A Bettor Derby Day - By Evan Hammonds

re: A Bettor Derby Day - By Evan Hammonds

Fran Loszynski — Thu, 19 May 2011 12:47:31 GMT

IOway: An offspring of Afleet Alex has never crowded any field. I appreciate your opinion but you may just see something extraordinary Preakness Day, the kick in speed of his dear old dad AFleet Alex is in those hoofs, from "Sway Away" You heard here.

re: A Bettor Derby Day - By Evan Hammonds

Mike in SB — Wed, 18 May 2011 19:40:37 GMT

I agree that the method for determining post position should be changed. I know the blind draw is how it is done in other races, but how many other races in the United States have 20 starters? Either limit the field to 14 like the Preakness, Belmont and all Breeders Cup races or find another way to determine post position that doesn't eliminate the best horses because of a poor draw.

re: A Bettor Derby Day - By Evan Hammonds

PomDeTerre — Wed, 18 May 2011 15:36:07 GMT

I agree that Sway Away got a pretty bad deal and that AEs should be allowed for this race. However, I cannot promote a field of more than 20- as another blogger so appropriately said- an accident waiting to happen. We've lost ArchArchArch and Comma in a filed of 19 this year- thankfully there was no "fall" to risk other horses or jocks.

On Post draws, however, I could not disagree with you more. EVERY race at every track in this country has a blind draw- it's just not done in public, but in the racing secretary's office. "Money Talks" should not be the standard to decide the starting gate placings.

In fact, that talking money should be the results of 3 year old graded stakes earnings period to determine the field. Top two year old are pushed too soon and rarely, in the past decade, have they carried that over at three. Uncle Mo, To Honor & Serve, Boys at Toscanova, Rogue Romance, Tapizar... need I name more? Had such a system for 3 yr old earnings been in place, Sway Away would have made the field, and Uncle Mo & his connections- rightfully so- would have been on the outside looking in. A revised policy such as this would further insure that the race is filled with the most talented 3 year old at the moment rather than an overcampaigned and outrun 2 year old from last year.

re: A Bettor Derby Day - By Evan Hammonds

bourbones — Wed, 18 May 2011 05:49:06 GMT

Count only 3yo Graded Earnings. Many of the 2yo graded winners are nowhere to be found come Derby Day, or, have distance limitations and are compromised as the races get longer and the true distance horses catch up developmentally.

re: A Bettor Derby Day - By Evan Hammonds

IOWay — Wed, 18 May 2011 02:02:20 GMT

Sway Away's predictament was the result of him not running a step in his last two races. Had he been included he would have just crowded things at the back of the pack.

re: A Bettor Derby Day - By Evan Hammonds

Pandy — Tue, 17 May 2011 23:26:25 GMT

I agree that they should change the rules regarding A.E.'s, or change the rules regarding scratches. Scratches should not be allowed unless approved by a track vet. As for the "blind" draw, otherwise known as an open draw, watch what you wish for. In harness racing they went to a "earnings dictated" draw for some major races, such as the Hambletonian, and it has been terrible. You don't actually want to make it easier for the biggest earner to win the race. One of the reasons why the Derby is so popular with fans and bettors is because it is so wide open. Most races have an open draw, and the Derby should too. Especially now that we have horses coming into the race with 4 starts. What have they really proven? Why should they have an advantage?

re: A Bettor Derby Day - By Evan Hammonds

7 1/2 Furlongs — Tue, 17 May 2011 23:05:19 GMT

Mr. Hammonds -

I agree with several of your readers. Go with the blind draw. That way, all entrants have equal opportunity for top post positions.

Besides, placing undue emphasis on graded earning might sway race tracks and owners to the "win early and often" mentality during the two-year-old season.

In the long run, I don't think that's the best thing for the horse.

re: A Bettor Derby Day - By Evan Hammonds

VP — Tue, 17 May 2011 20:16:57 GMT

This is horse racing not another sport. Luck of the draw is how it's done (like a flip of a coin is much better? lol). It's the 1st leg of the TC, it's not meant to be easy. I don't see why the best horses should be entitled to the best position when they are more talent anyway, that's kinda stacking the deck in their favor, don't you think? Shortening the field only adds to their advantage. There will always be upsets in racing. There have been Preakness & Belmont winners who weren't so great either (it's part of horse racing). Just my opion but if we make the field smaller & give the best horses the best pp's, what's next shortening the distance to make it easier to win(which I know has been considered awhile back). Sorry, I don't think it's such a good idea IMO.

re: A Bettor Derby Day - By Evan Hammonds

Ranagulzion — Tue, 17 May 2011 19:24:48 GMT

The idea of giving the best horses, that is, those with the highest graded stakes earnings the priority in post position selection seems very good indeed. I can see no downside to this. Knowing how important it is to not only get into the field but also get a desireable postposition might encourage stronger preps and more prep appearances by the leading contenders. This kind of tweaking of the system is certainly worthy of serious consideration.

re: A Bettor Derby Day - By Evan Hammonds

slee — Tue, 17 May 2011 18:59:55 GMT

A little point - geldings were originally allowed in the Belmont Stakes, from its inception until 1918. They even got a weight break (3 pounds, I think) from the colts. But then they were banned from the race and not re-instated until 1957.

The first gelding to win the Belmont was Creme Fraiche (1985).

source: NYRA

re: A Bettor Derby Day - By Evan Hammonds

Oldie — Tue, 17 May 2011 18:21:34 GMT

I agree with kincsem regarding the size of the field. I believe the blind draw is one of the things that keeps the race interesting. If I had a say in how horses qualified in, I would base it on distance and times - the fastest 7 at 1 1/8 mile, fastest 7 at 1 1/16 mile, fastest 6 at a mile, 1 AE from each group, with previously agreed standards for track, track type, conditions, etc. It might be more complicated than earnings, but it might also give us faster horses - it is a race, after all.

re: A Bettor Derby Day - By Evan Hammonds

smarie — Tue, 17 May 2011 17:52:16 GMT

I think the Derby fields should be limited to 14. These free-for-all fields are dangerous to both horse and jockey. Some statistics: Average field size by decade - 1950 - 2011.

1950-'59 - 14.5. 1960-'69 - 12.6. 1970-'79 - 14.9. 1980-'89 - 17.1. 1990-'99 - 16.7. '00-'09 - 18.7. '10-'11 - 19.5.

Our Triple Crown winners never had to battle 19 other horses to find the winner's circle. Are there horses in every Derby that really don't belong? Yes. As you can see, the fields are getting bigger by average all the time. By limiting the field to the best 3 year olds, we have a better chance of getting another Triple Crown winner IMO. The best horses should make for the best race. As it is now, too often the best horse cannot win because of all the incidents that occur in a 20 horse field. Determining which horses make the race could be done in several ways and there are good suggestions that have been put forth in the past. I believe that a smaller field would be much safer and would showcase the top 3 year olds much more effectively.

re: A Bettor Derby Day - By Evan Hammonds

Fran Loszynski — Tue, 17 May 2011 16:59:03 GMT

I personally don't feel graded earnings should determine if a horse will run in the Kentucky Derby. It is the biggest fan-rated race so then why aren't the horses that fans care for and love in the race. Sway Away is loved by many fans, his fan base were left out in the cold, why? he is an awesome horse and fans following his pedigree like Afleet Alex were disappointed. I think a racehorse should run in the Kentucky Derby who is running based on fan bias. After all if we were not on the rail, it would be a T.V. program alone with a cheering track piped in! Go Sway Away in the Preakness, show your stuff!

re: A Bettor Derby Day - By Evan Hammonds

kincsem — Tue, 17 May 2011 16:42:56 GMT

Unfortunately, because of the MONEY, the KD will not be limited to a 14 horse field until after there is some cataclysmic accident. Remember, non-horsemen, these horses are only three (some of them, not even that). They are very green, mentally and emotionally. Having a 20 horse cavalry charge year after year is only asking for trouble. You'd think the leaders of this sport could have just a little more wisdom.

re: A Bettor Derby Day - By Evan Hammonds

Giddyup — Tue, 17 May 2011 15:38:57 GMT

Basing the post position draw on graded earnings would create more problems than it would solve in my opinion. It would result in the tracks that host prep races being in a free-for-all battle - each upping the ante to attract the best field of contenders. As it is we have tracks creating stakes events specifically for highly regarded thoroughbreds ie Timely Writer/Uncle Mo. We will have an epidemic of that practice in the future if graded earnings are given undue weigh.

re: A Bettor Derby Day - By Evan Hammonds

Criminal Type — Tue, 17 May 2011 15:24:18 GMT

Evan, you can say "fuggetaboutit" but, that does't mean we will. In my opinion 20 horses is an accident looking for a place to happen. Every year I hold my breath during the Derby hoping all the horses (and riders) make it home safely. You can argue that none of the recent injuries had anything to do with the size of the field and you would probably be correct. All that being said, is it worth the risk to have a 20 horse field of young, some still very green, horses in a mile and a quarter free for all ? And when something goes wrong will they have to face the torture and scrutiny that Larry Jones endured after Eight Belles ? I agree a new system should be put into place for entrants to the Derby, but it is not going to be a simple task. Whatever is decided someone is going to be unhappy with it.

re: A Bettor Derby Day - By Evan Hammonds

Johnny — Tue, 17 May 2011 15:22:51 GMT

20 is two many why? Is their any bigger disadvantage then the 1 hole in the K Derby? Flat out unfair..

I also do not believe 2 year old stakes earnings should matter..

I believe this leads to more injuries to horses with owners looking to get a faster return and not allowing the horses muscles to develop fully.

re: A Bettor Derby Day - By Evan Hammonds

Rachel NH — Tue, 17 May 2011 14:32:36 GMT

Keep the blind draw, we're not football, it's part of horse racing. geesh.

The

"also eligible" list warrants study.

re: A Bettor Derby Day - By Evan Hammonds

ehammonds — Tue, 17 May 2011 14:16:44 GMT

Thanks for the comment palominolady, but for reducing the field to 14...fuggetaboutit. History has shown us that 20 seems about right.

re: A Bettor Derby Day - By Evan Hammonds

MoDPirate — Tue, 17 May 2011 14:06:34 GMT

I agree. The field of 20 horses is rather crowded as it is, which makes the derby more about the trip and the post position than it does the best horse/jockey. I think a field of 14-16 would make the derby much more exciting and competitive.

re: A Bettor Derby Day - By Evan Hammonds

palominolady — Tue, 17 May 2011 13:30:09 GMT

Here's another suggestion: instead of using graded stakes earnings, assign a point system whereby a horse earns points for finishing 1st, 2nd, or 3rd in a graded stakes, with a "sliding" scale of points depending on whether the race was Grade 1, 2, or 3. That will prevent a horse who won a Grade 3 stakes with an inflated purse from possibly displacing a more accomplished horse that has been running in higher class, more competitive races. We all know there are tracks throwing money into their less popular preps in an attempt to attract a big name, but that doesn't always work and they end up with starters that are below the elite class.

And let's limit the field to 14--even some of the best horses in Derby history have not been able to overcome the difficulties that can arise from a crowded field of 20.