (gr. II) and Besilu Stables Florida Derby (gr. I)--have stamped him as the legitimate favorite, which carries its own burden. Just ask Eddie and Laurie Plesa, whose Derby contender Itsmyluckyday was christened an early favorite after beating Shanghai Bobby in the Holy Bull Stakes (gr. III).

"i've never felt the pressure that I felt going into the Florida Derby," Laurie Plesa said a few days before the Kentucky Derby. "It didn't stop."

A couple of distractions break up the tension--and the waiting. NBC correspondent Kenny Rice does a short interview with McGaughey. Hall of Fame jockey Chris McCarron stops by to introduce a few people. The Jefferson County sheriff’s deputy who has been guarding McGaughey's barn stops by, too, and offers his best wishes. McGaughey shakes his hand and thanks him for the long hours he’s logged all week.

"You're a class act. Good luck," the deputy tells McGaughey.

At last, the time has come. Patterson puts Orb’s bridle on him and fits a halter over it for the walkover. Medina asks McGaughey if they should put a blanket over Orb.

“Wouldn’t hurt,” the trainer says and a white blanket with red trim is draped across the bay colt’s back in the shedrow. The colt is calm, poised, and ready.

McGaughey gives a once-over to everyone and everything.

"It's time. Let's go," he says.

A couple of hours later a visibly relieved McGaughey is asked how winning the Kentucky Derby will change his life.

"The way it is going to change my life is that I’m not going to have to worry about it anymore," he says. "I've worried about it for awhile. I might not have let anyone know that, but that thought was always there."

And Or'’s chances in the Preakness Stakes (gr. I)?

"To tell you the truth, I can't wait," McGaughey says.

Big Cat, Big Picture - by Evan Hammonds

2013-04-30T17:17:00Z

(Originally published in the May 4, 2013 issue of The Blood-Horse magazine. Feel free to share your own thoughts and opinions at the bottom of the column.)

By Evan Hammonds - @BH_EHammonds on Twitter

The April 25 death of Storm Cat at 30 at Overbrook Farm near Lexington doesn’t close the book on the greatest North American stallion of the last 20 years. The saga is far from over. As a super sire of sires—just like his grandsire Northern Dancer—his name will live in the pedigrees of top horses for generations to come.

The saga continues in large part due to his breeder and owner, William T. Young of Lexington, who believed in the horse, stood the horse, and helped shape Storm Cat’s career as a stallion. Young’s business principles that helped carry him to great success in Central Kentucky also carried him to the pinnacle of the sport he so dearly loved.

“The legacy of Storm Cat as far as Overbrook and Mr. Young is the one quote in the press release (of the horse’s death) that read ‘Storm Cat made Mr. Young look like a genius,’ ” said Ric Waldman, who was brought in by Young to manage Storm Cat’s stallion career. “Well, Mr. Young was a genius.”

Young had originally offered to sell Storm Cat as a yearling and the youngster was entered in the Keeneland July select yearling sale in 1984 but tested positive for equine viral arteritis (EVA). Keeneland officials offered to put Storm Cat in the September sale, but Young balked and decided to race the colt himself.

Few expected greatness when Storm Cat took up residency as one of two stallions at Overbrook in the winter of 1988, nearly 21⁄2 years removed from his best racing efforts at the end of his 2-year-old year in 1985 that included a heart-stopping nose loss in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (gr. I).

That span is a lifetime when a stallion operator is beating the bushes for suitable mates. As he had in the business world, Young stayed the course.

“Storm Cat wasn’t well received early on, but Mr. Young’s confidence in Storm Cat never wavered,” Waldman said. “He always believed in him.

“Any of the rest of us who had Storm Cat might have sold him or certainly might have laid off some ownership in him when he started at stud, but Mr. Young always saw the big picture and wasn’t afraid to take a risk and Storm Cat confirmed Mr. Young’s belief and confidence and willingness.”

What followed was the “big story.”

Despite the leading sire and broodmare sire titles, 180 stakes winners, and his command in the sales arena, Storm Cat wasn’t without his detractors. Some students of conformation would cringe with the mere mention of the name Storm Cat. Waldman acknowledges that.

“The big one was the off-set knees, but nowadays the market has become more accepting,” he said. “The market certainly became more accepting of off-set knees on Storm Cat progeny at the sales, but also ifyou really want to criticize and you are looking at his balance from the profile, his neck might have been a touch short for the rest of his body, but he did have some body.

“Everybody wants to focus on those flaws he passed on, but his offspring ran so well with them, I’d like to look at the strengths. He really did pass on a body and, of course, the will to win, and the heart, and the energy and determination.”

Waldman, who managed the stallion book of not only two-time leading sire Storm Cat but also two-time leading sire Deputy Minister, is the type of guy we’ve always considered “one of the smartest guys in the room.” He summed up Storm Cat’s legacy succinctly:

“In spite of all the difficulty Storm Cat had and the insurmountable odds he had against him, he still succeeded. Man did everything man could to keep him from being a success, but a stallion who is meant to be a success to the extent that Storm Cat was, will succeed in spite of man’s intervention.”

Wild Card for Fillies - by Eric Mitchell

2013-04-23T18:21:00Z

(Originally published in the April 23, 2013 issue of The Blood-Horse magazine. Feel free to share your own thoughts and opinions at the bottom of the column.)

By Eric Mitchell - @BH_EMitchell on Twitter

The Road to the Kentucky Derby (gr. I) points system seems to have survived its inaugural year without generating much controversy. The leading contenders appear to be a solid group that have been steadily improving through the late winter and early spring.

Buzzing in the background, however, are several suggested tweaks that many would like Churchill Downs to consider. Several owners and trainers continue to view the 10-point assignment given the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (gr. I) as an excessive knock against a race that typically crowns the 2-year-old champion for the year.

Part of the joy for racing fans is to watch racing’s stars compete in the biggest races, so awarding a few more points to the Juvenile would certainly leave the Kentucky Derby door open for a horse with a strong following. Granted, had last year’s juvenile champion Shanghai Bobby stayed healthy, the 24 points accumulated by the son of Harlan’s Holiday looks like it would have been enough to put him into the field.

At the beginning of the year, 30 points was the anticipated minimum number of points required to get into the Derby, but the horses occupying slots 20 through 24 all have 20 points. They are, as of April 22, Den’s Legacy, who has placed in three graded races this year; Charming Kitten, who finished third in the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes (gr. I); Winning Cause, winner of the Coolmore Lexington Stakes (gr. III); Code West, second in the Risen Star Stakes (gr. II); and Tiz a Minister, third in the San Felipe Stakes (gr. II).

Perhaps the biggest disappointment with the new system is the extra barrier put in front of exceptionally talented fillies. We understand the argument—let the fillies get tested against the boys during the prep season, and if they belong, they’ll earn the points to get in.

But it still leaves the door solidly shut for an owner whose filly has performed so exceptionally well against her own sex that she deserves a shot at the blanket of roses.

Dreaming of Julia, who won the Gulfstream Oaks (gr. II) by 213⁄4 lengths, is this year’s poster child for Churchill Downs to consider a “Filly Option” in its points program. The daughter of A.P. Indy not only won the Oaks so decisively, but ran 1 1⁄8 miles nearly two seconds faster than the boys later on the card in the Besilu Stables Florida Derby (gr. I). The final time for the Oaks was 1:48.97 while Orb hit the wire in the Florida Derby at 1:50.87.

We believe a case could be made for implementing a wild card in the 20th slot. Among the colts with 20 points, only Winning Cause is a graded stakes winner. Whom would fans want to see most in that spot? A grade III winner or a grade I-winning filly that won a prestigious graded stakes by more than 21 lengths?

Fillies also are good for handle. When Genuine Risk won the Kentucky Derby in 1980, the Derby handle was up 4% from the previous year. Wagering on the Derby when Winning Colors won in 1988 rose 15.5% from the previous year and, more telling, fell 8.1% the following year. The Derby handle was a record $12,118,527 in 2008 when ill-fated Eight Belles faced Big Brown. In 2009 the Derby handle dropped 19.2% but that likely had more to do with a collapsing world economy than anything else.

No question, though, a talented filly going up against the boys generates a lot of excitement. The wild card option would be just that, an option; one that preserves the ultimate goal of the new points system to put the most deserving and talented field in the Derby gates.

Clarity and Cooperation - by Eric Mitchell

2013-04-16T13:33:00Z

(Originally published in the April 20, 2013 issue of The Blood-Horse magazine. Feel free to share your own thoughts and opinions at the bottom of the column.)

By Eric Mitchell - @BH_EMitchell on Twitter

A couple of issues have surfaced related to cases of sudden death in California racehorses.

One, the state could do a better job in how it presents its plethora of statistics on racehorse injuries, and second, horsemen clearly have an opportunity to help the equine medical community narrow down the potential causes behind these sudden deaths.

California certainly has no shortage of statistics on equine injuries and is the nation’s indisputable leader in this area. The Postmortem Examination Program was established at UC-Davis in 1990 to further enhance the ability to analyze and prevent racing injuries. Because of this program, all horses that die at California tracks are examined at one of the California Animal Health and Food Safety Laboratories.

A compilation of the injury statistics is published annually. In the latest report for fiscal year 2012, the report noted a rise in the number of sudden deaths attributed to cardiac failure. A summary paragraph in a section titled “Other Organ Systems Affected by Injuries” states: “During this period there were 11 cases of sudden death due to cardiac failure. This represents an increase from four horses with this diagnosis during 2008-09 and six with the same diagnosis in 2010-11.”

Certainly, it appears significant when the number of cardiac failures is about double of what has been reported in previous years.

Except, apparently, it isn’t.

“Any variation is really magnified but all these numbers average out over time,” said Dr. Rick Arthur, equine medical director for the California Horse Racing Board. “Here is what the problem is…this is a very technical area. It is not black and white. For years, these postmortem annual reports were not published because there was concern they would cause more problems. The subtleties go over most people’s heads.”

No one will question that medical forensics is a challenging field because of the complex nature of intertwined biological systems that are influenced by a lot of variables—time, temperature, legal and illegal medications, and physiological peculiarities among individual horses.

But isn’t the purpose of any annual report to distill complex issues and statistics into their essence so the state leaders—who are not pathologists, toxicologists, or veterinarians—can make educated decisions based on what’s presented? So if an annual report goes out of its way to note an increase in a certain area, it should also note if the increase is statistically meaningful. Data should always be presented in context, and not just for racing commissioners. Horsemen and owners should also have the benefit of understanding the trends that affect their livelihoods and their investments, respectively.

This leads us to the second point.

Dr. Francisco Uzal, a professor of clinical diagnostic pathology at UC-Davis, said in a presentation before the CHRB Medication and Track Safety Committee Feb. 20 that the most recent cases of sudden death were particularly puzzling.

“Without an explanation we don’t know why this happens, but these are horses that are healthy...and they fall dead,” Uzal said. “And we’ve done extensive work; more than diagnostic work, we’ve done research. And we still don’t know exactly what’s happening.”

One piece of the puzzle missing, however, is consistently getting a list of any medications or supplements these deceased horses had been receiving.

“One of the issues that we, the pathologists, have (is) we are not clinicians. We see the horses when they are dead. So if anybody has any idea or anybody thinks, ‘Hey, what do you think about this drug or about this medication?’ Talk to us,” Uzal told the committee members. “The information on medication we get is still sketchy.”

Uzal later added that acquiring medication histories is “critical” in identifying the causes of sudden deaths.

Expecting state agencies to change how they produce annual reports is probably a longshot, but clearly California horsemen have an opportunity to step up. Disclosing medications and supplements could help solve the mystery shrouding these sudden death cases. The result could be fewer horses dying, fewer riders injured, and a better image for the sport. So what’s holding them back?

Uniform Security - by Eric Mitchell

2013-04-09T12:50:00Z

(Originally published in the April 13, 2013 issue of The Blood-Horse magazine. Feel free to share your own thoughts and opinions at the bottom of the column.)

By Eric Mitchell - @BH_EMitchell on Twitter

Enhanced security measures for both the Wood Memorial Stakes (gr. I) and Santa Anita Derby (gr. I) were announced and implemented three days prior to these important Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (gr. I) prep races.

Santa Anita extended its regular six-hour surveillance period to 72 hours just for the eight horses entered in its marquee race April 6. Surveillance meant having security guards maintain a log of who goes in and out of the barns and to collect the syringes used for any medications administered.

New York also began its monitoring of the 10 horses entered in the Wood Memorial April 3 and took blood samples for out-of-competition drug testing.

“NYRA’s mission statement, ‘meeting the highest standards in Thoroughbred racing and equine safety,’ is exemplified by these additional steps for one of our most important stakes,” said David Skorton, chairman of the recently created New York Racing Association Reorganization Board.

Increased security around high-profile stakes races is certainly admirable, but this kind of one-off ramping up of security begs the question—is racing’s day-to-day security inadequate?

And if the extra security ensures the highest standard for biggest races, why not apply it at least to the other stakes races on the undercards. Aqueduct ran four other graded stakes (grade I Carter Handicap, grade II Ruffian Handicap, grade II Gazelle Stakes, and the grade III Bay Shore Stakes) with a total of 28 horses entered. Santa Anita ran three graded stakes (grade I Santa Anita Oaks, grade II Potrero Grande Stakes, and the grade III Providencia Stakes) and one ungraded stakes, the Thunder Road Stakes, for which 31 horses had been entered. None of the extra security covered any of these horses.

Security at racetracks has simply been too reactionary. NYRA set up a detention barn system in 2005 on the heels of a case involving trainer Greg Martin and milkshaking (tubing horses with a bicarbonate solution to reduce fatigue during a race).
“We think it is an important step in improving the integrity of racing,” said NYRA’s then-president Charlie Hayward.

The detention barn system lasted until 2010 when NYRA announced the barn would be replaced by an in-house drug testing program that utilized state-of-the-art science, technology, and procedural processes. It was reported at the time that NYRA’s new robust testing regimen would be accompanied by equally robust mandatory penalties for trainers whose horses tested positive for illegal drugs.

That is until May 24, 2012, when the California Horse Racing Board handed trainer Doug O’Neill a conditional 45-day suspension for milkshaking. Less than two weeks later NYRA announced it was implementing a new set of security protocols for horses entered in the Belmont Stakes (gr. I), which included O’Neill’s Triple Crown title hopeful I’ll Have Another. All Belmont entries had to stable in a special “stakes barn” where they would be more closely monitored than any other horses on the expansive Belmont Park backside.

Trainer Michael Matz said it best when the stakes barn had been announced and disrupted the training and shipping schedule for his Belmont contender and eventual winner Union Rags: “...what I’m disappointed in most is the lack of uniformity. What’s good for New York should be good for Maryland, and what’s good for Maryland should be good for Kentucky.”

Security at a racetrack is essential, but it should not be influenced so easily by individual cases or focus only on individual races. If integrity is the goal, then forget 72 hours of security versus six hours. Instead the focus should be on implementing a consistent, reliable system for all tracks, all horses, and all races 365 days a year.

The World's Horse - by Eric Mitchell

2013-04-02T12:53:00Z

(Originally published in the April 6, 2013 issue of The Blood-Horse magazine. Feel free to share your own thoughts and opinions at the bottom of the column.)

By Eric Mitchell - @BH_EMitchell on Twitter

Some American racing fans likely got their backs up as the Australian national anthem played March 30 in honor of Animal Kingdom’s victory in the Dubai World Cup Sponsored by Emirates Airline (UAE-I).

After all, here was our American-bred Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (gr. I) winner being feted on one of international racing’s biggest stages without so much as a glimpse of the Stars and Stripes. Arrowfield Stud’s owner John Messara, however, bought a 75% interest in the American champion along with the breeding rights prior to the World Cup, so he’s entitled to have his native Australia’s anthem played.

The truth is, though, Animal Kingdom is the world’s horse. Though bred in Kentucky, the son of Leroidesanimaux has horses bred in five other countries within the first three generations of his pedigree. Leroidesanimaux (now standing at HallMarc Stallions at Stonewall Farms near Ocala, Fla.) was bred in Brazil, his grandsire Blushing Groom was bred in France, and his dam, Dissemble, was bred in Great Britain. Animal Kingdom’s dam, Dalicia, was bred in Germany and is out of the Irish-bred mare Dynamis.

The 5-year-old Animal Kingdom was bred and raced by Barry Irwin’s Team Valor International before being sold to Messara.

While it is difficult to watch America’s champions go to farms overseas, being owned by Messara puts Animal Kingdom in a good spot to accomplish something no other horse has done—win a grade/group I stakes on four continents. This feat will be possible only if Messara follows through with a comment published March 31 in The Daily Telegraph: that the World Cup winner could continue racing for another 12 months.

The immediate goal is Royal Ascot, where Animal Kingdom will be aimed in mid-June for the Prince of Wales’s Stakes (Eng-I) or the Queen Anne Stakes (Eng-I). If the striking chestnut wins at Ascot, then he joins St Nicholas Abbey, Invasor, and Singspiel in having won a grade/group I race on three continents.

St Nicholas Abbey just passed this milestone March 30 when he won the Dubai Sheema Classic Presented by Longines (UAE-I) on the World Cup card. The son of Montjeu has also won three group I races in Europe (Racing Post Trophy, Investec Coronation Cup, and the Investec Diamond Jubilee Cup, all in England) and won the 2011 Emirates Airline Breeders’ Cup Turf (gr. IT) at Churchill Downs. Invasor won three group I races in Uruguay in 2005 before he was shipped to the U.S. in 2006 where he roared through four grade I stakes, including the Breeders’ Cup Classic-Powered by Dodge. He went on to win the 2007 Dubai World Cup. Singspiel won his first grade I in the 1996 Canadian International Stakes at Woodbine Race Course and finished the year with a win in the Japan Cup (Jpn-I). In 1997 Singspiel won the group I Vodafone Coronation Cup Stakes at Epsom and the Juddmonte International Stakes at York.

If Animal Kingdom wins at Royal Ascot, then the road forks for Messara.

Down one path is retirement, but the other offers a special opportunity. Racing NSW (New South Wales), of which Messara is chairman, is planning a Breeders’ Cup World Championships-style meeting in the fall at Royal Randwick. The meet will include the $2 million Queen Elizabeth Stakes (Aus-I), run at 2,000 meters—the same distance as the World Cup and comparable to the Kentucky Derby.

“In my heart of hearts, I’d like to see him in the Queen Elizabeth Stakes; it would be an ideal race,” Messara told The Daily Telegraph. “He likes the turf, and a group I over 2,000 meters at Randwick would certainly suit the horse.

“The way he won the World Cup also suggests to me he would be hard to beat in the Cox Plate,” he added, referring to the important group I prep for the Melbourne Cup (Aus-I). “It is more a question of working out the logistics of it all.”

Animal Kingdom has certainly done enough to justify retirement, but we’re rooting for Messara to take the sporting path after Ascot. Let’s give the world’s horse a chance to do something the world has never seen before.

John Messara comments on Animal Kingdom's win following the Dubai World Cup:

Site Prep - by Eric Mitchell

2013-03-27T13:59:00Z

(Originally published in the March 30, 2013 issue of The Blood-Horse magazine. Feel free to share your own thoughts and opinions at the bottom of the column.)

By Eric Mitchell - @BH_EMitchell on Twitter

For three years the owners of MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, N.J.—home of the New York Giants and New York Jets—have been planning for the 2014 Super Bowl. With that kind of time, the host can line up world-class entertainers and work with local cities to coordinate other events for the thousands of fans who’ll attend the NFL’s championship game.

Owners of the University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale, Ariz., have the same luxury of time because they already know they’ll be hosting the Super Bowl in 2015.

Where will the Breeders’ Cup World Championships be in 2014? No one knows.

And when will the host for 2015 get the nod? Chances are it won’t be until the late spring or summer of 2014 unless the Breeders’ Cup board takes a different approach than has been the norm for much of the last six years.

Breeders’ Cup president and CEO Craig Fravel said last week he hopes the 2014 site will be selected within 45 days. If the announcement is made around the same time as the decision, then we should know the 2014 site right around the running of the Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (gr. I). It is possible then that the 2014 host will have several more months to plan than Santa Anita Park got for the 2012 championships. That announcement was made in August 2011.

Breeders’ Cup used to plan further ahead. In September 2001, for example, the board selected sites for 2002 through 2005. The last track to get more than two-years notice was Churchill Downs, when it was told in October 2008 that it would host the event in 2010.

Fravel said he agrees it’s preferable to identify sites further out but also said “like other things in racing, the process has become more complicated.

“We have been faced with several unforeseen circumstances such as the Magna bankruptcy, the NYRA bankruptcy, and management changes at The Stronach Group,” he said. “These are external factors that have forced us into what we have today. We would like to have a five-year announcement, but I can’t point to any time in recent history where that would have been possible.”

Other issues swirling in the background include the Breeders’ Cup’s continuing policy to prohibit the use of race-day Salix in juveniles and a desire by some to have one permanent site for the championships.

Federal law requires any racetrack to have horsemen’s approval before it can simulcast its races. Considering that many horsemen’s groups oppose the Salix ban, it seems unrealistic to expect a simulcast agreement to come easy for 2014 and beyond if the policy continues beyond this year.

Fravel would only say that board members have had informal conversations with horsemen’s groups but “no formal communication regarding the medication policy.”

Weighing the feasibility of a permanent home was part of Breeders’ Cup’s 2009 strategic plan, but Fravel would not say if this option is playing a role in the current selection of future sites.

“Since we don’t have a site selected, then all options are on the table, as they like to say in Middle East peace negotiations,” Fravel said.
Many people are keen to see the Breeders’ Cup go back to Belmont Park, which hasn’t hosted the event since 2005. Belmont was being considered for 2013 a couple of years ago, then the floor fell out from underneath the New York Racing Association. A takeout scandal escalated into a full-blown takeover by New York state through a three-year Reorganization Board.

Belmont may still be nothing more than a longshot for 2014 though NYRA’s handle numbers were strong in 2012. And perhaps the Reorganization Board has provided some stability.

Monmouth Park pursued the 2013 championships and is lobbying for 2014 with equal vigor. It would certainly be a nice double for New Jersey to host both the Super Bowl and Breeders’ Cup in the same year.

Regardless of where the championships go in 2014, it seems the sport’s marquee weekend is continually behind the eight ball on marketing and promotions because of its late selections.

Rotating the Breeders’ Cup to different tracks has been the right thing to do because it gives racing fans around the country an opportunity to be a part of the event and see the sport’s star athletes up close. But, as Fravel noted, the decisions being made are often shaped by turmoil. The Breeders’ Cup needs to eliminate much of the uncertainty in the selection process. Pick three or four sites and set up a regular rotation. Keep the championships in one place for two consecutive years if it helps. With a rotation set, the Breeders’ Cup can focus on developing long-term business relationships that could actually help grow the event. Think Triple Crown.

The Breeders’ Cup gets predictability, the fans get to see the stars, and everybody wins.

New Formula - by Evan Hammonds

2013-03-19T14:25:00Z

(Originally published in the March 16, 2013 issue of The Blood-Horse magazine. Feel free to share your own thoughts and opinions at the bottom of the column.)

By Evan Hammonds - @BH_EHammonds on Twitter

Certain iconic brands should never be messed with. The formula for Coca-Cola, Kentucky Fried Chicken’s secret recipe of 11 herbs and spices, and Saratoga quickly come to mind. On the flip side, other brands—fashion and the automobile industries, for example—are in constant flux, depending on the whims of the marketplace.

Buying and selling Thoroughbreds fall to the latter category. Keeneland announced a new sales format for its 2013 September yearling sale last week. Anyone listening to consignors and buyers in the early days of last year’s sale weren’t surprised.

Money dries up in hard economic times. Less demand sees foal crops shrink. Markets shift. That Keeneland is nimble enough to tweak the sale year after year shows the sale company’s attentiveness to its customers.

The main change for this fall’s auction is the redesign of the first four days that for years has offered yearlings considered at the top end of the crop. The approximate 950 yearlings on offer Sept. 9-12 will be called “Book One” yearlings. Following the traditional off day, Friday, Sept. 13, the sale will resume with a two-day Book Two, Sept. 14-15, and Books Three-Six, Sept. 16-20.

Last year 132 horses were part of a “super select” Book One that was offered Monday, Sept. 10, followed by a three-day Book 2 that ran Tuesday-Thursday. In 2011 the select Book One horses were sold during a pair of evening sessions on Sunday and Monday.

“Some people may think you ought to be able to pick out the good horses and have them in one session,” said Duncan Taylor of Taylor Made Sales Agency. “The problem is, when you’re picking them out, you don’t know how they’re going to vet; you don’t know how they’re going to grow in the next two or three months, and a lot of things change. It’s not as easy to get all the best horses in one session, but at least now you’ll get a great number of quality horses for the buyers to come look at. The buyers, hopefully, will show up for all four days because the horses will be evenly spread through the four days.”

If anything, the smaller Book One suffered from the perception it was only for the highest-end buyers in the marketplace with many buyers waiting to dive into the Book Two horses that they thought would be more affordable. With a one-day “super select” session, there wasn’t enough “critical mass” according to Michael Hernon, director of sales for Gainesway.

While the biggest impact comes at the upper-end of the market, the remainder of the sale figures to remain strong. The middle and lower ends have rebounded quite well over the last two years as Keeneland officials have excelled in bringing in foreign buyers to broaden the base for that segment of the market.

Gone—for now—are the black-tie affairs of selling select yearlings in Kentucky. Keeneland’s July yearling market withered and was discontinued after the 2002 auction.

“Markets change,” said Three Chimneys Farm’s Case Clay. “In 20 years we might be back at a select sale, but for now, and the market that is here, I think Keeneland has adapted well.”
The iconic brands always find a way.

Remembering Jessica Bell

We note with sadness the passing of Jessica Gay Bell March 14. Her husband of 60 years, John A. Bell III, passed away in February 2007. Together they had major impacts on the racing and local community, with John Bell guiding The Blood-Horse as president of The Blood-Horse Inc.

The couple developed Jonabell Farm on Bowman’s Mill Road—raising 1967 Horse of the Year Damascus and breeding and racing champion and Breeders’ Cup winner Epitome—and raised four children who are active pillars in the business today.

Her departure leaves Lexington, and the Thoroughbred industry, with a little less charm and a lot less grace.

Storm Warning - by Eric Mitchell

2013-03-12T15:57:00Z

(Originally published in the March 16, 2013 issue of The Blood-Horse magazine. Feel free to share your own thoughts and opinions at the bottom of the column.)

By Eric Mitchell - @BH_EMitchell on Twitter

Disputes over Thoroughbred racing dates are as endemic to South Florida as the sabal palm.

Ugly clashes among the three racetracks—Gulfstream Park, Calder Casino & Race Course, and at one time Hialeah Park—led to deregulation of racing schedules in 1988. Even with state regulators out of the mix, the battles have raged, featuring regular threats of running overlapping dates and brinkmanship. For most years since the racetracks have had to sort schedules out among themselves, sanity eventually prevailed and a compromise avoided disaster for the market and the horsemen.

This year, however, the arena is set and the gladiators are readying for the fight.

The most recent battle pits Gulfstream and Calder, who are locked into schedules that have them running head-to-head every weekend from July 6 through June 30, 2014. The racetracks sit only eight miles from each other.

Only a natural disaster or a possible agreement among the five pari-mutuel businesses operating within a 50-mile radius of the two tracks will allow the schedules to change.

Only once—in 1989—have two South Florida tracks run simultaneously. The results were predictably disastrous. Hialeah opened Nov. 19, expecting to run a 158-day fall-to-spring meet. Owner John Brunetti believed Hialeah could compete with Calder during its regular fall Tropical-at-Calder meet and then against Gulfstream in the winter and spring. Hialeah and Calder are 10 miles apart.

“I am here to tell you that I will do whatever is necessary, with money and resolve, to keep Hialeah alive,” Brunetti told reporters in the press box after the nine races opening day. “I don’t care what they do or what we do, we’re going to run here for the next 157 days. It’s a battle to the death.”

On that first head-to-head day, Hialeah attracted a crowd of 4,114 who bet $368,372. Calder had 10,286 fans who wagered $1,370,151. The next day (a Sunday), Hialeah’s attendance was 3,500 and the on-track handle $263,641. Calder’s Sunday crowd was 9,360 with an on-track handle of $1,164,732.

Twelve days later Brunetti contacted the Florida Pari-Mutuel Commission and requested an emergency meeting for the purpose of allowing Hialeah to end its meet immediately. Hialeah raced only 28 days and lost an estimated $65,000 per day. By 2001 Hialeah had stopped running Thoroughbreds altogether and lost its Thoroughbred permit. It reinvented itself in 2009 with Quarter Horse racing.

So here we are again.

Calder may be first out of the gate in this contest with its popular Summit of Speed card slated for the first head-to-head weekend. Long-term, however, Gulfstream is expected to come out on top, in part because Calder has not made many friends among the horsemen. In 2012 the track announced it wanted to charge off-season rent for stalls.

Regarding the face-off with Gulfstream, Calder executives have kept the conversation confrontational by indicating, though not by any formal means, that whoever ships from Calder to Gulfstream to run is not welcome back. Gulfstream, in the meantime, has promised stalls to all horsemen and said even during the busy winter months that accommodations will be made to house the South Florida regulars.

Most ironic is that this fight should erupt at the same time The Jockey Club’s subsidiary InCompass has completed an analytical tool for tracks to improve the scheduling of races in order to maximize the simulcast market handle.

“It has been well documented that our consumers are frustrated by overlapping post times of simulcast races and the use of this scheduling tool should help alleviate that problem,” said Brad Kimbrell, president of InCompass.

What about overlapping race meets? No tool fixes that.

Thoroughbred racing is likely to be the biggest loser in this battle. An already stretched horse population during the summer months will probably lead to mediocre racing at both tracks, lower handle, and less interest among fans. Florida horsemen are still holding out for some last-minute reprieve, perhaps in the form of a lease agreement between the Stronach Group, which owns Gulfstream, and Calder’s owner Churchill Downs Inc.

Without some kind of deal, brace yourself, South Florida.

“It will be a train wreck,” said Kent Stirling, executive director of the Florida Horsemen’s Benevolent & Protective Association. “The sport will lose, the fans will lose, and the horsemen will lose.”

Juvenile Speculation - by Evan Hammonds

2013-03-05T22:58:00Z

(Originally published in the March 9, 2013 issue of The Blood-Horse magazine. Feel free to share your own thoughts and opinions at the bottom of the column.)

By Evan Hammonds - @BH_EHammonds on Twitter

Thoroughbred racing fans had a busy weekend with lots of options from which to choose: the Gotham Stakes (gr. III) at Aqueduct heading a host of graded stakes on the undercard; the always popular, always tough Big ’Cap day card at Santa Anita Park; and handicapping to be done on the 3-year-old division with the second leg of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool closing March 3.

But others in the industry have already moved to another challenge. One of the better parlor games this time of year is handicapping the pending juvenile sales season and the 2-year-old set, gambling on which freshman sire will be the next big thing.

There is considerable speculation…with a lot at stake.

The conventional wisdom suggests the bigger a first-year stallion’s crop size, the better chance he will have. That’s true to a point, but quality and placement of youngsters are big factors. Stallion operators want to get sizable numbers of 2-year-olds scattered across the country to see where they fit best and have the greatest chance to get their initial win and, hopefully, more.

Last year six North American-based first-crop sires had 100 or more named 2-year-olds and, sure enough, all six finished in the top 10 on the freshman sire list by progeny earnings. The leader was Henrythenavigator, with more than $1.2 million in earnings from 45 runners from his 112-foal crop. The second- and third-place finishers, Spring At Last and Into Mischief, respectively, had far fewer juveniles. Spring At Last, who makes his home at WinStar Farm near Versailles, Ky., had 71 named 2-year-olds and was about $50,000 shy of the leader in progeny earnings. Into Mischief, with Delta Downs Jackpot Stakes (gr. III) winner Goldencents on his ledger, was about $60,000 off the pace with a scant 42 named juveniles.

A stallion’s performances at 2 may be indicative of his success at stud, but it’s not a prerequisite to juvenile sire greatness. Henrythenavigator, out of the highweighted 2-year-old filly in Ireland, was a group II winner in England during his first season on the track. Into Mischief, by four-time 2-year-old stakes winner Harlan’s Holiday, won the CashCall Futurity (gr. I) to polish off his initial campaign.
Spring At Last, on the other hand, was unraced at 2. Recent freshman sire leaders Congrats (2010), Offlee Wild (’09), and Tiznow (’05) had little or no juvenile form to speak of.

The February issue of The Blood-Horse MarketWatch offers plenty of insight into this year’s crop of up-and-comers. Fourteen freshman sires of 2013 have at least 50 named 2-year-olds, so we can figure those would have the best chances to break cleanly from the gate. The leaders by sheer numbers are Ashford Stud’s Dunkirk (by Unbridled’s Song) with 136 juveniles, followed by a duo of WinStar Farm stallions: Pioneerof the Nile (Empire Maker) with 100, Colonel John (Tiznow) with 86. Pin Oak Stud stallion Cowboy Cal (Giant’s Causeway) has 99 named 2-year-olds.

MarketWatch slices and dices reams of data about the crop in many different ways, including measuring the quality of the dam bred to the stallion by Comparable Index (average earnings of progeny produced from the mares) and Class Performance Index (compares a mare’s average earnings per start with the average earnings of other female runners of her age running in the same country during the same years). Based on those criteria (and 2011 racing data), commercial sires Fort Prado (El Prado), Cowboy Cal, Old Fashioned (Unbridled’s Song), and Zensational (Unbridled’s Song) rank high.

The Florida-based In Summation (Put It Back) and Yesbyjimminy (Yes It’s True) have high scores when considering the first-crop sire’s dam’s ability to sire 2-year-old winners. Old Fashioned and Zensational have among the highest percentages of dams who were 2-year-old winners themselves.

Based on looks as judged by end-users and pinhookers, foals by Colonel John made him the leading first-crop sire of sale yearlings based on average and median.

Now, let’s go to the races.

Double Takes - by Eric Mitchell

2013-02-26T15:35:00Z

(Originally published in the March 2, 2013 issue of The Blood-Horse magazine. Feel free to share your own thoughts and opinions at the bottom of the column.)

By Eric Mitchell - @BH_EMitchell on Twitter

The Feb. 23-24 racing weekend was rich with the start of the Road to the Kentucky Derby (gr. I) championship series and some deep fields contesting the Besilu Stables Fountain of Youth Stakes and the Risen Star Stakes (both grade II).

Action was doubly good for owner/breeder Stuart Janney III and breeder and former Kentucky governor Brereton C. Jones, who each watched a couple of horses they bred capture graded stakes.

Because he was in New Zealand, Janney didn’t get to witness in person his rare treat of back-to-back graded stakes victories Feb. 23 at Gulfstream Park. The good times began in race 10 when Data Link ran down pacesetter Joes Blazing Aaron in deep stretch to take the Canadian Turf Stakes (gr. IIIT). The one-mile contest was the season-opener for the 5-year-old son of War Front—Database, by Known Fact, who had won three graded stakes last year including the Maker’s 46 Mile Stakes (gr. IT) at Keeneland. Data Link started the 2012 season finishing third in the Canadian Turf Stakes.

In the following race, another late stretch drive by Orb in the Fountain of Youth turned the day from great to exceptional. Janney’s sophomore by Malibu Moon—Lady Liberty, by Unbridled, chased down favorite Violence to win by a half-length. Orb is the result of five generations of breeding by Janney and his parents. Stuart Janney and Phipps Stable, owned by his cousin Ogden Mills “Dinny” Phipps, co-bred Orb and his dam, Lady Liberty. Janney also bred Orb’s second dam Mesabi Maiden with Ogden Phipps. Janney’s parents bred Orb’s third, fourth, and fifth dams: Steel Maiden, Laughter, and Shenanigans, who is the dam of their great Ruffian.

Janney was reached a couple days after the race still basking in the glow of the victories.

"When you have two such wonderful victories, you reflect on how lucky you are and how many people were integral to the success," Janney said. Besides McGaughey's team, he gave credit to Claiborne Farm, where he boards his mares, and to Niall Brennan, who handles the breaking and training of Janney's yearlings. "It's really satisfying to have bred Data Link and Orb and watch them progress at every stage."

Jones, who owns Airdrie Stud near Midway, Ky., got his own breeding double over the weekend at Fair Grounds Race Course & Slots.

Homebred Mark Valeski got things rolling by winning the grade III Mineshaft Handicap, the second graded stakes victory of his career. The bay colt is a son of Airdrie’s Proud Citizen out of the Fortunate Prospect mare Pocho’s Dream Girl, a grade I-placed runner that Jones acquired at the 2000 Keeneland January mixed sale for $375,000.

Two races later a longshot named Ive Struck a Nerve electrified Fair Grounds spectators by winning the Risen Star at odds of 135-1, the largest win payout in the track’s history. Jones doesn’t race Ive Struck a Nerve, having sold the colt by Yankee Gentleman—Runaway, by Cryptoclearance, as a weanling for $1,700 at the 2010 Keeneland November breeding stock sale.
Still the pride is evident in Jones’ voice as he talks about the mating decisions behind both colts.

“We try to focus on brilliance, produce horses that have speed and are precocious but possess enough stamina to go two turns,” he said. These characteristics are what attracted Jones to Proud Citizen, who won at 2 and went on to finish second in the 2002 Kentucky Derby (gr. I) and third in the Preakness Stakes (gr. I).

Overall it was a big weekend for homebreds. Out of 23 stakes run, nine were won by homebreds. They were: Optimizer (breeder Brad Kelley’s Bluegrass Hall; owner Calumet Farm, leased by Kelley) in the Fair Grounds Handicap (gr. IIIT); Ain’t No Other (owner/breeder Tommy Town Thoroughbreds) in the Sensational Star Stakes; Countess Curlin (owner/breeder Stonestreet Stables) in the Island Fashion Stakes; Skip a Smile (owner/breeder Rose Mary Chandler) in the Jersey Village Stakes; Sunbean (owner/breeder Brittlyn Stable) in the Gentilly Stakes; and All About Allie (owner Sanders Brothers, bred by Roy Gene Sanders) in the Downthedustyroad Breeders’ Stakes.

“You know a lot of this is experimentation,” Jones said about breeding theory. “You don’t know. It is a mystery and that is what makes this such a great sport. I just crave it.”

Looking Like We Care - by Eric Mitchell

2013-02-20T14:26:00Z

(Originally published in the February 23, 2013 issue of The Blood-Horse magazine. Feel free to share your own thoughts and opinions at the bottom of the column.)

By Eric Mitchell - @BH_EMitchell on Twitter

“If your facility does not meet the standards that (fans) come to expect in their daily lives, they’re not going to come back.” – Russ Simons, managing partner at Venue Solutions Group.

Though spoken in 2009 at the annual University of Arizona Racing Symposium, Simons’ words still deliver a relevant and sobering message for the Thoroughbred racing industry. In too many cases our sport is trying to attract new fans with grossly outdated facilities.

The message horse racing is sending to new visitors with its dingy facilities, poor concessions, little fan education, and grandstands littered with losing pari-mutuel tickets is that we don’t care enough about our sport. If racetracks look like they don’t care, why should the new fan? We know the answer from Simons: They won’t.

Pimlico Race Course is the poster child for badly needed renovation, but interestingly its home state of Maryland also happens to offer some inspiration for turning things around.

The lesson horse racing can learn from Maryland is how to best use supplemental revenue from casinos. We need to keep in mind that casino dollars are indeed supplemental and will not lead to long-term growth if we only use them to boost purses. Higher purses are important and help keep owners in the game, but purses alone don’t improve the quality of the racing experience.

Maryland has taken the right approach by mandating that a portion of casino revenue go to a Racetrack Facility Renewal Account. According to the Maryland Department of Legislative Services, video lottery terminal revenue for purses is projected at $37.5 million in fiscal year 2013, $71.9 million in fiscal year 2015, and $82.6 million in fiscal year 2017. The racetrack improvement fund would earn $13.4 million in fiscal year 2013, $25.5 million in fiscal year 2015, and $29.2 million in fiscal year 2017.

Improving our racetracks so they become true entertainment venues will help attract fans and grow handle. Forget the Frank Stronach dream of surrounding a grandstand with concert halls and retail shops; we’re talking about just making the main grandstand itself a nicer place to be.

Look at what’s happened at Ascot since its renovation.

“A significant competitor of Ascot is Wimbledon,” said Paul Roberts, author and architecture consultant, referring to the internationally renowned Grand Slam tennis site in London. “People who are casually attending an event, going with their friends, when you look at the quality of facilities, you have to compete at that level. Ascot is driven by that leisure market. Racetrack attendance in England is increasing because what they’re offering is attractive to wagering fans, people who enjoy racing, casual fans, and people interested in the environment.”

Casino revenue currently is pouring into purse accounts, but that revenue stream is fickle. Casino revenue will always be vulnerable when states need to balance their budgets or look for ways to fund new programs without raising taxes. Racing needs to invest the money available now into improvements that will pay dividends over the long haul, like our competitors. Between 1989 and 2005, more than $53 billion was spent on capital improvements on U.S. casinos or in adding slot machines to racetracks. What a difference we would see if just a slice of that had been put toward making racing more inviting.

Racetracks and new modern stadiums are like neighboring restaurants; one is a dive and the food (the sport product) is good, but next door is a brighter place with more comfortable booths and entertainment that is just as good. Which is the fan going to choose?

Simons did offer some encouraging words. He said a racetrack doesn’t need a $100 million rooftop-to-apron renovation to improve its appeal. Smaller things such as offering card processors at concession stands, improved cleanliness, good lighting, better food, and graphics can make a big difference. And deliver a strong message to new fans.

Greater Expectations - by Evan Hammonds

2013-02-12T16:10:00Z

(Originally published in the February 16, 2013 issue of The Blood-Horse magazine. Feel free to share your own thoughts and opinions at the bottom of the column.)

By Evan Hammonds - @BH_EHammonds on Twitter

The Donn Handicap (gr. I) brought together its typically strong cast for Gulfstream Park’s signature race for the older male division Feb. 9. With the 7-year-olds Flat Out and Ducduc mixing it up with 6-year-old Citrus Kid and 8-year-old Pool Play, it brought to mind the 1990 boxing match between an aged George Foreman and Gerry Cooney that was dubbed the “Geezers at Caesars.” Foreman dropped Cooney twice during the exhibition’s second round—the fight lasting just a little longer than it took to run the nine-furlong Donn.

While the geezers were upstaged in the Donn by 4-year-olds sweeping the trifecta—Graydar, Bourbon Courage, and Take Charge Indy—it is encouraging to see so much experience in this year’s handicap division.

Most grade I-caliber males at their age have moved on to the breeding shed, where the start of the 2013 season in North America also got started over the weekend.
In Kentucky there is anticipation and some growing expectations heading into the breeding season on the heels of several years of double-digit percentage drops reported by The Jockey Club in its Report of Mares Bred. At WinStar Farm near Versailles, Ky., a brand-spanking-new stallion complex has a no vacancy sign (see page 10).

“The horses have settled in well,” said Elliott Walden, president and CEO of WinStar. “That was something of a concern. Distorted Humor hadn’t been out of his paddock in 10 years. It was nice to see him settle in.”

Ten years ago WinStar stood just three stallions: Distorted Humor, Tiznow, and Victory Gallop. With the recent addition of the Vinery Kentucky stallions, the farm’s 22-stallion roster has already outstripped its new 18-stall complex. A second barn has been remodeled for stallion use.

“Stallions have evolved to be the focus of our operation,” Walden said. “There have been a few things that have contributed to that. One is our racing program has produced a few of them (Colonel John, Drosselmeyer, and Super Saver come quickly to mind). The other thing has been the addition of (leading juvenile sire) Harlan’s Holiday and the four horses from Pauls Mill. The focus has been on trying to have a stronger presence in the stallion market.”

As for the coming season, Walden is mildly bullish.

“We got a lot of calls early on the horses and that’s typically a sign people are encouraged with the business,” he said. “We got calls in October and November and the past few years it had gotten a little later before we got those calls. We have quite a few of our stallions that have full books. People’s appetite for thinking about the breeding season and actually setting their mating plans has been sooner this year, which has been a positive.”

The breeding season could offer up a technical knockout in New York, where purses and state-bred award programs have ballooned since the opening of the Resorts World Casino New York City at Aqueduct in 2011. At least 10 new stallions are being added to the mix for 2013 in a market that has seen a sizable influx of mares over the past two years.

“There is a lot of competition, which is good, because the more stallions we have, the more mares we are going to get into the state,” said Becky Thomas of Sequel Stallions.

“With the money from slot revenue, you’ve got guys like Darley participating,” she said. “They have mares coming here that are in foal to their stallions—two are in foal to Bernardini—that will be here to support their stallion Girolamo.”

Kentucky’s major farms are now players in New York. Among those coming to the New York arena this year are Kentucky stallions that previously stood at Darley, Hill ‘n’ Dale, Lane’s End, and Pin Oak with exciting newcomers such as Boys At Tosconova, Rule, Smart Bid, and Soaring Empire.

Over the last few years the industry has proved it knows how to take a punch. During the coming breeding season we may see several stallions deliver some.

Watch Evan recap the Donn Handicap:

Chasing Points - by Eric Mitchell

2013-02-05T22:19:00Z

(Originally published in the February 9, 2013 issue of The Blood-Horse magazine. Feel free to share your own thoughts and opinions at the bottom of the column.)

By Eric Mitchell - @BH_EMitchell on Twitter

Thirty points. Under Churchill Downs’ new points system, 30 points is expected to be the minimum a horse will need to get into the 20-horse field for the May 4 Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (gr. I).

And if the points system works as intended, the field battling for the blanket of roses should include the best 3-year-olds in the country.

But at this point in the year, there are questions—particularly about whether the points system fits with the way most trainers are conditioning their horses heading into the Triple Crown.

Before this year, earnings in graded stakes were the criteria used to determine the Derby field. Stars as 2-year-olds didn’t have to run as much early in their 3-year-old seasons because they had already accumulated the earnings required to make the Derby lineup. The trend since 2007 has been to run Triple Crown contenders only twice before the Derby.

A couple of factors pushed Churchill Downs to abandon the graded earnings system and adopt a points system. First, the quality of stakes as judged by purse money was getting skewed as more states adopted casino gaming. Boyd Gaming has been offering $1 million for the grade III Delta Downs Jackpot Stakes for most years since 2002, assuring that the winner of the race would qualify for the Derby. Second, as the Thoroughbred Owners and Breeders Association talked openly two years ago about tying race-day medication policy to the graded status of a race, Churchill Downs’ executives got really uncomfortable.

“It could have been a problem if key races started losing their grades,” said Darren Rogers, senior director of communications and media services for Churchill Downs. “We realized we needed to have more control over this thing.”

So the points system was born, with its emphasis on 3-year-old racing. The Grey Goose Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (gr. I), for example, is among 19 “Kentucky Derby Prep Season” races worth 10-4-2-1 to the top four finishers. The same goes for the grade I Champagne Stakes, Dixiana Breeders’ Futurity, and the CashCall Futurity. The point value of these races is on par with the ungraded Smarty Jones Stakes.

Points don’t start ramping up until Feb. 23, the beginning of the “Kentucky Derby Championship Series.” Eight races in the first leg of the championship series (through to March 24) are valued at 50-20-10-5. Think of this section as the Sweet Sixteen of college basketball’s NCAA Tournament. The second leg of the championship series—the equivalent of the Elite Eight—includes seven races valued at 100-40-20-10; they are the Besilu Stables Florida Derby (gr. I), Louisiana Derby (gr. II), UAE Derby (UAE-II), Wood Memorial (gr. I), Santa Anita Derby (gr. I), Toyota Blue Grass Stakes (gr. I), and the Arkansas Derby (gr. I).

Right now, Shanghai Bobby is tied with Goldencents at the top of the points leaderboard, both with 24 points. The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner and 2-year-old champion male of last year is expected to pass on the Besilu Stables Fountain of Youth Stakes (gr. II) and have the Florida Derby be his last race before the Derby. If the son of Harlan’s Holiday runs into trouble in the Florida Derby and finishes worse than fourth, however, he might not make the Derby field.

Not seeing a healthy juvenile champion in the Derby is a big hole in the system.

“He only needs six points,” Rogers said about Shanghai Bobby. “If he can’t get six points between now and the Derby, then maybe he doesn’t belong.” Having said that, Rogers did say he recognizes the marketing value of having the champion in the field and added the system will need adjusting. Perhaps the value of the Juvenile could be bumped up or a bonus offered to the horse named as the juvenile champion.

The logic behind emphasizing the later races is understood, but there are problems here, too. Will trainers now be more concerned about winning one of a handful of prep races just to qualify for the Derby rather than focusing on building up their horses’ conditioning so they’re peaking in the Derby? Four weeks is a long time to keep these elite athletes in top form.

By focusing on the races for 3-year-olds, Rogers said the points system will identify the best horses and create more excitement leading up to the Derby because such a large part of the field isn’t set. Under the graded earnings system, he said there could have been 11-12 horses that were essential shoo-ins provided they stayed healthy. Now, he said, there will be more buildup and more anticipation.

The old system had its flaws, so we’re hoping the new points system can successfully patch those holes without replacing them with an entire new set. In 13 weeks, we’ll know.

Kentucky Horsepower - by Eric Mitchell

2013-01-29T13:58:00Z

(Originally published in the February 1, 2013 issue of The Blood-Horse magazine. Feel free to share your own thoughts and opinions at the bottom of the column.)

By Eric Mitchell - @BH_EMitchell on Twitter

The conclusion of a recent National Agricultural Statistics Service economic survey reaffirmed what we’ve known for many years—horses are big business in Kentucky.

Released last week, the 2012 Kentucky Equine Survey pegged the value of the state’s equine and equine-related assets at $23.4 billion for the 2011 calendar year. The state’s horse industry accounts for more than 14% of Kentucky’s total economic output (as assessed in 2010) and is larger than either real estate ($14.9 billion), health care ($14 billion), or retail trade ($10.3 billion), according to the 2012 Kentucky Economic Development Guide produced by BusinessClimate.com.

Kentucky is home to an estimated 242,400 horses, ponies, mules, and donkeys worth $6.3 billion. The estimated value of equine-related assets (which include land, buildings, vehicles, equipment, feed, tack, and clothing) is another $17.1 billion, according to the equine survey.

“This may well be the most significant body of work ever undertaken to estimate the economic significance of horses to Kentucky,” said Norman Luba, executive director of the North American Equine Ranching Information Council. The statewide equine survey, the first of this magnitude since 1977, was done with assistance from the University of Kentucky College of Agriculture and the Kentucky Horse Council.

Thoroughbreds are the prevalent breed in Kentucky, accounting for 25% of the 216,300 light horses in the state. Racing was the sixth-leading primary use of horses, with an estimated 15,000 in training. Ahead of racing were trail/pleasure riding (79,500), broodmares (38,000), idle/not working (33,000), competition/show (24,500) and young horses—yearlings/weanlings/foals (23,000).

On the business side of the equation, the survey identified 35,000 equine operations and 1.1 million acres devoted to equine use. Equine-related expenditures by these operations totaled around $1.2 billion in 2011, of which $839 million were operating expenses. These expenses fueled the economies of boarding, farrier services, veterinary clinics, feed sales, travel, training, shipping, etc. About 77% of these operating expenses were spent in Kentucky.

Kentucky’s horse industry has such a large economic footprint because of the imposing mass of horses and support services here. The concentration is such that the state has been able to weather many years of stiff and increasing competition from other states, particularly racing states that have bolstered their purses and breeding incentive programs with casino gambling. The next body blow to Kentucky will be delivered later this year when Cincinnati’s new downtown Horseshoe Casino opens its doors. Further jabs are coming because the old River Downs is being replaced with a new racino and more racinos are coming—one at Thistledown and two new facilities near Dayton and Youngstown.

This competition is eroding Kentucky’s critical mass, particularly among Thoroughbreds.

The Kentucky Horse Council last released an economic impact statement on the state’s horse industry in 2002. This study was not as in-depth as the one done recently or in 1977, but it provided a good barometer of where the industry stood at the time. In the 2002 study, the state had an estimated Thoroughbred population of 67,000 excluding the horses stabled at racetracks. Assuming the racing population was about the same as reported in the 2012 study (though it was likely higher), the total Thoroughbred population would have been around 82,000. In the 2012 study, the total Thoroughbred population including racing stock is estimated to be 69,000, a drop of 16% in 10 years.

At the risk of stating the obvious, the economic value lost by a dwindling Thoroughbred population will not be recovered by an increase in pleasure and show horses. Equine-related sales and farm income totaled around $1.1 billion in 2011 of which $501.3 million (46% of the total) came from Thoroughbred auction sales.

So, Frankfort, are you paying attention? A major industry affecting tens of thousands of jobs, billions in economic expenditures, and an important steward of the land is being threatened. Either step up and protect this vital industry or watch it slide away into the welcoming arms of other states.

Glorious Change - by Eric Mitchell

2013-01-23T18:40:00Z

(Originally published in the January 26, 2013 issue of The Blood-Horse magazine. Feel free to share your own thoughts and opinions at the bottom of the column.)

By Eric Mitchell - @BH_EMitchell on Twitter

A filly named Glorious Dancer caused two significant changes in the life of horseplayer Michael Beychok.

The first occurred Jan. 28, 2012, during the Daily Racing Form/NTRA National Handicapping Championship in Las Vegas.

Beychok, a political consultant from Baton Rouge, La., was coming down to the wire of the tournament needing to win at least $11 to finish on top. He was running neck and neck with Dave Flanzbaum, who had been leading throughout the second day of the two-day contest but started losing ground down the stretch. Beychok didn’t want to go for a horse worth 10-1 or more because he knew it greatly reduced his odds of success. Instead, he landed on Glorious Dancer, a 3-1 shot in an $8,000 claiming race at Golden Gate Fields.

The California-bred daughter of Roman Dancer offered a better probability of winning and, if she won, would give him just enough in cash. Beychok bet her to win and place.

She won by a nose and Beychok won the contest by $1, the closest margin ever in the 13-year history of the national tournament. The tournament victory earned Beychok $1 million.

The second change occurred about six weeks later when Beychok noticed Glorious Dancer was back in for a tag, this time for $6,250.

“I knew she only had a couple more starts if she kept dropping,” he said. “Then, who knows what would have happened to her?”

So Beychok claimed her.

“The horse changed not only my life—the money she won for me—but also changed the way I think about horse racing,” Beychok said. “I was a bet ’em and forget ’em player. If you didn’t become a sire or a broodmare, I just moved on to the next group of horses. Because she changed my life, I wanted to be sure her life was good for the rest of her life.”

Glorious Dancer went into the barn of trainer Steve Sherman. She raced three more times getting a win, a second, and a third. After her first start for Beychok, he ran her in races with much higher prices to dissuade other owners from claiming her away. Then she came up with a little injury.

Sherman told Beychok the now 5-year-old mare could be rested, rehabilitated, and put back in training, but he added they would always be facing the risk of losing her in a claim.

“Steve said he wanted me to think about it because he realized this wasn’t business to me, it was personal. I decided to retire her,” Beychok said.

Glorious Dancer was shipped to Louisiana and put in the care of the Louisiana Horse Rescue Association that will see if she has a potential second career ahead of her as a sport horse. If she doesn’t, then she’ll live out the rest of her life under Beychok’s care.

Beychok has been a fan of horse racing since he was 15 when an associate who worked in his father’s law firm in Baton Rouge—and had become like a big brother to Beychok—took him to the races. That litigator was James Carville, who would go on to become a political consultant and the lead strategist for U.S. President Bill Clinton.

Carville has recently moved back to Louisiana, and he and Beychok are frequent visitors to Fair Grounds Race Course & Slots.

Glorious Dancer wasn’t the first racehorse Beychok has owned. He’s been an owner off and on over the years, and today is the managing partner of That’s Me Stable, a racing partnership campaigning horses in Louisiana.

During the Eclipse Awards ceremony Jan. 19, Beychok was recognized as the Handicapper of the Year. He used his moment in the spotlight to urge all horseplayers to become more involved in aftercare, then challenged all NHC players in this year’s tournament Jan. 25-26 to donate a portion of whatever they win to an adoption or aftercare program. He has pledged to donate 10% of his winnings.

“(Horseplayers) don’t do enough and we should,” Beychok said a couple days after the Eclipse Awards. “We are as much a part of this business as anyone, but all we seem to do is complain. The more we can repair the sport’s image and improve the game, the better it will be for all of us.”

Recasting the Eclipse - by Eric Mitchell

2013-01-15T14:14:00Z

(Originally published in the January 19, 2013 issue of The Blood-Horse magazine. Feel free to share your own thoughts and opinions at the bottom of the column.)

By Eric Mitchell - @BH_EMitchell on Twitter

The Eclipse Awards ceremony has attracted its fair share of criticism over the years due to long speeches and an overall lack of buzz surrounding the event. Before the industry’s annual awards shindig could reinvent itself, however, someone needed to step up and break the mold.

Who better to wield the hammer than The Stronach Group? Shaking up Thoroughbred racing’s status quo has been company founder Frank Stronach’s aim since he dove headfirst into racetrack ownership in 1999. A search on the Internet of the terms “Stronach” and “maverick” returns more than 1.87 million Web pages.

Racetracks, Stronach has long lobbied, should become entertainment destinations. Nowhere has his vision been executed more strongly than at Gulfstream Park in South Florida, where Stronach leveled a 65-year-old grandstand that seated 22,000 people and replaced it with a Spanish mission-style building with 4,250 seats, of which 750 surround a new walking ring enhanced with a large central fountain. The reconstruction plan also included an adjacent “village” of retail shops, restaurants, and bars.

Naturally, Gulfstream Park is the venue taking on a major renovation of the Eclipse Awards. It will be the first racetrack ever to host the event that christens champions.

“We had contemplated going to a racetrack before, but no other racetrack had the facilities like Gulfstream,” said Keith Chamblin, senior vice president of marketing and industry relations for the National Thoroughbred Racing Association. It was the track’s Sport of Kings theater with its stage, terraced seating, lighting, and sound system that sold the pitch made to the NTRA by Gulfstream Park executives a year ago.

“There is no question that moving the event to a racetrack has allowed us to do more things than we could have done in the past,” Chamblin said. “It opens up other opportunities for more promotion to fans and the surrounding community.”

For Gulfstream Park the major goals were to make the event more exciting and more accessible to racing fans.

“We consider the Eclipse Awards to be the Academy Awards of horse racing, so we wanted the fans to be able to come out and see our superstars—the trainers and jockeys,” said Tim Ritvo, president of Gulfstream Park. “We wanted to extend the one special evening for the insiders to all the fans.”

Though the ballroom is sold out, racing fans can still be part of this year’s scene by watching the awards ceremony on television screens with cocktail in hand outside in the walking ring, in one of the track dining rooms, or even in a bar or restaurant in The Village at Gulfstream Park. The event is being broadcast live by HRTV.

Gulfstream has further enhanced the big night by organizing several charity fundraisers in the days leading up to Jan. 19. These include a golf tournament and celebrity poker tournament benefiting the Permanently Disabled Jockeys Fund, a slots tournament benefiting The Race for Education scholarship program and the Grayson-Jockey Club Research Foundation, and a “Cocktail Party Under the Stars” auction Jan. 18 benefiting the Gulfstream Thoroughbred Aftercare Program.

“This is the tip of the iceberg of what we can do going forward,” Chamblin said. “My hope is we can grow those events and have them establish their own days. I think we can raise a lot of money for some important causes.”

So what about next year? Typically the Eclipse Awards banquet bounces between the East and West coasts. Is Santa Anita Park, also owned by The Stronach Group and the host of next year’s Breeders’ Cup World Championships, on the radar to host the ’14 Eclipse Awards? Maybe.

Santa Anita’s FrontRunner dining room, while offering a great view, doesn’t have a central stage and all the technical necessities. But that doesn’t mean another way to hold the event on the grounds isn’t possible.

“We agreed to sit down next week, or immediately afterward, and talk about how it worked for Gulfstream Park and for the Eclipse Award partners,” Chamblin said. “We’ll talk about going back to Gulfstream in 2014 or the feasibility of partnering with The Stronach Group on something in Los Angeles.”

Somewhere other than Santa Anita?

“If you can make it work, there are a lot advantages to keeping it at the track,” he said.

A continuation of this year’s momentum is one of the biggest advantages. Hopefully, the Eclipse Awards can be recast and become in itself an event as exciting as the champions it crowns.

Doing the Right Thing - by Eric Mitchell

2013-01-08T14:00:00Z

(Originally published in the January 12, 2013 issue of The Blood-Horse magazine. Feel free to share your own thoughts and opinions at the bottom of the column.)

By Eric Mitchell - @BH_EMitchell on Twitter

Charity stallion season auctions don’t reveal much about the commercial market, but the Thoroughbred Charities of America’s annual event held this month did offer insights about the breeding community’s spirit heading into the 2013 season.

TCA is the charitable arm of the Thoroughbred Owners and Breeders Association. Its mission is to raise money for horse industry non-profits that work to provide a better life for Thoroughbreds, both during and after their racing careers, by supporting retirement, rescue, and research and by helping the people who work with them. Ninety-five percent of the money raised is distributed to other charities as grants.

No one would have been surprised had this year’s auction offered fewer donated stallion seasons or if fewer bidders had participated during the TCA telephone and live season auctions conducted Jan. 3-5. Afterall, the number of North American stallions and the number of mares bred in 2012 were down slightly from the previous year.

Donations, however, continued to be strong, equaling the donations made last year. The telephone auction offered more than 170 seasons coast-to-coast. The bidding was spirited, too, with the number of active bidders down by only a person or two. A rough estimate of $360,000 in gross bids were handled over the phone by volunteers Jan. 3-4. One particularly engaged bidder, according to TCA president Dan Rosenberg, called in from the bush on an African safari, checking in several times for updates on his bids.

“It has been tough over the past four years as stud fees dropped due to the recession,” Rosenberg said. “But this year the business is healthier, and the activity was good in all regions of the country.”

The energy was equally good during the TCA’s live auction Jan. 5 at the Keeneland Entertainment Center, where 22 seasons brought gross bids of more than $750,000. A late entry to the offerings was a season to Spendthrift Farm’s hot sire Into Mischief, who had runners pick up two additional graded stakes earlier in the day—the Sham Stakes (gr. III) won by Goldencents (out of Golden Works, by Banker’s Gold) and the Jerome Stakes (gr. II) won by Vyjack (out of Life Happened, by Stravinsky). The Into Mischief season sold for $19,500, a solid price considering the son of Harlan’s Holiday began the year priced at $10,000 (his fee has since been increased to $20,000 and his 2013 book is full). The evening’s top bid of $105,000 went for a season to Darley’s Medaglia d’Oro.

Even during the recent lean years, TCA’s auction has managed to raise more than $1.5 million annually. A key reason, said Rosenberg, is a more widespread awareness and appreciation for the TCA’s original mission of supporting Thoroughbred aftercare and adoption programs.

“The recession dramatically increased the number of abandoned and unwanted horses,” Rosenberg said. “There were more stories in the general press about these forgotten horses—Thoroughbreds and others—and the public rightfully called us on it. Now I think there is a greater understanding that ethically, and from a business standpoint, this is the right thing to do.”

Since its foundation in 1990, the TCA has expanded its support to include equine medical research and child care and educational programs for backstretch workers.

“For the first 15-20 years, (TCA) was just sounding the alarm,” Rosenberg said. “Now people have heard us, and they’re doing the right thing, for the horses and the people.”

New Year, New Look, and More - by Eric Mitchell

2013-01-02T14:37:00Z

(Originally published in the January 5, 2013 issue of The Blood-Horse magazine. Feel free to share your own thoughts and opinions at the bottom of the column.)

By Eric Mitchell - @BH_EMitchell on Twitter

In the natural world, form follows function. We took the same approach throughout most of 2012 in mapping out a redesign of Blood-Horse magazine, the results of that work you are now holding.

We created a magazine with each section tailored to the different ways we read news versus features and then wrapped the entire package in a fresher, more dynamic look. These changes are best illustrated by The Wire, our features section, and our race reports.

Clearly the publishing landscape has been forever changed as more people get their news via the Internet through computers, tablets, and smartphones. And yet, many Blood-Horse readers still rely on the magazine for updates on what is happening in Thoroughbred racing. What you’ll now find in The Wire are shorter, tighter stories of the previous week’s news combined with snapshots of other interesting and usable information. Many items published on the former Reminders page, such as TV schedules and the signs calendar, have been moved into The Wire for quick reference. Other important dates are being partnered with related content in the magazine—upcoming stakes will be included with racing coverage and upcoming sales dates will accompany sales stories.

Stallion news has also been incorporated into The Wire in a one-page format that provides an at-a-glance review of horses entering stud, stud fee changes, first winners and stakes winners, a breakout feature, and an overview of breeding stock news. The Wire has been constructed to be viewed and digested quickly.

When you have more time to spend, dive into our features, which will continue to offer rich, in-depth stories about key players in the racing and breeding industries, retrospectives on outstanding horses and prominent people, and thorough coverage and analysis of issues most important to the Thoroughbred community. Photographs will continue to receive the prominent display we’ve always valued over the years.

A new weekly feature debuts in this issue. The “Breeding” page (see pg. 28) will offer insightful pedigree analysis from prominent writers/consultants John Sparkman and Anne Peters, who will rotate their contributions issue to issue. This week Sparkman sheds light on the challenges faced by Juddmonte Farms/Banstead Manor as it launches the stud career of its high-profile champion Frankel.

Our racing coverage will continue focusing on the most interesting stories that unfold during the most prominent races around the globe. We’ll continue providing in every edition all the vital details you rely on in our stakes section, including our popular write-ups with each graded stakes that give you the stories behind the story. And we’ve added a twist. In the spirit of keeping related content together, we will now incorporate with each report on a prominent stakes the corresponding statistical snapshot normally found in the back, complete with a recap of the top three finishers, family notes on the winner, editorial write-up, and the winner’s pedigree. All the information you need to know about that race, you will now find in one place.

We hope you enjoy the new look and improved content of the Blood-Horse, but realize this is only the beginning. Look for improvements coming soon to BloodHorse.com and new products and services that will make following and participating in the sport of Thoroughbred racing easier than ever.

It is all part of Blood-Horse’s continuing mission to engage, educate, and entertain all members of the Thoroughbred racing community.

Partial Equilibrium - by Evan Hammonds

2012-12-19T02:48:00Z

(Originally published in the December 22, 2012 issue of The Blood-Horse magazine. Feel free to share your own thoughts and opinions at the bottom of the column.)

By Evan Hammonds - @BH_EHammonds on Twitter

It’s getting harder and harder these days to see the future in the crystal ball. With tax hikes looming—but who knows how much and when?—and proposed federal budget cuts of various shapes and sizes being bandied about by our elected leaders in Washington, what’s a horseman to do?

Well, here’s what little we do know: All things considered, 2012 was a pretty good year in the Thoroughbred auction arena. Crawling from the wreckage that began in 2008—and hopefully hit bottom in 2010—about $100 million more in sales transactions took place this year than when the market hit the skids in 2010. That year $617,283,616 changed hands at Thoroughbred sales while 2012’s receipts weigh in at $717,091,003. And commercial breeders saw some of their costs—at least in the form of stud fees—continue to decline.

Moving forward, those in the know are hopeful the market will continue to move in a positive direction. While nobody is expecting explosive growth or outrageous bidding wars to be taking place, leading sales company officials are looking for skies to continue to brighten.

“We have seen a stabilization of the market and some forward progress as well,” said Tom Ventura, president of the Ocala Breeders’ Sales Co. “The purses in New York have risen significantly and the market is reflecting that and it will continue to be a factor.”

“The further we get away from 2008, the better for everybody involved,” said Geoffrey Russell, director of sales for Keeneland.

“We’ll look for continued improvement at modest, increased levels,” said Boyd Browning, president of Fasig-Tipton. His sales company had a solid year with boutique yearling sales in Kentucky and New York, brisk trade for New York-bred yearlings at Saratoga Springs in August, and a November breeding stock sale highlighted by the $10 million sale of 2011 Horse of the Year Havre de Grace.

“I don’t think we’ll see a dramatic move in the marketplace,” Browning continued. “The slope of the line isn’t going to be steep. Hopefully, the United States and the world’s economy will stabilize and continue to show signs of improvement.”

The auction market got a big boost in 2011 with the record-setting dispersal of the late Edward P. Evans’ bloodstock, which moved some $70 million worth of top-level Thoroughbreds as savvy investors around the globe sought to upgrade. While the Fares Farm dispersal at Keeneland’s upcoming January mixed sale won’t nearly have the same impact, it should kick-start the 2013 selling season.

“January is going to be great,” said Walt Robertson, vice president of sales for Keeneland. “The dispersal’s not going to hurt. We had just under 1,600 horses last year, and we’ve got 2,000 this year. We have a decent amount of pretty good mares other than the ones from Fares.”

Also, the marketplace has been shored up by the reduced foal crop that has been shrinking since peaking at around 38,000 in 2005 and 2006. The sales yearling for 2013 will come from an estimated foal crop of 25,500, according to The Jockey Club.

“Supply and demand has been our enemy, and in both this year and the past year it was our friend,” said Robertson. “And it will continue to be our friend for a few years providing we don’t have any major hiccups with the economy.”

Another momentum mover will be the 2-year-old market. A hit-or-miss market for sure, the average for a sales juvenile did rise nearly 20% at the select sales last year. Also, the 2012 Triple Crown was swept by juvenile sales graduates I’ll Have Another and Union Rags. Their success should make a valuable marketing tool.

“Whenever you get high-profile horses like that to brag about, it certainly helps,” Ventura said. “Even bigger picture is the performance in general of the 2-year-old sales graduates. We had two Breeders’ Cup winners and a good second with Executiveprivilege in the Grey Goose Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (gr. I).”

“The perception of the 2-year-old sales has changed over the last 20 years,” Browning said. “It’s more legitimate now. Nowadays most significant buyers, if they’re thinking about winning Triple Crown races, better dang sure consider participating in the 2-year-old sales.”

And hopefully that participation will carry through the marketplace as 2013 unfolds.

Searching for Unity, Again - by Eric Mitchell

2012-12-11T18:11:00Z

(Originally published in the December 15, 2012 issue of The Blood-Horse magazine. Feel free to share your own thoughts and opinions at the bottom of the column.)

By Eric Mitchell - @BH_EMitchell on Twitter

When an NFL team builds a new stadium, fat with luxury suites and amenities that will generate multi-millions in additional revenue for the organization, none of the other NFL teams panic.

Other team owners aren’t wringing their hands because the new stadium will cannibalize their markets and erode support for their franchises. Instead, other team owners are wringing their hands in anticipation of what a new stadium could do for them. NFL team owners want to make as much money as they can within their markets because it gives them the financial muscle to obtain marquee players and have successful teams. Success translates into more valuable sponsorships, post-season revenues, and additional merchandise sales.

But this success doesn’t come at the expense of other teams. Even the smallest NFL market has a firm foundation through the league’s collective bargaining agreement that includes evenly shared revenue from television deals with NBC, Fox, CBS, ESPN, and DirectTV. According to Forbes.com, the average NFL team generated $276 million in revenue during the 2011 season...a sum that figures to grow. The broadcast networks will pay an annual average of $5 billion to the NFL beginning in 2014, up from an average of $4 billion paid at the end of the last TV contract.

Compare this scenario with the anxiety created when a Thoroughbred racing state without gaming watches casinos being built in a neighboring state. No one begrudges the windfall for the racing states with gaming, but there is no escaping the fact that the existing structure creates winners and losers within our industry. The purses and state incentive programs enhanced in one location attract new stallions, broodmares, and racing stock from somewhere else. These trends are discussed within this issue in our package on the “haves and have-nots,” which begins on page 3578.

A few states without gaming are holding their own so far, but they are definitely suffering from attrition.

We think back to the promise once held by the National Thoroughbred Racing Association’s “Go, Baby, Go” national marketing campaign and wonder whether racing shouldn’t make another collective attempt to sell itself with some assistance from gaming revenue. In the same way a popular NFL franchise such as the Dallas Cowboys helps boost the value of NFL TV rights for the league overall, the revenue from gaming-rich states could help boost the visibility and awareness of Thoroughbred racing nationwide.

Novices visiting a racetrack often feel lost and intimidated. Wouldn’t it help if every major racetrack had uniformly branded signs and manned kiosks whose sole mission was to educate, guide, and mentor the new fan? What if we had a national campaign generating awareness of the sport and directing visitors to look for these fan-friendly booths? The concept could even be tied and/or branded with The Jockey Club’s America’s Best Racing website and its ESPN GameDay-like national bus tour, which will launch next year.

National marketing is not going to slow the migration of broodmares and stallions, but it might soften the impact if some of the gaming revenue were helping grow the racing product in all states.

Earlier in the year The Blood-Horse explored the potential and obstacles surrounding a national racing office (The Blood-Horse of March 31, pg. 931). While the political obstacles to creating an entity in charge of everything from wagering to licensing to medication testing and enforcement are daunting, several people in the industry suggested a more narrowly targeted effort could be started in areas unrelated to wagering—such as media rights, sponsorship, and marketing, where there is broader consensus.

We know, the national marketing cooperative has been tried over and over…plans go back to the 1960s. At least the “Go, Baby, Go” campaign seemed to get a toe in the door before it slammed shut again. What’s at stake, though, if the Thoroughbred industry doesn’t keep working this problem? Further erosion in the long-term economic health of a $2.24 billion breeding industry, a $3 billion training industry, and a $5.4 billion racing and offtrack betting network, plus about 384,000 full-time jobs directly and indirectly associated with racing.

Maybe it’s a problem akin to achieving peace in the Middle East, but it seems to be a solution worth pursuing.

Focus on the Experience - by Eric Mitchell

2012-12-05T22:25:00Z

(Originally published in the December 8, 2012 issue of The Blood-Horse magazine. Feel free to share your own thoughts and opinions at the bottom of the column.)

By Eric Mitchell - @BH_EMitchell on Twitter

Gulfstream Park in South Florida has its eye on hosting another Breeders’ Cup World Championships and will invest hundreds of millions toward making it happen.

The Hallandale Beach, Fla., track has a history with racing’s championship series, having held the event in 1989, 1992, and 1999. Consideration of further Florida Breeders’ Cups collapsed with the Gulfstream Park grandstand in 2004, when owner Frank Stronach completely demolished and rebuilt the track. The vision at the time was to create a smaller venue more in line with today’s live attendance and provide adjacent retail to attract a greater variety of people. The $170 million renovation took the grandstand from a 20,000-seat capacity down to about 1,000. The total seating capacity of the new track, including restaurants and seating around the walking ring, was 5,000.

Since the renovation, changes have been made that have increased the seating, but at levels nowhere close to its former capacity.

Stronach has enjoyed having the Breeders’ Cup in a regular rotation at Santa Anita Park (it will be there again in 2013), but now he wants the event back in Florida.

In order to lure the Breeders’ Cup to the Sunshine State, the track has announced plans to build two new hotels facing the racetrack on either side of the existing grandstand and expand the seating capacity to 50,000, which would include table-side restaurant viewing and luxury suites. The cost has not been disclosed but will be in the hundreds of millions of dollars.

Since we haven’t been privy to any blueprints, we wonder how the 50,000 seats are going to be configured; how many are actually grandstand seats versus restaurant tables, luxury suites, and standing room only? Belmont Park’s grandstand, for instance, has a 30,000-seat capacity.

In order to accommodate the desire for Breeders’ Cup to sell tickets to a broad range of customers, it seems temporary seating may still be required for Gulfstream to handle a Championships crowd—which raises another question.

While Gulfstream Park and Breeders’ Cup have an eye on capacity, we hope they keep as sharp an eye on amenities. A racing fan may be thrilled to have a seat at the Championships, but that experience will quickly sour if there is no ready access to food, drink, restrooms, and mutuel windows. Just ask some of the fans who attended the Breeders’ Cup at Lone Star Park.

The event at Grand Prairie, Texas, was hailed as a success, but many fans vented afterward about long traffic lines, overflowing Porta Potties, concessions stands that ran out, and slow, inexperienced mutuel tellers.

So we offer a reminder that hosting the Championships requires more than providing a seat. In a sport that struggles daily to promote itself over the clamor of college and professional sports, the focus should be on the experience. A bad view of the racetrack can be mitigated with a decent meal, a cold libation, and access to a clean restroom.

The plans proposed by Gulfstream Park sound grand. Here’s hoping the improvements stretch far beyond just getting people into the racetrack and provide an entertaining, enjoyable experience that will make folks come back for more—and bring all their friends.

Breeders Get a Break - by Eric Mitchell

2012-11-27T14:31:00Z

(Originally published in the December 1, 2012 issue of The Blood-Horse magazine. Feel free to share your own thoughts and opinions at the bottom of the column.)

By Eric Mitchell - @BH_EMitchell on Twitter

A common refrain heard among Thoroughbred mare owners at this time of the year is that stud fees are too high.

This year, however, breeders should be feeling a bit less economic pressure. A cursory glance at the stud fees announced to date by North American stud farms shows the average stud fee among 289 stallions standing for $4,000 or more has decreased 6% to $14,590, down from an average of $15,525 for the same group during the 2012 season.

An average decline is good collectively for breeding farms’ bottom lines, but during the past few years declining stud fees have been largely among stallions that didn’t possess the greatest commercial appeal.

On this front there is more good news. Among 33 stallions (excluding first-year sires) that will stand for $30,000 or more in 2013, only eight are having their fees increased while six will have their fees lowered. The stallions with higher fees aren’t going to surprise anyone.

Ghostzapper (Awesome Again—Baby Zip) leads the pack by percentage change with a fee that is doubling from $20,000 to $40,000 for 2013. The 2004 Horse of the Year and champion older horse standing at Adena Springs, however, is represented by 13 new stakes winners in 2012, through Nov. 26. His stakes winners include 10 graded stakes winners, second only to Giant’s Causeway who has 13. Ghostzapper’s top earner of the year is the outstanding sophomore filly Contested, who won the TVG Acorn Stakes and the Test Stakes (both gr. I) and who later sold for $2.3 million at the Fasig-Tipton Kentucky November sale.

Hard Spun and Scat Daddy, who are battling it out at the top of the second-crop sire list just as they did as freshman sires last year, will have their fees increased by 50% and 71%, respectively. Darley’s Hard Spun will stand for $60,000 following a year that has produced 12 new stakes winners. The son of Danzig’s top runners include grade I winners Questing and Zo Impressive. Hard Spun’s career Northern Hemisphere progeny earnings through Nov. 26 (excluding Japan and Hong Kong) are $5,609,197. He will stand for $60,000 in 2013.

Ashford Stud’s Scat Daddy is $108,718 behind Hard Spun by progeny earnings and more than $2.7 million ahead of third-place sire English Channel. The son of Johannesburg has picked up four new stakes winners in 2012 and has six lifetime stakes winners with one of those being the brilliant Daddy Long Legs, who won the UAE Derby Sponsored by The Saeed & Mohammed Al Naboodah Group (UAE-II) and the Juddmonte Royal Lodge Stakes (Eng-II). His career earnings are more than $1.33 million. Scat Daddy’s fee will rise to $30,000 from $17,500 for the coming breeding season.

Other top sires with rising fees are Awesome Again (up 50% to $75,000), Harlan’s Holiday (up 40% to $35,000), War Front (up 33% to $80,000), Arch (up 33% to $40,000), and Exchange Rate (up 20% to $30,000).

Among the top stallions with fees coming down, Darley’s Street Cry is making the biggest drop. The 14-year-old son of Machiavellian is having his fee lowered 33% to $100,000. All of Street Cry’s group winners in 2012 were overseas—Carlton House in England, Princess Highway in England and Ireland, Falls of Lora in the United Arab Emirates, and Zaidan in Hong Kong. Still, Street Cry can warrant a six-figure fee with 61 career stakes winners and three champions.

Other top sires offering breeders a break are Stormy Atlantic (down 25% to $30,000), Unbridled’s Song (down 21.5% to $60,000), Candy Ride (down 20% to $40,000), Blame (down 14% to $30,000), and Mineshaft (down 14% to $30,000).

Not much has changed price-wise among the horses entering stud in 2013. Belmont Stakes (gr. I) winner Union Rags commands the top fee of $35,000, the same top-of-the-class price placed on Uncle Mo last year and the same levied for Blame, Lookin At Lucky, and Quality Road when they entered stud in 2011.

The market is still rewarding proven quality in favor of the promise of quality.

With the weanling market a bit softer than expected, breeders should relish a year with fees largely stable or even decreasing on some of the most desirable stallions.

The industry can only keep growing if the manufacturers are making profits that can be reinvested. The 2013 breeding season should be another positive step in that direction.

Tough Sell Ahead - by Eric Mitchell

2012-11-20T13:54:00Z

(Originally published in the November 24, 2012 issue of The Blood-Horse magazine. Feel free to share your own thoughts and opinions at the bottom of the column.)

By Eric Mitchell - @BH_EMitchell on Twitter

Kentucky's Thoroughbred industry will get another bite at the casino apple this year, but it is unlikely to get more than a nibble.

If we believe what we hear from Kentucky politicians, there is hope.

Democrat Gov. Steve Beshear, who championed this cause earlier in 2012 along with Republican Sen. Damon Thayer, has said he would like to see legislation introduced in January that would put a constitutional amendment on the ballot asking voters to approve casino gaming. If approved, the vote could not happen until 2014 at the earliest.

All too sobering is the realization that by the time Kentuckians might get around to simply voting for approval on the issue, a new downtown casino in Cincinnati will have already been operating for about 18 months. And prior to simply getting a chance to vote on the issue, another two years of money, and breeding and racing stock, will have leached out of Kentucky and into the racing programs of Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Indiana, and New York, and soon to fresh competitors Maryland and Ohio.

It is remarkable how little will there seems to be for aiding an industry with a $4 billion economic footprint and one that generates 80,000-100,000 jobs. One wouldn’t think people would have to push so hard to protect an industry of this magnitude, but apparently we do.

The likelihood of a ballot amendment passing next year is unfortunately slim.

One of the obstacles such an amendment could face next year would be the short session. In Kentucky the legislature meets only 30 days in odd-numbered years. The crush of legislation is expected to include some major issues such as pension reform, Medicaid and managed care issues, and tax reform. Many legislators, who would already rather stay clear of the casino issue, are not likely to see a pressing reason to get something done next year. Adding to the complications is a requirement that to pass any constitutional amendment during an odd year requires a supermajority in each house—that means 23 votes in the Senate and 60 votes in the House.

The issue could be tackled in 2014 during the regular session, which would provide some time for the Thoroughbred industry to get its own house in order.

Some disagreement is brewing over whether the constitutional amendment should include a 60-mile protective buffer between racetracks and casinos. Apparently, several legislators who may otherwise oppose the casino amendment would reconsider if the buffer went away—a “clean” amendment as it has been called; simply a vote yes or no to authorize casino gaming.

Many in the horse industry believe the buffer is essential. The problem is, it is a poison pill. If the buffer is pushed as an essential part of the amendment then the amendment may never get passed.

Unity in the industry is needed now more than ever.

Some tracks in Kentucky are willing to roll the dice and get casino gaming authorized first then worry later about diverting a share of the revenue to purses and breed incentive programs.

At least one obstacle has been eliminated and that is former Senate President David Williams, a Republican from Burkesville, who has long opposed casino gambling and leaned hard on his party’s members to oppose the measure. This year Williams is no longer a part of the equation, having been appointed a circuit court judge in his Southern Kentucky district in late October by Beshear.

But there is another potential barrier on the horizon and that lies in who becomes Senate majority leader. Currently this position is held by Sen. Robert Stivers, who is expected to run and win the position of Senate president. Running for majority leader are Thayer and Sen. David Givens. The majority leader is a key position because it controls which legislation gets to the Senate floor for a vote. Givens, though Kentucky Downs is in his district, is opposed to the casino amendment and no fan of Instant Racing, the historic racing game bolstering purses at the small borderline track. If Givens becomes majority leader, the amendment could have a tough row to hoe next year or in 2014.

A democracy is supposed to run based on the will of the people. So here’s hoping all legislators will see this amendment for what it is, simply letting Kentuckians decide what they want—hopefully, before the bright economic apple that is the Thoroughbred industry becomes spoiled.