What's Going On Here - All Comments

re: Keeping the Promise - by Eric Mitchell

Conny — Mon, 29 Sep 2014 13:14:20 GMT

We are producer from Syntetic fibres for the best quality manufacturers in the world, we know that the impact from a good synthetic surface is a great benefit for horse and rider, we have a lot of people who are very happy with a high quality surface! you just need the best quality surface manufacturer and the best quality fibres to put in the surface ! In this part of Europe the people know how impotent it is to have a quality surface , a dirt surface is not so safe , hope they change there minds for the safety for horse and rider !

re: In Honor of Theresa - by Eric Mitchell

john murray — Wed, 24 Sep 2014 02:33:48 GMT

Data, information, knowledge, wisdom - Librarians Rule

re: America's Horse in Europe - by Eric Mitchell

EJMitchellKy — Thu, 11 Sep 2014 13:06:54 GMT

Thanks for all the comments.

Sceptre, I wholeheartedly agree that the shift in sire power is more significant than the medication issue. But saying that medication is not an issue is ignoring what several European buyers are saying. They are telling us it's an issue. I'm not sure how that qualifies as ignoring reality.

re: Spoiler Alert - By Eric Mitchell

Pedigree Ann — Sun, 07 Sep 2014 10:07:02 GMT

I don't believe in giving extra credit for being unbeaten on the year - it usually means the horse hasn't run against the toughest possible competition more than once if at all. These horses are not Slews or Affirmeds or Bids or Ack Acks. Winning one big race is enough to get a horse called 'great' these days, it seems.

Tonalist and VE Day are 'one-hit wonders' at this point. And, as a 3yo, so is Shared Belief. People seem to love to get carried away by speculation these days; I guess it comes from the better horses not running against each other frequently the way they used to. Without much data to rely on, our imaginations are free to dream up all sorts of scenarios. Then to argue endlessly about whose scenario is the right one.

I liked it better when things were settled on the track. Affirmed finished in front of Alydar every time at 3; Alydar could only get a 'win' over him with a DQ: Affirmed was the champ. Sunday Silence beat Easy Goer 3 times on neutral tracks, Easy Goer beat Sunday Silence once on his home track: Sunday Silence is the champ. Clean and simple.

re: Spoiler Alert - By Eric Mitchell

Harrison — Sat, 06 Sep 2014 03:39:43 GMT

Coldfacts: I share your opinion and I also think too many are ignoring Wicked Strong & V.E.Day. Tonalist was always overrated and obviously needs long lay-offs between efforts to be successful. Shared Belief's pedigree includes a long line of "champions" with career-ending foot/ankle injuries which he's apparently inherited. He'll probably be best on turf--maybe the next Wise Dan.

I am curious to see the video of Chrome's public work on Saturday at Los Al. Hope he still has his "kick" and there aren't any lingering effects from his injury in the Belmont.

re: Spoiler Alert - By Eric Mitchell

Proud Acres — Thu, 04 Sep 2014 20:56:52 GMT

I always look at the championships as what horse has done the most for the current year. Not what happened last year but what has been done this year. CC is such a fighter, hopefully he will be fit enough to get the job done in the PA derby. I think it is exciting coming into the breeders cup, all of horse racing can only benefit if both these horses go against each other and then again in the classic. I think we have some exciting 3 year olds coming up which will make the Classic this year so exciting. I am so lucky to be able to make it to the Breeders Cup this year and can't wait to see CC in person.

re: Spoiler Alert - By Eric Mitchell

JerseyBoy — Thu, 04 Sep 2014 16:02:09 GMT

I like to judge horses by what they did, not by what they did not do. It is all a matter of speculation what would have happened if so and so had occurred.

Shared Belief is an unbeaten multiple graded stakes winner. In his last start he was 0.34 seconds off the track record. He beat an open field at weight for age.

Wise Dan is also a multiple graded stakes winner. He has lost one race over the past 12 months. In his last start he gave weight to all of his competition. He carried 127 lbs and was only 0.17 seconds off the track record which was set by a horse who was carrying 115 lbs, more than 20 years ago.

This places them way clear of the rest.

It is no contest at this stage. It is a two-horse race at this point. No one else is even close.

It does not mean that either will get the Horse of the Year award because that is an election.

re: Spoiler Alert - By Eric Mitchell

Owlbet — Thu, 04 Sep 2014 14:20:34 GMT

Shared Belief is nothing more than a "hype" horse.

re: Spoiler Alert - By Eric Mitchell

Tommyboomer — Thu, 04 Sep 2014 13:52:37 GMT

Interesting article, and a bunch of good points by Coldfacts. I think Shared Belief is a great horse, but is over-hyped at this point. I also think a race against California Chrome in PA, would be interesting, but in fairness to CC, he's coming off more than a 3 month layoff. Not sure if he'll be at his sharpest.

The Awesome again will be telling if some decent horses show up. Last year it had MMM and Paynter, hard to know who'll be running in it this year.

VE day is interesting, but one race, does not make a horse.

By the way, has anybody heard a thing from Danz?. He was the new super horse heading into the Derby, but has vanished from sight.

re: Spoiler Alert - By Eric Mitchell

West Lookout — Thu, 04 Sep 2014 04:06:49 GMT

Shared Belief's time in the Pacific Classic and the ease with which he overhauled the field made his effort more impressive than VE Day's Travers win. But no mention of Atreides? You better believe he's in the mix.

re: Spoiler Alert - By Eric Mitchell

Daniel Jividen — Wed, 03 Sep 2014 20:36:05 GMT

Nice article. But don't forget Tonalist, Wicked Strong, and V.E. Day might still have something to say about the 3 year old championship.

re: Spoiler Alert - By Eric Mitchell

Ranagulzion — Wed, 03 Sep 2014 19:16:00 GMT

In a possible Pennsylvania Derby clash Shared Belief would have a fitness edge over California Chrome but shipping him outside of California to compete would have to be viewed positively. Nothwithstanding,the competition should put the edge back on "Chrome" for the big Breeder's Cup showdown

re: Spoiler Alert - By Eric Mitchell

Coldfacts — Wed, 03 Sep 2014 17:31:46 GMT

Two major G1, 10F races were contested last weekend i.e., Travers and Pacific Classic. One was restricted to 3YOs and the other was for 3YOs and older. The Pacific Classis was won by 3YO Shared Belief and the Travers by V E Day. The victories of both horses could not be more different.

Shared Belief was the 4-5 ML favorite to win the Pacific Classic and his 4th graded stake. V E Day had a ML of 15-1 to win his graded stakes debut in a G1 race competing against 6 graded stakes winners including the Belmont winner. There can be no doubt as to which horse had the greater challenge.

En route to victory, Shared Belief passed the tiring 7YO Game On Dude like he was glued to the ground and just had to be kept up to his work. As a 3YO Shared Belief was in receipt of 6lbs from his older opponents VED had to pull out all the stops to defeat a fellow talented 3YO and a multiple graded stakes winner that had kicked wickedly for home and was not coming back to the field.

As a 3YO Shared Belief was in receipt of 6lbs from his older PC opponents. V E Day picked up 7Lbs from his last start and was at level weights of 126lbs with his opponents. Shared Belief scored his expected Pacific Classic victory and has since been the talk of the town. Those caught up in the euphoria of his victory and potential greatness have missed the unprecedented occurrence in the Travers and its unlikeliness.

re: Spoiler Alert - By Eric Mitchell

Coldfacts — Wed, 03 Sep 2014 17:23:55 GMT

Shared Belief has won all his 6 starts. Three of those victories have been subsequent to being sidelined by foot issues. His action is not very smooth and there must be some concerns about his potential long term soundness with regular starts on the hard SA Speedway.

His connections have avoided shipping out of state to contest major 3YO races since his return. Have they been cunningly picking their spots or is there some other reason? The Haskell, Jim Dandy, Travers were never on his schedule. Why were those races avoided?

Of his 6 victories, none have been against the top 3YOs in the country. If this trend continues the prospect of him contesting the PA Derby is very remote. The older horses that he has defeated cannot be considered the cream of the division. Five of his victories have been recorded on synthetic surfaces. Is synthetic his preferred surface or the one that best suites his suspect action?

His victory in the Pacific Classic over a spent GOD and company has propelled him to the top horse in the country status in the views of many. Was his victory more impressive than that recorded by Dullahan in 2012? Dullahan defeated a much younger and more competitive GOD en route to a record time of 1:59.54 for the synthetic surface.

If the BCC was being contested on synthetic he would be a lock. However, I am not convinced that Shared Belief can win over 10F on dirt against the top 3YO & 4YO routers. I am of the opinion that his sestet action will be a negative against a talented group of smooth striding cruisers and closers over 10F on dirt.

re: America's Horse in Europe - by Eric Mitchell

Yukon — Sat, 30 Aug 2014 03:10:37 GMT

A brief glance at the two most recent editions of The Blood Horse reveals that of the European stakes results posted, the offspring of only five stallions based in North America finished in the top three placings and of those only one, a son of Singspiel, actually won. The fact is that neither the Europeans nor the Japanese require North American yearlings in order to win the top races. Apart from War Front, there is no longer a stallion standing in North America likely to have a major impact upon the top European races year after year. Nor has a North American stud farm chosen to invest in top classic European runners as was the case when Nijinsky II, Herbager, Le Fabuleux, Lyphard, or Nureyev were brought to these shores by horsemen of vision. Add to that the North American emphasis on two year-old speed rather than stamina, and the shortening of what once were true tests of endurance such as the Jockey Club Gold Cup and the Coaching Club American Oaks, the fact is that the Europeans and Japanese simply no longer need the North American product. They can and are breeding better themselves with bloodlines which originated in North America forty and fifty years ago.

re: America's Horse in Europe - by Eric Mitchell

Barry Irwin — Thu, 28 Aug 2014 01:56:50 GMT

Good job Eric. I think the issue as to why this precipitous drop has occurred should be obvious to anybody. The reason it has been difficult to address and change is that the leaders that represent American-based horsemen don't give a hoot about what happens outside of their locality, let alone in Europe or the United Kingdom. Hard to believe that Keeneland and Fasig-Tipton don't take a stand against race day meds because they are losing business for them selves and their clients.

re: America's Horse in Europe - by Eric Mitchell

sceptre — Wed, 27 Aug 2014 17:38:45 GMT

Thanks for the figures, but you should have left it at that. Your cause/effect is not terribly persuasive, comprehensive, or analytic. You offer our use of Lasix as one possible cause, but not in an authoritative manner-rightly so. This was hardly the cause at all, but in using this you pander to your readers who, for the most part, possess even less insight regarding this matter. For openers, why not take a closer look at our stallion population, then and now? Does the term "turf sire" ring any bells? Lasix use has been around a long time, and back then it was simply a case of the U.S. breeding the best racehorses in the world. Times have changed; many of our best breed-to-race operations are gone, and through the years the overseas markets have siphoned off much of our best breeding stock. None of this has anything to do with Lasix, so let's get real.

re: America's Horse in Europe - by Eric Mitchell

Pedigree Ann — Wed, 27 Aug 2014 11:54:39 GMT

We have cheapened our product by failing to test our breeding stock in a way that the rest of the world trusts. Moreover, we have radically changed our racing program to emphasize sprinters and milers on dirt.

Another aspect is the fashion for oversized horses, who look like 2-or-3-year-olds as yearlings. I am in the UK for the academic year and the commentators repeated point out how huge and heavily muscled the American-bred horses are, especially the 2yos, like Wesley Ward brings over. They even have a saying about them, when they fail to run well - "Looks like Tarzan, runs like Jane." Many of these huge horses are unable to cope with the undulating, up and down nature of British courses.

re: America's Horse in Europe - by Eric Mitchell

Coldfacts — Tue, 26 Aug 2014 23:33:27 GMT

Fourteen 3YOs left the gates in the 2014, 2000 Guineas. Twelve of the 14 were sired by stallion from the Northern Dancer line based in Europe. Interestingly the winner was sired by a stallion from the Mr. Prospector line also based in Europe.

The two horse sired by US based stallions (War Front/Tiznow) finished 9th & 11th.

Hard Spun, Kitten's Joy & War front are probably the best from the ND sire line standing in the US right now.

War Chant a son of Danzig out of a Roberto line mare should be producing horse that European buyer should just love. He bred 64,61,48 & 51 mares in the last 4yrs Those are hardly big enough books to make him successful.

I believe not enough Northern Dancer line horse are available at the sales?

re: America's Horse in Europe - by Eric Mitchell

supacoo — Tue, 26 Aug 2014 20:22:42 GMT

Interesting results. And what about American spending in Europe? I suspect it's low. A graph of your findings would have been much appreciated and illustrative.

re: America's Horse in Europe - by Eric Mitchell

Warlaine — Tue, 26 Aug 2014 15:30:42 GMT

Amen Mr. Mitchell! I have seen the writing on the wall and apparently so have the Europeans. Why would I want to buy a horse when it can't race and win unless it's on Lasix or is not proven past it's 3 yr. old season. But in all fairness alot of their top breeding prospects have huge amounts of North American bloodlines. I just believe for multiple reasons we are not producing horses they want. I am firmly convinced you hit the nail on the head. Thank you.

re: Outside the Lines - by Eric Mitchell

Fred and Joan — Thu, 21 Aug 2014 16:07:04 GMT

We agree! Have owners and trainers aware that they can be tested at anytime, anywhere, for drugs WITHOUT notice and deal with them fairly but strictly for any violations found.

re: Slow Crawl to Uniformity - by Eric Mitchell

Bill Rinker — Tue, 12 Aug 2014 13:35:02 GMT

Thank you for the article Eric

re: Sea Change - By Eric Mitchell

Deltalady — Fri, 08 Aug 2014 16:23:37 GMT

A recent study says careers are not shortened if a horse bleeds below "do not race" levels: 7-29-14 - Study author Stephanie Preston, of the Maxwell H. Gluck Equine Research Center's Equine Soundness and Sports Medicine Program at the University of Kentucky, said her study indicates low level EIPH is common but does not impact performance or the horse's ability to stay in training.

www.bloodhorse.com/.../study-eiph-does-not-shorten-racing-careers

I don't think we would be having this discussion if since Lasix was introduced and accepted by all U.S. racing jurisdictions that those responsible for the health and welfare of the horses would have adopted a policy of using furosemide on only horses that showed some bleeding through the nose. What happened along the way is everyone (trainers mostly) figured out that the big weight loss gave the horse an advantage (like having the favorite in a race give a less accomplished horse 15 or 20 pounds in a handicap race!). No one wanted to be on a one-down position against another horse that was racing with Lasix, so they came up with the endoscope to pick up even the smallest amounts of blood to justify the use of the DRUG on ALL HORSES IN RACING. That is just insane, and everybody knows it! A drug with the huge amount of side effects as does Lasix should never have been approved to be used on ALL horses. The definition of a bleeder overseas has not changed (at least in most racing jurisdictions): a horse that bleeds through the nose. In a presentation in Saratoga preceding the Jockey Club Round Table a couple years ago, a noted veterinarian estimated that if Lasix were to be eliminated, it is likely that 0.2% of North American racehorses would be excluded from racing due to bleeding. I have no idea how many horses are in training in the U.S., but for argument's sake, let's just say 25,000. .2% amounts to 50 horses! Do we really need to treat all horses to help the few who could not race without it?

re: Sea Change - By Eric Mitchell

Bill Rinker — Wed, 06 Aug 2014 14:29:18 GMT

Highly contentious subject with viable credence on both sides of the fence. Whatever the out come, there will be many questions to debate, and many theories' to prove and dispute for sometime. Unfortunately, this subject matter seems somewhat taboo, with an opportunity for initiative somehow standing idle, but plainly before us. It seems obvious that there's more than meets the eye here, and understanding the demographics on why it is so popular may be the first place to begin work. For now, one cost affective analyses would be to start writing Lasix restricted races on each card. Maybe something like one that is Lasix free, one that is first time Lasix only and one that is only for documented bleeders at a predetermined level. If they would fill, (and with persistence perhaps they would) there is little doubt that it would give us some very valuable information for the future? Thanks for the update Eric.