What's Going On Here : Keeneland

Field Size Matters - by Dan Liebman

Blood-Horse Staff — Tue, 07 Apr 2009 14:31:00 GMT

On a beautiful spring day in Central Kentucky April 4, it was easy to see why Keeneland was considering a major expansion to its facility (now on hold due to the current state of the economy). With the fifth-highest attendance in its history—30,550—the place was bursting at the seams.

With a larger physical plant, that number would have been higher. Thousands tailgated in the parking lot, never going through the turnstiles. Countless others gave up trying to attend when they saw traffic backed up so far it took many racing fans 90 minutes to drive a mile, park, and hoof it to the grandstand.

Keeneland has never had a good per capita handle figure, and on this day that number was only $55.42, leaving one to assume many patrons either got shut out or never made the effort to wait to wager. The per capita from the corresponding day a year ago was $64.27.

The attendance on the day, compared to the corresponding day a year ago, was up 27.85%, but the on-track handle was only up 10.24%, from $1,535,814 to $1,693,010.

As much as anything else, the day was a lesson in the importance of field size, a number racetrack executives are talking a lot more about these days.

After the first race April 4, handle from all sources was down roughly $600,000 from a year ago, an amount that is tough to make up throughout the day, even with a record Saturday crowd. In fact, Keeneland did well to make up two-thirds of that amount, finishing the day with all-sources handle of $10,405,989 compared to $10,613,372 (a decrease of 19.54%) in 2008.

The first race April 4 consisted of a seven-horse field (there were two scratches) of maiden 2-year-olds running 4 1⁄2 furlongs. A year ago the first race contained a 12-horse field of maiden 3-year-olds going 1 1⁄8 miles. In the win, place, and show pools only, the on-track crowd wagered $204,290 this year compared to $392,831 a year ago.

Bettors love full fields, and for that reason, racetracks do as well. It doesn’t take a mathematician to figure out that every additional horse in a field correlates to increased handle.

Bob Elliston, the president of Turfway Park, which is owned partially by Keeneland, saw first-hand the result of decreased field size at the track’s recently completed meeting. Average field size at the Northern Kentucky oval was 9.0 in January, 8.0 in February, and 7.1 in March. The meet ended with a decrease of 24.6% in handle and purses were down 14.14%.

“The declines this winter clearly demonstrate the importance field size plays in the minds of horseplayers across the country,” Elliston said. “Given the economy, people are choosing to spend their money on products that offer the best return on investment, no matter what those products may be.”

Last summer the New York Racing Association offered to increase the purses for open company route races for every betting interest over six that started. The offer produced the first allowance race worth more than $100,000. Average daily purses at Saratoga were $790,513, again the highest of any other track in the country.

Because of increased business, Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs, Ark., has raised purses twice during its current meeting that ends April 11. In addition, the track offered a participation incentive for its Racing Festival of the South. In a down economy, business is up at Oaklawn, which has been owned by members of the Cella family for more than 100 years.

Besides being up in attendance as well as on-track and off-track handle, Oaklawn is up in two other important categories. One is average field size, which through the first two-thirds of the meet had increased from 9.11 to 9.64. The other is its slots-like Instant Racing game, which has continued to show solid growth.

Horsemen entering horses helps business. Nothing new, but even more critical in today’s economic model.

Two Market - by Dan Liebman

Blood-Horse Staff — Tue, 20 Jan 2009 14:39:00 GMT

The Keeneland January horses of all ages sale is a barometer of, well, nothing. Most years, that is.

Unless there is a major dispersal or unless the odd high-priced broodmare or two end up in the January sale rather than in the larger and more prestigious November auction, January normally contains a hodgepodge of mostly middle- and lower-end breeding stock, and what the industry refers to as “short yearlings.”

In fact, the 2009 edition, played out Jan. 12-17, contained exactly that. So, with a less than stellar catalog, and by coming just two months after a lackluster November sale, no one expected much.

Still, the numbers speak volumes: gross down 53.4%; average off 48%; and a decrease of 44.1% in the median.

But it is not just the stark reality of the numbers. There is meaning behind them. The figures are not only a reflection of the stock that was offered, but rather an ever-present reminder of the bleak economy and how it is affecting the Thoroughbred industry.

Many people are simply not spending money. Whether it be on shoes, televisions, houses, or horses, consumers are pulling back.

The horses in the January sale that had everything going for them still brought “fair” prices. But more than ever, those that had holes in them had few interested buyers. As in November, many breeders that absolutely didn’t have to sell simply withdrew their horses from the sale, while others, that didn’t have to, did sell, obviously intent on reducing the size of their broodmare band or of dispensing with the cost, and risk, of raising a yearling until the summer or fall.

The stock, and the money paid for it at the January sale, are not usually indicators of how things will go at the winter and spring sales of 2-year-olds in training. But the mood of those in the horse business, clearly on display at Keeneland, was as chilly and dreary as the weather in Central Kentucky during the first major Thoroughbred auction of the new year.

When pinhookers were buying yearlings last year to resell as juveniles this year, the market was still fairly stable. A great deal has happened in the past six months. So, the question is not if the 2-year-old sales will be down, but by how much?

Back in 2003, the five major sales of 2-year-olds in training—Ocala Breeders’ Sale Co. February and March, Fasig-Tipton February, Barretts March, and Keeneland April—grossed $93.67 million. Just three years later that figure had jumped 48.4% to nearly $139 million. Of course, $16 million of that $139 million was for one horse, the disappointing The Green Monkey. However, without the highest-priced horse ever sold at public auction in the equation, the gross still increased 31.3%.

Last year the five auctions grossed $111.8 million, producing a hefty average of $194,782 for the 574 horses sold, and more importantly, a record median of $157,500.

The past five years the gross at the five sales has exceeded $100 million, so it would be easy to say those who did well in recent years will not have all their profits erased in the expected down market of 2009. However, pinhooking is a game of constantly refilling the tank, using profits for two purposes—to pay down debt from the past and to invest in stock for the future.

The 2-year-old market should not be a reflection, however, of the breeding stock sales but rather of the yearling sales. The biggest yearling auction, Keeneland September, was down 14.8% in gross. Ask any 2-year-old consignor right now if he would be happy with the gross of these five auctions being down 14.8%, and the answer is he would not be happy, but ecstatic. A drop of 50%, as in November and January, would have long-term effects on the churn of money through the auction houses.

Juveniles purchased at auction are ready to take to the track, and racing, after all, is what this is all about. Their prices should reflect their ability for a quicker return on investment.

Market Gamble - by Dan Liebman

Blood-Horse Staff — Tue, 23 Dec 2008 16:37:00 GMT

Handicapping is an integral part of the Thoroughbred game, a cerebral exercise that involves time and patience, skill and luck, risk-taking and rewards. But the ultimate handicapping is not done by those who look at exactas and Pick Threes, but by the owners and breeders who realize how high the odds really are.

Commodity brokers know how hard it is to predict whether a market will be higher or lower in the future—from petroleum to pork bellies to corn or soybeans. But they have nothing on a Thoroughbred breeder or owner.

When a mating is planned, a breeder has no real idea if the sire he has chosen will be in or out of favor at the time he will sell the resultant foal as a yearling. This is one of the reasons more and more foals have been sold as weanlings in recent years, presenting an opportunity to take some cash off the table sooner rather than later.

In 2009, however, there figures to be both more weanlings and yearlings to be offered than ever, for several reasons. For one, the 2008 Keeneland November sale plummeted, causing many to scratch mares and foals. In numerous cases, as the sale dragged on, it seemed as though there were two types of consignors—those whose debts forced them to sell, and those who were not in such dire straits and withdrew their horses hoping things would be different next fall. Because of those decisions, many scratched weanlings will be offered as yearlings, and many in-foal mares will have their offspring consigned as weanlings.

The Thoroughbred auction market followed the general economy closely in 2008, dropping more as the year progressed. The amount spent in North America on juveniles in training was $182,671,515, down 5.4% from the 2007 total of $193,075,244. By the time summer and early fall arrived, global financial markets were sliding, and buyers spent $468,283,587 on yearlings, a decrease of 16.7% from $561,846,659 a year before. Then the bottom dropped out when the fall breeding stock sales were going on, with the amount spent on weanlings falling 34.2%, from $86,770,649 to $57,066,068 and the total paid for broodmares dropping 30.5%, from $370,099,831 to $257,153,903.

For all sales in North America in 2008, buyers spent $965,175,073, the first time in the past five years that number has not reached $1 billion. The dollars that flowed to owners and breeders at public auctions was $246,617,310 less than the $1,211,792,383 spent in 2007, a sharp decrease of 20.4%.

With nearly a quarter of a billion dollars less in gross receipts, Thoroughbred breeders find themselves facing tough times as the calendar flips to 2009. Though many stud fees for the coming year have been lowered, breeders who sold yearlings in 2008 did so based on high 2006 stud fees, seasons paid for in 2007.

The trend, by the way, was not seen just in North America, but around the globe. While the Central Kentucky auction house Keeneland, since it offers more horses than anyone else, felt the biggest hit, English-based auction company Tattersalls saw its gross decline from 244,835,900 guineas to 167,555,450 guineas, a 32% drop.

As we appoach the new year, pinhookers prepping 2-year-olds for sale have to be worried, considering when they purchased yearlings in July, August, and September the Thoroughbred market was still fairly healthy. Now, the same cannot be said as they prepare to send those horses through auction rings next February, March, and April.

If pinhookers, who have become such an integral part of the auction market, realize few gains in the spring, they obviously will have less to pay for yearlings next summer and fall.

By nature, Thoroughbred breeders have two important things in common—a love of the horse and an optimistic nature. Those qualities become even more important in such challenging times.

Behind the Sale - by Dan Liebman

Blood-Horse Staff — Tue, 25 Nov 2008 18:07:00 GMT

It takes only a minute or two to sell a horse at public auction. The animal is led into the ring, the announcer makes a few comments, the auctioneer rattles his chant, and the hammer falls.

Simple. Easy.

Not exactly.

In 2002, The Blood-Horse presented “A Day in the Life of a Racetrack,” followed in 2005 by “A Day in the Life of a Breeding Farm.” For this issue, writers and photographers spent time “behind the scenes” with the people responsible for putting on a single day of the Keeneland November breeding stock sale.

Of course, those same people are responsible for all 15 days of the auction, and for many, their work begins months before the first horse is led into the ring.

And they are there in good times and bad, which doesn’t necessarily refer to whether the market is up or down. Sale company officials and employees perform their functions for one-day sales and two-week auctions, for short sessions and lengthy ones, under sunny skies and in inclement weather, with million-dollar horses and thousand-dollar ones, as well.

So far this year, more than 17,000 horses of various ages have been listed as sold at auctions in North America. That doesn’t just happen. Many people make it happen.

There are those you see, like the bid spotters, and those you don’t, like the office staff. There are those who work outside—unloading the horses, clearing the muck, and scooping the poop. There are those who work inside—running the repository, cooking and serving the food and beverages, working the bid board, and cleaning the bathrooms. There are those who don’t work for the sale company—attorneys, advertising agencies, and vanning companies.

Sale company officials often refer to themselves as simply the conduit by which a horse passes from seller to buyer. They represent both parties in the fair trade of stock. Well, these are the men and women who help the sale company fulfill that mission, working on behalf of both consignors and buyers hoping all go home happy, although knowing that at any sale, there is no way everyone will walk away happy.

Just like selling cattle, corn, or soybeans, the sale company provides the arena for the Thoroughbred breeder to bring his product to market. Yes, the sale company is motivated by a big incentive—its commission—but it relies on repeat business, so service is everything.

More than 20 sale companies have conducted auctions in North America this year, with varying degrees of success, differing levels of stock, and various numbers of employees. But the bottom line is the same, and that is to sell horses.

Everyone knows the breeding of Thoroughbreds has become more commercial, with seemingly more persons wanting to sell a horse than race a horse. That is why Keeneland, the biggest Thoroughbred sale company in the world, cataloged record numbers this year in September and November. However, large catalogs in a time of a global economic downturn translated to significant decreases in business and many horses left unsold or worse—unwanted.

How quickly has the economy turned?

Well, a feature conceived a year ago on a behind-the-scenes look at a Thoroughbred sale ended up occurring at a sale that saw huge decreases in business. That, however, only better helps illustrate that sale companies do not determine the market. The men and women that help breeders bring their crops to market are bright, cheery, and helpful whether the gross, median, and average are up or if the gross, median, and average are down—way down.

At Keeneland during the November sale, company officials were also working on the January and April 2009 sales.

There is always the next sale, and the people behind it.

Tough Times - by Dan Liebman

Blood-Horse Staff — Tue, 11 Nov 2008 14:19:00 GMT

Disaster. Brutal. Blood bath. Just a few of the many descriptive words being used by breeders to describe the Keeneland November breeding stock sale, which at this writing still had a week to run.

In light of the recessive global economy, everyone thought the sale, the largest of its kind in the world, would be down. But a drop of 10-20% was expected, not 46% in gross, 37% in average, and 31% in median through seven of 15 days. No one saw this coming.

Generally, the spring juvenile selling season sets the tone for the yearling sales that are held during the summer and early fall. The yearling auctions provide a read for what will happen at the fall and winter mixed sales.

The biggest barometer of all is the Keeneland September yearling sale, which saw a significant drop in gross of $57,019,500. Still, the 3,605 yearlings sold for $327,999,100, the fourth-highest total in the auction’s history. While the gross was down 14.8%, the average ($90,984) decreased 10.2% and the median ($37,000) dropped 11.9%.

Despite those numbers, most agreed the September sale held up as well as could be expected considering the change in the value of the dollar, struggles on Wall Street, and a myriad of negative headlines describing the current state of the Thoroughbred industry.

A downturn in November mirroring September looked inevitable. Instead, the bottom seems to have dropped out of the Thoroughbred market.

Much has happened in the weeks between the end of the September sale and start of the November auction: The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost more than 20% in the first seven trading days of October; Congress approved a $700-billion bailout to add liquidity to credit markets; 19 banks have failed in the United States so far this year; and the jobless rate is at a 14-year high.

Closer to home, wagering on horse racing declined again in the third quarter of the year; disputes between racetrack management and horsemen over advance deposit wagering have caused purses to be cut and horse players to become disillusioned; and now, the value of bloodstock is dropping.

At the November sale, much like at the final Keeneland July yearling sale in 2002, many breeders decided to withdraw their horses once the sale had started when they realized the state of the market. This was deemed a better result than sending a horse through the ring and buying it back, a fact buyers would see if the same horse was put back through the ring a year from now.

In those cases, breeders don’t have to sell, an enviable position to be in. So, hoping the global economy will begin to show improvement in 2009, they are willing to wait another year before selling a mare, or will sell a yearling rather than a weanling.

Those, however, who need to take some cash off the table are taking less than they thought, leaving them in the same predicament as many businessmen in other professions: facing tough times.

One breeder at the Keeneland November sale said one of the reasons the sale is down more than anticipated is that the equine lending departments of financial institutions are not as willing to help those in the Thoroughbred business.

Current market conditions have caught many farm owners and breeders in a squeeze play. In a time where the value of bloodstock is coming down—rather drastically at the present moment—the cost of farm management is continuing to rise.

Watching the prices fall at the sale, breeders are at least heartened to see that most stud fees are being adjusted downward. However, many of these same fees should have been lowered earlier, and some of those that have come down need to come down even more. Still, it will be more affordable to breed a mare to most stallions in 2009, and one would think a breeder’s imagination can be put to good use when negotiating deals and terms on stud fees.

Thoroughbred breeders are a resilient group. In light of the results of the November sale, that’s a good thing.

Voice of Concern - by Dan Liebman

Blood-Horse Staff — Tue, 14 Oct 2008 14:15:00 GMT

They say actions speak louder than words. The public is taking action by wagering less on horse racing. And those actions are speaking loudly.

Data released for the third quarter of 2008 reveals that handle in the United States and Canada dropped sharply, 9.85%, during July, August, and September, and for the calendar year, is off 5.75% compared with 2007.

During the three-month period, total wagering was $3,489,171,872, compared to $3,870,348,046 during the third quarter of 2007. For the first nine months of the year, patrons wagered $10,754,907,211 on races in North America, down from $11,411,642,388 during the first three-quarters of last year.

Officials are quick to blame the economy, and why not? Global financial markets are in turmoil, while closer to home, the Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeted during the week of Oct. 6.

As Bob Evans, president of Churchill Downs Inc., pointed out, gambling involves discretionary income. People have to buy gas and groceries, but they do not have to wager on horse racing.

“People don’t have to go to the track,” Evans said.

True, but is it that people don’t “have” to go, or that fewer people “want” to go?

Alex Waldrop, president and chief executive officer of the National Thoroughbred Racing Association, indicated more than the economy is at work.

“Our industry’s difficult year continued during the summer as a harsh economy and other factors continued to negatively impact business,” Waldrop said.

Consider that the third quarter comes after the Triple Crown, which this year featured a Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (gr. I) in which the winner, Big Brown, was admittedly on steroids and the second-place finisher, Eight Belles, tragically broke down and was euthanized.

Make no mistake, the struggling economy is a big factor, but our customers have told us they are wagering less, or not at all, because of such issues as the use of medications, wagering integrity, and safety concerns.

So it is the perfect storm for the fourth quarter of the year. First, people are upset with us as an industry. Second, they have watched Congress deal with a bailout package for Wall Street, seen the Dow Jones Industrial Average shrink 2,000 points in a week’s time, and are nervously and anxiously awaiting the outcome of a history-making presidential election.

The industry can work together to alleviate the public’s concerns over a myriad of issues, but dealing with a battered economy is much more difficult to address. All the promotions a racetrack’s marketing minds can come up with will not work when people are worried about the cost of living and the wild daily market fluctuations that determine their retirement funds.

A sign of the times is occurring now at Keeneland, the premier meeting of the North American racing calendar in the fourth quarter of the year. If any track was immune to the economy, one would have guessed it was Keeneland. One would have been wrong.

A local television weatherman said the weather in Central Kentucky Oct. 4-6 was the best it had been for an opening weekend of the Keeneland fall meeting in 30 years. So, when Saturday’s attendance dropped from 24,480 to 19,535, it was evident the economy and “other factors” were at play at Keeneland just as they had been during the summer at Del Mar and Saratoga (total handle down 7% and 10.3%, respectively).

For the first seven days of the Keeneland meeting, which included two weekends, attendance was down 2.5%, on-track handle dipped nearly 11%, and total handle dropped 17.4%. Per-capita wagering on-track this year was $81.23, compared to $88.97 in 2007.

Keeneland’s rich purses attract top horses, so when total wagering on Keeneland for a week—a week that included 11 stakes, six of them grade I—declines from $62.2 million to $51.4 million, it is time to take note.

Actions speak louder than words. Our customers are speaking.

Taking Stock - by Dan Liebman

Blood-Horse Staff — Tue, 23 Sep 2008 14:09:00 GMT

Financier Warren Buffett once said there is only one certainty about the stock market: It will fluctuate.

In fact, all markets vacillate, and the business trends of buying and selling Thoroughbreds are certainly among them.

The difference is the stock market tends to react quickly to news while the Thoroughbred market, by its sheer nature, often cannot and does not.

Companies announce performance numbers on a daily basis, and Wall Street and international markets react swiftly. That is a big difference from a Thoroughbred breeder who makes a mating decision in 2006 that produces a foal sold as a yearling in 2008.

Like the stock market, everything related to the breeding of a Thoroughbred is a gamble. Just getting a mare in foal is not as easy as it sounds. Then there are the many maladies and conformation faults a foal can experience. Also, there is the worry that a hot sire at the time of the mating will be a cold sire at the time of the sale.

All of those normal concerns seemed to take a backseat at this year’s Keeneland September yearling sale, where the domestic and world economic problems set the tone from the outset. While the hardest thing to do with any market is predict it, that did not present a problem in this particular case.

Prior to the Keeneland sale, the largest of its kind and traditionally a barometer of the market’s overall economic condition, every consignor and breeder interviewed felt the sale would be down 10-20%.

At this writing, with two days of selling left, the gross was off about 15%, the average 11%, and the median 6%.

Like many industries, the Thoroughbred business has a huge trickle-down effect. Thus the drop in gross of more than $55 million means a breeder might have to postpone replacing fencing, buying a new truck or tractor, or building a new barn.

It also more than likely means a huge catalog for the Keeneland November sale, with breeders figuring a couple of ways to save money include having fewer mouths to feed and stud fees to pay.

Of course, the next big thing to happen is for those that stand stallions to set the fees for the 2009 breeding season that begins in February. That $55 million missing from the marketplace certainly means some will have to lower their sights when planning their next round of matings.

Certainly all stud fees should not decrease in a down market, just as all stud fees should not increase in an up market. Stud fees should be determined by what is happening on the racetrack.

The easiest solution might be to alter stud fees only slightly, while reducing book sizes considerably. The revenue from stud fees would go down, but it might translate into higher demand at the yearling sales, which would more than compensate for revenue lost from those stud fees.

If you have a bad foal, it doesn’t matter if he is one of 10 yearlings at a sale by his sire or one of 80. But if you have a good foal by the sire, bidders might be pushed to pay more if there are fewer offspring of the stallion available.

Breeders are quick to point out that they comprise a perfect example of a free market, where no one is forced to breed to a certain stallion, no one is told to cap a book of mares, and it is up to each individual to decide what he or she believes the horse is worth.

Buffett says a key is understanding the difference between price and value. He has said: “Price is what you pay. Value is what you get.”

According to Buffett, then the Keeneland sale illustrates the Thoroughbred market is doing all right.

Paint By Numbers - by Dan Liebman

Blood-Horse Staff — Tue, 26 Aug 2008 14:13:00 GMT

Based on Reports of Mares Bred, The Jockey Club recently announced its projection of the foal crop of 2009 as 35,400, which would represent a 3.3% decline from the estimated 36,600 foals of 2008.

Many believe the foal crop should be much smaller.

Consider this quote from pinhooker Eddie Woods, speaking at the Ocala Breeders’ Sales Co.’s yearling sale, which Aug. 18-21 suffered major declines in business: “Basically, we’re seeing the results of the overproduction of mediocre stock…there are too many mares (in production).”

The size of the Thoroughbred foal crop grew dramatically in the 1980s, when auction prices boomed and everyone wanted a piece of the action. There were 35,679 foals in the first year of the decade, but by 1985, the number had soared to 50,433, peaked at 51,296 in 1986, and was 50,917 in 1987. In just a few years, the crop size had jumped nearly 44%.

What followed was pure economics. With high supply and low demand, prices fell and many limited investors fled. The foal crop was back to 35,341 in 1994 and has remained around that number ever since.

During the decade of the ’80s, there were 463,827 registered foals, a number that fell 19% to 375,302 in the ’90s. Based on crop totals and estimates for the ’00s, the decade will see 371,633 foals registered, a drop from decade to decade of less than 1%.

What makes it tough for breeders to scale back is the emphasis on the commercial market and the solid average price for yearlings sold throughout North America. In 2007, there were 10,159 yearlings sold at public auction for an average of $55,306. At the world’s largest shopping venue, Keeneland September, the average has been more than $100,000 each of the past three years.

For its 2008 sale, Keeneland has cataloged a record 5,555 youngsters, about 14% of the entire estimated foal crop.

A year ago, 4,901 yearlings went through the Keeneland sale ring over the course of 15 days, with 3,799 listed as sold. But only 1,235 yearlings, 25%, were profitable, based on stud fee returns, according to Blood-Horse calculations.

This is not to say many breeders are not making a profit. If you send 10 through the ring and two or three sell for enough to carry the others, the bottom line can wind up being positive.

But now comes a year in which breeders have higher stud fees and pinhookers have larger investments in yearlings. Combine that with a struggling economy, and there is plenty of reason for concern.

Many breeders/consignors have expressed a belief that they expect the first week of the Keeneland sale, when most of the better pedigreed and conformed horses are cataloged, to remain healthy, while the rest of the sale could experience significant downturns. At the OBS sale, the number sold was down 20.5%, the gross dropped 34.6%, and the average was off 17.7%.

With mares currently carrying what will be the final crop of this decade, breeders should again assess the size of the crop as it relates to the economics of the game. The crops of 2000-09 will drop only about 1% because of larger books and fewer stallions. That fewer stallions are standing at stud may not be such a bad thing, but larger books have pushed catalogs to record sizes. One need only look at the list of freshman sires in the Keeneland sale and the number of offspring representing each to see this at work.

There were 4,513 active stallions in the United States in 1998, though obviously only a small number were considered truly commercial. By 2006, when this crop of yearlings was conceived, there were 3,682.

Fewer stallions and more broodmares. As Woods so succinctly said, the overproduction of mediocre stock does no one any good.

Star Power - by Dan Liebman

Blood-Horse Staff — Tue, 19 Aug 2008 13:38:00 GMT

Just three months after it was announced he was being pensioned, Storm Cat was represented by the top price Aug. 5 at the Fasig-Tipton Saratoga yearling sale. How fitting.

The success enjoyed by the 25-year-old son of Storm Bird is obvious. Storm Cat made Overbrook Farm what it is today because he has sired 13% stakes winners, which ranks him among the best stallions of our time. His progeny’s racetrack success allowed his stud fee to rise to the highest in recent memory, $500,000.

But Storm Cat has been a huge commercial success as well, which is important to breeders taking his sons and daughters to market, and buyers hoping not only for top racetrack performance, but significant future residual value as well.

Over the past 32 years, 109 stallions have been represented by at least one offspring sold at a North American yearling sale for $1 million or more. That group of stallions has sired 718 seven-figure yearlings, and of that total, a remarkable 90 are by Storm Cat.

Thus, 12.5% of all yearlings ever sold in North America for $1 million or more are by one stallion.

(For the record, the next highest total is the 52 sired by Storm Bird’s sire, Northern Dancer.)

A group of 34 colts and fillies by Storm Cat are cataloged to the Keeneland fall yearling sale that kicks off Sept. 8. This is a comparable number to last year, when 37 were cataloged and 23 sold for an average of $536,739.

This year’s list is like a “Who’s Who” of pedigrees. Nine of the yearlings are out of grade/group I winners (three champions) and eight are full or half-siblings to grade/group I winners (four champions).

With numerous offspring still to go through an auction ring, it is possible Storm Cat could become the first triple-double stallion—more than 100 stakes winners (he has 166 to date) and more than 100 yearlings sold for $1 million or more.

Stallions like Storm Cat do not come along very often. But they are the dream of everyone who retires a horse to stud, and like a couple of other horses in the news lately—Danzig and Theatrical—prove the best do not necessarily start in the breeding shed with a high stud fee.

Storm Cat may have commanded $500,000 for six years, but his initial fee was just $30,000 (and later $20,000).

Danzig, who first stood for $20,000 and saw his fee rise to $250,000 no guarantee, recently became the first North American stallion to sire 200 stakes winners. Danzig, who died in 2006, is from the same sire line as Storm Cat. Danzig is by Northern Dancer, sire also of Storm Cat’s sire.

The mark of 200 stakes winners is impressive for Danzig considering he stood at Claiborne Farm, which has never bred books as large as many other farms. Danzig’s largest crop was 59 foals. His percentage of stakes winners, 18%, places him among the elite stallions of all time.

At a time when many are questioning the durability of the Thoroughbred and commercialized focus of breeders, there is Theatrical, who will never be thought of as flashy or dazzling, but has consistently rewarded those who bred to him, and whose progeny have an average winning distance of 9.5 furlongs.

A product of the highly successful breeding program of Bert and Diana Firestone, Theatrical, by Northern Dancer’s son, Nureyev, recently sired his 22nd grade/group I winner, Winchester, a Firestone homebred.

The Firestones raced Theatrical and later took on Allen Paulson as a partner in the horse. He first stood at Paulson’s Brookside Farms and now stands at Hill ‘n’ Dale Farms near Lexington.

Theatrical has sired 77 stakes winners (8%), but consider that 28.5% have won a grade/group I race.

Percentage of stakes winners should still be the most important measure of a stallion’s success.

The Next Steps - by Dan Liebman

Blood-Horse Staff — Tue, 08 Apr 2008 16:20:00 GMT

Alice Chandler has no intention of shooting craps in a fancy, glitzy casino. Wouldn’t be the same. Now 82, she harkens back to her youth when she would try to make her point in a tack room with the men on her dad’s Beaumont Farm. She loves recalling how at the tender age of 10, she won $600 and Triple Crown-winning jockey Smokey Saunders’ car.

“I came home bragging about it, and daddy made me give it all back,” she said smiling.

Daddy was Hal Price Headley, one of the founders of Keeneland and a famous breeder in his day. Today, Chandler’s Mill Ridge Farm near Lexington sits on part of the old Beaumont Farm. With land leased from her sister and brother, the 175 mares on the property roam 1,000 acres; her father had more than 4,000, much of it now subdivisions, shops, schools, and churches.

Chandler announced last week that her son, Headley Bell, was taking over the day-to-day operation of Mill Ridge. But Alice Chandler is not going anywhere.

“The time has come,” Chandler said from her farm office, her ever-present dogs by her side. “Really, Headley picked the time. I’m not as out there as I used to be. I’m tickled to death that there is someone ready to step in. I’m blessed to have four kids, and the three boys, Headley, Reynolds, and Mike, are all here working on the farm and are dedicated to the same ideals as myself.”

In fact, Headley Bell said, his generation and the next, the sixth on the property, are the ones who are blessed.

“Our intention is to keep going, whatever it takes,” he said. “We’re blessed to have this, and we all appreciate it.”

Chandler understands that times change and people—and industries—must change with them. But she likes to wax nostalgic. Where the Breeders’ Cup/NTRA offices are today used to be the site of a Beaumont Place training barn where Chandler schooled her jumper. She was practically raised at Keeneland, and with the track only a few furlongs from their land, she used to ride her pony down Versailles Road to the track each day after school.

She started Mill Ridge with less than 300 acres inherited from her father, and she had her first taste of success when selling a yearling colt by Sir Gaylord for $42,000 who turned out to be 1968 Epsom Derby winner Sir Ivor.

In recent years, Mill Ridge raised Kentucky Derby (gr. I) winner Giacomo and champion filly Sweet Catomine. Countless other stakes winners were either bred, raised, or sold by the farm in the intervening years.

When her father died, Alice Chandler started with three of his employees, now deceased, who, she said, “were like brothers to me.”

Headley Bell understands that, stressing that those who board mares at the farm are not just clients, but friends, and the employees are part of the Mill Ridge family. The average tenure of those who work at Mill Ridge is 20 years.

Chandler passes along two pieces of advice, and not surprisingly, they were handed down to her by her father—don’t hothouse your horses and take care of the land.

“Daddy was all about keeping it as close to nature as you could; doing it the way the horse wanted,” she said. “Land was a fetish with him. He was careful with what he bought; he did not buy bad land. It was one of his keys. I hope that they (her children) can continue with the land they have. It’s all good land, and good land is hard to get ahold of.”

Few have experienced as much in the Thoroughbred industry as Alice Chandler. Sure, she had the pedigree, but she earned her place in the industry by hard work and good horsemanship.

“Back in the old days it was more for the horse and less for the money,” she said.

If we don’t remember that, we could all crap out.

Detox

Blood-Horse Staff — Tue, 25 Mar 2008 17:36:00 GMT

Imagine using something in your profession for 25 years because you believe it to be beneficial, and then having regulators take it away from you. That, said Dr. Don Catlin, is how some Thoroughbred trainers must feel about the industry’s push to ban the usage of most anabolic steroids.

Catlin, one of the world’s foremost experts in the use of performance-enhancing drugs in sports, founded the Anti-Doping Research Institute and for the past couple of years has headed the privately funded Equine Drug Research Institute.

The Thoroughbred industry, headed by Keeneland, raised $3 million to fund work done by Catlin, who was among the speakers March 17 during the second Welfare and Safety of the Racehorse Summit. The 69-year-old scientist said the industry is not yet ready to implement the steroids ban, and urged it to proceed slowly in order to get things right. He also stated he believes the powers that be are making a mistake by not banning all anabolic steroids.

Speaking later in the week from his home in California, Catlin, who formerly headed the Olympic testing lab and has developed tests that have caught cheaters, discussed his work. But in doing so, he also felt compelled to mention how “political” he has found the Thoroughbred industry to be.

Everyone who works with the Thoroughbred industry finds that out; usually sooner rather than later.

“We’re approaching the midway part of year three and trying to decide if we should go forward,” Catlin said. “Along the way, what I thought would be just science issues I have learned is just part of it. There is an overlay of political issues that are really the dominating theme.”

Catlin spoke of the Racing Medication and Testing Consortium, state racing commissions, and horsemen’s groups as among those with varied and vested interests in the sport. It is hard, he said, for some to give up something they’ve had for so long.

“Personally, I think there is only one way to go, and that is a total ban. But I am sympathetic that the industry has been using steroids for 25 years, and you don’t turn that off overnight. I don’t like the idea of regulating the four steroids, but it is far better than doing nothing.”

The suggestion by many that steroids have therapeutic uses does not sway him, Catlin said. “The industry must get a handle on it, and they are working hard to fix it. That being said, I would have started without any exceptions. I don’t see anything in the literature (suggesting therapeutic uses), but I am cognizant that I am just learning about this industry.”

Many once thought Olympic sports to be the purest form of athleticism. Because of the efforts of Catlin and his associates, we now know such high-profile Olympic gold medalists as Ben Johnson and Justin Gatlin were juiced. Johnson had used Stanzonol, one of the four steroids allowed under the RMTC guidelines. Gatlin’s steroid of choice was testosterone.

It was Catlin who developed the test for THG (tetrahydrogestrione), which was used to crack the Bay Area Laboratory Co-Operative case. Last year, one of those caught in the BALCO scandal, gold medalist Marion Jones, admitted to using steroids and lying to federal investigators.

At Keeneland March 17, Catlin said steroids make humans run faster, jump higher, and lift more. They have the same types of effects on horses, none of which are therapeutic in nature.

When asked what he thought when he learned how many drugs are permissible to use on Thoroughbreds in training, Catlin said he was both “surprised and horrified.”

Many medications used on the backstretches of America’s racetracks are necessary, and when used properly, help equine athletes compete to the best of their abilities.

Scientists and veterinarians, including Catlin, want to ensure that those are the only drugs being used. The goals are to rid the sport of harmful medications and catch the violators…no matter your politics.