Who's the Favorite?- by Eric Mitchell

re: Who's the Favorite?- by Eric Mitchell

Lise from Maine — Wed, 25 Apr 2012 15:30:58 GMT

There are too many great horses in the Kentucky Derby this year, and I am having some problems deciding who to bet on.

I like Gemologist but Todd Pletcher has a pattern of medicating his horses so I am not sure if I want to place my money on him. Gemologist is the son of Tiznow, and he is a great horse.

Sometimes I bet on the jockeys and not only the horses. Hopefully, there won't be any "deals behind the scenes" such as happened last year regarding John V. and Robby A. which turned me off. I have lost a great deal of respect of the trainers/owners in that deal. Taking Robby off his Derby horse at the last minute was just plain wrong in my opinion.

I like Hansen, Union Rags, Daddy Long Legs, and Bodemeiser, too.

A part of me would like to see Michael Matz win the Derby once again.

Thank you!

Lise from Maine

re: Who's the Favorite?- by Eric Mitchell

Ra1nmaker — Sun, 22 Apr 2012 02:12:56 GMT

Or, perhaps what was meant was "Bodemeister’s win at Oaklawn Park was impressive, but ([OTHER THAN ...not "/p/r/i/o/r/ /t/o/"] that race his only win out of four lifetime starts was in a maiden special weight..."

re: Who's the Favorite?- by Eric Mitchell

Ra1nmaker — Sun, 22 Apr 2012 00:17:42 GMT

Can we get a fact check? It's my understanding, Bode's Arky Derby win WAS his fourth lifetime start. If that is the case, you can't truthfull SAY "prior to that race his only win out of four lifetime starts was in a maiden special weight..." The knock against Bode therefore would read a more muted "Out Of THREE Lifetime Starts." ...That maiden win incidentally was sensational, by the way. I've had Bodemeister at the top of my list since mid February.

re: Who's the Favorite?- by Eric Mitchell

CharlieCigar — Sat, 21 Apr 2012 20:28:15 GMT

Dullahan is just fine and Desormeaux is not in his right mind as he also pulls horses up that are attempting to win the Triple Crown at the top of the stretch. Hmm?

re: Who's the Favorite?- by Eric Mitchell

CHIEF PICAWINNA — Sat, 21 Apr 2012 14:37:27 GMT

Hansen is a champion,but one thing his backers better hope for is that on the day of the race he doesn't expend so much nervous energy before the race.If he draws well inside of Bode,I think he will be the pacesetter.

re: Who's the Favorite?- by Eric Mitchell

Pedigree Ann — Sat, 21 Apr 2012 14:19:49 GMT

Who will be the favorite? Probably either Gemologist or Bodemeister. The key thing is the mass that creates the favorite is the general public, not regular followers of the sport. The public (lead by the press) will latch onto one thing - he's unbeaten! or look how much we won by in Arkansas! and ignore the subtleties.

How do you think Saarland went off as a near favorite? The press loved him because he was a gorgeous animal and 'always coming at the end', even though he rarely won. He had a gilt-edged pedigree, too; ended up being best at around a mile (2nd Met Mile).

We must bless the fun-crowd public, because they make the wonderful prices we often can profit greatly from on Derby Day.

re: Who's the Favorite?- by Eric Mitchell

TerriV — Sat, 21 Apr 2012 00:00:22 GMT

some really insightful comments here. Everyone agrees on one thing -this is a tough call and as long as all come home safe, it is going to be an amazing race. Hansen would look especially lovely in red roses!

re: Who's the Favorite?- by Eric Mitchell

Blind Luck — Fri, 20 Apr 2012 02:08:04 GMT

It sounds like I think like severl of you. I have always loved Union Rags and Mike Mantz, but, it seems he has too many excuses and in the Derby there is no time for excuses. I'm sentimental though, so he's in my think he can.

I loved Gemologist, especilly since he is a son of Tisnow and undefeated. He has to be in my really can do it list.

I think Bodemeister really showed his stuff. I think he could pull it off. Now that would be exciting.

Hansen, I don't know. He is a really nice horse but question if he can get the 1 1/4. I thought Union Rags should have gotten the 2 year old Championship. He should have won that breeders cup and almost did. He certainly went the longer way around.

I know a lot of you think creative cause could do it, and you are probably right. But I just don't feel it.

One thing we can all agree on is this is gonna be one "heck" of horse race and I am really looking forward to it.

May they all come home safely.

re: Who's the Favorite?- by Eric Mitchell

merrywriter — Fri, 20 Apr 2012 00:00:45 GMT

I always say the Derby is not to the best horse, but the one that can get out of the traffic - too may horses in the race make it a crap shoot. But this year I am going to go with my heart, and my heart is with Hansen. <3 <3 <3

re: Who's the Favorite?- by Eric Mitchell

iceman92 — Thu, 19 Apr 2012 23:31:03 GMT

i"ll have another is battle tested and lucky(he wins)rags looks like this years afleet alex(most talented but likely 2nd or 3rd (traffic problems). just pick a dieing speed horse to complete exacta and or triple box.

re: Who's the Favorite?- by Eric Mitchell

Bornahorseman — Thu, 19 Apr 2012 19:52:00 GMT

personally i think alpha wont run hes has some issues with his leg coming out of the wood not to mention hes a basket case

plenty of talent but i think the derby is to much for him

i also believe dullahan has an injury they arent talking about no jockey in their right mind pulls a horse to an abrubt halt right after the finish line throw both of those two out imo

re: Who's the Favorite?- by Eric Mitchell

Bornahorseman — Thu, 19 Apr 2012 13:49:06 GMT

HEY ANNE HANSEN HAS A BETTER RECORD THAN CREATIVE CAUSE GOING INTO THE DERBY

re: Who's the Favorite?- by Eric Mitchell

Deltalady — Wed, 18 Apr 2012 21:48:59 GMT

Bornahorseman, bingo! Wondered when someone would point this out about Union Rags, that he seems too dependent on a "good trip". Of course, all horses run better with a good trip, but a great horse will be the one that will overcome any bad trip issues. Think Afleet Alex in the 2005 Preakness, think Alysheba in the 1987 KY Derby. These horses got there in spite of bad trips. Maybe Union Rags comes through, maybe not. If he needs a good trip, though, then he better stay home from the Derby! JMHO!

re: Who's the Favorite?- by Eric Mitchell

tjconway — Wed, 18 Apr 2012 21:41:04 GMT

Furlongs,

Alpha's got NijinskyII, Alydar and Key to the Mint on his tail female line! Smells like 126 lbs. to me! He,as well as Gemologist, have 2 potential "moves" in a race. That'll come in handy!

re: Who's the Favorite?- by Eric Mitchell

Anne — Wed, 18 Apr 2012 17:08:46 GMT

Personally, I think the smart money stays with Creative Cause. From the BC to the SA Derby, no other horse has consistently run as well. And then of course there is the Derby King himself on Take Charge Indy. El Padrino? What a tough, tough race this will be. I'm just hoping everyone makes it home okay, b/c this will not be a strung out bunch.

re: Who's the Favorite?- by Eric Mitchell

Bornahorseman — Wed, 18 Apr 2012 16:41:33 GMT

quick thought

since the derby union rags has had one good trip now we are upping the ante to 20 and you think he will win

someone needs to tell that to the jockey better be outside sitting 4th my far turn if hes to have a shot imo

my thoughts another troubled trip for union rags

re: Who's the Favorite?- by Eric Mitchell

Bornahorseman — Wed, 18 Apr 2012 16:37:08 GMT

to ericwizeguy

ramon had no choice hansen was so rank in the post parade had he tried to rate he would have fought him the whole way ending up not hitting the board or possibly giving the horse a bad feeling thus prevent any chances for a derby win

i think he did th right thing

re: Who's the Favorite?- by Eric Mitchell

Bornahorseman — Wed, 18 Apr 2012 16:34:16 GMT

ok after much thought

im going with

daddy nose best

bodemeister

hansen

take charge indy

i think daddy nose best 1 looks the part

most experienced horse

wonderful stride

can be anywhere in the pack

Bodemeister wonderful display to win a late prep on dirt close to condiotions like churchill this time of the year is over the top impressive

Hansen if they get him like he was for the gotham he could do it to be that rank in the post parade for the blue grass and still perform was more than enough for me to respect him he has the best record going into the derby

Take charge indy one word his mama what a fighter she was and he is the splitting image of her His Florida derby win off a long layoff was over the top impressive

re: Who's the Favorite?- by Eric Mitchell

papillon — Wed, 18 Apr 2012 16:01:01 GMT

chief picawinna, you can find their actual birthdays by doing a workout search for each horse in DRF--it's free.

hansen turns 3 april 22, 2012--he's one of the youngest of the crop, which puts his success in perspective.

stellar jayne--hansen had no choice but to take the lead in the blue grass. he was the fastest horse in the race and had in inside post.

anyone who thought he'd be able to sit behind a bunch of horses in the bluegrass hadn't looked at those other horses figures--only heavy breathing had showed similar speed but was likely to bounce given how hard the spiral was for him.

also, ramon couldn't hold him at the break and risk having him pinched and bumped--when you are inside, you have to send or hold--you don't hold a speed horse, you hold a closer.

in the race at all hansen wasn't and he wasn't pulling--he was running well within himself and finished very strongly--much more strongly than the winner. he's just fast--on dirt, it would have been almost impossible for him to have been caught in the bluegrass, because he didn't fade, he was still running 12s.

the worst thing ramon could have done was choke him back to make people like you happy--not only would it have made hansen rank it likely would have made him swollow his tongue or flip his palette.

the only mistake ramon made was not floating him wide in the stretch so that he could see dullahan coming--had he seen him soon enough the outcome would have been different. if you watch the race closely in the last 70 yards, it looks pretty clear that both ramon and hansen thought they had it won--even dale romans said he thought hansen had it won until the 16th pole, and he had the benefit of the wide view and could see dullahan making his move.

it's funny that people think that hansen can't get a mile and quarter because he's a front runner, yet think bodemeister, who's also a front runner can.

people--even the "experts"--don't stop and think about things logically in horse racing. take the old "rules" about what it takes to win the derby--

1. can't be a gelding (this was true for so long because good horses were never gelded back in the day no matter how awful they behaved--it is not true now)

2. have to have had at least 3 preps (this died because of lasix--horses can't race frequently anymore--and the fact that so many horses are raced so lighlty now)

3. has to have raced at 2--this one is still around--why? because horses that raced at two often have already begun carrying real weight, so that they aren't shocked by an 8-10 lb jump on derby day (like bode will be) and because most 3 yos that didn't race at 2, didn't do so because of problems.

problems at 2 tend to be confirmational in nature and will plague the horse for its entire carreer.

the reason this rule still holds true is that many horses still race at two. thus the circumstances, unlike with the other two, hasn't changed.

since the conditions that created the 2 year old rule haven't changed, the rule is still valid.

re: Who's the Favorite?- by Eric Mitchell

Giddyup — Wed, 18 Apr 2012 14:51:45 GMT

Good point about Battaglia setting the odds based on public perception as opposed to his own evaluation. Almost all the public polls I have seen still have Union Rags rated as the favorite so I don't expect Mike to install another horse as the top choice.

re: Who's the Favorite?- by Eric Mitchell

Don from PA/DE — Wed, 18 Apr 2012 14:51:41 GMT

Moving target type of question, once post positions are established and entries are finalized this should be a very good betting race, I just continue to hope that my top selection "Gemologist" will not be favored and that his current odds will continue to grow interest from the future surplus jackpot that will await me if he runs the race that I believe he will. My guess will be that Union Rags will go off at post being slight favorite. Enjoy the next two weeks as the dynamics will sparkle up...

re: Who's the Favorite?- by Eric Mitchell

Pedigree Ann — Wed, 18 Apr 2012 14:31:29 GMT

S.J. said -

"However, I do wonder what in the world Ramon Dominguez was thinking taking Hansen out to the lead all the way when his previous race showed he could rate and wait. I think Ramon was stupid or over confident and blew for Hansen."

Did you see Hansen in the Post Parade and coming to the gate? The horse was fidgeting and jibing, on edge, ready to GO. If a horse wants to go to the lead, it is counter-productive for a jock to wrestle him back to follow orders. Not everything a horse does during a race is under the jock's control.

re: Who's the Favorite?- by Eric Mitchell

ksweatman9 — Wed, 18 Apr 2012 13:01:32 GMT

Glad to know Stellar that I'm not the only one concerned about Hansen's running style. However, I don't hold a bias against milers, Caleb's Posse and Jackson Bend are 2 of my favorite horses, and I adore Goldikova. Hansen is the pony I'm pulling for to win the Derby, but a wire to wire win at Churchill is against all odds, not entirely impossible, but certainly not likely.

re: Who's the Favorite?- by Eric Mitchell

CHIEF PICAWINNA — Wed, 18 Apr 2012 12:31:52 GMT

Horseplayers anyone that knows the answer especially the blogmaster post it on here if possible.Can you post the actual birthday of the top twenty on the Kentucky Derby earnings list?

re: Who's the Favorite?- by Eric Mitchell

furlongs — Wed, 18 Apr 2012 11:09:28 GMT

If anyone wins the Triple Crown it will be Bodemeister or Creative Cause those two horses look to be the most talented (Bode) and/or seasoned (CC). I think Union Rags is not seasoned enough this year to win the roses but has a really good chance winning the Preakness after he comes up short in the Derby. Just my view but anymore anyone can win the Ky Derby after seeing Mine that Bird winning it! lol